저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
Wood는 경제가 순차적으로 침체가 번지는 국면에서 이제 여러 부문이 동시에 침체하는 단계로 접어들고 있다고 주장합니다. 자동차, 설비투자(capex), 소비자 신뢰, 주택 시장이 모두 약해지고 있다는 것입니다. 그는 핵심 문제가 인플레이션이 아니라 디플레이션(물가 하락) 위험이라고 보며, 이것이 기업의 이익률을 압박하고 있다고 말합니다. 반면 AI로 인한 생산성 향상이 이 문제를 해결할 수 있는 방안으로 제시됩니다. 또한 엔 캐리 트레이드 청산이 시장 변동성을 키우고 있지만, 2008년과 같은 시스템 위기는 아니라고 선을 긋습니다. 다만 상업용 부동산은 특히 취약한 부분으로 지목합니다. 그녀는 이번 상황이 2008~09년의 반복이 아니라고 분명히 밝힙니다.
다듬은 글
uh we've seen Autos stall out uh they've kind of stabilized but stalled out at uh subpar meaning subnormal expansion rates uh we're seeing Capital spending come down we're seeing consumer confidence relapse uh housing was starting to pick up its head uh and and has relapsed again certainly if you're looking at sales so uh we've had a rolling recession and now we seem to be in the all at once phase as I'm sure you've noticed the stock markets uh correcting quite quite significantly uh the correction we've seen in the last week uh bond yields are falling um fairly dramatically uh commodity prices are falling and in some cases breaking down uh yield spread so the the spread between high yield bonds uh rates and um treasury bills I mean treasury bonds uh that spread is uh starting to Gap out uh so the fear is uh is is um seeping into the markets in many ways and in many indicators Kathy Wood an American investor in the founder CEO and CIO of Ark invest discusses the potential for an impending re session in this video major economies worldwide have reduced interest rates to between 1% and 0.25% in the United States rate Cuts might be on the horizon at the next fomc meeting in September as the FED held rates steady during the last fomc meeting as market prices declin following Corrections in the bond and commodity markets Kathy would asserts that this situation is not a repeat of the 2008 and 2009 recessions despite Rising fears driven by persistent inflation this inflation has been exacerbated by The fed's Continuous rate hikes since 2022 aimed at controlling inflation Kathy Wood explains the market implications and the impact on digital assets particularly Bitcoin as we bring you more clips from the interview take a moment to like the video subscribe to the channel and turn on post notifications for more video like this you can join the conversation by dropping your thoughts everything you do helps with YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the channel growth thank you and enjoy the video uh and we do have a point of view um and and so I'd like to introduce it um you've heard it here before if you've been listening but uh for those who haven't um I'm going to say this is slowly than all at once uh so we have been talking about the rolling recession uh that has been in place actually since the FED started raising rates in um 22 uh as soon as the FED started raising rates housing effectively went into a recession commercial real estate real estate office was already in a recession uh now multifam real estate seems to be um an issue now uh we've seen Autos stall out uh they've kind of stabilized but stalled out at uh subpar meaning subnormal expansion rates uh we're seeing Capital spending come down we're seeing consumer confidence relapse uh housing was starting to pick up its head uh and and has relapsed again certainly if you're looking at sales so uh we've had a rolling recession and now we seem to be in the all at once phase um uh many people are beginning to understand uh we think that um perhaps the idea that inflation is the problem has been misplaced and uh this rolling recession is going to end with pricing coming down so I've been saying the risk is deflation prices coming down and listening to Amazon's report uh last night it's clear the consumer wants lower prices and is getting lower prices um the consumer is not falling apart yet it's actually responding to some of the lower prices uh even in Autos uh but nonetheless falling prices which is a problem for companies um it means their margins are going to compress uh so the all at once has to do with deflationary signals now this week we got the PMI purchasing managers index and uh today the employment report both of those are recessionary so this idea of we're in a recession is beginning to um gain more traction uh and in fact the P rule in the unemployment report basically uh the unemployment rate going up by 50 basis points uh as measured on a 3month moving average basis relative to its low uh that triggered and so a lot more people are are now thinking recession now we're not thinking at all when we say all at once anything like 0809 in fact the rolling recession part of uh this scenario uh would argue against that um so we're not at all suggesting that but we are suggesting that this Focus now on pricing power is um is is going to be significant and the the reason it's significant is um you know in the early 80s when fed chairman vulker was um was trying to strangle in inflation out of the system with double digit interest rates uh well inflation was also at double digits so if he was going to make a mistake that was a big buffer to make a mistake our inflation rates today are much lower and so the FED actually has less room for error and I do believe that um higher for longer and thinking that inflation was the big risk out there um H has put us uh somewhat In Harm's Way but half of the solution is understanding the problem uh and so I think this cathartic moment is is good um it's painful very short term these Corrections are because