저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 수요가 공급을 크게 웃돌며 엔비디아 수요/공급 12:1이라고 주장. 구글 TPU 등 경쟁 칩은 엔비디아보다 3~4년 뒤처지나 일부 용도에선 충분하다고 봄. 애플은 AI 전환 시 주당 75~100달러 추가 가치, 구글과의 제휴 베팅. 메타는 AI 투자 우려로 20% 하락했으나 매수 추천. 테슬라는 로보택시·옵티머스 중심 성장론, 마이크로소프트를 최고의 매수 종목으로 지목(목표 +100달러, 오픈AI 연계 우려는 과도하다는 취지).
다듬은 글
; This is Daniel Ives of Wedbush. First of all, rocking it out of Las Vegas with Aston Martin. For those of you in radio, he's got the real jacket on, like the kind that Lance Alonzo wear and all that. What in Formula 1 with all the excitement, Apple taking over the broadcast, Cadillac coming in next year.
when you're in the pit like you were, what's what's the thing that you don't know when you watch on TV? I think I mean my experience with the F1 I think the thing that people don't realize not just how loud it is, but especially like when you're in there and you actually have like the headphones on and you hear them talking to the drivers, just the complexity.
I mean, that's the thing. It's like it's it's really amazing. Did you change a tire? I I did, but I will tell you at at Indie 500, I came close to almost change your entire Okay, 10 eyes. Investors can own it, Tom. Liberty Media, you can own Formula 1. FK is the ticker. Liberty Media, you could own it as a public investor.
Why is Apple doing that? Explain. Just go tangential. Paul's dying to get to Nvidia and you know the the Google thing and all that. Why is Apple doing Apple TV? It's called Dad TV cuz no one watches it. They got some product out. They've had some successes, but why waste their time on that? Yeah, I would.
I mean, to me, it's really it's all about where they're ultimately going to take this. I mean, in the future and and we'll see as Apple ultimately goes down the path with Gemini and in terms of the AI future, they need to have as wide of a content lens as possible. And I think when you look at Apple TV, it's all part of, look, the quality speaks for itself.
Quan's been the issue, but for them it's just they're gonna continue to have irons in the fire. That's what they're going to do. The TV show Plurabus, it's a sci-fi thing. She's home all alone. Everybody around her is like a droid. She's watching surveillance. It was great. Why don't you get to Nvidia right now, Paul?
So, Dan, the AI story here took a little bit of a turn over the last couple of days here. Meta placing a big chip order with Google, further calling into question the position or the dominant position of Nvidia. give us your thoughts about that whole thing. I mean, look, uh, Google TPU if you and especially with with Broadcom and TSMC is the is the builder that's been around for over a decade, right?
So, it's not that it's new per se. I think the issue comes down to demand and supply for Nvidia chips are 12 to1. So, the reality is demand to supply of Nvidia chips 12 to1. Wow. So, look, when you look at Meta, like they're not going to be able to get everything they need from Nvidia. So, they got to look outside.
When you look what Google has, I'd say it's really it's by 3 to four years behind where Nvidia is. But again, on some certain instances, it could be good enough. And look, that's where we're going. I mean, the reality is when it comes to AMD, when it comes to big tech, eventually you're going to see Apple, you're going to see Meta, you're going to see Microsoft, they'll build their own chips as well.
But there is one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution. That's Nvidia. So that's kind of how I thought about yesterday. I was kind of surprised to see the sell off in Nvidia because my thought was all I hear from guys like you and and technology folks coming in here is that the demand for AI is just I'm not going to say insatiable but boy it's outstripping supply for sure and you got to get what you can get when you can get it.
