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2026 is already starting with a bang. The New York Times is talking about a collapse in condo prices. The retailer Saxs of Fifth Avenue is expected to file bankruptcy as they just missed payments on $100 million of bonds. Tesla Miss Deliveries loses the lead to BYD. Meanwhile, every institution on Wall Street is really bullish with the most bearish institution on Wall Street right now neutral on stocks.
Yes, the most bearish Wall Street institution going into 2026 is just neutral. That's the most bearish read. It's crazy. So, let's break down what the heck is going on here. Starting with probably my most favorite of all time leading indicator and then we'll get into the details of what's going on with condos and real estate and sachs and Tesla and AI and there's a whole lot going on.
So, let's break it down. First, we've got to look at the 102 yield curve. This is probably um I hate to say it, but my the thing that makes me the most concerned uh just because it's historically been a harbinger of recession. Uh and you know, we've heard this story before, but today is special because we're starting the year with it rising again.
So, you should really understand this chart and then I'll also show you where buy time is. So the orange line is the zero line here, which basically means that the yield curve, the spread between the 2-year and the 10ear has gone negative. You don't really have to know what that means. You just have to know that historically every time it goes negative and then goes positive, we tend to have a recession, including the one I didn't chart over here in 82.
Okay? Or or even over here 80. You actually had a double recession right here that I didn't chart. And it just reiterates this curve. But the point is the point the the moment we actually went into a realized recession in 1991 in 2008 over here uh or or you know um the dot bubble over here in 2000 uh the COVID recession obviously which came very very quickly every single time we ended up being in a realized recession the spread between the twos and the 10ens crossed 1.25 after being under zero.
And as you could see, this is now rising consistently. We have consistently been rising in 2025, and we are starting out 2026 at the highest level we have seen since the last recession, which is a little odd. We're at 78 to 71 this morning. And every single time we cross cost crossed 125, we've been in a recession.
Now maybe this time will be different, but there is a way to sort of track uh when the buying opportunity is. Uh and what you could do is you could take the difference between treasury bonds and high yield. Uh now this is a ratio. So it's a little bit more complicated. You could jump to Trading View and just do II divided by HY.
So basically, treasuries are safe divided by high yield. And when the lower end loses value, the line goes up. And so it's a way of examining shock. And as we could see, we clearly had shock in November of 2008, your first spike. February of 2009, that's when the market really bottomed out and the Fed bailed everything out.
And then you had another spike over here in March of 2020. And it seems like the D by the dip line is over 1.65. So once we panic and you know crap basically breaks the the glass floor breaks and shock actually happens the buy the dip line is about 165 or above that you tend to be in buy the dip territory.
Right now things are very calm but that's really because the labor market hasn't rolled over yet. Now the problem with this is we have a new sort of leading tell that came out this morning uh and it's the S&P global manufacturing PMI and this was a little problematic because what we actually see right here is the S SNP is saying that we are experiencing a wy coyote scenario that has developed whereby the cartoon character continues to run despite chasing the roadrunner off a cliff.
In other words, they say that factories right now are continuing to produce goods even though new orders have been plummeting. In fact, the gap between the growth of production and the drop in orders is in the is the widest gap that we have seen since the height of the global financial crisis back in 2008.
Payroll numbers will be adversely affected if production continues to get scaled back. Now, this morning in our alpha report, we did a deep dive on paychecks and paychecks indicates that so far they're still not seeing recession indicators and that the labor market has been relatively stable through 2025.
You know, we do deep dive fundamental analysis every day in the alpha report and the course member live streams and then, you know, we put it all together. Anyway, the point of this is uh they're not seeing that spike in layoffs yet. This makes sense. Which actually suggests the 55,000 jobs that we're forecasting for the labor report that comes out next Friday.
You know, the next week we have a lot of catalyst. ADP on Wednesday. I think Thursday we get challenger job cuts. Then we get the jobs report on Friday. Next Friday, the week after that we get CPI. We have a lot of catalysts coming up which obviously could be problematic and could be why we're seeing this bleed in the cues.
could also be a little bit uh indicative that you know when we zoom in to this wedge pattern that we're forming on the cues over here it probably kind of begets on a technical basis that we could fall as as you know low as 577 pretty quickly on the cues that's not ideal but it's just sort of a basic technical analysis here's that wedge pattern zoomed in and we could see that this wedge could be get a 577 return on the NASDAQ back 100 uh especially in the face of of this data potentially coming in worse than expected.
