저자: Develo4 · 한국인
요약 보기
FOMC 점도표에서 올해 인하 전망이 4회→1회(4회 예측자 감소), 3회 예측자 6→9명으로 증가해 '2회 우려'가 '3회 확신'으로 바뀌어 시장에 긍정적이라 주장. 파월은 인플레이션 완화 지연에도 고용 강세를 근거로 기준금리 인하 경로 유지, 양적긴축 속도 완화 언급. 금리 인하 전망(6월) 확률 60%→76.6%로 상승, 달러지수 급락. 미국 3대 지수 신고가, 비트코인 1억원 아래 조정 후 반등을 강조하며 '매수 유지' 권유. 멤버십 회원 대상 실시간 매매 공유를 홍보.
다듬은 글
This actually relieved the market's fears regarding two interest rate cuts, replacing them with confidence in a third. Hello, this is Develo 4, am starting by revealing my account details today. As the US stock market closed with a sharp rise, my direct US investment account climbed to an 80% return, with profits skyrocketing to 136 million won.
Additionally, my domestic account rose to a 70% return and surged to 8.2 million won in profit. With the surge in the second account, exchange rate gains, and a surge in Bitcoin, my total profit appears to have just exceeded 200 million won. Now, looking at the US stock market yesterday, the Bow, Nasdaq, and SMP 500 all surged as concerns that the FMC ES might scale back interest rate cuts were resolved.
As you can see on the screen, the market rose following the release of the FMC dot plot, and Powell's press conference led to an even greater rise. With this, we can see that all three major indices have once again hit new highs—that is, all-time highs. In a bull market, never sell; join me for the first round I have emphasized this ad nauseam in the video: "Let's keep buying." I sincerely congratulate those who showed courage during the first mass timing of the 'Puddle' trading method.
Now, I will share the key points from the FMC meeting held early this morning. If you watch just this one video, everything will be organized and understandable. First, we will look at the March Dot Plot. One of the things the market focused on during this FMC was how much the outlook would change compared to last December.
Inflation is not being well controlled, yet employment is strong and the economy is robust. On top of that, the stock market is surging; could the forecast possibly shift to two rate cuts this year? I shared in yesterday's video that this was what the market feared the most. If we examine the Dot Plot in detail, we can see that the number of members who predicted four rate cuts this year—which was four in the red-colored December Dot Plot forecast—has dropped to just one.
Also, the number of members predicting three rate cuts this year has increased from six last December to nine in this Dot Plot. In other words, most Fed members... three months ago The outlook for interest rates has become more conservative compared to December. However, a closer look reveals that the number of Fed members who expect three rate cuts this year has actually increased.
We can view this as a positive development that resolves uncertainty, as it has alleviated the market's fears regarding only two cuts by shifting the confidence toward three. Furthermore, examining the key details of the economic outlook SCP, we see that while the economic growth forecast has been raised, the inflation forecast has also been raised.
On the other hand, the unemployment rate forecast has been lowered. This offers a glimpse into the Fed members' views that while the labor market is more robust than expected and the economy is holding up better than anticipated, inflation is more persistent than expected. The GDP growth forecast for this year has been significantly raised from 1.4% to 2.1%, and growth is projected to reach approximately 2% in 2026.
This forecast surpasses the existing long-term trend of 1.8%. In other words, looking at this economic outlook in detail, it is an economic forecast that could instill optimism for a "soft landing"—even if it is Australia—and even raise expectations that the bull market of 1995 might be returning. Now, Let's take a look at the key points of Powell's press conference.
First, he addressed the questions the market was curious about. The market was most curious about why the plan to maintain three rate cuts this year is being pursued, given that high economic growth and solid employment are expected, while inflation remains sluggish. In response, Powell stated that January prices were high due to seasonal factors, and he believes February prices were not bad.
He added that since current inflation remains stable, the road to the 2% target will be rough, but he expects it to eventually slow down. He also explained that moving to easing policies too quickly could lead to a rebound in inflation, whereas moving too late could cause employment to collapse and put the economy at risk.
He expressed caution regarding the risk of a robust job market collapsing significantly, noting that the current employment market is resolving its issues and wage growth, which influences inflation, is continuously slowing. Furthermore, he commented on quantitative tightening, stating that the majority of committee members believe it is appropriate to significantly slow down the pace of quantitative tightening at present.
In other words, the pace of quantitative tightening will be reduced. The Fed has once again made dovish remarks. So, what we need to look at is the market's interpretation rather than the result. I always emphasize to you that we must examine the interpretation rather than the outcome. Looking at the market's interest rate outlook following the FMC press conference, the forecast that rates will be cut in June rose significantly by 60% to 76.6% yesterday.
Furthermore, after reviewing the dot plot, the market appears to have gained confidence that there will be a total of three rate cuts this year in June, September, and November. In other words, we can see signs of relief in the market. This indicates that uncertainty has been resolved following the FMC report, which naturally translates into positive news for the asset market.
The dollar index had recently risen due to concerns about tightening—that rate cuts might be delayed or scaled back—but we can see it plummeting after the FMC. Moreover, while a strong dollar typically has a negative impact on stocks and Bitcoin, this strong dollar has plunged due to the Fed's dovish stance, which naturally leads to a surge in the stock market and Bitcoin.