Look just spending 3 weeks in Asia I mean we've seen demand accelerate 30% in the last 6 months for AI. So it comes down to like it's easy to call say AI is a bubble in the spreadsheet on 25th floor of New York City office building but when you actually see what's happening there look only 3% enterprise in the US have gone down the AI path none in Europe Asia exchina none and now you're seeing sovereigns in Middle East and for the first time in 30 years US is ahead of China when it comes tech you're a pinata on Wall Street people love to go after you on Twitter it's the close it's the act and all that underneath it we Know folks, not only Dan Eyes but Wed Bush, there's some prodigious tech chips like going to Asia, like actually walking in a factory.
Find out what's going on. Here's the reality for our listeners, our viewers worldwide. April 3, a leading newspaper just reporting the news. Apple Shells shares fell more than 9% in response to the president's plan for steep tariffs on products made abroad led a sharp selloff in tech stocks which is loaded with technology.
OMG April 3rd sank nearly 6%. Apple is up 65% printing 280 yesterday. How do our listeners and viewers digest the news and the day-to-day panic and yet stay on board this historic American path? Look, and we've talked about so much on this show over the years, right? I mean, the reality is is that there's no bigger consumer install base in the world than Apple.
2.4 billion iOS devices, 1.5 billion iPhones, and it comes down besides just the cash generating machine, everything that we see in services. the when you look at the AI revolution, okay, they've loo they've watched it from the stands so far, but now they're about to get into the field and actually do it and monetize the install base.
The consumer AI revolution comes through Apple and I think that's something that we're going to see with Google partnership and others. And Tom, I just continue to view it as like $75 to $100 per share incremental will be added to Apple for AI. And that's my view like they've David and also look at this iPhone 17.
It's been a surprise upgrade cycle than no one expected with with Gemini. Is Apple under less pressure to do something? This whole do something do something. I'd say more pressure, but they couldn't do it till Google ultimately won the DOJ suit. Once they won the DOJ suit, that's where the candlelight dinner between Sundar and Cook start.
And I think that's that ultimately is now where that's tracking to what what can be a deal that couldn't have been until they won that deal. And and I think that's that's where they're going to go. They're not buying perplexity. They're going with Google. They're going to go down bet heavily on them.
Dan is with Red Bush with us here on a Wednesday before Thanksgiving as you get ready to travel. The horde comes over to the house. We say good morning all the different ways you listen to us. Thank you for discovering Bloomberg's surveillance in 2025. We'll be here Friday. Paul Sweeney, your people, it was a big argument, was it?
I mean, your people went back and forth on this, but we'll be here Friday after Thanksgiving. Paul, Dan, talk to us about Meta a little bit. I think that's one of the ones the market's unsure of as it relates to the AI play there. Stocks down about 20% from its recent high. So, some concerns there. How do you position that?
I think I mean it's it's a table pounder buy because the reason that stocks off is because Zuck right now wartime CEO focused on increasing capex over the next year in this arms race and you're and you're seeing obviously pressure in terms of earnings and cash flow but that's that's what you want to see them do.
you were talking about monetizing the AI revolution over the coming years, the 3 billion, you know, users that they basically have when it comes to their consumer ecosystem. And that's the smart move. I think right now investors, it's very easy kneejerk with the bur, the AI bubble, all the worries. The reality is that there's two more years at least left in this tech bull market.
You're in year three of an 8 to 10 year build. It's truly a fourth industrial revolution. I think meta is going to be proved that this is the right move what they're doing in the zeitgeist this weekend is the partition that yes we appear to be using AI for search stuff and Paul Sweeney the other day goes should I go with Ocean Spay cranberry or something homemade you know that kind of stuff or like taskdriven AI when do you perceive America makes the shift to a more sophisticated use of AI
yeah it's Great. But today it's enterprise. I mean the reality is the consumer AI revolution hasn't started chat GPT and we see that but it's all enterprise. I mean the spending we're talking about called next 2 to three trillion is just enterprise. When it talks about consumer it's our autonomous humanoid robotics.
It's the future the consumer. I don't want a goddamn robot to make my cranberry sauce. Listen you're again and I continue to make the call. Keen will be in a robo taxi in New York City other day into that. I thought it was Ed Ledlo. And again, you never know. It could be Lelo. So, all right, let's go to that robotics and all that kind of stuff cuz that's kind of the story behind Tesla these days.
