저자: 미상 · 외국인
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알파벳은 실적이 견조하고 자사주 매입이 많지만 선행 PER 21.2배로 빅테크 중 가장 저평가. 저평가 이유로 2024~2026년 애널리스트 성장률 둔화와 순다르 피차이 CEO에 대한 신뢰 문제를 꼽음. 픽셀 판매 증가, 유튜브 구독·구글원 성장, 웨이모 등 신사업을 긍정 요인으로 제시. 주가는 200일선(약 130달러) 근처 지지 시 매력적 진입 기회로 봄.
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is alphabet a wonderful company at a fair price now alphabet reported their quarterly earnings couple of days ago numbers were very very solid I mean growth accelerating a couple of important segments profitability there as well companies buying back a lot of shares so why isn't the market liking this company right now because if we look at this company yes of course amazing track records right amazing growth market cap $ 1.77 trillion but if we look at the forward multiples here forward PE for example 21.2 times it is the cheapest out of the Magnificent 7 why is that why is it cheaper than Microsoft Amazon Apple Tesla Nvidia Meta Meta is actually the only one that is pretty close even though it did jump 20% after reporting earnings but still a company like alphabet is trading at the cheaper valuation than all the other big players and if you look at the 5year mean here forp V price to sales price to free cash flow in the last 12 months it's all cheaper right now so what's the deal why isn't the market trusting this company to be at a more premium valuation just like the others well that's what we're going to discuss in this video I'm going to try and make my case but still you're buying a company that is buying back an insane amount of shares which means you're shares will be worth more in the future free cash flow per share here has been increasing throughout the years and who knows maybe maybe they looked at meta issuing a dividend and also buying back a lot of shares maybe they'll announce the same thing who knows but right now you're definitely buying a business that is growing top and bottom line that is buying back an insane amount of their own shares but what are the analysts expecting for the coming years maybe that might explain the cheaper valuation so as you can see for fiscal year 24 and 25 sales growth of around 11% year over year EPS growth around 15 to 16% then fisc year 2026 sales growth of another 10% and EPS 13.42% year-over-year growth so here you might say that okay maybe because in the coming fiscal years this company will be or is expected to grow a bit slower than all the other big companies and that's why we're giving it a lower multiple okay could be again these are just analyst expectations not what the company will actually do sometimes they'll do more sometimes they'll do less so okay that might be one reason why this is trading at a lower multiple than the other Magnificent 7even the other reason will probably be and that's just my opinion of course is the COO Sundar P maybe the market does not trust him as CEO of alphabet to lead this company in the new age of AI if you look at Z if you look at Sacha Adela Jensen one for example these are world class top CEOs that have been innovating that have been growing that have been moving extremely fast what has alphabet what has Google done in the last couple of years besides reacting to moves by other companies in my opinion not that much so maybe that might be another big reason but I'm going to show you more positive signs of this being not a Deb company more on that in just a second would really appreciate that you want to support me even further do check out the link down in the description and in the pin comment to get a top 10 best stocks to buy now or go to f.com investor thank you very much so I want to start off with obviously the search engine market share worldwide this is on desktop currently it sits just below 82% for Google 10.5% for Bing of course Bing has been taking some market share and Google has been losing a little bit of market share but still the dominant player there and this is desktop if we move to mobile we just have to laugh a little bit here because Google sits at 9532 being at 52% Yandex 1.53% so so despite all the fears that chat GPT B will affect Google's dominance yes I know B is part of Google but still will affect their dominance in the search Market I think with 95.