But so far, paychecks doesn't say that's happening yet. And the US manufacturing survey says it's not happening yet either. In fact, they say that employment growth was actually sustained into the end of 2025. So, it's bullish jobs, but we're seeing a renewed contraction in the order book. And this is that gap, that widely coyote moment.
In other words, things are still going like everything's booming, but the foundations are really starting to crack. Like the economy is sick. It's just a matter of time for us to see how sick the economy will actually be. And so, we can make this conclusion here. We can deduce that if new orders stay weak, then obviously hiring is going to fall.
It's just a matter of time for hiring to fall. And this is a problem for markets. This isn't good. We don't we don't like this at all. So, we can actually now combine this with what we've got going on in other sectors uh like what's going on in the condo market or what's going on with Sax Fifth or even just luxury goods.
Uh luxury goods are suffering in the luxury market. Uh we are seeing discounts at luxury the level I mean to the likes of which we haven't seen in in quite a while. uh luxury the stat is luxury sales are at 15-year lows in terms of margins uh which obviously not good. Bankruptcies are rising in addition to uh sachs of fifth being rumored to now go bankrupt.
You've got spirit claire's uh Delonte foods on the s hospitality bankruptcy. None of that is great. Uh on top of that, uh we're seeing more bankruptcies year-to date through November. That's when they cut off these numbers. It should go, you know, the year's over. We should see it all, but we don't right now.
So, year to date through November, we see the largest bankruptcies that we've seen since 2010. So, worst levels of bankruptcy since 2010. 717 through November of 2025. That's up from 687 in 2024. Uh industrials consumer discretionary is most affected. Uh chapter 5 small business bankruptcies are up 10% despite the ability to qualify for a chapter 5 bankruptcy being down 40%.
And individual bankruptcies are also up 8%. On top of that, we're seeing sort of sort of like capping out on a lot of retail stocks which suggests some retail or or like exhaustion in in people's ability to buy stocks. I mean look at Netflix. Netflix is a cash cow machine. On a valuation basis, they are 53% undervalued, but the technicals are horrible.
The downtrend has been known for weeks, but we actually just broke the downtrend to the downside. So, like the downtrend is worsening on something that is often seen as a safe haven play. Now on top of that you're obviously also seeing uh you know softness and some other retail names whether it's hood or sofi popular with retail retailers right now chasing things like silver which has topped out and currently memories like SanDisk and Micron but you know you got to know that if you're chasing SanDisk and Micron you're chasing the last leg of the cycle like Micron and SanDisk statistically do well and historically do well when you're at that end phase of euphoria.
Now, of course, Wall Street doesn't care. Wall Street is just rerationalizing how they're calling, you know, what they're calling what's going on in the market. Now, I always think of this as as a problem. Uh so, you know, back in the day, we actually called what was happening in the market in the dotcom bubble irrational exuberance.
But now, you literally have Wall Street analysts saying, "We're not seeing irrational exuberance. We're seeing rational exuberance is what they're calling it. It's actually DWS who said that. The problem with this though is when you start redefining what was the red flag, the last crash cycle as actually a good thing, you're basically arguing that, oh well, this time's just different.
But maybe it's not because even in the collapse of 2008, condos fell substantially faster than home prices. This is why at House Hacking, I'm a big fan of just single families, as much single family as we can get our hands on. But uh the New York Times is now suggesting that condo prices are falling faster due to HOA dues rising inflation costs, insuranceances, as as well as lower desiraability for second homes.
But if you go to the front page of the New York Times right now, they're talking about this this sort of condo collapse uh and how condos are actually doing a lot worse right now in valuations uh than uh than what we're seeing. Hold on, let's get it here. New York Times condo collapse prices falling faster than single family.
They're actually showing that single family uh is up. uh or it might be the Wall Street Journal. Uh that that might be why I couldn't find it on the times. It was the Wall Street Journal that had it. But condo owners are struggling while single family homes are still rising in prices, albeit at a slower pace.
