저자: NickTrain · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 특정 종목·지수의 단기 가격 예측은 없고, 장기 투자 철학(좋은 제품·정보/엔터 수요·시장 비관론 활용)을 강조한 인터뷰. 회사 현황: Lindsell Train은 창업 20년 된 부티크 운용사로, 운용 전략이 극히 제한적(영국·일본·글로벌 3개 전략)이라 상관관계가 높고 '원트릭 포니' 리스크가 있다고 인정함. 투자 3대 아이디어: ①맛이 좋은 제품을 만드는 기업에 투자 가치 있음(기술이 소비 선호를 바꾸기 어려움) ②사람들은 정보·엔터테인먼트 소비를 멈추지 않음 ③투자자(전문가 포함)가 주식시장 전망을 지나치게 비관적으로 봐서 기회가 생김. 시장이 장기적으로 좋은 성과를 낼 것이라고 봄. 후계 구도: 지난 7~8년간 젊은 인재 5명을 채용했고, 그중 James Bullock이 이미 포트폴리오 매니저로 글로벌 펀드를 함께 운용 중이며 후계 교체 능력에 자신감을 표명. 다만 서두를 필요는 없다고 함. 2019년 회고: 우드포드 펀드 붕괴 여파와 주요 브로커 추천 목록 제외 등 어려움이 있었으나, 회사 전략 중 2개가 벤치마크를 상회했고 일본 전략은 호조, 글로벌 전략도 약 20% 성장. 투자 접근법 변경은 없다고 밝힘. 종목 관련 언급: 특정 종목 매수·매도 언급은 없음. 두 전략(영국·글로벌) 간 보유 종목이 30% 이상 겹친다고 설명. 투자 조언: 투자자는 운용사·전략을 분산하라고 권고. 시장을 이기려면 소수의 잘 아는 아이디어에 깊이 확신을 갖는 것이 중요하며, 하락장에서 버티는 정신력이 핵심이라고 강조.
다듬은 글
With me today is Nick Train, who manages a number of well-known and very popular funds and trusts. Congratulations, Nick. Lee, hello. Nice to see you. Thank you for inviting me. Like 2020, this is an important year for you and Michael Lindsell. It's been almost 20 years since you founded Lindsell Train.
So do these 20 years feel like it? Of course, it feels like 20 years. But to us personally, the business still feels like a startup. You know, we still feel that drive, that energy that is inherent in building a small business. By the way, I just have to say to anyone who is planning to take a step towards opening their own business in any field: from our point of view, I would say— take action, because it makes life much more valuable.
But a lot has changed since the beginning of this century. Have you changed your approach to investing? Has anything changed in this regard? Have you learned any lessons about approach and strategy? Is everything the same now as it was at the very beginning? I would say that fundamentally there is almost no change in our approach to investment challenges .
And perhaps one way to illustrate this is to point out that many of our original investment ideas, the companies we invested in 19 years ago, still form the basis of our investment portfolios. I think this really demonstrates a very strategic approach to understanding investment objectives. I understand what you're saying: the world has changed in the last 20 years, especially due to technological advances, but for us there are three fundamental ideas that hold our portfolios together.
They were relevant 20 years ago, they work today, and I personally believe that these three ideas will be profitable in the next 20 years. And if you'll allow me, I'll briefly outline these three big strategic ideas. First: if a company produces a product that tastes good— literally, if the product tastes good— it's worth investing in that business.
I don't think technology will ever be able to make a product that consumers enjoy eating or drinking less appealing. The second important theme that defines the formation of our portfolio is that people will never get tired of receiving information or entertainment. And again , this is an idea that has led to many of the successful investments that we have in our portfolios.
The final idea is that in general we consider investors, including professionals, to be too pessimistic about the prospects of the stock market. You know as well as I do , you communicate with many fund managers. Everyone keeps saying, "Well, you know, the markets look expensive, and there's uncertainty right now ." But this caution, this pessimism about the markets, creates an opportunity for us to invest in businesses that thrive when the markets thrive.
Because over time, trust me, the stock markets will perform well. OK. We'll talk more about this a little later. Okay. And so far, your funds have been in existence for 20 years, and they have been phenomenally successful. As a fund manager, you are widely respected in the industry. Investors continue to support your strategy with their own funds.
But probably the question that a lot of people are asking is: How long do you plan to keep doing this? You seem enthusiastic , but will we be talking to Nick Train in 20 years , or are you grooming a successor? In short, what happens when you decide to retire? Yes, well, it's kind of you to ask the question that way .
I think this is very important for me . It is very important for Michael Lindsell and me to convey the real state of our business. I just mentioned, we still see ourselves in a sense as a startup, you know? We are a so-called boutique investment management company. We only do a very limited number of things.
We manage a limited number of funds. Our work uses a limited number of investment ideas. If you wanted to be cruel, you could say that Lindsell Train is a kind of " one-trick horse," you know ? We do one thing and try to do it as best as possible. But we have to recognize, and we want investors to understand, that this means there are risks, you know?
