저자: UnrivaledInvesting진행자 · 외국인
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마이클 베리의 2023년 4분기 13F 보유 종목을 분석. 알리바바·JD닷컴(깊은 가치주, 잉여현금흐름 대비 저평가), HCA, 오라클, 시티그룹, CVS, 블록 등 25개 포지션, 총 약 9400만 달러로 확신보다 분산 투자로 해석. 베리 전략을 그대로 따르기보다 본인 확신을 쌓는 것이 중요하며, Danaher·Mettler-Toledo 등 과학장비 기업 연관 테마도 제시. 유료 구독 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
in just the last hour or so Michael bur from Canan Asset Management has filed his updated holding so you can see what he's buying and selling Michael bur was portrayed by Christian Bale in The Big Short where he made a boatload and he actually he's called several bets very well over time a lot of things he didn't call right in In fairness but he has made a lot of money for himself and his clients over arguably two of the past downturns looking at the great financial prices as well as the bubble uh he was looking at stocks that were trading at you know well below liquidation value that performed very well so it's his nature I believe to look for these sort of deep value plays and so you look at his current Holdings and this is current as of December 31st 2023 so it could have changed subsequently but based on the filing required to file as of today today's the deadline uh you can see he actually had a very busy fourth quarter a lot of different buying and selling uh you know when you're looking at these positions the top two positions it appears around 12% of his portfolio are Alibaba and jd.com I think a lot of deep value investors are considering taking a speculative position on these companies partly because they've gotten so absolutely trounced that you know you're you're looking at very low multiples to free cash flow you're talking about five to 10 times free cash flow for these types of businesses which are you know dominant e-commerce players in China now there are you know other players that are growing faster arguably taking market share but they've gotten so beat up and they're starting to return so much Capital to shareholders that I think you are seeing the Deep value players like Michael buy saying hey it is worthwhile to make it a larger percent of its portfolio recognizing that this isn't going to be appropriate for everybody's Journey a lot of people don't like myself included don't like to think about well what's the CP you know what's the CP uh you know what's the Chinese Communist Party the CCP going to do uh you know could they dramatically change change the taxes or the framework in the in the near future that could lower your returns I just don't like thinking about it so it's not a core part of my portfolio uh but you could see that Michael bur is taking a speculative position saying hey this has gotten so beaten up and the values are you know so low that you know maybe there's hundreds of percent upside over time for these companies and when you look at what he's you know during this quarter he did buy a lot of different things you know not just JD and Alibaba but you see HCA healthc care Oracle City Group CVS I've done videos on City group and CVS before they're a little bit dated I recently wrote a letter about CVS on how several other value investors were starting to buy it uh that that letter is exclusive to my subscribers at unrival investing you know Google is also buying Amazon so some of these things are deep value some of these things I think are maybe more speculative in nature uh you know you see block he even bought he bought toast I mean this is big lock which is supposed to you know it might be facing some sort of restructuring so this this might get completely wiped out but there's a lot of different bets here that's one of the things that you should you know note from this and it is worth having some perspective on this which is that michaelb because of his prior successful bets his net worth is estimated to be around $1.2 billion so arguably let's say between1 and two2 billion then tackle you know then throw on you know the fact that runs Scion asset management and that probably includes some clients that you know were loyal to him that he says hey you can invest along with me so really his assets under management I presume are probably closer to you know a couple billion dollars realistically in terms of the Firepower that you're looking at the liquidity that you're looking at with Michael bur and so when you see that his updated Holdings for the fourth quarter include 25 different positions and $94 million invest investment versus you know a net worth that's arguably you know billion dollars or buying power assets under management that could be several billion dollars it does reflect that while he's been buying a lot of things it suggests he's actually lacking in conviction about this you know s saying maybe I'm going to participate with the rally that's going on by buying a bunch of you know individual positions that he thinks could tag along with the market that might not be you know extremely overvalued and you know buying these little things where he's like oh this is just so cheap I have to buy it but I I look at this in the $95 million versus Net worth versus so it makes me think he's either not buying US Stocks uh or another possibility is you know he's holding on to lots of cash and I personally keep my cash at interactor Brokers yielding currently over 4.8% so I see the link below and so I wonder if that's you know what he's actually doing because yes he bought a lot of new positions but none of which looked particularly High conviction so how can you possibly benefit from following along with Michael bu because a lot of people feel sort of burned by you know he's saying one thing and then you know a week couple weeks