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Jim Cramer on why Nvidia investors shouldn't overreact to the latest Blackwell report

CNBC Television · 2024-11-19 · 유튜브 시청 62,519 · Board Views 7 · International

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NBC tweet me Jim Cramer minutia minutia can shake you out of tremendous Investments every time today's minutia on a day with the Dow dip 55 points has to be Advanced 39% nasda gain 60% let's talk about what happened to the world's largest chipmaker let's talk about Nvidia which reports on Wednesday now Nvidia is normally pretty open about its business but like all companies it has what's known as a quiet period that starts four weeks before the company reports its earnings if there's something very much impacts the earnings madf is not supposed to answer any questions about it during the quiet period even if it knows the answer it is always respect respectful of it and you need to know that now Nvidia reports this week so it's in the final days of this quiet period that means any news disseminated this week that could impact the company would put squarely Nvidia squarely behind the eightball everyone knows that you can really throw off any company and its shareholders by injecting uncertainty sure enough this weekend a publication called the information said that invidious grappling with what it called quote new problems related to its much anticipated Blackwell Graphics unit for artificial intelligence end quote the machines are big they are powerful and by nvidia's own admission they run hot the problem occurs when they are connected together in a customized service rack server rack now look this is serious business these server racks the type of story I'd love to get a response to you about but when I tried to get a response from Nvidia I got listen Jim we're in quiet period we can't help you so this nor this really noisy not great story comes out I try to find out what's going on and I can't that means I have no idea if there's something that could delay large scale Implement implementation of Blackwell that's their latest and greatest chip perhaps it'll be delayed until January when manag on record saying that the new product line could be humming maybe there's a problem beyond that orh per perhaps there's no real issue at all because the key company that installs invidious chips known as Dell announced today in a tweet quote the first in the world Nvidia GB the gra black well 200 nvl 72 server racks are now shipping the server racks that we were told weren't shipping as Michael del went on in this tweet quote we are thrilled to deliver our liquid cooled power Edge XE 9712 to cweed the AI rocket just got a massive boost and quote qu's a new cloud computing provider that's been a voracious user of Nvidia chips of course the information updated their piece with that info which pretty much called the whole exercise that in that the information had uh issued into question oh boy what was the damage ever done so then the question becomes who's telling the truth here the information which says there are real issues involving delays or Michael Dell who's telling you there is no delay here it is I have known Michael Dell for years he has not impressed me as anything other than a scrupulous business person ever since Dell came public for the first time in 1988 the information I first chronicled their activities back in August 2nd just when they broke the story that Blackwell was running late funny when I called in video back then about the information story of Blackwell back then the company had just entered quiet period so they weren't allowed to talk to me sensing a pattern here quiet period quiet perod here just like this quiet period I could only sit on my hands and let the negative story wash over me funny when that story broke the stock was at 107 5 days later was at 98 with Nvidia back up to 149 early this month you left a huge amount of money on the table if you took your queue from the information's information now I'm not guaranteeing good quarter from Nvidia Wednesday at all far from it I've been W watchfully waiting for full Blackwell shipments even as the company's been saying for months that these chip ships wouldn't stop start shipping in volum until January I was thinking maybe they were practicing underperform and overd deliver now I don't know in fact I could argue that the information news isn't news at all though the machines are complicated they run real hot I said that when I interviewed do CEO Rich toin here on Friday Dober makes some of the equipment that keeps these data centers cool liquid cooling before Blackwell there were chips that could be cooled by air Tobin says it's possible one day that Do's cryogenic solution might be needed to put into play could happen why do I go into all these details well for there there are several reasons one is that Nidia stock is arguably the greatest of all time it's had a concentrated burst of strength that's almost unprecedented this thing is no warhorse you know what it is it's a sprinter and a Workhorse at the same time it's Secretariat a Marvel of a horse that won the Bellmont Stakes by an astronomical 31 lengths in 1973 a record that I don't think will ever be broken just like in video second I'm Nvidia millionaires who thank me wherever I go and I go to quite a few places these people typically tell me how many times they've been freaked out or told to freak out by people who should have known better and because I said own it don't trade it they stayed the course