Warren Buffett: Bitcoin Owners Are Insane And Deluded

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결론: 버핏은 비트코인을 생산성 없는 자산으로 보고 장기적으로 나쁜 결말을 맞을 것이라 주장하며, 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 단기 예측은 하지 않았다. 비트코인 평가: 버핏은 비트코인을 생산성이 없는 자산으로 규정했다. 금, 우표, 튤립처럼 다른 사람이 더 비싸게 사주기를 기대하는 투기성 자산이라는 논리다. 가치 비교: 농장은 작물을, 아파트는 임대수익을, 기업은 이익을 내지만 비트코인은 아무것도 생산하지 않는다고 설명했다. 1달러에 25달러를 제시받아도 살 이유가 없다는 비유를 들었다. 과거 사례: 1942년 금 투자, 루이지애나 매입 토지, 튤립 버블 등을 예로 들며 투기성 자산은 결국 나쁜 결말을 맞는다고 주장했다. 찰리 멍거 발언: 비트코인은 쥐약에 가깝고 자신은 암호화폐 거래를 역겨운 일로 보며, 중국이 비트코인을 금지한 것을 미국보다 현명하다고 평가했다. 규제·사회 관점: 비트코인은 국가 통화 시스템과 정부 통제를 훼손할 수 있어 악이라고 봤다. 버핏은 또 사회가 점점 부족주의적으로 변해 위험하다고 우려했다. 단기 가격 방향 예측: 없음. 장기적으로 나쁜 결말이라는 견해만 있어 horizon은 장기로 보았으나, 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 확인되지 않았다. 기타 자산: 금에 대해서는 생산성 없는 자산으로 부정적으로 평가했다. 그 외 종목·지수·금리·환율에 대한 방향 예측은 없었다. 출연자 전망: 버핏과 멍거 모두 비트코인에 대해 부정적이며 장기적 실패를 전망했다.

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01. now if you told me you owned all of the Bitcoin and you offered it to me for 25 I wouldn't take it because what would I do with it um I have to sell it back to you one way or another I mean I mean but it isn't going to do anything I do think that I think what's going on definitely will come to a bad ending I mean you've got virtually everybody I I have a class I have 11 schools coming on Friday the questions will be on bitcoin and I won't know the answers although when we sat down Warren you did say I should have announced that we were getting involved in Bitcoin this morning well that is true I mean to uh that would be much more interesting to the audience that we were going to issue a whole series of cryptocurrencies tomorrow but no we aren't believe me and we don't own any we're not sure that he will never have a position in them capitalization of cryptocurrencies approached that of Berkshire and apple last year and clearly the idea behind crypto will affect conventional banking groups where Berkshire is a shareholder you always say you didn't go into too much detail to obtain an understanding on cryptocurrencies so what factors caused you to say that it's a bubble well generally non-productive assets remain if you bought gold at the time of Christ and you figure the compound rate on it you know it's it may be a couple tenths of one percent uh the essentially is not going to deliver anything other than supposed scarcity you know because they'll own me you can only mine so many but so what I mean what is what does it produce itself um you know the check is a wonderful idea just imagine how the world would be without being able to write checks or have wire transfer funds but it doesn't make the check intensely itself worth a lot of money and if you said you can't use something called check with a little piece of paper you do something else to transfer money I I think that anytime you buy a non-productive asset uh you are counting on somebody else later on to buy a non-productive asset because they think they can sell it to somebody for more money and it's been tried with tulips and it's been trying it's been tried with various things over time and it does come to a bad ending I'm having you have a hard time you can you can think of think of raw land I mean the Louisiana Purchase was say 15 million dollars for 800 000 or so square miles of land in fact you're sitting on land that came with the Louisiana Purchase and and uh so what we pay we paid 20 bucks a square mile and uh you know 640 acres in a square mile and you're down to three cents a or something so that was a pretty good purchase of an what was then a non-productive property but it depend but it's very hard you can buy stamps Bill gross got everything you know collected a wonderful stamp collection and it sold for more money in the end but it's dependent on somebody else wanting to buy hoping they will sell it for more money and so on and in the end you make your money out of productive assets if you buy a farm you you try to estimate what the crops what amount per acre of soybeans or corn or whatever may be raised and how much you have to pay the farmer that Farms it for you and what your taxes will be and various things and you make a conclusion based on what the asset itself will produce over time and that's an investment when you buy something because you're hoping tomorrow morning you're going to wake up you know and the price will be higher it's going to be you know you need more people coming into it than they're leaving and and they uh and you can get that and it will feed ourselves for a while and sometimes for a long while and sometimes do extraordinary numbers but in the end but they come to Bad Endings and cryptocurrencies will come to Bad Endings and along with the fact that nothing being produced in the way of value from the asset that that uh you also have the problem that it draws in a lot of charlatans and that sort of a thing who are trying to create various sorts of exchanges or whatever it may be it you know it's something where where people who were of less than Stellar character see an opportunity to clip people who were trying to get rich because their neighbors getting rich behind this stuff and neither one of them understands it will come to a bad ending Charlie well I like crypto currencies a lot less than you do and so to me it's just dementia and I think the people who are professional traders that go into Trading cryptocurrencies it it's it's just disgusting it's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide I can't be left out to the extent that this we're being