32% they're still in a pretty comfortable spot then moving over one of my favorite things and this is my phone right now and that's the Google pixel I'm very happy with this phone I have a Google pixel 8 the software the AI capabilities for pictures for videos really really topnotch for a very affordable price and apparently and this was released back in late 2023 Google pixel sales reaches 40 million 10 million in just one year and that 10 million might not seem a lot but it has been increasing year over year or maybe generation after generation and I don't see it slowing down anytime soon for example by 2019 Google's momentum picked up with 7.2 million units sold that year alone I think we're going to be that with the pixel 8 and pixel 8 Pro now why is that important well Google controls the whole ecosystem Google controls Android and if Google can put more and more physical devices in people's pockets they can do what Apple has been doing for years and years right build upon that apps Financial Services advertising maybe Google at some points will not be paying Samsung and Apple to be the default browsers they're paying billions ions and billions of dollars that flow into those companies bottom line maybe one day they'll say look we think the pixel phone is very very successful with think Google Chrome is already the default browser even though they have to go into Safari even though they have to go into Edge or being to download it we think most people will still use Chrome so we're not willing to pay you tens of billions of dollars each time for our browser to be the default one we're not doing that anymore here you go that will definitely increase Google's bottom line as well and increase their dominance moving on to some extra things that were mentioned in the earnings SC with regards to subscriptions it is now a $15 billion business annually YouTube is the key driver of our subscription Revenue not surprised there YouTube music premium having some real momentum now I don't think the majority of YouTube users will be premium users but I do think that over time people will just say enough ads I'm happy to pay a fee per year to stop seeing ads to watch videos without advertising and for Google for Youtube this is just an increase in Revenue with nice margins moving on to Google one this is growing very well we are just about to cross 100 million subscribers again subscription models here we' seen this across the board with other competitors with apple as well this is going to be a huge success and a driver of increased revenue and increased profits moving on to a bet a bet that if successful can generate Millions if not billions of dollars in future profits and that's way more so way more which is deeply focused on safety reach over 1 million fully autonomous right hailing trips congrats on that Milestone lastly here something to note for 2024 in 2024 they expect investment in capex will be notably larger than in 2023 but rest assured Revenue will increase faster than capex and so we've reach the earnings report for those of you that missed that so Revenue increased 133% year-over-year or compared to 20122 to the whole 2023 that increased 9% year-over year operating income operating margin for I say 27% for 2023 last quarter for the whole year a bit of the same net income was 20.68 billion huge increase from the 1362 billion in the same quarter in 2022 diluted earnings per share up close to 60% year-over-year to $164 now with regards to the different segments here Google search and others over $84 Billion YouTube ads 9.2 billion Google Network 8.29 billion and so Google advertising as a whole $ 6551 billion yes it did miss the estimates by a little bit and maybe that's also one of the reasons why the stock took a hit in my opinion didn't make that much sense small hit but still the important segments here have outperformed Google cloud 9.19 billion and if we look at the operating income for each segment here Google Cloud re accelerating by the way top and bottom line now $864 million Google services $ 2673 billion and so overall total income from operations $23.69 billion here they do talk about reductions in the workforce and office spaces and so they have to pay s and related taxes of a couple of billions of dollars now overall of course it's never nice to see layoffs and things like that but in my opinion for a company like alphabet I don't really think they've done enough Cost Cuts compared to all the other big tech companies so maybe maybe through about 2024 more cuss Cuts more job Cuts will occur I don't know but for a company of that size that is supposed to be extremely Tech oriented I don't think they've done enough to be leaner faster growing and more profitable with regards to what the others have done that's just my opinion of course I do not wish for people to be unemployed but if we purely compare it from investment standpoint they haven't really done enough and so last thing here here is the graph One stock one share will cost you $42.39 right now this on the weekly on The Daily yes we were a bit overbought at $152 so maybe that's also one other reason why the stock dropped even though the report was pretty solid currently this is an area where we've been in the past and actually got rejected a couple of times let's see if these times this can hold and stay as a support line if you want to look at better opportunities the 200 day moving average sits at just under $130 if it reaches that area which previously it did rebound around that 200 day moving average so if it reach that area I do think this might be an excellent opportunity so overall you're getting a super strong very very profitable company that is buying back an insane amount of shares that is becoming more profitable over time that is still growing yes there are some things that they have to do better yes maybe the CEO isn't the best man for the job to lead this incredible company into the future of AI capabilities maybe SRE will have to come back maybe Larry would have to come back I don't know but those are all the let's say options out there you've got The Good The Bad and The Not So Ugly in this video of course do share your thoughts down in the comments below bye-bye
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