저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 역사상 디플레이션성 공황은 통화 완화(금리 인하·돈 찍기)로 해소되어 왔고, 제로금리가 완화의 바닥이 아니므로 재인플레이션(리플레이션) 환경을 대비해 분산투자를 해야 한다. 역사적 배경: 공황은 대개 부채·유동성 위기이며, 1933년 금본위 이탈, 1971년 닉슨 쇼크, 2012년 드라기 발언, 2008년 TARP·양적완화 등 통화 완화로 해소되어 왔다. 통화 완화의 효과: 실질금리 하락, 인플레이션 상승, 통화 가치 하락 등으로 나타나며, 중앙은행 자산 매입으로 증권·신용자산 가격이 뒷받침될 수 있다. 1971년처럼 인플레가 가속하면 실질 주가는 하락할 수 있다. 현금의 위험성: 통화 가치가 떨어지면 현금은 안전자산이 아니라 위험자산이 된다. 따라서 부(富)의 저장 관점에서 자산배분을 재고해야 한다. 기대수익 전망: 10년물 금리 등으로 계산한 기대수익이 모든 자산군(사모펀드·벤처캐피털 포함)에서 낮고, 통화정책 영향으로 변동성은 클 것이라고 봤다. 충분하지 않은 수익과 높은 불확실성이 현실이다. 투자 전략: 자산군·국가·통화·시간대를 분산하는 균형 포트폴리오가 무엇보다 중요하다. 개별 자산의 기대수익은 낮지만 결합하면 안정성이 높아진다. 특정 자산·국가 집중은 역사적으로 위험했다. 부채와 유동성: 많은 개인·기업·국가가 부채 상환 능력이 부족하며, 디폴트를 막기 위해 대규모 화폐 발행이 불가피하다는 것이 그의 판단이다. 종목·자산 언급: 특정 한국 종목 언급은 없음. 미국 주식·채권·금·통화에 대한 방향성 언급은 구체적 기간 없이 일반론 수준. 리스크: 화폐가치 하락, 인플레 가속 시 주식 실질수익 하락, 디폴트 위험, 통화정책 부작용에 따른 높은 변동성. 출연자 전망: 기대수익 저하와 높은 변동성 지속, 현금 보유의 위험성 증가, 분산과 대체 자산 활용을 강조.
다듬은 글
what you find in studying history is that depressions are mostly debt and liquidity crises that are dealt with one way or another through easing a monetary policy which changes over a period of time i describe monetary policy one interest rates monetary policy two buy financial assets print money and buy financial assets monetary policy three which we are in is the printing of a lot of financial assets by the central bank and then buying government bonds to finance the deficit and getting money in the hands of those who wouldn't have had it through the normal financial system essentially through that coordination in all history so when we go back to the 1800s and so on there is that and so the alleviation will happen in terms of that kind of ease so when we think interest rates are going to hit zero and that therefore depressions last no they don't last because in one form or another and we're seeing it here today that they will be the printing of money now the value of money may not last or they can be depreciated but in the end they always will ease and you will have then that kind of reflation movement and that kind of change so the hitting of a zero interest rate is not a hitting of a floor on the capacity of central banks to ease if you look at the history you've seen it happen time and time again in the same way and it lends itself to three types of assets responding the it that's happened happened in march 5th 1933 roosevelt makes the announcement about severing the dollar from gold and depreciating it and reflating it to give the banks the money that they have to pay to their depositors the same thing happened august 15 1971 when nixon got on television and said that he is severing the relationship with gold and printing money and so on the same thing happened in november 2012 with mario draghi making the same kind of moves and the same thing happened on april 9th when we had the moves by the u.s federal reserve and the u.s congress and and treasury same type of movements happened in 2008 when the treasury put together an administration and the congress put together the tarp program and they went to quantitative easing those are the things that you always see happening including times that i haven't mentioned and when they happen that is what happens at the equivalent of zero interest rates okay it is that kind of movement and that form of easing and that's what we're seeing and so easing doesn't end and the liquidity squeeze and the debt squeeze is dealt with but it's dealt with through the printing of money that could become manifest in either the real interest rates going down which in the case of with a low level of inflation zero interest rate must be manifest with an inflation rate rising which eventually happens doesn't usually happen at first or there's the depreciation in relationship to other assets so what you're seeing right now is that reflation becoming manifest in the money that is being purchased by the federal reserve and government than going into assets that are equity assets into credit assets and so on and that's the manifestation or you could see it in gold or you could see it in the depreciation one doesn't necessarily know at the time which is going to happen so in 1971 when that happened there was a big decline in real stock prices because inflation accelerated but you do know that that combination of reflation assets will happen in a way that's very similar to the cutting of interest rates when they hit zero i really believe that in this environment most investors will think safe is cash and that's tragic so you can see that one has to think differently from one's habits when one thinks cash is not a safe investment it's a risky investment that stocks and bonds are not the same as they were in the past one has to think of the storehold of wealth concept rather than just equity returns one has to think about balancing differently all of these things that i'm bringing up are not commonly thought about they're not part of the common experience of investing over the past many years in order to understand the lessons of history and even what's more likely to take place one has got to go back to periods that were analogous to this and to study those periods and when we did that over the last 500 years you could see that you don't know if you're going to see the depreciation of the value of money and the store hold of wealth so all of a sudden that changes what you define as risk you used to think cash is a riskless asset cash can be the most risky asset as it depreciates in value then you start to think about different asset classes and