저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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Yardeni는 미국 경제의 회복력과 소비자 견고함, 생산성 향상(AI 포함)으로 1920년대식 호황 가능성을 주장한다. 명목 GDP가 기업 이익을 견인하며 시장 확대(493개 기업 확산)를 기대하고, 연준은 12월 금리인하 이후 방향이 불확실하다고 본다. 노령화 베이비붐 자산과 대형 기술주 집중 리스크는 크게 우려하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
Hello everybody. Good morning everyone. Tom Keane, Paul Sweeney, Michael Bar, Lisa Mate. We welcome all of you across the way. You listen to us on Bloomberg radio, on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg podcast and we welcome Bloomberg television worldwide, particularly the evening of the Pacific Rim and over to India.
Thank you so much for joining us uh today. Sweeney with makeup. I have no makeup. No, Ed Yard Denny said I'm not wearing makeup in this hour. Mr. Yardenny in studio, a gift for you from Team Surveillance. Dana Telsey on Retail America. Julia Coronado. To me, the key thing with the Fed is not are they going to raise uh cut rates, but are they going to do it two, three, four times?
Major mystery. I'm looking at the warp function here. Got an 80% chance of a rate cut here in December. That's good enough for I think the market. We'll see what they do in the new year. Futures futures up 11 now after the CME uh suare that we've had this morning. The VIX I still get a good VIX quote there, Tom.
Yeah, we'll have to see. We'll see if we get under to a 16 anal Oliver Chen on Madison Avenue luxury here coming up as well with TD at Cow and right to it from the interactive broker studios for you worldwide. Lisa Matteo, you said it. Futures. Yeah, advancing on this day after Thanksgiving, but it's an early close.
Don't forget the stock market closes 1 p.m. Wall Street time. The bond market open until 2:00 p.m. Wall Street time. S&P futures rising a tenth of a percent. Same for Dow futures. NASDAQ futures up 2/10 of a percent. Over to the yield space, the 2-year 3.47%. That's little change. And the yield on the 10ear 3.99% and that is little change.
The Bloomberg dollar spot index not much movement there. Bitcoin up about 1% at just above 92,000. A few stocks to check in with. Alphabet up more than 1%. Amazon up Amazon up nearly 1%. Black Friday shopping moving into full swing. That is your Bloomberg business flash. Paul and Tom. Lisa Mata, thanks so much.
This is our Thanksgiving gift to you and it is not only the question of nailing this bull market. Edard Denny lonely I'm going to give Ralph Vanmpora uh joy as well a few October ago saying get on board but it is someone who's taken Yale economics and folded it into his strategy for participating in the American experience.
No one has done this in the last three, four years postco like Edward Jardenni. We're honored he joins us in our studio today. Are you here just as an excuse before shopping? Shopping? Are we shopping after? No, no, no, no. I came just for you. And not only that, I I figured it wouldn't be much of a traffic jam on the Long Island Expressways.
True. So, it's a combination of your request and it's a perfect day to commute. How do you extrapolate? The first question for Global Wall Street is to say Yardeni as an audacious call that everyone's catching up to SPX this Dow 53,000 whatever. What is the the Yard Denni process to extrapolate out?
Well, I think that uh what we've gotten right over the past few years is the resilience of the economy uh which is then of course related to the resilience of the consumer. And I think I sort of had inside information. I'm I'm a I'm a baby boomer and I'm seeing all my friends retiring and then I'm looking at the data from the Fed and it shows that the baby boomers have $80 trillion of net worth.
It's the wealthiest generation ever to retire. Thank you. And you know I I guess some of them intend to spend it all because the kids didn't listen, you know, they didn't clean up the room, whatever. But it's a lot of money and and I also see a lot of my friends helping out their adult kids with mortgage down payments with mortgage payments uh and with the kids uh you know after school activities.
So there's a lot of trickling down going on and I think that consumers been resilient. I've also been talking about the digital revolution uh with the technology boom. I mean, it was back in 2020 that I started to posit that this could very well be the roaring 2020s. And so far so good. So far so good.
I've and on that front, I've told my kids the last check I write is going to bounce. So, you know, get to work. Um, so Ed, given that backdrop here, um, what is your view of this economy here? I mean, the labor market, people are a little concerned about the labor market. How do you think about that?
Well, one of the reasons we talked about the roaring 2020s is uh we we anticipated that there would be a slowdown in the availability of labor. Baby boomers would be retiring and um we also would find that u uh as a result of that companies would be under a lot of pressure to increase their productivity.
Y and perceived that there were a lot of technologies that existed in not too long ago in 2020 and that uh we did spotlight that AI could be an important technology. never expected it would just come out of the blue in 2022, but it did. And so we think that technology technologies are there to increase the productivity of workers.
And we're seeing that just even now I mean second and third quarters looks like real GDP is up almost 4% each of those quarters. And at the same time the BLS has been reducing the uh forecasts and anticipation of what the labor force will be. That adds up to tremendous productivity which is great for real purchasing power of consumers by the way.
Edard Denny with us folks. The celebration is Friday after Thanksgiving. We welcome all of you. Paul help me. 1 p.m. is equities close 2 p.m. bonds, right? That's nuts. Why do they do two separate times? I don't know. I don't know who's in charge of this stuff. We welcome all of you across uh the surveillance nation on all the ways you listen to us on YouTube.
Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast. And of course, we welcome Bloomberg television worldwide. A special good morning, Jima Brucheti in Dubai. She's pretty killing it on Horizons. Good morning in the Middle East uh on this special day for America. Futures up 11 now. Futures up 48. Uh Ed Yard Denny with us as well.