Single families rising uh you know at at a pace that's still positive. You've got 4.5% of single family homes estimated to be worth less than their last sales price. Whereas, if you look at condos, 25% of condos in nine metros are worth less than their last sales price. That's kind of scary. And some of that is because of demographic changes, people trying to move out of urban areas, you know, work from home postco, but a lot of it is also just the impact of inflation and it's harder to get FHA approvals for first-time home buyers and condos.
You know, condos are usually much more sensitive to the economic cycle than single families are. Now, what's interesting is you've got uh Fidelity saying that, you know, right now the defining theme is still AI, but they also mention that there are global fragilities. And I think the fragilities are really what we're seeing in things like the repo market.
You know, the repo market, the Fed is trying to brand this as, oh, don't worry, these spikes keep getting larger even though we've turned off the vacuum cleaner of money. Uh, don't worry. This is all normal. I mean, they panicked over here when repo started to get it used, the repo operation started to get used, they panicked.
They're like, you know what? We're going to turn off the vacuum cleaner. Well, even after turning off the money vacuum cleaner, the repo market is spiking higher than it ever has before. Now, maybe this is all because of, you know, money leaving banks and going to the Treasury General account because people are paying their taxes and that's why the repo facility is getting used.
But you know, it's either that that's a fair explanation or liquidity is truly drying up. Problem is, as liquidity dries up, you tend to see less money to chase names like Netflix or Tesla or whatever. You know, one of my calls recently in the alpha report uh when Tesla hit 500 was that we would be heading back to $433.
And a lot of people are like, "Oh, Kevin, you're just being a Tesla bear. Why do you keep saying it's going to go back to $433?" And I'm like, this has nothing to do with me being a bear or bull for Tesla. It has to do with basic technical analysis. This sucker is going to go back to $433. And since I've made the call, we have gone basically straight down to $437.
And I I think we're going to hit $433.99. That's a very natural next phase line, especially on those Tesla delivery numbers that we just got, which we can talk more about in just a moment. But, you know, I think it's worth also remembering that at the same time we're getting some of this these liquidity constraints.
Maybe retail is fully allocated, which you know, some institutions are starting to recognize as well. Maybe people went into the year fully allocated. The yield curve is, you know, basically uh skyrocketing, which is not good. Uh but, you know, when you put all of this together, it kind of makes sense why you're also seeing Sachs of Fifth miss their bond payments, which is somewhat scary.
We don't like to see companies go bankrupt. I mean, in every cycle, companies are eventually going to go bankrupt. This is normal. Uh and and it's kind of healthy for companies to go bankrupt, but it's also a red flag. So, you know, all of a sudden, the CEO of Sachs just stepped down. Pretty sure that's front page of the Wall Street Journal as well as well.
Yeah, there it is. SACEO steps down ahead of expected bankruptcy filing because the company just missed payments on a hundred million dollars of loans that are due to bond holders and payments were due on Tuesday. they miss their payments. And people are saying that there's a doom loop that's basically happening here where when they stop paying their vendors on time, their vendors don't give them supplies, their revenues go down, then they have even less money to pay their bonds or their vendors, which then leads to even less inventory on the shelves.
You basically have no choice but to get squeezed into bankruptcy. Now, at the same time as all of this, you know, Donald Trump is cheering everything's not fine. And the editorial board, uh, you know, made a pretty pretty solid slam, I would say, there on Donald Trump because they're like, "Hey, uh, you know, Donald Trump is retreating yet again on tariffs." One of the striking contradictions of President Trump's tariffs is the way his chorus claims their rousing success, even though he carves out hundreds of exceptions.
Rarely has a president worked so hard to cover the damage from his policies without admitting it. So, Restoration Hardware is up like 9% today because Trump finally decided to U-turn on 30 to 50% tariffs on vanities, kitchen cabinets, and upholstered furniture, leading the editorial board to say, "I guess killer love seats aren't as dangerous as advertised or vanities or whatever." And so, you know, the editorial board is like, at what point are we just going to keep causing more problems because you're like literally trying to fix these problems of your tariffs by carving out smartphones, electronics, farm products, and the way you're doing it is by offering 12 billion bailouts for farmers, stimulus checks for certain people.
