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hello fellow Rebel capitals hope you're well so I just saw an article on CNBC talking about Warren Buffett he just had his big annual meeting and he is as bearish as he has ever been and this is not coming from George gamut this is coming from a gentleman that knows him well and it seems like he's been a a large investor in Berkshire hathway for many many years let's go right over to this clip from CNBC talking about you know what Warren Buffett is doing right now and how this gentleman can tell that he's as beish bearish as he has ever been and then I'm going to go over some charts and then we can connect some dots to determine why he is so bearish again this isn't George gamon talking this is Warren Buffett For Heaven's Sake so let's get right over to CNBC and check this out uh let's here we go this is the gentleman Bill SME and he has absolutely no interest in offending people but if you look at what he's doing he is as bearish as he ever gets I read right between the lines right from the beginning at the meeting on Saturday I was there sitting in the audience and I thought okay huge cash position trimmed as Apple position uh uh it it isn't is's he's nibbling on something below the surface they haven't announced yet but basically he is waiting until the next 40% decline in the stock market to apply massive amounts of capital at bargain prices in things that are large enough to be meaningful to this company at the size it is now huh Josh that reminds me of someone else we know that's holding a big cash position right now just wait waiting for the stock market to go down by 40% so we can buy things when they're cheap who who is that guy I know there's someone we know that is employing that exact same strategy and I I think he is holding his cash position in t bills rolling that over and then keeping about 10% in Gold if the name comes to me I I'll let you guys know that's me by the way so so you just used the phrase this is as bearish I believe you said as I have ever seen him should is is that really the right characterization or is it rather that he thinks the market is too highly priced uh for him to go in in a big way and put fresh Capital to work what's the difference in other words is it so much a bearish call as it is a a rejection of the idea that this is an opportunistic time to best Tyler you have asked a great question so I'm going to answer this in kind of an odd way in 1969 he pivoted from being primarily a quantitative Ben Graham value guy to being more of a Charlie Munger qualitative guy right get a reasonable price on a great company and he said back in 6768 69 that the the quantity ative ideas that he used to like to buy were combed and recomed that was his letter to Partners and and this year this last year he he he said that that the kind of things that we would like to do have been endlessly picked over so that that is code for we think the Market's expensive we're not any hurry we're going to wait and and remember he's talked constantly for 10 to 15 years that the bigger Brookshire gets the more it limits their opportunities right so really to to to have very large opportunities for large deployments of that $200 billion you've got to have the entire Market get into very difficult circumstances I don't okay so again we go back to kind of the 40 he's on the sidelines right now he might not be expecting the world to come to an end but he doesn't see a lot of opportunities so he thinks there's a better probability that the market goes down substantially and that creates some companies that are good and cheap and then he can go ahead and pull the trigger take action you know what's interesting I got to switch up the screen share guys to go over to some charts but uh as most of you know I've been spending a lot of time in St Barts really trying to learn from some of the greats there and some of the quite frankly some of the best hedge fund managers that we have seen over the past about 30 40 years and one of the things that they told me is never buy or sell a company based strictly on valuation never so never ever ever short something just because it's too expensive or never ever buy something just because it's quote unquote cheap there always has to be some sort of catalyst or the market has to be off sides or there's got to be panic there's got to be hysteria and those are the things that Jim Rogers talks about you know we go back to 2020 and you say well George you were buying things hand over fist back then especially Commodities and that is absolutely true so what was the Catalyst the Catalyst there was that the market was just in a massive panic I mean you guys remember that well and then we fast forward if we want the flip side of that coin no pun intended and we look at some of the cryptocurrencies in 2021 when did they top out the beginning 2022 something like that and this was not panic this was the opposite this was hysteria so that tells you that it's probably not a good time to buy so you've got to look at the emotional or the psychological factors that go into the market along with all these other variables but it can't be just because it's cheap or just because it's expensive and I think that's along the lines of what this gentleman was saying and what he's interpreting by Warren Buffett's actions the one thing he said he says when you looking at Buffett you you well like a lot of people you got to look at what they do not at what they say so that's when he was talking about his huge cash position and all these other things that he's actually doing and by the way I don't know if they mentioned it in that video but he really paired back his position in apple the other day while saying that it's a fantastic company so okay if it's that great of a company then he's probably pairing that position back because he's incredibly bearish on the macroeconomic factors that are involved I mean he's obviously looking at the yield curve as well he's talking to the banksters I if there's any Financial Insider in the world today it's obviously Warren Buffett so think about all the Insider Intel that he gets I'm not saying it's illegal but he's sitting there talking to Jamie Diamond he's talking to all these huge corporate uh CEOs around the world and they're likely telling him that hey as far as we can see the stuff's hitting the fan now that we got the screen share switched up here let's go over to some of the headlines that I'm sure Warren Buffett is is seeing on a daily basis so in addition to The Insider Intel that you're not seeing on Zero Hedge that you're not seeing on CNBC you're not seeing on Bloomberg but here is just uh robl shares drop more than 20% this company Cuts annual bookies these are just some stories that I saw from the CNBC homepage today just today uh mutter muted player spending I I'm assuming this is an online video game uh you've got arm and this is a chip designer uh same exact thing they came out announced earnings