I mean, we only do one thing. Maybe what we do will someday go out of fashion or lose favor. And if that happens, it will be a problem for us because we are not going to change. So, what I want to say is that we don't think we've solved the investment problem, we're just doing one thing among a wide variety of investment approaches.
What can I say, uh, about your question about longevity, I think it was Lou Reed. It seems that it was Lou Reed who said in one of his little-known songs : "I'm like a fine wine. I get better with age." Yes? And as trite as it may sound, I truly believe that investing is one of those human activities where you get better with age .
You will definitely learn more and can definitely benefit from the experience of different market cycles or the history of different companies. So Mike and I truly believe and sincerely hope that we can still continue to improve. And as long as we can, we believe we should continue to work. But do you have a succession plan?
Have you ever sat down together and thought that, you know, someday we'll have to hand over the reins to someone else? Well, over the last seven or eight years, we've hired five very, very smart young people to help us with our investment work, and we're pleased with the progress they've made. One of them is already a full-fledged portfolio manager .
This is James Bullock. He is working with Mike and me on our global fund, and we have full confidence that James and his colleagues will be able to replace us. We're just in no hurry to make it happen. It's not...I mean, we've been talking about your success for 20 years, but it hasn't been all that smooth sailing.
I think last year was quite difficult. I mean, you were unwittingly caught in the middle of the fallout from the Neil Woodford fund collapse , and two of your funds were removed from a major broker's best-of list. This was done to avoid a conflict of interest. Has this affected your investment style at all?
I mean, in particular, the creation of large stakes in individual businesses, and did you have any emotional reaction, besides, in fact, the business approach, the investment approach. So, Well, I mean, you say 2019 was a difficult year. It's been a tough year for the whole industry, no doubt partly because of some of the, you know, unfortunate events that you mentioned, but I have to say it's been a pretty good year for Lindsell Train Limited .
We are running three strategies, and two of them have successfully outperformed their benchmarks. Um, the UK strategy—that's my area of responsibility, but our Japanese strategy worked very well last year . Globally, it may be a little worse, but it still grew by almost 20%. So we didn't feel, you know, when we summed up 2019, that it was that difficult.
Um, the direct answer to your question is: no, we didn't feel the need or even the temptation to change our approach to portfolio formation, our approach to investment challenges. The truth is that great companies are rare. And the opportunity to invest in a great company at a great price is even rarer, right?
And this means, in our opinion, that it is extremely important to rely on your own judgment. When you come across such rare opportunities, it is important if you want to outperform the market and create value for customers to have great positions. This has been a hallmark of our investment approach for the past 20 years, and will continue to be so .
So, no changes. Some industry professionals have argued, looking back on the past year, particularly the Woodford incident, that a lack of internal discussions let Neil down. So are your decisions questioned in Lindsell Train? I mean, of course you have the final say, but is there any discussion? You know, that's a very interesting question, thank you for asking it.
Also on this: there is one piece of market wisdom that we strongly disagree with. It's market wisdom that says you can never fall in love with your investments. We deeply disagree with this. We believe it is extremely important to fall in love with or have a deep commitment— both intellectual and, if you like, emotional—to the ideas you put into your investment portfolio.
How else are you going to get through it all, because any company you invest in will have tough times? How can you persevere against all odds and survive the inevitable downturns to get the full potential from your investment? So, while I understand your question—are we being criticized enough—it's also important to say that excessive criticism, if it leads to excessive activity or arguments within the team, can also be harmful.
But, I think, I think the most obvious, the most powerful challenge for any investor, the one that you can't escape, is the challenge of the market, right? The market keeps telling you, "Nick, you're an idiot." You know, when something, when something is going downhill. Trust me, you will never, ever be able to turn your back on this.
This always hurts the soul. And for me, that's the highest level of discipline in this business— trying, trying to convince yourself that you have an understanding that's better than average. What is the overlap between the strategies under the Lindsell Train umbrella? I mean, do you consider high correlation a risk for strategies?
In a sense, the correlation between the three strategies that we have—global, British, and Japanese—in a sense, it's 100%. Yes? Because all three are guided by the same set of investment principles. All three generally invest in similar industries, guided by similar investment ideas. Um, well, of course, the Japanese fund looks very different compared to the British one, as there are no British stocks in our Japanese fund.
Um, but there is a real overlap in stocks between the UK and global funds. Probably more than 30% of the assets of both funds overlap. So, actually, practically speaking, yes, there is an overlap between the mandates. And if you want a straight answer, does this increase the risk for the company? Yes, I think so .
But I, I want to go back to what I told you earlier. Um, I said in a somewhat disparaging tone that we were "monotonous." And you know, that can be both good and bad . We want to be the best at the one or two things we think we are good at. Because we think it gives our investors a chance to make exceptional returns.
This is what we strive to provide. Um, we would advise any investor: please diversify. Diversify between investment companies and investment strategies. We just try to do one thing as best as we can. To Nick Train, thank you very much. Thank you.
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