different locations so that's what we're doing when we think of what is the diversified portfolio for an easing that happens at that time that's kind of a reflation portfolio and how do you measure that in relationship to other things because i think the one thing that we could be confident is is that the federal reserve and other central banks are not going to let an implosion happen without printing a lot of money we know where uh interest rates are you know that if you take a 10-year bond you know what your return is going to be on that 10-year month and if you then do calculations of what is the expected returns of other asset classes that all asset classes and that includes private equity it includes venture capital and so on have uh very low expected returns meaning that if you were to just hold them over the next 10 years they're all going to have not nearly enough return and they're going to be low so that's a fact of life we also know that asset classes are affected by monetary policy so when they lowered the interest rates and did a number of other things in the past that allowed asset prices to rise we know a number of those things won't be able to happen in the future but that is the character of the environment so that the environment it's a reality right does anybody disagree that the returns of asset classes will be low from just an expected return point of view and that monetary policy and which is now by financial assets and so on in print money will be a lever that's going to have an effect on that and so we're going to get volatility and we have a high amount of uncertainty in that environment so that has implications can we agree on that that we're going to have low returns inadequate returns generally relative to needs with a lot of volatility around them can we agree that's a fact of life i think it is and then the question is how do you approach it from an investment point of view let me um describe it this way achieving balance which means diversification is more important than ever though it will have a lower return than before so do you want an asset class return or do you want a portfolio of well-balanced assets so when i look at that i'm not saying let's say if you take a 60 40 stock bond mix or if you take equities or you take any one of those things no no no no i think the most important thing is to start with diversifying well diversification of asset classes diversification of countries diversification of currencies diversification because i think that the one thing we know is that we don't know a lot and it's not easy to necessarily time it about what is going to happen right so we should be given um humility and because the markets are relatively efficient in making those comparisons it's not like one thing is necessarily better than the other as much as we do know that some things are better diverse fires than other things to produce whatever that excess return is that it is as stable as possible and least risky as possible to try to achieve balance so as we look forward what we can say is the excess returns will be lower the premiums have been lower but it still is better to have that diversified portfolio it'll be a lower excess return but it still means more stable because the individual items that make up will all have low returns but the combination of them will make it more stable the concentration in any one asset class in any one country in any one anything history has shown is dangerous and it is dangerous now so when i look at it for example what we're seeing is reflation we're seeing um the central banks printing money and buying assets and i do believe that they're going to continue to do that then the question is does that become manifest in a way where it drives stock prices up does it drive the value of money down does it drive gold prices up in any case i think the big thing is that almost no investors has enough money relative to their needs it may affect the time horizon but if you looked at the richest investors generally speaking and you looked at what are their revenues what are their expenses and what is their saving every individual every company every country has to go through that exercise and when you look at that exercise can you spend on your liabilities or pay out that amount of money based on the income that's coming in or the way you're going to have to tap that savings pool you can see all around you those that are going to not be able to make it not be able to come close in the period that we have you have to think what does that mean that is going to mean that those will not default you cannot tell most of the people that they won't get their money that is going to mean that a lot of money is going to have to be printed because the obligation is to print that amount of money to fill those liabilities and so that's the situation that we and most of the world are in so when i think of investing i want to invest in the competitive countries um i'm on a multi-country investment i want a multi-asset investment i want multi-currency investment and i want to store hold of wealth because what happens is wealth is not so much destroyed has shifted you know from one asset class to another you know there's competition of asset classes competition of countries competition currencies and so on and they move around and so they have to start off diversifying well and then they go to where are the alpha sources and how does one create a well-diversified mix of alpha sources so it's the same old story
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