Uh, you know, you're you're expecting to offer potentially more stimulus checks in 2026. you know, people in the comment section are sort of roasting him for uh uh for making it very difficult for businesses to operate in this sort of uncertain environment. Uh and you know, here's a classic comment though, very disturbing.
Our national security is now under grave threat from sinister imported bathroom vanities. How could Trump back off this important measure endangering us all? Endangering us all. Obviously, there's a lot of uh facitiousness in this. You know, they're not meant to be taken literally here. Uh but but yeah, I mean it sort of plays to the joke of like, hey, like at a time where individual bankruptcies are up 8%.
Uh small business bankruptcies are up 10% despite the ability to qualify for those being reduced 40%. Which is a bad sign. People kind of running out of money being fully allocated to the stock market. It's not a great time to dink with the economy even more with the all the tariff drama. Although we continue to get more exceptions and we probably won't hear from the Supreme Court until February to like May on tariffs, but I think what would be great for the economy would be getting rid of tariffs.
Anyway, that said, people are running tight on money and Tesla is no exception to this. Uh the information is now predicting that uh Tesla should actually acquire XAI or that they might end up acquiring X AI. Now, I personally think that would be a terrible idea, and I've maintained this. In fact, I encourage people not to vote for Tesla to buy shares of XAI because I think Elon Musk is kind of running out of money at XAI despite, you know, him being desperate to build uh or despite him being desperate to beat Sam Oldman and having a high net worth, most of his net worth is in illquid valuations at SpaceX and Tesla.
Now, if we actually look at the financials for Tesla, the financials at Tesla on the cash flow statement, they're very good. I mean, Tesla has $18 billion of free cash. You know, $40 billion of cash minus bills they have to pay. So, they've got $18 billion, $18.7 billion of free cash. They uh have generated in the last 9 months about $1.3 billion of free cash flow per quarter, which works out to about 300400ish million per quarter.
Uh sorry, per month. The problem with this is XAI is expected to be burning $1 billion per month. That's not great because that means XAI is burning three times as much money as Tesla generates in free cash flow. And I actually think Tesla's free cash flow will decline. We just had, you know, 418,000 deliveries, which is not great, not terrible.
We don't know how many of those went to SpaceX. But, you know, like cash is a problem. Tesla has $18 billion of free cash, but if XAI comes in, they're going to burn this. And what I think Tesla should be doing is they should be installing more superchargers, better superchargers. They should be doing more mega packs, more mega pack production, more battery storage production.
They've got high margin and 29% gross uh uh uh you know uh revenue growth over there. I think it's fantastic. They're doing 29% more gawatt hour deliveries than they did last year. This is a great growth vertical at high margins. Uh even though they're just repackaging Chinese batteries, it's a great business model.
Uh and they should be focusing on new vehicle models. Damn it. I don't think that they should acquire XAI, which is a cash burning business to compete with some egocentric bull crap competition between Elon Musk and Sam Alman because they hate each other. And I also don't think Space X is going to end up screwing up their IPO by buying XAI.
So maybe the information is right, but I hope not. I actually think it would be a really bad catalyst for Tesla to blow up all their free cash flow and destroy the core of what makes Tesla Tesla. You know, Tesla just burned me on $4,000 of credits. I looked on New Year's Eve. I wrote a little note down.
I'm like, "Check my Tesla credits to make sure they don't expire." I opened up my Tesla credits. I already saw like a,000 of them expired, but whatever. I had $3,900 left. And uh then it said, "Your next expiration of $750 of expiring credits expires January 18th or something like that." And I'm like, "Cool.
I got two and a half weeks to go spend some money." So I was going to buy like the Under Arour thing for the Tesla Cybert truck. Well, no. On on January 1st, I look at it, all my credits are gone. They rug pulled all of my credits. They just made them disappear. So then I asked the little AI chatbot that they have in the Tesla app.
I'm like, "Hey, give me my credits back." And it's like, "Oh, email customer support." So, I email customer support or service or whatever it is at tesla.com. And then I get an automatic email. This email is not monitored. So, I go back to the chatbot. I go, "You gave me an email that doesn't work." Meanwhile, when I click on the email, their app crashes, so I had to manually type it in.
