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let's take a look at this market right now we're still deep in the red about 45 minutes ago and today's session the down the SP still off more than 7% joining us now to discuss is Tom Lee he's a managing partner and had a research at fund strata advisor so Tom let's just start with your overall thoughts on let's just keep it to today's market action it certainly seemed over the weekend and we saw it last night it was going to be a crazy futures open and and it was and then we got the circuit breaker today's is this kind of making your head spin or did you anticipate we'd see days like this um no I think it's hard to anticipate a day like this I mean the the stock market's gonna close down let's say 7% and it's a historic decline and probably top three for worst ever in the history of the market so if you think about it like in you know 10,000 days of trading there's only been three days that are similar right so I mean this is real history and if someone said oh well it's because you know Corona and oil you know got scared us I mean it's changed the level the market by 7% so in other words you know is the future value of the economy and stock market 7% worse I don't have the answer to that but to me I don't think today was price discovery I think this was interest rates fell Vic spiked oil tanked people said I gotta just get out of everything and reassess so I don't think today's a price setting day and I wouldn't want to be trying to establish price in here by selling anything and if someone is a bargain hunter maybe they could try to put some crazy bids out there and get some stocks really cheap so - what you're saying it also doesn't sound like this is definitely over I mean how do we since there's so many questions that are still out there when do you know okay we're not gonna have this day again tomorrow or or Wednesday do you have any sense of that yeah well you know I guess there's some couple ways to sort of try to triangulate one is to say how much of a recession is priced in and as of today you know there's a hundred percent chance priced into the equity market and when you look at the rates market it's virtually a hundred percent and the VIX is pretty much saying it's 100 percent so today stock market has priced in a recession in the US and then from you know tomorrow May do we price in a depression maybe but I think the other thing you have to ask is okay well then how do you calibrate visibility around it and I think the key question that's going to come up over time is actually around Corona it's gonna be is gonna be mortality because I don't think case count like what we're seeing is we're seeing case can't rise but now we're with more data we're seeing the mortality differ between countries right like so where there's really good data sets like Singapore and South Korea or even Diamond Princess the mortality is really low like less than 1% but in some of the other countries where there's not great counting you know the mortality looks like it's 11 percent so I think as that starts to standardize and we get visibility the market can reprice and then with oil you know 40 percent of the global economy is a commodity producer so dropping the price of a cup major commodity by 30 percent is a huge ripple effect and so I know there's a benefit to US consumers but really it's not great for the global economy Tom so refresh our memory and what your target for the SP is for this year and you have it revised that at all right so you're saying you're standing by the fact that you said the v-shape recovery is gonna happen yeah it's intact so what makes you say that yeah so so we're let's say we're at 2,700 on the SP and so and we think 20 34 hundreds possible which is a 700 point move you know which by the way is where we were like two weeks ago right almost um I think that's definitely possible because the stock market is you know we're trying to do some price setting here and we're trying to reflect a lot of deep stress but as long as the economy doesn't break then what we have is a liquidity overwhelming the market short-term and that's kind of what happened in China right if you look at the Shanghai Composite it's really roughly three weeks ahead of the US but that market fell fourteen percent over roughly 13 trading sessions and it recovered almost all of it in the following fourteen trading sessions so I you know is two paths I'm either going down or we're bouncing well and so to that point about you know price setting days versus kind of washout days and just the speed with the March with which the market moves I mean we saw it on the upside at the beginning of 2019 it's not like that's ancient history that we saw the market go up 20% in just a handful of sessions so I mean is is this the kind of move that you're now I mean no one's gonna say it's normal to see a 7% move in the market but should we be more accustomed to the market trying to price in every eventualities in a week and then try to price out all the worst stuff in that same amount of time because it does seem to me like a pattern that's repeated quite often in the last couple of years yeah well I mean I think that H the the game of investing changed in the 25 years or 27 years I've been following markets because technology has reduced training cost and information flows a lot more efficiently and so if someone's trying to outsmart the market because they've got better data points that much that games already been won by the systemic funds and and those systemic funds you know are really reacting to the social media tweets and