저자: Red'sRoundup채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 게임스탑(GME)은 마이클 버리의 베팅이 옳았다는 전제 아래 중장기 보유를 권하는 낙관적 영상이다. 사업 개요: 게임스탑은 세계 최대 비디오게임 전문 소매점으로, 콘솔·하드웨어 판매가 매출의 대부분을 차지한다. 버리는 포트폴리오의 약 13%(약 1,100~1,200만 달러)를 GME 주식으로 보유 중이다. 재무 지표: 시가총액 약 9억 달러, 기업가치 약 10억 달러, PSR 0.17, 현금/부채 비율 0.63. 최근 3개월 주가는 230% 상승해 5달러대에서 13.3달러 부근까지 올랐다. 근거 1 - 마이크로소프트 제휴: MS365 소프트웨어, 서피스 태블릿, 클라우드 기반 재고·판매 솔루션을 제공받는다. 신규 Xbox 출시와 맞물려 매장 판매 증가가 기대된다. 근거 1-2 - 디지털 매출 배분: MS가 Xbox 디지털 매출의 1~10%를 게임스탑에 배분할 것으로 보며, 원가 없는 고마진 매출이 될 것이라고 주장한다. 근거 2 - 숏 스퀴즈: 공매도 잔고가 발행주식수를 초과한다고 주장하며, 주가 급등 시 숏 커버링이 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 다만 이 역시 진행자의 해석이다. 근거 3 - 라이언 코언 지분: 츄이(Chewy) 창업자 라이언 코언이 약 10% 지분을 취득했다. 코언은 게임스탑 매장을 물류 거점으로 활용해 아마존보다 빠른 배송을 목표로 한다고 밝힌 것으로 소개된다. 버리 등 주요 투자자 합산 지분은 약 33%로 언급된다. 밸류에이션: PSR 0.5(기준) 적용 시 주당 약 43달러, 0.7(강세, 업종 평균 0.71 근거) 시 약 60달러, 0.1(약세) 시 약 8달러로 제시. 5~10년 장기 기준 60달러 도달 가능성을 언급한다. 리스크: 약세 시나리오에서도 손실은 제한적이라고 보지만, 턴어라운드 실행 여부에 대한 투자자 본인의 검토를 권한다. 진행자는 기보유자에게 홀딩을, 신규 투자자에게는 추가 조사를 권했다. 출연자 전망: 영상은 1~3개월 단기 방향보다 5~10년 장기 관점에서 60달러 상승 가능성을 강조한다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to red stocks everyone in this video we're going to be looking at game stop and specifically why michael bury was right in his big bet on gamestop i'm going to give you three reasons why he was right as well as a valuation and target price for the stock let's get right into it now we're going to go over a brief overview of gamestop ticker symbol gme gamestop is the biggest video game retailer in the world specialty video game retailer that is uh they sell video game products memorabilia and hardware um importantly and they have locations around the united states most prominently so their biggest items are in fact the the hardware items the playstations the xbox and the nintendo switches that's where they make a majority of their revenue as of right now so that's a brief overview let's take a look at where michael berry holds this position in his portfolio so currently he owns it as 13 of his whole holdings of his whole stock holdings that is this is different than his options portfolio go watch my videos on his options portfolio if you want to see that so gamestop is 13.14 percent totaling over 11 million almost 12 million dollars of gamestop in that holding position so let's take a look here at the market cap and enterprise value as well as a recent three month chart of gamestop so we can see a little bit of an overview of what's been going on so we see here that the market cap is almost 900 million this is probably going to be changing by the time you watch the video because as you can see the stock price has been fairly volatile going up 20 percent in some cases in one day and here we have the enterprise value where it's it's about a billion dollars depending on on when you when you take a look at this pick that includes debt and market cap as well as minority interest which they don't have much of so price to sales here very low at 0.17 and then i thought i would include this here just to give you a little bit of an insight as to where they are financially um 0.63 cash to debt so for every dollar of debt they have 63 cents of cash on their balance sheet so that's going to be important now we're going to get into a few reasons why gamestop stock price has appreciated over 230 percent in the past three months going from under five dollars a share to over 13 dollars and 30 cents a share and almost hitting 15 who knows when you're watching it it could be up to 20.