Whatever. Small issues. Uh, and then the AI chatbot is like, "Oh, I'm sorry. Here, call the customer service number." Like, come on, Tesla. Like why don't you guys focus on actually like taking care of the people who like have shield your business for years and then why don't you do what has made you guys good make good cars and and not you know chase this fad of AI uh it drives me nuts because I don't think Tesla like the the fad of AI when I mean when I say that like large language learning models I think that is a fad that is a massive fad right now and you don't want to throw money on at that in my opinion like functional AI.
I'm a big fan of functional AI like full self-driving or like house hack AI. Great functional AI but not LLMs. Man, don't chase that. Don't blow your money on that. That's crazy. But whatever. So, uh that's just my little Tesla rant. Uh but again, their numbers, not great, not terrible. So, what else do we know?
418,227 deliveries, year-over-year sales down 86%. BYD is eating their lunch. BYD is up 7.7% in year-over-year sales, 4.6 million deliveries, 2.26 million pure battery electric vehicles, meaning BYD has just surpassed Tesla as the largest, you know, EV manufacturer. Now, moving away from Tesla for a moment, it's worth considering what the economist just told us.
So, the economist just told us, jump into the economist over here, the truth about affordability. So, are you Hi, hi live stream chat. Um but yeah, the truth about affordability, the economist makes a really good point. They say that politicians will naturally do what the elect the polls tell them to do.
And the problem is that you end up introducing more harmful policies than you fix. See, my opinion is that you should get the government out of a lot of things. Like you want to fix Minnesota child care fraud, stop having the government allocate money to the child care. Let the free market run the child carees.
When the free market runs the childare, they don't turn away customers. Wow. Imagine that. But anyway, so um you know if you look over here, the economist argues that if you want deflation, what you end up causing is a sovereign debt crisis like what you saw in Greece, and you suffer a depression and deflation.
So, you know, even though the wealth gap is is rising today, people's wages are rising more than inflation is rising right now. And the best thing to keep this economy going is not to tax it uh or to create more government programs or to send stimulus checks. The best way to keep the economy going is to keep the government out of the free market and not make the mistakes of the 1970s.
That's at least the take of the economist, which I'm actually inclined to believe. Now, at the same time, you've got the Washington Post dumping on Trump because Trump is saying that, "Oh, we're creating more jobs for US-born workers, gaining a million jobs as uh uh gaining more than 2.5 million jobs as US born workers gained more jobs in 2025 as a million immigrants left the workforce.
But we know the unemployment rate has been rising and unemployment data has been getting worse, not better." Washington Post and economists are pointing that out as well. I mean, this isn't a surprise. So, this all gets to the bottom line out of all of this. The bottom line out of all of this, uh, which I'm going to show in just a moment, uh, comes right after I show you a big thank you.
Uh, this is what, uh, I saw this morning. A bunch of money flowing into House Hack. So, it seems like people have money because, you know, just the first banking day of the year, we're already over 500 like $40,000 into the account today. uh for people, you know, people's investments finalizing for House Act since we closed the fund raise, which kind of cool.
Thank you. I just want to give a big thank you to everybody on that. And people are loving the real estate AI, which is also very cool because we had a a really nice comment this morning. Uh somebody left, uh boom, two deals found, two deals under contract. I've been using the AI the last 3 days, liking it a lot, looking forward to the updates.
Yeah, we got a lot of updates coming, which we're really excited about. But I think the bottom line out of all of this is actually this warning that one of these economists gives uh and and what they say is right over here. Market participants aren't necessarily cautious. However, they may be fully invested going into the new year.
And that's a little bit of a problem because if everybody is fully invested and margin debts are at the highest level that we've ever seen before, it makes me wonder, hey, like how sustainable uh is growth for the economy if it's predicated on the market holding it up. Tesla's going down to 433. But yeah, if you look at, you know, the cues, we had a rough morning over here.
fell off the cliff again going down to 607. I mentioned that if we lost 617 we'd be going down to 607 on the alpha this morning and to be cautious uh because volumes have been so low and liquidity seems to be very very tight. But the biggest issue that we face right now is that the liquidity concerns and private credit end up moving to the stock market.
Because if the stock market goes down, that's the only thing that's holding up capex spending, which is the only thing holding up hiring or any semblance of hiring. And then you have problems. Then you have real big problems. So I don't want to start the year off bearish. Uh, but I have to say, I mean, consolidating all of this research, I do think I probably have to lower my bare bull scale.