webcaster on the world I hope some of our stuff doesn't translate very well actually at one point this weekend you said that Bitcoin and this was based you were asked Charlie said bitcoin's like rat poison you were asked about that comment and you said well it's probably more like rat poison squared uh Charlie went on in the meeting to then basically call Bitcoin turds um he is an expressive sort of maybe when he gets a little older he'll mature I just want to ask you about that because it sparked so much controversy and what is it about Bitcoin that gets you guys so fired up well when you buy a farm uh you look at the crop every year and and what prices are and you decide whether it was satisfactory investment I mean you look to the asset itself and what it produces for you when we buy a business we look at what the business earns and decide how we feel about it in terms of what we paid but we are buying something that at the end of the period we not only have what we bought in the first place but we have something that the asset produced and when you buy non-productive assets uh all you're counting on is whether the next person is going to pay you more because they're even more excited about another next person coming along but the asset itself is creating nothing one of the interesting things for example is gold uh if you go back to the time of Christ and you look at how many hours whatever you had to give up in order to buy an ounce of gold and you take it forward to now you'll you'll find the compound right maybe a tenth or two tenths of one percent you know and it's wonderful because it does create a rising price does create more buyers and people think I've got to get in on this and and it's better if they don't understand it that's the other thing about not if you don't understand it you get much more excited than if you understand it I mean if you buy a bonuses you can pay you four percent a year you're not getting any pleasant surprises she's going to pay a four percent a year but if you if you you can have anything you want to imagine if you just look at something say that's magic you can do it with sharks teeth or seashells or or anything and uh you know they did it with tulips and and in the 17th century in in in Amsterdam and and they'll do it again I mean people they like to speculate they like to gamble and uh if you can get something particularly if you have something half plausible going on if you had bought gold in 1942 and you say we might lose the war we might have to run off to some other country and you know so let's put our Assets in Gold you would have less than a penny for every dollar you got from owning stocks less than a penny now somebody calls out a store of value I mean I think they're illusionary okay well I shouldn't answer any questions on the subject but I will ah you know there's there's all kinds of people watching this that are long Bitcoin and there's nobody that's short and nobody nobody wants their win by stepped on and I don't blame them I don't like people step on my windpipe but I would say this that if all the people listen if the people in this room uh owned all of the Farmland in the United States and you offered me a one percent interest in it and you said from one percent interest in all the Farmland in the United States uh pay me pay our group um well let's see definitely ah it says bargain price 25 billion dollars I'll write your check this afternoon 25 billion now I own one percent of the farmland if you tell me you own one percent of the apartment houses in the United States uh and you offer me uh a one percent interest so I'll have a one percent of all the apartment houses in the country and you want whatever it may be for it um another 25 billion or something I'll write your check how it's very simple now if you told me you owned all of the Bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for 25 dollars I wouldn't take it because what would I do with it um I have to sell it back to you one way or another I mean they've got the same people but it isn't going to do anything the apartments are going to produce rental and and the Farms are going to produce food and uh if I've got all the Bitcoin and I'm I'm back with whatever his name was who may or may not have existed was you know 15 years if I've got it all he could create a mystery about it but everybody knows what I'm like I mean so if I'm trying to get rid of it you know people will say well uh you know why should I buy some Bitcoin running I mean why don't you call it buffer coin you know make your own or something what do something but I'm not going to give you anything for it and you'd be right incidentally but that explains the difference between productive assets and something that depends on the next guy paying you more than the last guy got now net if you look at it a lot of commissions have been paid and there's I mean there's all kinds of frictional costs that are very real that somebody is paid to a bunch of people who facilitate this game but whatever one group of the public has taken out or one group of owners has come in from other people I mean it's other people have entered the room and they've moved money around but but no money has there's no more money in the room it's just changed hands with a lot of maybe fraud and costs involved and you know a whole bunch of things you lose you know you forget the numbers or get the equation the uh um you can do that with a lot of things I mean it's been done throughout history uh certain things have value that don't produce something tangible I mean