later he changes his mind first of all in full disclosure this is not Financial advice also quick plug recently on our exclusive Discord server a member relayed to me that the unrivaled premium subscription has the best cost performance ratio that's a direct quote uh relative to Alternative investing subscription services available so if you're looking for compelling investment ideas consider unraveled investing which includes a weekly letter and my personal portfolio updates in real time so I also have educational materials as well how to read financial statements how to value a stock which I designed you know based on my own experience working on Wall Street sort of say what would I have wanted to know when I first started out based on this experience so the challenge with michaelb is that there is a lot of noise you know previously he said you know sell he tweeted that then he said I was wrong to sell and then he deletes his tweets and honestly this is just too much for most investors to process you know there's there's just a lot of activity and you know he might buy in one quarter and then the next quarter you know halfway through when when you see it he's already selling out of it and this is the activity from the third quarter where you can see he blew out of most of these positions some of which he actually bought back you know shortly later so maybe that was some tax loss selling like MGM Resorts um so it's it's unclear uh but but either way you're talking about an investor that is very active and it makes it harder for investors to benefit so how can you benefit by potentially looking at Michael bur's Holdings well one is to scour through all his Holdings what's he buying and then run it through another filter I personally run it through AI ticker chat using their AI predict feature to sort of say hey does the math checkout on this holding that might warrant let's say 100 200% plus upside in which case it might be worth you know doing for the review in HCA Healthcare that was one of the stocks he bought and using artificial intelligence it's saying hey based on the transcripts based on their latest results here's a framework for thinking about it and this is starting point for me so that way I can quickly go through these different Holdings and say okay maybe this is the one I want to dive into you know and this is one that I don't you know I did the same thing for Oracle and it didn't look as compelling whereas this this is you know looks a lot cheaper trading around a teens type earnings the largest healthc care or L largest hospital provider I believe in the United States or one of the largest so I I don't think it's going anywhere it does have some debt but a lot of free cash flow as well I think Al investors that want to sort of Leverage the knowledge of others is better suited to look at investors with lower turnover for example Pat dorsy running de dorsy Asset Management I believe he used to run morning Stars research program he also wrote a book I I don't have it over my shoulder but it's part of the series the little book series I think it's called the little book uh that builds wealth and Pat dorsy wrote that book and it was a framework that actually I I I remember reading that book and reading all of Warren Buffett's letters and and thinking wow he did a really great job summarizing the key uh points that Buffett makes in across dozens of letters uh in terms of what are the types of competitive advantages that you could look for and so that's that's a good book if if you want to think about competitive advantages little book that builds wealth by Pat dorsy and so I like looking at this one because it's more concentrated portfolio it's a much larger portfolio around $800 million much lower turnover and so occasionally there's only you know like in the the quarter there was only one new buy and so that's like okay I want to learn more about danaher this is a company with a long track record and it's gone through many different Transformations over time now it's mostly I believe a a a lab and you know science equipment type of business um but historically this a business that has done very well uh and it's interesting because not only is Pat dorsy buying danur but I look at Michael bur and two of his positions that he bought were also companies and so here it is you can see the summary from AI ticker chat that are tied to the same type of scientific instruments analytical and diagnostic Solutions type of businesses so it makes me wonder if there's a broader thesis between danaher Brooker metler Toledo that might suggest that there's you know that maybe they all sold off and there's an opportunity as they rebound it's something that I want to learn more about and this I I think this is the key lesson for investors is that you can't uh borrow the conviction that michaelb has you can borrow an idea but you can't borrow that the conviction that he has you know when he buys or sells something so that conviction is going to need to come from you and so you're going to have to you know review these ideas if you're interested uh or you can go to you know someone like me at unrival investing.com and you can you know I will go through these and I'll call out what I think is interesting and I'll do a weekly letter um and so or I'll do a you know monthly update with a video that goes over some some of the ideas I find interesting and so you know you you can't borrow that like oh well this is the reason why he bought it and so you need to do your own steps to say okay this is even if he sells in the future I'm still going to own it for these reasons I mean I personally benefited greatly from you know seeing