but they said that the revenue guidance is going to be lower lackluster is what they're calling it we go over to Warner Brothers uh this is from today as well uh Miss's first quarter estimate despite streaming growth and then we were covering this story last week uh the pullback from the consumer long predicted consumer pullback finally hits restaurants like Starbucks KFC McDonald Donald's I know we've been hearing stuff like this from Target as well so this is coming to kind of like a crescendo here with uh all of these entities not all but a lot of these entities that are representative of what's happening in the real economy and the consumer they're looking out at the future and they're saying yeah that we see some storm clouds but it doesn't end there I just did a quick Google search and you guys can see what I looked up companies that reported lower Revenue guidance we've got meta got AMD we just talked about meta again we've got weak Revenue growth soft guidance send Dropbox shares L now that was uh back in February here is one from a couple weeks ago US Bank Corp earnings company lowers 2024 guidance for both net interest income and expense uh I mean broadcom edges lower uh although they had strong earnings okay so that's a little bit different but here is uh Estee Lauder and I would say that they're more representative of what's happening in the real economy this from one week ago a headwinds will hurt sales and this sends the stock lower so I mean you can go on and and Google and you can find you know tens of maybe hundreds of these types of stories where businesses are although they might be doing okay now they're saying saying the future doesn't look that good and you know I was listening to my good buddy Adam tagert the other day on podcast that he did with David Rosenberg and they are talking about the beige book this is something that we've discussed on this channel many many times and Dave reads every single Brown book or beige book that comes out and he was saying that he can you can almost see the narrative at the FED really shifting as far as the economic Outlook for 2024 and 2025 by the anecdotal evidence they're collecting with the surveys that are aggregated into this beige book but that's not all uh this just came out today as well we got weekly jobless claims jumped to 231,000 the highest since August I won't go into the article but just read the key talking points here uh let's see jobless claims totaled seasonally adjusted 231 for the week uh it's up 22,000 from the week before jobless claims total to seasonal adjusted oh that's up yeah so that's up the highest level since August and it's up 22,000 from just last week continuing claims which run a week behind increased 1.78 million up 177,000 from the previous week and if you guys remember just uh a week or so ago we had the headline uh jobs numbers come out that massively disappointed to the downside that's not all let's look at this article from Reuters US Banks and this is just from a couple days ago US Banks repeat weaker loan demand according to a Fed survey and this makes a lot of sense when you look at the most recent report from the New York fed talking about household debt and Credit Now there uh q1 report should be coming out very soon so I'm going to track that we'll go over that on this channel but this is Q4 of 2023 and we can already see it starting to get really really bad and I can't imagine that it's gotten better I would assume my base case would be that it's gotten worse so here you go total household debt Rose by 212 billion but the important part here is the amount of delinquencies uh that they've been seeing more specifically in auto loan balances this Rose by 12 billion uh to 1.64 uh so and the delinquency transition rates increased for all debt types except for student those I wonder why I wonder why because Joe Biden is forgiving he's forgiving all the delinquent student loans so wow that really imagine that you know if you forgive all the delinquent student loans surprise surprise there's no more delinquencies oh but what this is saying is that uh the delinquency transition rates increased for all debt types okay got it and they show the chart here this is total balance of household debt and let me go back to the prior link here this was what I was reading I think this gives us a few more details they say credit card and autol Loan transition into delinquency are still Rising above prepandemic levels that's key said Wilbert Vander CLA economic research adviser at the New York fed this signals increased finan cial stress especially among younger and lower income households which is interesting because if you guys remember the report from the Atlanta fed that we reference on this channel all the time the young people have experienced the highest wage growth so they've been the least impacted by Consumer Price inflation in fact they've probably benefited from Consumer Price inflation but yet now even this demographic is feeling Financial stress so when you combine all of these factors together and then you look at things like the yield curve we can look at the near turn forward spread and this is the curve that the FED pays most attention to and we can see that that's still massively inverted that this hasn't changed so when you combine all of these things together and you look at what Warren Buffett is doing it makes a lot of sense and the last thing that I'd point out is just simply the buffet indicator itself and when this thing gets above 150% it it's it's not good right things aren't uh cheap now again we're not going to buy them just because they're cheap or sell them just because they're expensive but you combine this with everything else and this gives you a a a bigger picture as to what the prob abilities are moving forward and we can see the buffet indicator is at 182% right now and boy oh boy I mean if you use this and just bought when it was under just call it the mean you're doing pretty well but again that was at a time when there was Panic look at how long the buffet indicator was under this level which again if you go back and look at history it still would have been a really good time to buy but the reason you have this kind of rubber band effect this Snapback as quick as you did right here during the surve of sickness or the GFC is because you had emotion a lot of emotion involved in the decision making which led to the market drop to begin with and I think that's probably what Warren Buffett sees on the horiz and that's why he is taking the actions that he is taking right now which would lead this person that knows him well to the conclusion that he is the most bearish he has ever been all right guys enjoy the rest of your afternoon as always make sure that you're standing up for Freedom Liberty free market capitalism you got to get your tickets to Rebel capitalist live it's going to be the best event the best conference we've done absolutely 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