you can you can say a great painting you know probably will have some value 500 years from now may not but the odds are pretty good that it was a big enough name at some point there will be a few things I mean you know you can uh you can find something private if somebody wants to sell you a pyramid or something and you can charge the viewers or you know it'll be around a long time and and won't produce anything but but but uh people will find it interesting to go there because I read about the parents but basically uh assets to be that value they have to deliver something to somebody and uh uh and there's only one currency not this acceptable and I'd say I mean you can come up with all kinds of things uh we can put out Berkshire coins or you know we put up Berkshire money or anything like that but uh we get in trouble I guess if we call it money but uh in the end this is money and and there's no reason in the world why the United States government whose currency people prefer we literally there's 2.3 just under 2.3 trillion just of these little pieces of paper floating around some places seven thousand for every man woman a child in the United States and of course most of them probably are in the United States who knows but this is the only thing that's money and anybody that thinks the United States is going to change the way they let it Berkshire money replaced theirs you know it's out of their mind I mean so anyway uh with those few deficiencies uh you know you can whether it goes up or down in the next year or five years ten years I don't know but one thing I'm pretty sure of is that it it doesn't it doesn't multiply it doesn't produce anything it's it's uh it's got a magic to it and people have attached Magics to lots of things I mean it's a golden Wall Street Green magic you know we are not an insurance company we're a tech company well they're an insurance company but a dozen people or so I've raised a lot of money they just they just don't pay any attention to the fact that we sell insurance we are a tech company well in the end they brought insurance and overwhelmingly they've lost a lot of money since that it it you can you can bake up things that work well and getting money from other people and in my life I try and avoid things that are stupid an evil and make me look bad in comparison with somebody else and Bitcoin does all three and and the first place it's stupid because it's very likely to go to zero the same place is evil because it undermines they've had a Reserve System and the national currency system which we desperately need to maintain its integrity and government control and so on and third it makes us look foolish compared to the communist leader in China he was smart enough to ban Bitcoin in China with all of our presumed advantages of civilization we are a lot dumber than the communist leader in China yeah and when 25 of the people of the country get mad because we've said what we've said today just remember Charlie spoke last and was the most the one development that I really do think is actually important I don't know any way to do anything about it but I would my general assassin and there's no way to prove it but I essentially believe people are now behaving somewhat more tribal than they have for a long time and I mean people are always going to be partisan and they're they're going to have religious beliefs they're going to have all kinds of things but but it gets pretty it gets pretty tribal and I want to tell you I speak from experience because I've been tribal and you know we're confessing today uh and uh you know Nebraska football is tribal and when I watch a television set and I see our guys step s in Nebraska stepping out of bounds by a foot but some other rough misses it can calls it in and then they show six replays I'll continue to believe it was then even though it's right in front of my eyes they stepped out you know that's tribal behavior and and it's fun I mean participated but it gets it can get very dangerous when people one group of people say two plus two is five another say it's two plus two is three you know and they're going to give you those answers if you call them and the interesting thing is to me at least and partly because of my age but I actually think that just from memory uh that the last time that the country was seamless tribal was actually when I was a kid and Roosevelt was in either you hated Roosevelt or you loved them I mean nobody cared about the fact Alfred was running her window woke he was running against them they just had these feelings they either had Roosevelt's picture on the wall and name their kids after Roosevelt or they hated him and uh and they thought he was going to well no third term and you know I mean a million things and the country was very very tribal in the 30s but Roosevelt's tribe was bigger and in my opinion they did some wonderful things but I happen to grow up in a household where we didn't get served dessert until we said something nasty about roosevelty and believe me if you don't get dessert you're going to say something nasty about Roosevelt and so you trained them young and yeah all kinds of things and so I've been I've seen it I I think I've seen a period that it wasn't that way when you know Eisenhower was running against Stevenson or you know or whatever it might be I mean it uh you know people they didn't they didn't just they had a partisan behavior and they had a certain amount of tribal always but I I think that I don't think it's a good development for society generally when people get tribal regardless