So, my present uh bare bull scale, let's go ahead and pop it up. So, my present bear bull scale, which which we use this tracker because I think it's it's good for people to see my bull bear scale has been relatively consistent. You know, this is my bull bear scale. It's been mid mid uh mid uh fives.
We jump because of ADP weeklys. And I mean, you could read it. You could pause and read it all here, but we've been relatively consistent in the mid fives and I think it's a really good tracker. Uh but uh but I will actually update this right now with you here and we're going to say for the start of January I'm actually going to go down to a 51.
Uh and that's because I'm seeing uh tight uh liquidity uh the last week might be more than seasonal uh slowness if allocations and debt are maxed. uh the ability uh you know uh stock stock stock exhaustion uh will set in uh that will lead to forced layoffs uh as as money becomes even tighter. you know, Sachs bankruptcy and missing payments on, you know, a hund00 million of bonds is just a, you know, another early warning sign in addition to all of the other bankruptcies that we've been seeing.
Individual bankruptcies, small bankruptcies, big bankruptcies are all rising. Uh the yield curve, the yield curve steepening uh is by far the most concerning evidence. Uh as we break 071 on the 102 and trend towards 125, we are running towards recession, not away from it. Uh, and so this does sort of reduce me on that that bear bull scale, which again reiterates why I'm cautious.
I'm not, you know, I'm not bearish, sell everything, short everything, but cautious, cautious, cautious, uh, is is the name of the game here for Meet Kevin. Uh, and and again, I just want to be so grateful for all of you because by no means do I want to like come across as like, oh, hell, look at us.
Look at the money we have or whatever. I just want to prove to you that I put my money where my mouth is. And so this is uh this is our house hack Mercury. I love the app, by the way. Uh if if you've never used Mercury for business banking, I highly encourage it. I'm pretty sure I have an affiliate link for them.
Yeah, there you go. Banking done right. Go to metaven.com/bank and then you get like a $200 bonus. I I don't know what their affiliate link is. There's some kind of bonus if you go there, but this is our Mercury. Uh and so um you know, so we have uh this is our cash balance at Mercury. Uh I think in total we're at about 15.5 in cash right now and it's mostly money markets like the house hack treasury uh or the Mercury Treasury account which gives you like a 3.7 yield or somewhere between 3.7 and 4% something like that.
Um and uh you know we're we're kind of sitting on this cash from the fundraising now and we're like all right this does position us to be quite defensive uh and and not only expand our AI uh uh offering not expecting AGI right just with the AI that exists today providing a great quality product and service uh but you know we're we're AI profitable and my goal is to keep it that way I don't want to like turn into a drunk sailor like X AI I or open AI and spend blindly going into 2026, we're we're going to keep the money uh safe and be very very conservative.
And so I think my bare bull scale for all the reasons we've just enumerated in this segment uh really align with that. Now I understand a lot of people look and they say Kevin, you know, like isn't there an opportunity cost to to you know uh being heavily exposed to cash? Of course. And don't get me wrong, I mean, we just bought 11 properties and and you know, we think we got great deals on those properties and we think we're really insulated on those single family purchases that we just made.
We think all of them were below market value, way more than than what we spent to fix them up. Uh, you know, knock on wood as we finish these out. But, uh, but I'm not highly tempted to dive into buying. I usually am not in Q1. Usually Q1, Q2, I wait, you know, I don't buy. They usually only buy in the third and fourth quarter.
Uh but uh but raising cash and diversifying is is I think very very smart right now. Somebody here in the chat says, "Kevin, why did the market tank?" You know, I again I think it's just there's an exhaustion. Uh somebody says, "Kevin, you nailed 2022. You warned everybody on time." Well, thank you for saying that.
Uh so I know we had a little bit of a talk about fire sprinklers earlier. We don't need to go back into that. Uh so that has a ripple effect. Now the bond holders at Sachs of Fifth aren't getting paid. Does that have a downstream effect? Sure. Well, yeah. Like if bond holders at Sachs don't get their distributions, then then you know they have less money to go buy the stock dip or whatever, right?
