저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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테슬라가 자동차 보험을 직접 취급할 가능성에 대해 버핏은 자동차 회사의 보험 진출 성공 확률이 보험사의 자동차 사업 진출 성공 확률과 비슷할 정도로 낮다고 평가. 텔레매틱스 데이터는 중요하지만 자동차 회사가 이점을 가지지는 않는다고 봄. 온라인 차량 판매는 또 하나의 경쟁자지만 좋은 딜러를 완전히 파괴하지는 않는다고 봄. 자율주행차는 15년 이상 먼 미래의 일이며, 안전성 향상은 보험업계에 장기적으로 부정적이라고 언급. 기술 파괴 사례로 마이크로소프트가 백과사전을 무료로 끼워준 것을 언급.
다듬은 글
Elon Musk says the Tesla will start to offer insurance for its cars and can price it better than a typical insurance company because of the data it collects from all the vehicles on at the road you've talked about the threat of autonomous vehicles on the insurance business but what about the threat to Geico of automobile companies themselves getting into the insurance business and on a very similar topic Tesla recently announced that they're shifting to an online only sales model and several traditional auto dealerships are also reducing their Property Holdings as car buyers increasingly use smartphones in the internet to shop for cars what does this portend for Berkshire Hathaway Automotive yeah uh actually General Motors had a company for a long time called Motors insurance company and and various companies have tried it I would say that uh the success of of the insurance company of the auto companies getting an insurance business are probably about as likely as the success of the insurance companies getting into the auto business it it uh I worry much more about Progressive than all of the Auto Company possibilities that I can see in terms of getting Insurance business it's not an easy business uh at all and uh I would bet against any company in the auto business being any kind of a out of an unusual success the idea of using telematics in terms of studying people studying people's drivers habits that's that's spreading quite quite widely and it isn't important it is important to have data on how people drive how hard they break how much they swerve all kinds of things uh so I don't doubt the value of the data but I don't think that the the auto companies will have any any advantage to that I don't think they'll make money in the insurance business the uh using the internet to shop for cars is like you know using the internet for shopping for everything it's another competitor and uh there's no question that people will look for better ways now the gross margin on news cars on new cars is about six percent are there about so there's there's not lots of room in the game but but that's that will be a method and that will sell some cars and that there are you know it's it's another competitor that uh but I don't think it it destroys the auto dealer who takes good care of the customers and is is there to service the customers and no one uh not a it's not an overwhelming threat but it's obviously something that's going to be around and we'll sell some cars Charlie again nothing okay well if you look at the leading candy bars for example for the last 50 years I think you'll find Snickers on top and then you've got M M's you got two types so they don't combine the penis with the ones but I think they're number two and four and you know Hershey's in there number three or something in the short yeah I can't take them on you know I don't think he likes to take a bond you know they have moats when you go into a a drugstore uh 7-Eleven or something and you say I would like a Snickers bar and the owner says oh I've got something uh the musk bar at at 10 cents off the Snickers bar you say give me the Snickers and if he doesn't give you the Snickers you go across the street and buy the Snickers the the brands brands or molds I mean obviously and and and and if you try to you know this product is selling you know to hundreds of millions of people who want Coca-Cola if you say also you know something for two cents less or I've got some celebrity's name on it they actually uh Richard Branson tried virgin Cola in the United States about 15 or 20 years ago uh and a million others have been tried so uh I I don't really have the same urge to produce automobiles that he apparently has to produce candy but I don't I don't suggest any take on stickers you're taking me literally and stepping away from the real story here which is kind of this war of words between you and Charlie and Elon and I just want do you even know Elon Musk I've never I've never said anything negative about anyone I mean you're debating me a little bit to do it but I am but uh but I've never you know people like his car and everything but uh uh but somebody mentioned that now we're talking about financing something this morning about that I I I thought I heard that earlier yes it actually Andrew just read some headlines where it looked like they may be Tesla maybe going back to Market and to to pick up some additional financing I'm not entirely sure all I hear was that all I heard was the headline that's what I call the counter Revelation I mean Charlie you know because I think it was just a few days ago they said they wouldn't need financing but you know he's trying something to improve a product and I I salute him for that and the American public will decide whether it's a success and and it's not easy you know so it's probably easier to develop a new car this could be with stickers but some products have terrific balls to him probably Elmer's Glue does you know WD-40 I mean you can there's just certain things that you were not much inclined to be dissatisfied with and see and I would say that incidentally that the that the iPhone uh you know has a terrific mode I mean people that have an iPhone uh uh or maybe have some other phone but they they want to continue with a product that they've got they want they want the new version it's just easier for them they've learned how to do everything and their life's built around it and all of that and mulch are very useful Costco has a mode in people's mind I mean yeah Amazon can raise the price of prime you know 20 and you can't do that unless you've built something within that image of the Amazon Prime that's based on reality that you're going to get a lot for your money and you're going to want to use it and then you can raise prices twenty dollars but if you're selling you know if you're selling some commodity problem a product you can't do that you know if we have driverless cars um is that going to be an issue for the auto insurance companies like a Geico the answer is yes I think it's a long way off but I but there's no question anything that makes cars safer is very pro-social and it's bad for the auto insurance industry but nevertheless the auto insurance industry has always worked on making cars I mean they've led the way on things like seat belts and all that but but if there are no accidents that no need for insurance and I think there will be a big reduction in accidents over a longer period of time and of course it already has I mean cars have been made way way safer but now when you start making the driver safe safer uh that would be a big big shopping that'll happen someday and and when it happens there'll be a whole lot less auto insurance written yeah in the meantime auto accidents have gone up as you pointed out over the weekend because of drivers who aren't paying attention just the last year I mean generally speaking the trend has been fabulous over the years and uh you know we literally have gone from 15 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles down to something close to one I mean that that was you you got to give Ralph Nader credit for some of that and uh uh but last year there was an uptick which it seemed well there were more miles driven but I'm expressing this in terms of miles driven so you have to say that there was some other variable and I I think it's just almost has to be distracted driving Charlene Bill Warren has said repeatedly that he thinks that driverless cars is quite a way in the ways of the distance do you two agree with that assessment you think it's at least 10 years down the road yeah even though the technology is very good today because of uh trying to understand the liability issues um it's it'll you'll see experiments in a few Leading Edge cities around the world during the next decade and if those go well it'll start to spread so it's you know certainly more than 15 years off before it'd be a a meaningful percentage of of cars driven Charlie it's intrinsically very difficult thing to do people are going to want to drive faster than the speed limit and so forth and the software is not going to allow it I think they're going to be lots of problems and so and but berkshire's experienced technological destruction before one of the earliest examples came from Bill Gates we had this wonderful company that made this wonderful encyclopedia that produced 50 million dollars of net income every year like clockwork and Bill gave away a free encyclopedia with every bit of Microsoft software in a way when a large part of our profits from the encyclopedia business forever he's a traitor that's right and it helped him it helped him to make us fortunate now he destroyed it it's just it's just the way he is so let's talk about Microsoft because Sacha Nadella came in and a lot of people kind of scratched their heads they didn't know too much about them didn't expect them but he's done a pretty phenomenal job in the stock has uh has come up pretty sharply as a result what do you think about the job he's doing and what why do you think that Microsoft is um really resonating so much on Wall Street these guys well I think the software industry as a whole has so much opportunity to improve things and
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