저자: JeremySiegel및진행자Just-InvestToday · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 시겔 교수는 연준이 인플레이션을 과소평가해 완화를 과도하게 했고, 이제 긴축을 지나치게 이어가 경기와 주가를 해치고 있다고 비판한다. [연준 비판] 2021년 당시 파월 의장과 옐런이 인플레이션을 일시적(transitory)이라 했고 금리 인상이 필요 없다고 봤으나, 원자재·주택가격이 급등한 뒤였다. 시겔은 연준이 자산매입으로 주가를 부풀렸다고 본다. [현 상황 진단] 원자재, 에너지, 주택시장, 주식이 하락하는데도 연준은 2023년까지 긴축을 지속하려 한다는 것이 핵심 문제다. 금리를 과도하게 올리는 것은 말이 안 되며 인플레이션 억제에 그 수준까지 갈 필요가 없다는 주장이다. [진행자 견해] 주택 시장이 무너지고 유가·원자재도 하락 중이어서 물가 지표가 혼재되어 있다고 본다. 임금 측면에서는 기업들이 인건비를 줄이고 해고를 하며 경제에 부담이 된다고 언급한다. [투자 전략] 전반적 하락 압력을 인정하되, 저평가된 우량 기업(바이두, 메타, 버크셔 등 언급)을 분할 매수(DCA)하라는 조언이다. 5~10년 장기 관점에서 경쟁력이 유지되는 기업을 사라는 메시지다. [시장 전망] 단기 주식 하락 압력이 계속될 것으로 보며 준비가 필요하다는 입장이다. 다만 단기 방향은 명확히 예측하지 않는다. [결론] 시겔은 연준 긴축 정책을 비판하며 금리 인상이 과도하다고 보고, 인플레이션이 이미 둔화 중이니 완화할 때라는 취지다. [출연자 전망 요약] 2022년 9월 기준 연준 긴축이 과잉이며 경기침체 위험이 크다는 시각. 장기적으로는 우량주 보유를 권한다.
다듬은 글
when we had booming commodity practical housing prices rising at the fastest rate in post-war history uh when we had all Commodities going up at rapid rates uh fed uh chairman Powell and the FED said we don't see any inflation we see no need to raise interest rates in 2022. now when all those very same Commodities and asset prices are going down he sees uh you know stubborn inflation that requires the FED to stay tied all the way through 2023.
hello everyone welcome back to justinvest today and that was amazing we have Jeremy Siegel ripping the FED he is killing them for what they're doing in the market they are causing a recession-sized depression they've been switching the definition of a recession and what's going on in the market they don't know what the hell they are doing and they doing the opposite of what they're supposed to do do you agree do you disagree let's get into this video Let's respond to what he's saying and he's saying a lot man he's a Wharton Professor he wrote a book on stocks for the long run so let's hear what he has to say about everything happening in the market because we know right now the market has been getting killed this is one of the worst years on record 23 down and I feel like we still have a long way to go guys let's prepare ourselves let's listen to what he has to say and let's get at it subscribe to my Channel right now let's get into this video game precarious Place yeah certainly you know what I find very amusing a year ago at that September when we had Umar history uh when we had all commodity going up at rapid rates uh uh chairman Powell and defense we don't see any inflation we see no need to raise interest rates in 2022.
