저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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연준의 금리 동결(기준금리 4.25~4.5%)과 성명문 변화를 짚고, 트럼프의 유가·금리 발언 및 상업은행 계좌 거부(크립토 관련) 논란을 다룸. 미국 무역적자 확대와 재고 감소, 애틀랜타 연은 GDP 나우 하향(3.2→2.3)을 근거로 미국 경제가 침체 상태라고 주장하며, 관세가 미국인에게 특히 고통스러울 것이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
earlier today we got the highly anticipated pause from the Federal Reserve they stopped cutting rates at least for now they announced that rates would remain the same fed funds rate remains at four and a quarter to 4 and a half% I don't think anybody expected the FED to cut and nobody of course expected the FED to hike and the FED rarely likes to disappoint the markets and so we got nothing from the FED um there was a bit of a reaction but not much of a reaction I think it initially uh the markets reacted to a couple of tweaks to the language of the official statement um I think the most significant tweak was what was left out not what was add don't forget to hit that like button it really helps out the channel and if you want to stay updated with more content like this be sure to subscribe and click the Bell icon so you never miss a video he expects the price of oil to drop sharply and as a result of that big drop in oil prices he would demand that the FED cut rates immediately so that hasn't happened yet I mean oil prices have come down from the high they hit a week or two ago but they're still what 7273 a barrel that's not the type of price drop that Trump uh spoke about which would result in demanding that pal cut interest rates so he didn't say that he was going to demand that pal cut rates right away he predicated that on a big drop in oil prices so that the whole question was unfair but also did leasman really expect pal to answer that question because if I was pal if I had a private conversation with the president I'm not going to tell everybody what he told me I mean that then he's never going to confide in me again I mean if you have a private conversation you shouldn't ask hey what did the president tell you in confidence in private I mean you're not going to say so even if you know there was a conversation it makes sense that he's not going to tell the whole world about a conversation that took place in private but now that the government owns the bank nobody can get anything nobody gets their money now that the government's in charge except the receiver who's getting rich right who who takes money out every month right to do what I don't know right but any event um the reason that I didn't Bank crypto and I wanted to bank crypto I had a lot of friends you know that are in the crypto industry that had businesses that I would have loved to have banked I mean even though I don't believe in it I can Bank the companies that are involved in it I mean why not I mean I I could you know provide them with banking services and make money right I you know so um you know I mean we there are a lot of companies you know I I I didn't Bank gambling companies I didn't Bank uh online porn I didn't Bank um um what else uh yeah cannabis any of the cannabis companies I didn't I didn't Bank anybody who is politically connected I didn't Bank Charities right there there are all sorts of a types of accounts that we refused to open and and the reason was the Regulatory Compliance was tougher and with crypto right the the the risk was that there was money laundering going on there was tax evasion right not everybody who utilized crypto was evading taxes or laundering money but the incidence of people who were laundering money or raising taxes was higher in crypto than in other Industries and so the banks would have to have more scrutiny and the question was was it worth it was the extra AML compliance work that they would have to do to bank a crypto company was it worth the income that they would make from Banking and if it wasn't they do a cost benefit analysis and they make a decision but that was because of government regulations now so if the government lightens up on the regulations yes you know and and I was very critical of those AML regulations which I think is one reason that the government targeted me to take out my bank because I criticized all these regulations of course I abided by them that's you know that's what they found out when they audited our bank that gee shiff shiff abides by every one of these regulations that he criticizes right so then they had to find another pretense to shut down the bank because we didn't break any laws even though I thought the laws uh violated the Constitution uh on on you know for multiple uh reasons but then after pal like talked about just the regulatory environment and the banks and you know how you know they're operating with FDIC insurance and everything then then that's when the the reporter followed up and said well but you know but but what about you know do you think there's any risk here you know and and even about whe whether there's a problem with asset bubbles he was asked about asset bubbles in general and he acknowledged that stock prices you know remain elevated but he didn't mention that he was in any way concerned about bubbles or falling asset prices or any way tailoring his monetary policy uh to asset price which I think is just not true of course the FED is very much concerned about asset prices the last thing they want is asset prices to crash the reason that they pumped up the money supply so much specifically was to get asset prices to go up they were trying to create a wealth effect and they don't want to see a reverse wealth effect when all that wealth vanishes uh when prices come down but you know they asked him again about Bitcoin and that's when he said look I'm not going to comment on that you know people make you know their own decisions uh but he didn't come out and and and specifically criticize people who want to own Bitcoin and make it a part of their portfolio so I'm sure some people in the Bitcoin Community are going to try to figure out a way to spin uh what he didn't say into some kind of uh official endorsement to try to pump the price up even more anyway we got another commercial I got a lot more to talk about so stick around I will be right back they you know either can make more money selling them or not have to raise the prices right away but then if you look at the numbers that's not it because Imports were up by 3.9% I mean that's a big number but it's not crazy big it's the the exports exports went down by 4 and a half% so there's an even bigger drop in exports then there was an increase in Imports you can't explain that in any way by trying to front run the tariffs because the tariffs aren't going in the other direction uh unless you think that um our in fact if our trading partners were worried about retaliatory tariffs they would try to import more of our stuff before their government slapped tariffs on us but that didn't happen that way our uh exports went down and I think again that's evidence of a very weak US economy manufacturing economy that is is in recession that is incapable of producing these Goods also if you look at the December inventory numbers that came out also this morning inventory on a wholesale level for December was expected to rise 3% instead it went down by 0.5% that's a big drop in wholesale inventories by the way retail inventories also went down .3 they were expected to stay unchanged but if companies are trying to front run the the tariffs by importing a lot of stuff wouldn't their inventory go up but their inventory went down so it doesn't necessarily make sense that these companies are loading up on inventory when the inventory went down and as a result by the way of these two numbers the big trade deficit and the drop in inventories uh the Atlanta fed GD now uh which has its estimate for Q4 GDP slashed their number from 3.2 down to 2.3 that is a big move uh for one adjustment they normally don't move that much so that is a big you know decline in what the growth rate is and of course again I think we're in a recession I think these numbers don't really mean anything I mean I think the polls were a lot more meaningful that's why Donald Trump was elected president because we we were in a recession that the statistics didn't actually um uh validate or acknowledge but getting back to this trade deficit not only does it evidence a a very weak economy but it shows you how dependent we are now on the largest of the rest of the world and how the US Dollar's Reserve status has never provided a bigger crutch to the US economy because the only reason we're able to run these huge deficits is because the world will take our dollars in exchange for all these goods and without all these Goods our economy would implode because we have no ability to produce these Goods on our own and it also shows you how painful the tariffs would be if they are in fact enacted because we depend more on these foreign Goods we import more Goods than ever before and now Trump is is talking about adding to the price of those goods by imposing tariffs so if we've never been more dependent on foreign Goods then tariffs will never be more painful for Americans than they would be right now now again that doesn't mean I I'm against tariffs I'd rather have tariffs than income taxes but that's not the point the point is that Donald Trump is saying these are a Panacea because don't forget to hit that like button it really helps out the channel and if you want to stay updated with more content like this be sure to subscribe and click the Bell icon so you never miss a video
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