there's a lot of confusion a lot of uh people have assumed that um uh the world was going to work one way and all of a sudden it's it's it's not and one of the things you'll hear about increasingly uh in the news I think is the idea that the carry trade which involves believe it or not um the yen is unwinding another Factor contributing to Market fluctuations particularly in the foreign exchange FX Market is the performance of the Japanese Yen against the dollar Japan recently raised its interest rate from 0% to 0.25% to address the Yen's depreciation against the dollar it is important to note that Japan's interest rate remains one of the lowest in the world this increase has triggered significant sell-offs and borrowers now face interest payments on their loans invested in dollar denominated assets let's hear more from Kathy Wood on this so if you look at the carry what people mean by the carry trade it means that um many investors and speculators uh borrowed Yen so they were effectively short Yen they borrowed Yen uh because the interest rates in Japan were so low so low relative to the rest of the world so they borrowed there and then redeployed those assets uh you know put them into dollar based assets or other currencies but primarily dollar often into our treasury bonds which were yielding more now uh since 2011 the Yen has either been depreciating or stable and so it was kind of safe if if you were making uh the BET to to short the Yen or borrow the Yen um that that you weren't taking that much risk and in fact if the Yen went down you got the benefit of that plus you were earning higher rates in the US some people think that part of the carry trade was uh from by borrowing Yen and then and then buying uh the mag 6 or one of the broad-based benchmarks in in the US the S&P 500 uh the NASDAQ 100 both of which are very heavily populated and weighted with the mag 6 so again that that we we don't know how much of this went on there are some guesses uh a Deutsche Bank study suggested it could be $2 trillion now think about that our GDP is roughly $25 trillion so can you imagine this carry trade um which was becoming a consensus trade to the tune of $20 trillion I don't know if that's true or not the other way to put it in perspective is uh I believe the global Equity markets today are priced uh at roughly $130 trillion uh SO2 trillion in the context of 130 trillion is also a very large trade uh in the market so um we we don't know the exact number uh it does make sense watching how violently the yen is actually appreciating now that this carry trade is unwinding so people who had bet on uh the Yen continuing to depreciate are changing their spots they're cutting their losses or they're getting margin calls and are having to sell since really the 089 crisis so we mark it maybe at 2011 2010 um in the private Equity private Credit World world uh there was a reach for yield um in a very low interest rate environment and so a very big trade We Believe has been uh private equity and and credit um moving into the multifamily space rents were good yields leveraging them up and so that's another source uh of uh debt that we're watching uh now uh private Equity private credit very often package uh this debt up um and many people say oh my goodness could this be a replay of 0809 we do not think so uh what happened back then was subprime mortgages were packaged into AAA instruments that should have never happened but the rationale was home prices uh across the country had never gone down pockets would go down but nationally never gone down of course that changed in ' 0809 I don't think we're in a repeat of anything like that um it's more commercial real estate specific and if we use a marker like in uh 1986 when when uh I guess the tax laws changed and took away the tax shelter status of real estate it hit commercial real estate very hard uh but the rest of the economy was uh spared so just want to when I say slowly and then all at once uh there are some trades that are are going to unwind here uh but we don't think that um anything systemic will take place what we do think though is this idea of deflation deflation prices coming down that is something unusual something uh we haven't experienced uh for a long period of time in terms of the aggregate price level and you know one month does not a trend make but the CPI did drop 0.1% while the PPI was up 0.2% that represents a margin squeeze for for Consumer oriented companies and we do think falling prices especially because um they're not expected um are going to hit margins and this is this is where we come in and I'll get back into this uh toward the end uh of uh this in the no but um Innovation solves problems and we think that artificial intelligence is going to solve uh a lot of margin problems is going to enable increasing productivity significant increases in productivity that might mean in the short term more unemployment um but we don't think it's going to get out of uh out of control that's our video for today featuring Kathy Wood the CEO and CIO of Ark invest Kathy provides insights and Clarity on the current developments in the stock market and recession Tendencies do you believe the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will positively impact the pricing of risk assets share your thoughts and observations in the comment section below don't forget to subscribe to the channel and give this video a thumbs up thanks for watching
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