It's not about bending steel and making cars and things like that. So, um the stock's up 4% year to date. So, it's really lagging the market. Um it's come back from I guess the the biggest concerns uh where we were several months ago. But what when you talk to your institutional investor clients what are they telling you about Tesla?
I mean it's the it's all about the future. I I believe autonomous and ultimately Optimus Robot will be the most important chapter ever in Tesla's growth story and I think now Musk being wartime CEO having the comp package you know potentially trillion dollar man this will now define Tesla. And I also think you're going to see a regulatory road map that's going to ease when it comes to autonomous specifically on the robo taxi build that you're going to have 3035 cities and I think we is basically going to be a rounding error relative to where I see Tesla.
Let's go to our three radio stations. Good morning 929 FM 991 FM Nathan Hager radio in Washington here. Bloomberg 1130. How does a robo taxi get across the Charles River right by MIT? How does a robo you turn left there at sport? How does a robo taxi get around Dupont Circle? How does a robo taxi get down Fifth Avenue right outside the Trump Tower?
I don't get it. Look, I mean, if you look, it's it's data driven. I mean, the reality is is that is there proof of concept that they can handle normal urban traffic? what everything I've seen and obviously we've been there in Austin. You're going to continue to see it expand, you know, across, you know, many cities over the next few months.
I believe we're we're there. Now, I'm not saying that there there's you're going to see the geoence area continue expand, but it's my view next few years 20% of cars on the road when you're whether it's New York City, whether it's Boston, whether it's Chicago, you're going to look around and you're going to and you're not going to see a driver.
Enough chat. What's your single best buy right now? Is it Meta or is it something different? I mean to me single best buy right here is Microsoft relative to what we see in terms of the stock. Why is it down? Because the view that now Google, now Amazon, others on the hypers scale are going to sort of eat their lunch.
Look what's happened to Oracle as well. It just look New York City cap driver was bearish on Alphabet and Google to start the year. Today they're bearish on Microsoft and I think that's why that has a $100 upside is is okay on on Microsoft just is is is one example. I I are they open AI Sam what's his name?
Sam Alman. Sam Alman. Yeah. Are they down because they're affiliated with Sam Alman? I think just like just like Oracle there's that too big to fail concept, right? where anyone that touches open AI that's ultimately been an overhang. But it comes down to like that would be like me being like, okay, if I could have more Peter Luger stake, would I have it or would I rather own White Castle?
The MX you got at Wed Bush. You got to be going Peter. Again, you got to go Luggers. But the reality is that Open AI, it's the Peter Luggers of technology. You want to be associated with it, not not associated. Those of you on YouTube, the interns are in our ears. We got these holiday interns and Sweeny's intern is from Penn State.
I'm shocked. Nobody cares. We are. Paul, Dan, Penn State, go Paul. Who's going to be the coach, do you think? I mean, look, I think we'll we'll see it probably Monday. Oh, okay. That that was I mean, really that soon? I I continue to think it's, you know, it's either Chznney from JMU. Yeah, that um you know, or I there could be a mystery candidate that we'll see how that emerges over the coming days.
So I think a big a mystery can a mystery hill. No, not no not that. No, please. We we better days are ahead for Penn State after a dark year. Okay. All I ask you're such a hitter and you're so F1. Next time you go to F1, take young John Pharaoh with you. First of all, I I played against viscerally get.
The reason I got into F1, it was Netflix and and Farah. Yep. Yeah. Yep. It's a thing. I mean, he wears he he he's like head to toe in Ferrari. Sure. I mean, you know, I mean, you know, he's roll the whole thing. The kids are Where's your next F1 you're going to? I mean, I have a few, but uh a few on the docket, you know, mid Middle East and and some other ones.
Nice. Dan I thank you. Two extended a conversation. A lot of good information there with his single best buy, the gentleman from Microsoft.
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