that he bought McKesson you know over a year ago and then I bought it myself and went over 100% And you know even though he sold out of it I still held because I was like okay I've built my own conviction and I think generally there's a couple of ways that you can build conviction in positions one of which is by learning about the business but another key aspect and this is sort of the my my my dad likes to talk about being risk averse and so some sometimes he talks about you know he likes to wear a belt and suspenders he he doesn't actually but a belt and suspenders approach to life and uh it's you know that's that's one way of framing it another way of framing it uh recently there is a John Malone interview and he said uh he he's a hedger and he never puts both on the table uh if you know what I mean and uh you know so that you know this this idea that being risk adverse means okay how do you ensure that you don't blow up and you know how do you how do you ensure that the downside is mitigated and so I think with bur often times it's looking at these things with lots of free cash flow but that's that's only one aspect to it the part that that I personally prefer versus the let's say buying at a low multiple to free cash flow which is an approach but can lead to higher turnover my personal approach is I'm not looking for all this hyperactivity I want to find things that I can sit and hold for years and possibly decades into the future and so for for me that means the the belt and suspenders is going to need to come from some sort of alignment with management now there's two ways you can get that with from from management one of which is management either owns a lot of stock and if management owns a lot of stock it's their life's work it's their mission to grow this business this is their canvas and they're painting on and they're saying I can't wait for this business to you know I'm so excited to keep building I'm tap dancing to work that's one way you're a lot less likely to have a blowup risk when someone's truly passionate about what they're building so that's that's one perspective the other perspective is sometimes a business has been around so long you can no longer get those Founders and that's the example with mckasson is you didn't have a Founder in it but the alternative path is that you have management that you have such a high degree of confidence that they'll be be able to return the free cash flow to you as a shareholder and maybe they make that very clear saying hey we're not going to go after some large Acquisitions we're not going to overpay and you know because the stock trades in such a low multiple to free cash flow we're aware of it and we're going to return it to you so then it turns into really a financial engineering type of problem we going okay I may not have super high confidence in management but I also don't think they're going to screw me over because they've made it clear this is the the path for shareholder returns and it's going to come through maybe not a lot of growth but that cash going to me as a shareholder each year either through BuyBacks or through dividends and so I think those that's broadly how I'm personally looking you know at this is I I look at the Holdings and then say okay how do I get comfortable you know how do I build my own conviction on some of these and most of the time it's not most of the time I say I I can't do it because you don't have the founder or you don't have management that clearly articulates hey here's the free cash flow that's going to go to you as a shareholder case in point one of his top Holdings is CVS and keep in mind it these are all relatively small I personally view like I bet he could 10x one of those positions easily and so I I think these are a bunch of small small bets that he's placed sort of saying okay I think the market keeps Rising he probably has a large cash position and you know he he doesn't have super high conviction but he's he's buying a lot of things and it's you're better off looking for those investors that have lower turnover more concentrated portfolio um but with it but going back to the case of CVS that's a company trading at a low multiple to free cash flow I believe around 10 times free cash flow uh and the challenge is management has historically squandered that free cash flow on some Acquisitions where you go really like you're you're paying this much for that and so the that's part of the reason why it trades at that discount so if you have confidence that management can no longer or will no longer make those Acquisitions then you know you might say oh okay it's it's worth buying um but that's that those are the different perspectives to consider I hope this video talking about Michael bur's latest investment update also more broadly how you might benefit from it which is not just you know looking at the ideas and saying oh I got to buy and sell it it's it's it's really sort of like a cheat sheet of potential ideas where you go okay maybe this is something that aligns with my own personal journey and it's appropriate for you to recognize that everyone has their own type of Journey Michael bur's done very well he's worth over a billion dollars and he's more comfortable with this hyperactivity I'm personally you know much more comfortable with lower turnover just trying to find management that I love and trying to pay a fair price and watch it grow each year you know I call out my Holdings once again at unravel investing.com I hope this video has been helpful for you please make point of hitting that Thumbs Up Hit That subscribe button thanks so much for tuning in
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