저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
AMD의 DCF 가치평가 결과 적정가 359달러로, 현재가 466달러 대비 고평가. 2026년 FCF 83억달러에서 2035년 1,090억달러까지 성장 전망, WACC 13.6%(베타 1.95, 무위험수익률 4.5%, 시장위험프리미엄 6%) 가정. 기업들이 부채 확대로 자본비용을 낮추는 전략을 언급. 현 주가 기준 매수 추천은 철회하고 보유(hold)로 하향.
다듬은 글
AMD stock is soaring here in 2026 and investors are asking me if this is an undervalued stock to buy or if the market price is getting ahead of the company's fundamentals. I'll answer that question in this video by sharing with you my calculation of a fair value for AMD stock and I'll go through it step-by-step so you can see all the numbers and how they're all coming together.
&; is my spreadsheet for my discounted cash flow valuation for AMD. This is a discounted cash flow valuation model, the same one that well, I shouldn't say the same one, but similar to what I teach at university to my students and I teach this in nearly every No, yeah, I teach it in every single finance class, whether it's a you know, an entry-level finance course or whether I'm teaching graduate students.
The discounted cash flow model gets taught. It's part of the learning objective in nearly every course that I teach. I can say every course that I teach at university. And and the the model I use for my personal use is a little bit different, a little more customized to my personal needs and that's what I'm sharing with you here, my personal customized discounted cash flow valuation model.
It has the estimates of what I believe AMD will generate in free cash flow between today and the very, very long run. It has a weighted average cost of capital that I calculated using the capital asset pricing model. And then of course it has the output, the intrinsic value per share, which calculates the fair value.
So let's go through these one at a time. Up top, I have AMD's estimate for what I believe the company will generate in free cash flow in 2026 and I think the company will generate about 8.27 billion dollars in free cash flow this year. And I'm forecasting phenomenal growth for the company. Between now and 2030, I'm forecasting its free cash flow more than quadruples from 8.3 billion all the way up to 36 billion by 2030, and I expect the growth will continue from there, growing from 36 billion all the way up to 109 billion by 2035.
So, I'm forecasting extremely robust free cash flow growth for AMD, driven by its products that fit exactly what data centers need right now, and that's CPUs and GPUs. AMD more recently is getting more fame, more acknowledgement from investors because of its position in the CPU market, but it also has GPUs in the market, and combined, those will allow the company to generate this level of phenomenal growth, and the management team was extremely optimistic when they revised their forecasts for the longer term significantly higher from just even 3 months ago and 6 months ago.
So, it seems like every 3 months the forecasts for AMD keep increasing as the management team gets more and more confident about their future prospects, and that confidence is based on actual tangible things like orders from customers and deposits and agreements and conversations and out long-term agreements with customers.
And so, AMD's management team is not just wishing and suggesting things out of thin air, they're actually seeing customers making orders and asking them for these products, not just for right now, not just for next year, but for 3 years from now and 5 years from now. And so, that's giving the company confidence in their long-term prospects.
So, the weighted average cost of capital I calculated for AMD is 13.6%. I'm giving them and I'm estimating an after-tax cost of debt of 5 and 3/4 or 5.75% and I'm using the capital asset pricing model to calculate their cost of equity. And that combines the beta, which for AMD is 1.95, the risk-free rate, which I'm using the 10-year US government bond yield at 4.5% and a market risk premium, which I'm using 6%.
I'm giving the company a target capital structure of 25% debt and 75% equity, even though they don't have anywhere near 25% of the total company financed through debt. I forecast that as they mature, as they generate more cash flow, they'll use more of their cash flow to buy back stock, and then they'll borrow tens of billions of dollars because why do you think that's the case, right?
So, as you're seeing me go through this, you will have identified the cost of debt at just 5.75% and the cost of equity at 16%. It's almost three times as expensive for AMD to finance the company through equity compared to financing the company through debt. And so, the more they borrow, to a certain extent, the lower their weighted average cost of capital.
And whenever I'm covering the weighted average cost of capital at university, and this is another thing that you know, I teach in every finance class, the weighted average cost of capital, it's so important for finance. And students always, when they see this, the smart students, the curious students, the ones that are paying attention, will always ask me, "Why doesn't a company just finance everything with debt, since the cost of debt is usually a fraction of the cost of equity.
And that's always a great question and I always give credit to students that ask that question cuz you're right, the cost of debt is a third of the cost of equity. Why doesn't every company just finance the entirety of their business with debt instead of equity? And that's where the asterisk comes in.
The cost of debt is a fraction of the cost of equity only as long as the company's balance sheet is relatively healthy. So, the more you borrow, the riskier you become to lenders and the cost of debt starts to increase, but the increase is not incremental. The increase becomes exponential when you get to debt levels that are too high based on your company's fundamentals.
And think of it in your personal life, right? When you go to borrow money for a mortgage, your home loan, your mortgage officer will look at your income and compare it to the mortgage. And if you're making $10,000 a month and your mortgage is going to be $3,500 a month, they're fine with lending you money.
They'll give you a really low interest rate. But, if you're making $5,000 a month and your mortgage is going to be $6,000 a month, you might be able to find some unique lender that will let you borrow money if you're able to find any lender, that is, because your income is below your mortgage payment, but if they do lend you money, they're going to charge you an astronomical interest rate.
You're not going to get that low low interest rate. You're not going to get that 6% mortgage or 7% mortgage. You're going to get 15% or something ridiculously high because you're such a higher risk to the lender. And it's the same thing with corporations. So long as your debt level can be supported by your cash flow from operations and your balance sheet, they'll lend you money at extremely low interest rate so you can borrow and borrow and borrow at low interest rates, but if you borrow too much, then the interest rate starts to increase exponentially and that's why corporations don't finance the entire company with debt, but they will finance as much as they possibly can while keeping that cost of debt relatively low.
This is what one of the things the CFOs get paid big bucks to do, to optimize their weighted average cost of capital. And so, this is why I'm forecasting and I do this with a lot of companies that have these kinds of balance sheets, I forecast an increase in debt similar to what you've seen Apple do over the previous decade, right?
Tim Cook has been a master of this strategy of minimizing the weighted average cost of capital. What's Apple done in the previous decade or more? They've borrowed tens of billions if not hundreds of billions of dollars. I've track of how much money Apple has borrowed over the previous decade and they've used the money that they borrowed and they bought back stock.
So, they changed the target capital structure by borrowing more money and then when they're buying back stock, they're reducing the amount of the business that's financed with equity. So, I expect AMD will do similar things and other companies in this position. So, now we come to where we can arrive at the fair value.
So, we have the value of operations that we estimated all of the free cash flow, we discounted them using the weighted average cost of capital and now we get the value of operations, we add some non-operating assets, subtract the debt, we arrive at a value of equity and we divide that by the number of shares outstanding to arrive at the intrinsic value per share or fair value at $359 compared to the current market price it's $466.
So, to answer the question posed in the headline, no, AMD is not an undervalued stock. Its market price has increased by more than the fundamentals justify, and so now the market price is well above the intrinsic value per share. And for those reasons, I don't have AMD stock rated as a buy. In fact, I have AMD stock rated as a hold.
I did have AMD stock rated as a buy. I remember when it crashed to $190 per share. I informed all of you that was a great buying opportunity at 180 190, but when the stock price soared well above its intrinsic value, I downgraded the stock back to a hold.
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