the trends and Twitter and the media and they're scouring all that and if they're detecting pessimism you know then price momentum becomes really dominant in in the short term and I mean one way you can even tell is like you know look at trends in twitter and it's like coronis like number three it's not my crash number to look at Google top searches today and it's like you know the Kardashians I mean so the broader market isn't really actually that fate you know route rattled by the stock market or by Corona but in the high-frequency social media twitter world it's dominating and so that's what the markets reacting to hi Marcus still under pressure into the clothes Tom Lee still joining us now of course with fun Scrat Global Advisors so Tom let's talk about another asset class we haven't touched yet which is Bitcoin and the crypto market in general now like would you consider it a hedge in general and where does crypto fit into a stock market moment like this yeah I think anything that's defined as a hedge should be something where the the fundamental driver its value is it is socratic to the other ass class so like for the stock market bonds aren't a hedge because they're both tied to interest rates you know and the general thrust of the economy correctly and like Gold's a decent hedge because it's essentially a store value or connect as money so it has like different roles and so it can be uncorrelated to the stock market cryptocurrencies is really got to thrust you know one is it's it's a network based value asset so the more people that adopt it the more valuable becomes but it's also a disruption to the financial system right it's another way to replace banking functions because it's so much cheaper to move money this way so in a an environment where the stock market is in big trouble crypto actually I think does make sense as a hedge to the extent that you're still going to drive adoption because you know the more people worry about the world and they buy guns and ar-15s you know they're also going to buy cryptocurrencies but also to the extent people worry about the banks they're gonna think about crypto but there's a problem with that thesis which is crypto still relies on crypt fiat - crypto on-ramps you know people actually having money to put into crypto and if the stock markets down and they're getting margin calls or Robin Hood's shut down yeah the Bitcoin bid disappears and so it's a decent hedge but not a full hedge what is that I guess the time horizon on on crypto in this idea of globalization which we talked about on Friday so is coronavirus what's happening now is this going to be pulling us back in the trade war we're going to be coming just more centered on our own countries is that make crypto more complicated or less of an appeal because part of it is the frictionless us you can have just sending money to somebody around the other side of the world yeah it's a good question I I mean I think you know I don't know what the byproduct of that Corona will be you know it may be regionalization of supply chains it could be people don't travel or it could be like everyone just gets chapped hands because they're washing it all the time and but I I think you know crypto still really useful I mean even for you know like in Asia you know Bitcoin is a real way for people to move money and to send money around so it's you know even with it arguably safer because you're not having to handle paper money and then it can't be seized by a government that's having financing problems or you know having to raise taxes so I I think it's still gonna be really useful Tom do you still have your Bitcoin misery index yes where is that it's it's in the middle range so so the Bitcoin misery index which ranges between zero and a hundred when it when people are really miserable which is below thirty you actually want to buy Bitcoin and then when people really love Bitcoin when it's above seventy it's very tough for Bitcoin to build on its gains and right now it's right in this middle range around the forty so I would say sentiment is neither that bullish nor bearish on crypto and I think that's why it's also you know it's it's been struggling and then Tom just to kind of finish up think about the stock market here you know I think it was maybe three or four weeks ago you had that no doubt talking about not enough S&P to go around and this idea that you look at the outperformance of US stocks relative to their peers and it's clear that this was something like a like a safety trade and that's just not now it was over the last ten years do you think that that kind of trend is still intact and you look at like the way the economy was behaving in February which you learned at the jobs report like when when we get past Corona are we gonna be looking at a period where those kinds of trends remain in place for me yeah I mean they're short answers I'd say yes I think the SMP is still scarce because think of it this way like let's take the ten best companies in the SP like Facebook Google Apple you know Microsoft and we say okay once Corona passes did Corona allow another country to make a better oh s or smartphone or social media company and if the answer is yes then SP traits not a it's there's there's plenty of S&P to go on but if these are still the best companies you know these are great businesses where the CEOs are really motivated to deliver sharla value and they've got great metrics and I think they go up a lot so all right Tom Lee with funds drought always good to hear from you thanks so much investors sach in
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