I want I I want to describe this Ed because I think it's important. James Tobin came out of Harvard studying under Shumpeder. Basically the Nobel Prize this year folks was a Nobel Prize Shumpeder never got went down to a school in New Haven, Connecticut. And under him was Villim Bouter, Edmund Phelps, uh a young lady, Janet Yellen as well.
Phillip and I were uh were there at the same time getting our graduate degrees and it's just really really really a austere in the heart of Tobin and his wonderful eclectic economics of the 20th century was pay attention to nominal GDP. To me the great missed call here to bring it over to corporate is animal spirit.
Yeah. Does your bull market extrapolation hinge just simply on nominal GDP? Well, it does uh certainly nominal GDP runs profits and profits run nominal GDP and runs revenues and runs revenues at the top of the income statement, right? And uh you know, profits uh typically lead to companies expanding their operations u in both labor and in capital.
In the current situation, as we just discussed, there's a shortage of of of labor. So, we're seeing a lot more spending on capital to increase the productivity of labor. And it's all good. Productivity is like fairy dust. It makes everything better. It makes real GDP better, right? Uh it makes inflation lower.
And so you still get an increase in nominal GDP, but it's the right mix. Let me get one more in here because Paul's got like eight questions. With that said, when you look at Mag 7, which you have nailed, they're not under the same microeconomics of traditional corporations, are they? Discuss that. Well, they they have some of them have moes around them and uh it's kind of like Game of Thrones where you know one is rising and another one's falling and it's uh a very dynamic situ situation.
Uh but they do account for 30% of the market cap of the S&P 500. Uh but they also account for something like 25% of the earnings. Paul, can you see Zuckerberg going cue the dragons? Exactly. So yet as we as as we think about what a lot of people have called concentration risk in this marketplace, is that a risk to you?
How concerned are you about it? Well, it's not a cons concern to me because these companies are earning a lot of money and they have a tremendous amount of cash flow and they also basically have in internal investment banking departments uh where they are able to find small companies that they can leverage up in their businesses.
I think it's one of the reasons that midcap small and midcap managers have been frustrated because uh anytime that they put in the next Microsoft in their portfolio it gets bought out bought out. Exactly. Well, how about for the smaller midcap uh investors out there presumably lower interest rates should help those companies.
Is that enough? I I think we can see it in in the way things trade. Whenever there's expectations that the Fed will lower rates, the the Russell 2000 does better. The problem is the Russell 2000 has what something like 40% of companies that don't have any earnings. That's a little bit of a problem. But when people are excited and you know, risk risk on they're willing to buy those kind of companies.
Uh but my preference is uh the S I call them the impressive 493. Y everybody's focusing on the Magnificent 7. There's 493 companies in the S&P 500 that are going to benefit are benefiting from what the Magnificent 7 are creating. These companies, the Magnificent 7 aren't going to continue to do well unless their products really do improve productivity for the 493.
I think that's happening and I do expect that the market will will broaden out. What is our Federal Reserve going to do here? I think the market's saying December we're going to get a rate cut. After that, not sure. Well, the Fed really frustrates me for the past few years. Every now and then I've written that I be more than happy to uh do what the Fed does for half the price.
Uh and my condition is I continue if they allow me to to work from home. I don't I wouldn't do regulation or supervision just macroeconomic policy. Uh but uh a year ago when they started cutting rates, you know, they're down 150 basis points since September of last year. I said I don't think that's a good idea because the economy is doing pretty well and inflation's still above 3%.
But they just wouldn't listen to me. They did it anyways. And you know what? The bond yield went up last year. Remember they they cut the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points. My friends, the bondage took it up 100 basis points. So Taylor rule with plugins. I can go eight ways here folks on the plugins of Taylor rule.
I'm I'm going to say this Dr. Yodenni as clearly as I can with the pandemic and with this original productivity experiment we're working. They're flying blind if they're make I mean you know with me Pharaoh Bremo sitting on the set the Fed decides we're making it up as we go. Well they basically admit admit as much in their dot in their dot plot in the dot plot you know when you ask what is the neutral rate so oh on average we think it's 3%.
But then when you look at the dot plot it's somewhere between two and 4% is the kind of range you get. So they have no idea what the neutral rate is. I I think you have to look the neutral rate post after the fact. I got one final question. Kurt Sup is is out in Indianapolis for Creative Financial Group and he's writing up these brilliant mistakes you make in retirement tweets.
Real value ad Kurt Su P can't say enough about how he gets you thinking. How is Edardenni saying we should invest if we're all going to live forever? Well, I I I think the baby boomers especially were raised by Spock and I I know Dr. Spock has some influence on our our mothers, but um Spock from Star Trek basically told us live long and prosper and that's what we've been doing.
So, uh I I think we you know all investors should assume they're going to live long and along the way should they should let the magic of compounding really make their retirement uh very very prosperous. Michael Bar emails in. He's already on the way back to pick up the pieces after the Lions lost. Ed your Denny, ask him about his dog.
Did you bring your dog today? No, I you know, we have four King Charles Cavaliers and and Max always likes to take a snooze on my couch in my office. So, Max is is very very famous. I watched the dog show yesterday. Did you? Great stuff. Yeah, that was great. Yeah. Yep. So, some beautiful dogs. This dog shined.
Oh, I knew one best in show. I forget. I forget. See that? Yeah. But it was a But it really is true. If you want a friend, get a dog. I I bought puppy sweaters from Kine Styles Manhattan yesterday. I had to reorggage the middle child. Yep. They're expensive. They are expensive. It's outrageous. If you get If you get a dog, make sure you get health insurance.
Sure. Absolutely. Yeah. Well, with kennel fee, it's hopeless. Ed Yardi, thank you for joining us worldwide today. Just a real treat after Thanksgiving again. worldwide on Bloomberg television, on Bloomberg radio. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning.
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