U.S. stocks and Bitcoin, which serve as hedge assets against the long-term decline in currency value, are naturally rebounding in the opposite direction. I sincerely congratulate those of you who are staying united with me without being intimidated. Both US stocks and Bitcoin have risen significantly, but many people are likely missing out on bull market opportunities this year.
In investing, there are those who drop out during bear markets, and those who exit early or fail to get on board in the first place during bull markets. That is why it is a system where only a tiny minority become wealthy. Recently, US stocks have been looking truly boring. They have been staying within that trading range for the past month, which is called a period of consolidation through sideways movement.
In other words, while it is not painful for the account to drop, it exhausts and bodes well for us as the account does not rise and merely treads water. However, I have consistently told you throughout this past month: "A dip is coming soon, so get ready to scoop." I have also continuously uploaded videos regarding the first buying opportunity whenever the price touched the 20-day moving average.
However, some people say things like, "He joined the membership but is n't telling us the buying timing." But that is merely worldly talk. Whenever a buying opportunity arises, I always produce a video the very next day. I have been doing this consistently for two and a half years. However, because real-time response is crucial in investing, I offer sharing my real-time buy and sell positions as a membership benefit, and video production is...
This is because it is difficult to provide real-time buy and sell orders since it takes a long time. Ultimately, if you gather together through my videos without viewing me through the prejudice that I only care about memberships, men, your accounts are likely already on the rise. Of course, if you join the membership, you can scoop up at a better timing, but I have been sharing my purchases via video for 2 years and 6 months.
In fact, if you look at videos from 2 years and 6 months ago, you can see a consistent pattern where I shared the video the day after the price touched the 20-day moving average. There are many people who are making profits just by watching my videos. However, if you join the membership, you receive the benefit of real-time sharing that allows you to scoop up at a better timing.
And the same applies to Bitcoin. Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped to 89 million won, but after digesting the FMC, it has risen 12% from its low point in just one day. I added to my position during the correction that lasted for a week. I shared with you, not just through the membership but through videos, that opportunities soon leave, you must act urgently during a Bitcoin correction, and that you must seize this opportunity now that Bitcoin has broken the 100 million won mark.
In fact, if you watched yesterday's video and bought along with me, you would be seeing a 7% profit in just one day. However I am concerned that you might miss out on a precious opportunity due to the negative mindset that you are only concerned with the membership. It is okay if you do not join my membership.
In fact, if you hold such thoughts, I believe it is better for me not to join either. Opportunities come very rarely in our lives, just like they do for me. If you seize these opportunities well, you will reach success, but if you miss them, you will fall into a puddle. Have n't you all regretted the past a lot?
What were your most recent regrets? "Ah, I should have gone all-in during the COVID crash in March 2020." "Ah, I should have bet on Development during the 2022 bear market." And those who seized these opportunities are rapidly becoming wealthy as their money generates more money on its own, thanks to their experiences of success and enduring through the bear market.
Just yesterday, when I was producing the Bitcoin video, Bitcoin was undergoing a major correction, and my return rate and profits dropped significantly as well. However, after I shared my purchases in real-time on the membership Telegram and then produced and shared the video, I checked my account today—just one day later—and found that my return rate has risen by 10% and my profits have increased by 7.5 million won.
The same applies to US stocks. Yesterday, before the FMC video... I produced this and warned that a major storm of volatility, involving both rises and falls, was coming. And now that the FM market has closed, the return has risen by 6%, and the profit has increased by a whopping 10 million won. I am currently in my early to mid-30s; I worked and studied day and night, and four years ago, I barely managed to save 50 million won for my wedding.
Now, four years later, I own a newly built apartment in the metropolitan area, and my financial assets exceed 500 million won. If you do not want to work three jobs, you must grow your money through investment no matter what. Money earns more money on its own; as time passes, it generates increasingly more wealth, creating asset income that is higher than your or my earned income.
So how long will you continue to be swayed by the majority? Well, of course, you have no choice but to be swayed by the majority. After all, the thoughts of the majority are embedded in the internet, news, YouTube, and everywhere around you. However, you must keep in mind that you must break away from that and become part of the tiny minority.
The reason I recommend the membership is that I, too, receive a vast amount of overseas investment materials in exchange for my own money. Why do I receive money in exchange for obtaining good investment materials and information? If you can receive value exceeding the money you pay, you should use that payment to further develop your life.
However, if you still don't understand this, it is perfectly fine if you don't sign up for the membership. You can earn enough income just from my videos. So please, don't look at me through biased eyes; I hope you always live with a positive and optimistic mindset. Please do not become someone who gets jealous for no reason, has a negative mindset, or is pessimistic.
I truly hate people who speak negatively or pessimistically. Successful people are all positive, optimistic, adventurous, and persistent. Since you only live once, I hope you will become that kind of person. Also, I hope you have an optimistic mindset that the assets we invest in will eventually appreciate, and that you and I will eventually achieve financial security.
I shared a lot of somewhat unnecessary personal stories in today's video, but I sincerely congratulate everyone who is currently making a profit. I will see you in tomorrow's video. Thank you.
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