저자: Dan-YourAverageInvestor · 외국인
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버크셔해서웨이가 1분기 13F에서 델타항공 약 26억 5천만 달러(지분 6%+)를 재매수했다고 주장. 델타의 2025년 매출 634억 달러, 2026년 목표 약 700억 달러, 아멕스 제휴 수익 82억 달러(2026년 90억 목표), 자유현금흐름 46억 달러, 정유소 헤지 효과 등을 근거로 델타가 PER 약 10배, 주가 약 71달러로 저평가되어 있고 적정가 90달러 가능성을 제시.
다듬은 글
Berkshire Hathaway just dropped its 13th F filing for the first quarter of 2026, and the headline is sending shockwaves through the airline sector because it shows that the Omaha giant has officially bought back into Delta Airlines. For context, the market has spent the last 6 years reminding everyone how Warren Buffett dumped the entire industry in 2020 at the literal bottom, vowing to never touch the airlines again.
But here we are with a new 2.65 billion dollar stake representing over 6% of the company. It's a move that signals a massive shift in how the world's most famous value investors view the stability of the modern airline oligopoly. We're seeing Delta trade around $71 today, which is a significant move from the lows.
Yet the data shows it might still be one of the most mispriced cash flow machines in the entire industrial complex. And of course, the most timely manner. I make sure to research and write all the scripts myself, so make sure to let me know if you see any areas that I can improve on. Without further ado, let's get straight into it.
To understand why Berkshire is back in, we have to look at the sheer scale of the revenue engine Delta has built since the pandemic. For the full year of 2025, Delta reported a staggering $63.4 billion in operating revenue. That isn't just a recovery number, it's a record. And if we look at the guidance for 2026, management is targeting roughly $70 billion.
Now, the reason this matters to a value investor like Buffett or his successor Greg Abel isn't just the size of the top line, but the quality of where that money is coming from. Most people still think of Delta as a company that sells seats on planes, but that's an outdated view. In 2025, their diversified revenue streams, which include things like their loyalty program, premium cabins, and maintenance services, grew 7% and now represents 60% of their total turnover.
The jewel in the crown is the American Express partnership. In 2025, that single relationship brought in $8.2 billion in remuneration. That is essentially high-margin cash that flows into the business regardless of where fuel prices are. For 2026, they've already raised that target to $9 billion with a long-term goal of hitting 10 billion.
When you have a partner like Amex paying you nearly $10 a year just to access your customer base, you aren't an airline anymore. You're a high-end financial services platform that happens to own wings. We also have to talk about the premium segment. Delta has successfully segmented the market in a way that allows them to capture the high-spending consumer who is largely immune to economic volatility.
Premium cabin revenue grew 14% in the first quarter of 2026 alone. While low-cost carriers are fighting over $10 differences in ticket prices, Delta is filling its front cabins with corporate travelers and high-net-worth individuals. This is exactly the kind of moat that fits the Berkshire criteria.
They've moved from a commodity business to a brand-driven, loyalty-anchored powerhouse. And then there is the maintenance, repair, and overhaul business, which they call TechOps. This part of the company is growing at a massive clip. They just secured a 10-year contract to service the Boeing 757 fleet for UPS, which is the largest deal in their history.
TechOps revenue is projected to hit $1.2 billion this year, up nearly 50% from where it was just a short time ago. This provides a steady, contractually bound revenue stream that diversifies the risk of flying. When you add it all up, the growth profile isn't just about more people flying. It's about squeezing more high-margin dollars out of every aspect of the aviation ecosystem.
Now, we have to address the elephant in the room, fuel prices. The early part of 2026 has been brutal for the industry with a massive fuel spike in March that saw jet fuel prices nearly double from the start of the year. Historically, this would have been a death knell for airline stocks, and it's why the sector saw a significant drawdown recently.
But, this is exactly where Delta's unique strategy shines. They are the only major carrier that owns its own refinery, the Monroe Energy facility. While their competitors were getting incinerated by soaring fuel cracks, Delta was able to use the refinery as a natural hedge. Management has stated that the refinery is expected to provide a $300 million benefit to the June quarter alone.
This vertical integration is something the market often overlooks until things get ugly. It's also a key reason why Berkshire likely felt comfortable stepping back in. They love companies that control their own supply chains and can survive macro shocks that would bankrupt their peers. Beyond fuel, the broader industry is finally showing the kind of capacity discipline that investors have begged for for decades.
The US market is essentially an oligopoly now, dominated by four major players. In the past, whenever airlines started making money, they would immediately flood the market with new seats, driving down prices and destroying their own margins. But, in 2026, we're seeing a much more mature approach. Delta has been leading the charge by holding capacity relatively flat, even as demand surges.
This gives them immense pricing power, especially in those high margin premium cabins we talked about. There's also the global context to consider. Corporate travel, which many pundits said was dead forever after 2020, has roared back to nearly 95% of its pre-pandemic volume. And it's not just the same old travel, it's more concentrated in the high-end segments.
People are willing to pay for reliability and a premium experience, and Delta has consistently ranked as the most admired and most on-time airline in the world. When you combine that brand equity with a more stable industry structure, the risk-reward profile starts to look very different than it did 10 years ago.