do you remember when they actually said that Janet Yellen came out and said damn this is all transitory Jerome Powell came out to them this is all transitory this is not really inflation because of what was going on when they shut everything down now it's coming all back to bite them and this is what they're not realizing is that they did all this damn quantity to be easing buying bonds buying mortgage-backed Securities investing in stocks doing all of that nonsense and just inflating stock prices economy and now they have to go on the other opposite side because they lie to themselves they really believe that everything was just transitory this was nothing Kathy Woods even came out and said the same damn thing she didn't even believe in this was a real inflationary period you see all these people probably conjugated in some freaking room and said nah this is all fake fake news Donald Trump fake news fake news now it's coming all to roast and this is the problem because now they have to revert their stance which is killing the economy killing stock prices killing the bond market commodity Energy prices everything has been going down this is all happening because you have a Fed that just refused to believe what was happening in the real economy at that time when they did all of this easing now when all the very same Commodities and Enterprises are going down he sees uh you know stubborn inflation that requires the FED to say hi all the way through 2023 and that's the problem he's gonna do more tightening even though everything has been going down have you been seeing the housing market that housing market has been getting crushed rinser up like it's getting out of hand right now so I really wonder how much longer can you last by just increasing the interest rates increasing the industry increasing their interest rates every damn freaking next meeting like how is this gonna play out doing no sense to me whatsoever way too tight we do not have to get anywhere near that level to stop inflation because oh do you guys believe that he's saying that inflation is basically stopped I'm not sure if that goes back to the energy Market that goes back to rents because rents are pretty much up because people have to or landlords have to actually increase their rents because mortgage rates I'm not sure if that has to do with food I feel like all of those indicators are up which have a huge proportion on inflation but the housing market has been getting crushed oil prices are having been getting kind of crushed commodity yes I agrees probably Commodities have been getting crushed to so I feel like it's like a balance like what's really happening in the real world it's like damn some markets or some sessions are getting increased prices increase everything and then the other sector has been going down so it's like what is Jerome Powell really really looking at when you say inflation is just getting out of hand you can see what's happening next next week guys he is mad mad he's big mad his stocks must be getting crushed like the rest of us for the first time in years when it comes to wages you see everyone man you see everyone cutting costs cutting jobs that is kind of killing the economy as well Loki people are talking about it but not enough man every big company is cutting jobs they don't want to pay people as much money they're giving them Less hours like stuff is happening with these companies man it's getting killed especially if you're in Tech you're probably feeling it 10 times harder equation I mean the workers are trying to get what a little bit back exactly the same mistake on the other side that they've made a year ago be big mad those who agree with you yeah but saying it doesn't do anything for the scenario that we're currently in if they continue to do it whether you think it's right or wrong if they continue to do it what does it mean for sauce probably one of the factors the highest in 20 or 30 years so you're still going to see a lot of pressure on stocks and you have to prepare for this if you find undervalued companies right now whatever company you're looking at if it's Baba if it's meta if it's Berkshire I think those companies are undervalued I'm not saying buy them but man I feel like it's a perfect time to just DCA into them man just slowly pick at them you don't have to blow your whole damn load into them right now but come on guys if you find a company that's undervalued at a good price buy into it if you think the next five ten years for the company are gonna still be solid buy into it now because you don't know if the price or the stock is going to shoot up next week next month next year maybe it's too late remember when everyone thought back in 2020 that the market was just going to continue declining and everything shot right back up who knows if that's gonna happen again even though it's a rare chance it's gonna happen out in this market you just never know you can't predict these things so I'm saying if the company is undervalued if it's a good company has a competitive Advantage this DCA buy into it now don't wait and wait and wait and hold on and hope that it's just a client smart because you don't know if that's gonna happen so buy stocks if they're undervalued which is going to show the greatest Supply in five months for every maturity what does that mean what is the record decline in the money supply me I mean what is what is the collapse of the commodity crisis mean what is the of these housing indicators that are 40 of the foreign for the next 12 to 15 months um that's not an accurate view of what it is I mean there were no questions those are all amazing questions to ask man if you really ask a Fed that I guarantee you drone power have no answer to those questions man the FED does not really know what it's doing even though they say they do but in my opinion guys sometimes you gotta ignore all these indicators all these facts just by these undervalued companies at good prices wait five ten years down the road if they're still competitive if they're still providing a lot of value to customers customers still enjoy the products they buy everything the whole macro the micro will outweigh that so guys even though these are good questions to ask they're hard questions to ask we might not even get the answer even if you ask drone pal this he might even not even know the answer next year next two years but we're making bets for the next five to ten years so guys what do you think about all these damn questions about inflation do you think Jerome Powell is doing the right thing by thinking rates like crazy do you think he's doing a bad thing like Jeremy single is saying is that it's too much inflation's already going down so you can kind of ease it off guys leave your comments down below like this video And subscribe to my channel peace
Comments 0