저자: PatrickMoorhead · 외국인
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TSMC 1분기 실적이 컨센서스를 상회(순이익 전년비 60%↑)하고 연간 성장 전망을 유지했다. 2025년 선단 웨이퍼는 사실상 매진 상태. 다만 반도체 관세 확대나 스마트폰·PC 관세 재도입 시 리스크가 크다. 엔비디아는 H20 수출통제로 약 55억달러 손실을 기록했고, 중국 매출 비중(20~30%)이 위험 요인이다. 인텔은 주가가 장부가 근처이며 장기적으로 유망하다는 견해를 밝혔다. 삼성·인텔의 TSMC 점유율 잠식 가능성도 언급했다.
다듬은 글
And Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is projecting confidence in the face of tariff-driven pressure, leaving its full-year growth outlook unchanged. The Taiwanese chipmaker had a robust first quarter, topping analyst estimates with a 60% year-over-year net income increase. The report comes after new US export controls roiled Nvidia and the broader chip sector on Wednesday.
Here we've got Patrick Moorhead, Moor Insights & Strategy founder, CEO, and chief analyst. Patrick, always great to speak with you here. Talk to me about your big takeaways from this TSMC print, given the fact that it's being seen as such a bellwether in an industry for tech that took a huge hit in markets on Wednesday.
Yes, zero surprises for me. I mean, essentially, this is all dependent on this Mag 7 CapEx buildout. And it's not that Apple isn't relevant in this scenario, but Apple got a reprieve on the on the tariff situation. So, that's looking pretty good. TSMC, while they didn't use the word sold out, they're essentially sold out for 2025 leading-edge wafers.
And regardless of the ebbs and the flows right now, this continues. But, you know, all bets are off if we see big big tariffs on semiconductors or reinstitution of the smartphone and PC tariffs that were that that went away last week. Patrick, I was running some charts this morning, just looking at the gross margins that have become a little bit normalized and steadily grown for TSMC.
And and that's even with the introduction and increasing talk and investments around some potential competitors in the future, but it really kind of solidifies how much they are the de facto type of play here. Even with potential competition in the future, are these margins attainable over a longer term period of time?
We're We're levels between in mid kind of 55% I think the average is at about 57% gross margin for this company. Is that something that's able to be replicated even with the entrance of new competition in the space? Yeah, so TSMC margins are obscene or obscenely awesome depending on which lens you want to look at and there's talks of a 30% price increase in in the US.
And right now they're they're essentially they're they're testing their ability to raise prices and what TSMC will say is that we need this money to go in and do some massive capex, but with profits raising and capex raising at the same time it doesn't look like this. I think this opens the door for companies like Intel, for companies like Samsung to take some high-end market share away from TSMC.
I would put a 100% chance that on a percentage basis TSMC loses market share. All it takes is Intel or or Samsung to get one major customer and this will happen. Just very quickly Patrick, a follow-up regarding TSMC amid the Trump administration. What is the potential headwind that this company could be facing because they've already been threatened with more tariffs or taxes rather if they don't produce in the US.
So I I I think you nailed it right there. I mean, the biggest headwind they have is is the threat of tariffs. The second would be if the US economy or the global economy goes into recession and that puts pressure on the mag seven capex which then reduces the amount of those high-end GPUs and high-end CPUs and accelerators that are driving this economy today.
Super quick, Patrick. To what extent do you foresee TSMC's results this morning impacting Apple moving forward? So, I don't think it impacts Apple at all at this point. Again, TSMC's forecasts were based on no huge changes in Apple business. That could change with a tweet. It could change with an executive order on any changes to not only semiconductor tariffs, but also devices that come out of China that would dramatically and very negatively impact Apple.
Yeah. And And Patrick, I'd be remiss to not talk to you about Nvidia. Nvidia taking a five and a half billion-dollar hit due to export controls. The stock dropping significantly off the back of that. Just barely above the flatline today. CEO Jensen Huang is in Beijing, according to state media. Talk to me about what this tit-for-tat over tariffs means for Nvidia.
Just how big a headwind is it for Nvidia to be able to beat the street's sky-high estimates moving forward? Yeah, so H20, while a five and a half billion-dollar write-off is is not zero, I think the biggest risk here is is is if this escalates. And with Nvidia doing Nvidia, Intel, and AMD doing between 20 and 30% of their business inside of China, that's the biggest threat that it escalates and gets into not just data center accelerators, but also notebook GPUs, gaming GPUs, CPUs from AMD and Intel.
And so, with that in mind, at this juncture, for investors that are trying to best game out what they're seeing actually in some of the options AI market as well. I mean, this is a potential 11% move to the upside or downside by this next time Nvidia reports earnings. What should they be kind of looking at as either a psychological marker or perhaps a technical marker that determines whether or not this is a safe level to invest?
Yeah, I think looking at the psychological marker which is and not too many people are talking about this. I think the Trump administration is painting itself into a little bit of corner and is trying to find a way to get out of this because they know that if you bring down Apple, you bring down Nvidia, you're tanking the market.
So, I feel pretty confident over the next 90 days that this is going to be resolved. I think it'll be hard for Nvidia to give a rock solid forecast, but I do think that they will give one based on the information they know and then out the other side of their mouth they're going to say these are these are the risks of that forecast.
So, then Patrick, which chips name should investors who have a long-term horizon be investing in right now? Long-term horizon 5 years, I believe that the best bet is Intel and that might come as a surprise to everybody out there, but it's trading near book value. It's 18 A and 14 A process are on schedule.
We're going to continue to have a push on US company US built semiconductors. All Intel has to do is hit a couple of not home runs, just getting to second base and you're going to see you're going to see Intel move a ton. And also Lip-Bu Tan, we haven't seen any of the big decisions that he's made yet as a new CEO and I think whatever he puts out there whether it's massive job cuts, R&D cuts, sale of assets.
He just uh, Altera. Uh, I think these will be positive uh, news for investors with Intel. Yeah, I was just about to acknowledge that, Patrick. It's a larger question of how much of the business as we know it right now is still intact or if there's a kind of sum of parts that we're going to be looking at in the future. Patrick, as always, thanks so much for taking the time. Thank you.
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