We're also seeing Delta expand its international footprint through joint ventures. They've built a network of partners that allows them to capture global growth without having to deploy all the capital themselves. This asset light approach to international expansion is another hidden layer of their strategy.
It's not just about flying planes from Atlanta to London. It's about owning a piece of the global travel infrastructure. When you look at the industry through this lens, it's not a cyclical gamble. It's a structural winner in a consolidated market. Let's get into the nitty-gritty of the numbers because this is where the real story of Delta is written.
For the full year of 2025, Delta generated $4.6 billion in free cash flow. That is after reinvesting over $4 billion back into the business. This level of cash generation is rare in the airline space. And it has allowed them to do something that investors have been waiting for. Pay down their debt. At the end of 2025, their adjusted net debt stood at around $14 billion.
To put that in perspective, they've reduced their adjusted gross debt by roughly $12 billion over the last 3 years. In the first quarter of 2026, they paid down another $760 million. Management is laser-focused on getting their balance sheet back to investment grade levels. And they are currently guiding for adjusted net debt to fall below 2019 levels by the end of this year.
For a company that was literally fighting for survival 6 years ago, this is a phenomenal turnaround. But it's not just about debt reduction. It's about the margins. In 2025, Delta achieved an operating margin of around 10%. For 2026, despite the fuel headwinds, they are guiding for 20% earnings growth year-over-year.
They expect earnings per share to range between $6.5 and $7.5. If they hit the midpoint of $7, they are growing at a rate that many tech companies would envy. Yet they are being valued like a dying industrial. One thing that often gets missed is the return on invested capital, or ROIC. Last year, Delta generated a 12% return on invested capital with a clear path to their long-term goal of 15%.
Most airlines struggle to even meet their cost of capital, but Delta is consistently creating value for its owners. This is likely why the new management team at Berkshire decided to pull the trigger. They see a company that is efficiently deploying capital in a way that its peers simply aren't. We also have to look at their liquidity.
Delta ended the first quarter of 2026 with over $8 billion in liquidity, including cash and undrawn credit lines. This provides a massive cushion against any future shocks. And because they have $40 billion in unencumbered assets, they have plenty of flexibility to fund their future fleet plans without having to take on expensive new debt.
They are essentially funding their growth through internal cash flow, which is the gold standard for any high-quality business. The market has been worried about a pre-tax loss they reported in the first quarter of this year, but here's the part most people miss. That loss was almost entirely driven by a $550 million mark-to-market loss on their equity investments.
It had nothing to do with their actual airline operations. In fact, their operating income was $501 million. When you strip away the accounting noise, the core business is incredibly healthy. It's this kind of data-driven analysis that separates the professional investors from the crowd. They see the underlying cash flow and the margin expansion while the rest of the market is focused on a temporary bottom line headline.
Now, let's talk about the price you're paying for this business. As of mid-May 2026, Delta is trading at around $71. If we use the midpoint of their 2026 earnings guidance, that's $7 per share, the stock is trading at a forward price to earnings multiple of just over 10. To put that in perspective, the broader market is trading at over 20 times earnings.
You are essentially getting a market-leading brand with a massive competitive moat and record cash flow for half the price of the average stock. But, here's where it gets even more interesting. If we look at the forward price to operating cash flow, the numbers look even cheaper. Delta expects to generate around 8.5 billion dollars in operating cash flow this year.
With a market cap of around 46 billion dollars, the stock is trading at less than six times forward operating cash flow. Historically, for a business of this quality, that is an absolute bargain. Most industrials with this kind of margin profile and market dominance trade at 12 to 15 times cash flow.
The market is pricing Delta like it's still the volatile boom or bust airline of the 1990s. But, the data shows it has evolved into something much more stable. The combination of the Amex revenue, the refinery hedge, and the capacity discipline has de-risked the business model significantly. Berkshire doesn't buy things because they are exciting.
They buy them because they are predictable and undervalued. At 10 times earnings and six times cash flow, Delta fits that description perfectly. We also have to consider the potential for capital returns. Now that they have successfully brought their debt down and are generating record free cash flow, the door is open for significant dividend increases or share buybacks.
They've already started paying a modest dividend again, but there is plenty of room for that to grow. If you're an investor who likes getting paid to wait, this is a very attractive setup. The analyst consensus price target for Delta is currently around 80 dollars, which represents about 12% upside from here.
But, if they can successfully execute on their TechOps expansion and hit that 10 billion dollar Amex goal, the fair value could be significantly higher. I calculate the fair value to be closer to 90 dollars when you factor in the high margin nature of their non-airline revenue streams. It's rare to find a blue chip company that is still trading at such a deep discount to its historical and peer multiples.
In summary, the reason Berkshire Hathaway is back in Delta is simple. They see a high quality cash generative business with a protected moat that is being sold at a bargain basement price. Delta has transformed from a cyclical airline into a diversified travel and financial services platform. They've managed fuel shocks better than anyone else.
They've cleaned up their balance sheet, and they are growing their highest margin business lines at a double-digit rate. While the rest of the market might be scared of the word airline, the smart money is looking at the actual cash being produced. Delta's future looks remarkably stable. And for an investor like Buffett or Abel, stability at the right price is the ultimate prize. . analysis.
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