I personally think a red flag is Netflix cuz if you look at the weak chart on Netflix, when you lose the downtrend, it really shows that what what was used to be deemed safe is no longer safe. And again, I think their valuation is very low. And I think the same of meta, but I'm also like cognizant that we could also just be going into a bearish a bearish time of uh uh of uh for the stock market.
So I like when when your most bearish analyst is neutral on stocks, to me that's a contrarian sell signal. Uh which which is not great. So uh I I I do see that as a uh as a red flag. So we'll see. We'll see. Now, I know that, you know, Bitcoin had a nice little jump over $90,000 today, but you also have to be very careful using um Bitcoin right now as a uh as a catalyst, mostly because uh Michael Sailor has typically been associated with buying every single week and he keeps marking new highs.
So, he tends to buy and then a few hours later, Bitcoin just retraces uh and then he's upside down. You know, he doesn't buy wedge deals. He does the opposite. He pumps the market when he's buying and then the market slips out from under him. So, he's really buying at a negative every single time he's buying, which is great.
He's he's actually creating negative wedge deals. He's giving somebody else exit liquidity. It's It's really incredible. Uh here's a question. Wow, $20 donation. Thank you, Mountain46. I have a question. So, I open up a hive and forging. I don't know what any of that means. I buy SpaceX, OpenAI, and so on.
Do you know if it's legit before I put funds into it? I don't know anything about Hive or Forge or accounts or whatever. Uh I mean, what I've seen a lot of companies do is they'll have special purpose vehicles where they'll get an allocation and then they kind of put over they lay over their own fees.
I just be cautious about buying at some of these valuations. Like look, I I I I hate using this phrase because I just don't define myself as like a venture capital guy, but I have a venture capital fund. You know, we briefly opened that up to reggga uh regggd investors. It's not open right now, but we invested in Apptronic, which I think is like 4xed uh since our investment, I don't know, ballpark.
I mean, I'm saying this on a quick live stream here. And uh we invested in SpaceX, which I think is also like 3xed or 4xed. I mean, we invested like a 300 billion dollar valuation and now they're talking about $1.5 trillion for an IPO. It's crazy. That's like a 5x. I don't know. But anyway, um you know, I I wouldn't pay those valuations.
Uh I think uh I think those are very scary valuations, but I can't give you personalized advice. I've never heard of those companies. Uh just watch the fees. You know, the fees get really really disgusting. Uh but uh yeah, somebody says, "What's a regggd investor?" Fair. I I will explain an additional lesson for everybody.
So, uh a regulation D is is it a form of an offering that is only conducted towards um uh towards accredited investors. So, having like a million dollar plus net worth or I think it's over $200,000 of income or 250, I can't remember. That's different from a qualified investor, uh which would be over $5 million of a net worth outside of your primary residence.
And then there is a a regulation A offering. Regulation A's are a little bit of a pain in the ass. You have to have a broker dealer involved. That's what we're doing with Houseack. It's open to nonacredited investors. Well, we just closed it on on the 31st, but uh that requires a broker dealer, a lot more KYC, a lot more, you know, uh review uh limitations in terms of how much of your net worth you can invest.
Uh stricter disclosures and financial filings. Uh and then of course we are PCAOB audited as well, which is extremely rare for a reggga. Um, but when you hear those phrases, that's what that is. Uh, those are private offerings essentially. Um, so, so that's I use these words because they're they're so used to like I'm so used to talking in that lingo, but I have to be careful to remember that, you know, not everybody has taken all of their FINRA licensing tests, right?
Uh, so so anyway, thank you. Thank you for asking. Uh uh million millions in uh in in Pokemon trading cards. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you can calculate your net worth however you deem fit. Actually, for a reggg A, you calculate your own net worth. Ironically, for a regggd D, we calculate your net worth. Uh a little different, huh?
That seems backwards. But anyway, uh somebody says Elon doesn't care about cars anymore. that's just a side business. That actually makes me very disappointed because I I you know I I've of the mindset that we should have the cyber cab. We should be focusing on a box van Tesla. We should be focusing on a minivan and new models.
But if if Tesla buys XAI, it could unfortunately, and this is hyperbolic, but it could be the death of Tesla because uh all of that cash that they've built that should be utilized for making the core business that makes money better, they would end up throwing into a money losing business and giving up their moat.