who knows so let's get right into it the first major reason is the microsoft relationship and microsoft deal that gamestop just entered into so microsoft is going to be providing front end and back-end solutions to gamestop in the form of microsoft 365 so that's going to be in their stores as a software solution and then also providing them with surface tablets to for their sales people and associates to uh to run the stores more efficiently and then on top of that some back end software with cloud computing to help improve their inventory and uh sales and techniques so the other reason is and the other part of this is the boost to xbox product offerings with the new line of xboxes and the former line of the legacy xboxes they're going to be having some key product offerings and hardware and accessories of these new xboxes so this is hopefully going to boost in-store sales for gamestop as well as really maintain a good good partnership between microsoft and gamestop so this could be a key coming up through the new console cycle of microsoft and gamestop so the other key point here the main point in my opinion that a lot of people are also catching on to is that microsoft will give gamestop a share of xbox's digital revenue these are just a couple of the headlines this is pretty much the gist of it and expect to see a one to ten percent cut of digital revenues coming gamestops way so this is going to be a very big deal with the new consoles coming out now and gamestop is actually going to be seeing a cut of the new game revenue now you might think that this is a little bit far-fetched like why would microsoft ever do that microsoft knows what they're doing they're an advanced company one of the biggest companies they know that if they can partner with gamestop they're going to be able to get ahead in the console battle between them and the playstation and hopefully come out on top because last time with the xbox one they didn't do so well so now hopefully the microsoft xbox console is going to do even better because of their partnership with gamestop and this is going to give a massive boost to gamestop's bottom line revenue because if we look at this this is basically like a royalty they're going to be no expenses associated with this line of revenue that's that's really important to notice any time you can get a revenue stream that is very high margins that's a really good thing for a business and we see that right now with gamestop introducing a new line of digital revenues next we have the continuing short squeeze of the game stop stock so we're going to do a quick overview of what selling short is and just the overview of that process and it's going to give us an insight into the coming short squeeze in gamestop so here we have the first step is you borrow the short seller borrows the stock from the broker next the short seller sells the stock on the market and then number three when they're going to close their short position they repurchase the stock from the market and then they return the stock to the broker that they initially borrowed now this is important because right now most of the the stock and gamestop is actually held short and it's being sold to the market and it hasn't been purchased back yet and this is going to be important to notice in this example this is not gamestop this is a generic stock that i chose that experienced a short squeeze we see here that when stocks have a high short interest they go down they go down they go down until a certain point where there's the short squeeze and the short squeeze is when essentially the shorts have to cover their short position like we saw they have to buy back their shares from the market so then they can give them back to the broker so we see here they buy back the shares that's bidding the stock price up it goes up up up up and then it just continues to go up it can go up like many times in some cases and we've seen that in gamestop with the stock has gone up over 200 percent in the past three months so this is a continuing short squeeze and we're going to see why here the short squeeze is is poised to continue so this is from october 13th um that this is data from that point we see the short interest in game stop actually exceeds the shares outstanding so the way that happens is that we saw in that diagram here we're going to go back that the the short seller borrows the stock from the broker and then they sell the stock to the market well what happens is the market can then give the stock back to the broker who then can sell it to the who then can lend it to the short seller again so the the same stock might be sold short by two different people that's that's a simple oversimplified way to think about it that's not exactly how it works but that's pretty much how it works so we see here that that the short interest in game stop is much higher than even the shares outstanding this makes gamestop the most shorted stock on the entire stock exchange on either of the american stock exchanges that's that's very very crazy and the best performing stocks and the start of the corona virus crisis are not the best but a cohort of them has actually been the most shorted stock so the most shorted stocks have actually outperformed and that's the past few weeks and months so moving on we have uh the gamestop chart we see this is the short squeeze that we were talking about so here we have the high high short interest down at the bottom trading at around four dollars and then the short squeeze happens a little bit of good news the investors start becoming a little bit more bullish and earnings positive earnings report comes out and the stock skyrockets so that's what we're seeing now but we still have a long way to go in terms