many of these people bought this stock because I renamed my rescue mut Nvidia back in June 20th in 2017 in a desperate Gambit for you to understand that this was a big big stock Everest was Rec christened on a day when the stock traded at $3.88 the Stock's now at 140 in that time I've realized that we've all become way too trading oriented around here now we're in Nvidia at the beginning of August this year at 107 when the devastating information story broke about the delay the one that Nvidia couldn't respond to a hopeless pinata reviled by the short Sellers and allegedly by the customers although I couldn't find a single one who was truly grieved given the new found trading proclivity I have to wonder how many people had the armor of the dog Nvidia and how many had it wear off it wore off if it wore off you forgot the amazing thing about Nvidia which is that it has really no competitors now here we go again maybe Nvidia mentions the information delay story on Wednesday conference call maybe we'll mention Michael Dell's shipment of Iraq Blackwell suggesting uh I think it suggest that they'll still have the opportunity to ship these chips in volume in January which is what I've been led to expect however the trading Obsession might have shaken you out today especially because you couldn't hear a response from Nvidia because it the information did the story during the quiet period but let me ask you what if Blackwell really is to late until January would that mean big wins for the people who paid Boku bucks to buy competitor AMD up for today we own AMD for our child trust like it very much we own it right along with Nvidia and we know it doesn't have product that's as good as Blackwell if I want so against trading I guess maybe I would have sold AMD up five and then buy it back lower when the erroneous data is washed out of the stock I didn't do that I don't play that game maybe you think invidious customers are all hopping mad and willing to hold back money that would be wrong too they have nowhere else to go for this kind of chip so what then is this story about from the information is it much to do about nothing well not if you work at the information the information shop is to sell subscriptions it's a noble goal I did it for years this story likely did that Spades for them and Nvidia actually reports a shortfall the new subscription will be endless after Jensen Wong starts out by saying you know what we blew it the servers can't handle the heat and collect Crest the CFO quantifies all that business's loss and all the upset clients then the information may have gotten a huge scoop Maybe This Time really is the top and it's all because of the server meltdowns but the bottom line actually am more inclined to think that you're getting a buying opportunity Nvidia thanks to the information publishing a story that may that may simply not be that unless you didn't know all that much and you parted with Nvidia as soon as the news came out Ann in Indiana an hey Jimbo thanks a lot I'm a really happy Club member Berkshire B Because forward earnings or sorry the forward PE is a lot higher so like what's what are people worried about with their decline in earnings and then when they bought and sold Ulta within a quarter that sounds like some boneheaded thing I would have done because I didn't have conviction well look these are big issues and one is let's just spell the first the latter I would say that Ulta was a position that was wasn't worm Buffet somebody who works there sold in and out the forward PE look they have a lot of cash you you can't really judge that PE because of the cash I think you hold on I feel great about the stock it's up 32% for the year Berkshire beat is a great situation and I thank you for joining the club let's go to Clark and Marilyn Clark come on a couple months ago you had recommended it but my dad bought it from and it's up 30% is it time to R the I had the pleasure of speaking will laning actually this the uh uh who's the CEO was on our Network last week he told a great story I happen to talk to him again this summer and you know he's been on the show and FICO has been one of our big big Winners called Fair Isaac but it's you know it's FICO and I continue to think it is a great great situation kids got Horse Sense stays in the picture Annette New York Annette hi Jim I'm a first time caller longterm listener I have a stock that I have uh that I currently hold I have it for quite a while it's up a lot since I bought it and I just wanted to know if it there's room to go higher should I buy more should I hold should I sell the stock is Motorola solu solution that stock is incredible and I should have profiled a long time ago I kept waiting for it to P to pull back and it just hasn't you know they have like no competitors in this public safety space that they're in I think it's a great stock and congratulations for being long it right maybe the story published by the information about video is true or maybe it'll turn out to be another buying opportunity for one of the greatest stocks of all time and still be true on May tonight Bristol Myers got a boost from a competitor's failed drug trial but could Trump's pick the helm uh to take the Helm of HHS bring some headwinds Bobby junor I'm breaking down the story plus after last week's semi sell up I'm digging deeper into what's holding back appli materials and if long-term growth could still be on the horizon and speaking of tech I'm going off the tape with AI player light matter

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