Uh I'm I'm I'm very very very disappointed uh about that. So uh I find that very um uh very sad. But uh anyway, yeah, I mean, look, this is this is my first video of the year. I do want to reiterate, I appreciate all of you having watched my um uh my my last video of last year video. Uh I am going to maintain the promise of no sponsors for the foreseeable future.
Uh so the only thing that you're going to hear from me will be the occasional like, hey, the coupons coming out. We don't have a coupon right now. The only thing you're going to hear from me is the occasional coupon expiration, but House Hacks Fundra is over. No sponsors. I don't really care about affiliate links, you know?
I put them up mostly because I think sometimes there's a big benefit to you. Like I don't get any benefit out of the car the cash one that I was talking about the other day, but but but I know that you do if you use the product. So, I'm like, I don't care. You know, use anybody's link you want. I actually think, ironically, my Tesla affiliate link is back.
I was just looking at that. I went to uh met kevin.com/tesla and it looks like they opened it back up again which is really funny because they just rugpulled all of my credits and then they opened up my referral link again because the referral link was Kevin's order is maxed out use somebody else's link and I guess my referral code is back after they stole all my referral credits.
So I don't know how how to feel about that but I think there's some shying going on here. Um, what are you going to do? Yeah, it's shady. It's 100% shady. I wish I took a screenshot of the New Year's Eve, you know, where it said it's not going to expire until like January 17th or whatever. I actually might have an email of it.
Um, but uh but anyway, yeah. What's up, Kevin? I'm painting at work and listening, trying to change my wealth. Let's go. Hey, man. Keep building the skills, build the business. Yeah, I was telling somebody the other day if I if I was 19 years old, let's say, and I didn't have a family, I would go to both college to learn machine learning and I would work the trades, whether that's being an electrician or a plumber or whatever, because then I hedge AI, but I also get the upside hedge.
I upside hedge AI by being into potentially developer, work from home, remote work, right? Which I could do outside of my trade skills. But then if AI takes over without me, I have my trade skills. I actually think that's, you know, that's what I would do if I were 19. I I think those hard physical skills are really valuable.
You know, being a pilot, electrician, plumber, HVAC, framer, you know, whatever. uh but but also being cognizant and capable in uh and and versed in in artificial intelligence uh machine learning waitings uh neural nets uh waitings for neural nets I think is is is fantastic. Uh so um somebody says Elon gutted the consumer protection agency so he could do stuff like that.
Yeah. Big irony about that is the consumer financial protection agency actually just got ruled by the courts. I can't remember if it was federal appeals or the Supreme Court that they need to be funded. So, the CFPB will be back. Uh, which is uh which is very interesting. You made a video like that a year ago saying the same thing about no ads.
Yeah. Well, uh, actually, if you if you actually listen very closely, that video was made in 2022 and I said that for the foreseeable future we won't have ads. And if you actually look for about 2 years, I took no sponsors. Yeah. So I made a promise and I committed to that for 2 years which is certainly more than foreseeable future, right?
So you know I think I was incredibly honest about that. Uh and then there was a period where you know we had ads again uh over uh I think late 2024 and and 2025. Uh but uh but for for the foreseeable future in 2026, we're not going to do ads. I don't know how long that's going to be, but for a while you you won't see sponsors, right?
like YouTube's still going to put in their ads. But uh you know that unfortunately that's always the thing that people miss is like I could say you know a certain time frame and then I could commit to it for years but then they only hear what they want to hear which is I thought you said no ads forever.
It's like I never said that. Uh but but people forget that. So you know fixing people's impressions is uh is is uh always challenging but that's okay. Somebody says we need a watchdog agency for exactly your issue. Yeah, I mean I feel scammed, right? Somebody says don't sue. Yeah, I'm not going to sue Elon.
Like, I don't care. But I I do feel scammed. Like, you know, I have been a Tesla shill since 2017 and and I feel like I got rugpulled out of, you know, $4,000 of of of credits. And uh you know, in fairness, like does it really change my life? No, of course not. But uh you know I just think that's that's like a sign of the business having like if you need to rug pull your customers like that's not a good look.
So I'm a little disappointed about that. But anyway, uh so we'll see what happens with the cues here. Hopefully we can stay off of 607 and uh we'll leave it there. So thank you all so much for being here and watching and t;> somebody we .
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