of the short squeeze many short sellers need to still cover their shorts so the the price of 13 it could very well go up because the short sellers have a very short time to cover because of margin calls and other requirements so the last major catalyst is from a massive ownership stake from this guy ryan cohen so he's the founder of chewie this is actually a pet service a retail pet service that is an online retailer that sends pet items to con direct to consumers from online so he just took a massive stake in gamestop a 10 ownership he just took and this is the quote that he made on gamestop right after his ownership stake was announced rather than just offering video games and a smattering of toys clothing and accessories gamestop's website would sell a wide range of merchandise and ship it to customers more quickly so the way he wants to do that is by leveraging gamestop's existing retail base so their existing stores to essentially use them as many warehouses in some cases so hold merchandise there and then more efficiently than even amazon send that out to customers and he's also on record as saying that he wants gamestop to actually beat amazon in terms of shipping time which is very impressive because if you know amazon with amazon prime they have two day shipping that's very quick he wants to beat that for gamestop in the video game space and i think that's possible and if there's one guy in the world that knows about um specialty retail it's this guy and he just took a 10 10 percent ownership stake and he's gonna be very involved in the running of the company not to mention a whole host of other uh great well-known investors like michael berry and a number of others who have massive stakes in the company i think it adds up to something like 33 percent at this point so that's going to be important to note that with these super investors and specialty investors there's going to be a great incentive for the management team to apply themselves and work work quickly so here's a comparison between the capital expenditures of gamestop and chewy the company he founded just showing you that they're they're pretty similar businesses that require about the same capital expenditures to maintain and that he he knows something about each of them probably because they are similar business models so uh that's interesting now for the last section with the target price and what i think is going to happen we're going to look at three different scenarios well really four we're going to look at the current value a base case a bowl case and a bare case and i'm going to have a little bit of data to back up each of those different cases so i'm doing this valuation based off of price to sales yes that's a little bit basic but i think it works for this case because of a few reasons and i don't want to to give you in the impression that this is going to be a full discounted cash flow this is just a basic basic valuation so on the base case we're looking at a price to sales of 0.5 and that's going to give us a price per share of around 43 dollars per share if the current amount of shares outstanding continues into perpetuity and then the bull case is going to be a price to sales of 0.7 with a price of sixty dollars per share and then the bear case is going to be a price to sales of point one with eight dollars per share and this all seems very interesting considering the current price of around thirteen dollars a share how am i getting these different numbers why am i choosing point five price sales point seven price of sales here's the main reason why i have this source here which is the game stop price to sales ratio over time we can see it's gone up as far as 1.5 times sales all the way crashing down to the financial crisis to under 0.5 but it's hovered really around that 0.5 mark gone up to 0.7 there and it's really just been in a big down climb decline since 2008 so we can see that there's been a long time around the 0.5 it's hit the 0.7 but really it's in the big decline so that's why i have the base case at around point five the bowl case at around point seven and the bare case at point one where it's been really low recently at that point one level so these are the three cases that i see and i also i went and did some more research and i found that the average price to sales for retail special lines which is the industry that gamestop is in is actually a .71 so i use that as the marker for my high bare i mean my high bowl case i decided i would make it that number as well because that is the average and i'll just decide to keep a margin of safety there so conservatively i think into the long run five ten years from now gamestop could be trading at sixty dollars per share if they execute the plans of ryan cohen the founder of chewie that he has for the online retailing and the partnership with microsoft if that goes well it could very well trade up to 60 dollars per share whereas the bear case it really isn't going to go down much so let's say you hold gamestop for five years and it just sort of goes nowhere that's not going to really be that big of a loss compared to the potential gain you could have had if you held on to gamestop that's a massive game from 13 30 to 60 even from current prices so that's why i think that you might be well off to hold gamestop for now if you're a current holder and do some more research if you aren't a holder right now but you're thinking about it i would do some research into what you think the odds are that they're going to be able to follow through with their turnaround so thank you for watching be sure to subscribe if you want to see more and like and comment and tell me what you think thanks for watching
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