저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC 4분기 실적 발표 직후 주가 6.4% 상승. 매출 157.4억달러(전년비 약24%, 컨센서스 상회), 1분기 가이던스 166~172억달러로 컨센서스 상회. 매출 성장은 HPC 수요 주도, 5nm 비중 확대(약23%). 2022년 CAPEX 400~440억달러로 대폭 증가 전망. 2022 반도체 시장(메모리 제외) 9% 성장 전망. 발표자 본인은 TSM 미보유, 장기 적립식 접근 고려 언급.
다듬은 글
today's episode we are going to take a quick look at some great news in the semiconductor industry you guys know this is my favorite market and it's all thanks to taiwan semiconductors amazing earnings so today's episode is gonna be broken down into the following first we're gonna take a quick overview on their earnings second we're going to take a quick look at some highlights and finally i'm going to share my overall thoughts for free discord free newsletter and a lot of great investing links and earning season is starting back up tsm is the first one i'm gonna i have done so far again this presentation is free and it is included in my weekly newsletter all right so taiwan semiconductor reported their earnings this morning and we can see the stock price is up 6.39 right now and this is pretty much when most of growth stocks and most of the market is still kind of taking a hit and 6.4 is pretty impressive especially for a company this size of a market cap of 658 billion dollars right you very rarely see a company this big kind of move with that kind of velocity and it's all thanks to that overall earnings let's take a quick look at the overview quarter for revenue and take a and take a quick look at us dollars was 15.74 billion dollars that was about 24 year over year and it was up about 5.8 quarter over quarter one of the big reasons i wouldn't say stock price is up outside of guidance which we'll look at is this revenue did beat analysts expectations then we can see gross margins were 52.7 operating margins were 41.7 profit margins are as high as 37.9 for the quarter these are up quarter over quarter unfortunately they are a bit down year over year one of the biggest reasons i want to say is obviously a nice increase in capital expenses to some extent have kind of driven a little bit year-over-year growth and we're gonna see uh next they kind of gave us a quarter one outlook and for quarter one they expect about 16.6 billion to 17.2 billion dollars and this is much higher than analyst expectations let's see if i have analyst expectations here yep we can see revenue estimates we're expecting somewhere around 15.84 for the march 2022 so they are expecting much more growth there i do believe this is the prime reason the overall market is up especially the overall stock is up they expect gross margins to be 53 to 55 operating margins to be about 42 and 44 a little bit nice a little bit increased quarter over quarter uh compared to this most recent quarter they do mention that the the huge growth in revenue is driven by high performance computing demand this is your data centers right data center servers enterprise servers so this is pretty impressive and if we are in other semiconductor companies it can kind of bring kind of a bullish sentiment towards there they're also seeing a nice increase in automotive recovery unfortunately they are seeing a bit of milder seasonality in the phones compared to usual uh that one kind of struck me a little bit fortunately i'm not much in any mobile industry companies but if you are just something to keep in mind of all right so that was a quick look at their earnings so nice overview i hope you guys enjoy it now let's take a quick look at some of the highlights and some of the things that really grabbed my attention but before we begin all right so next i wanted to take a quick look at how their revenue was broken one by technology and two by market and here we can see from their investor slides for quarter one of 2021 revenue by technology about 50 of the revenue comes from just two chip size the seven nanometers and the five nanometers we can see five nanometer was about 23 7 nanometer was about 27 and one thing what we're seeing is a huge growth in the five nanometer chips we can see compared to just in second quarter of 2020 uh uh so about a year and a half ago five nanometer was nowhere near uh wasn't even kind of collecting any form of revenue for this company but the overall technological advancement of kind of processing units now using five nanometer it has become a nice player almost collecting a quarter of revenue this most recent quarter uh so we can see revenue by technology in 2021 here now here's where i think it's pretty cool the quarter 2021 revenue by platform most of the revenue comes from two main markets the smartphone and the high performance computing here in the high performance computer and this is where you get your processors and your graphics cards in your smartphones you get any type of chips that deal obviously within that market but what i do want to say is all the markets that they're in this quarter grew dramatically automobile for example grew 10 percent smartphone grew seven percent high performance groups three percent quarter over quarter these are not year over year growth these are quarter over quarter growth and if we take a quick look at the overall 2021 revenue again we can see high performance computing again these are the chips that go on data servers uh graphics cards processors that makes up 37 smartphones make up 44 and now if we take a nice look at growth rate year over year automotive grew 51 percent remember we're kind of seeing a recovery in auto automotive market so you would expect that to see it um but the one that i'm super excited about is look at the high performance computing 34 i do believe this bodes well for companies like amd intel and nvidia to some extent then you have the smartphone industry up eight percent compared to the same time last year and you have the internet of things also up 21 so we can see the overall market is still growing at impressive levels now i do want to talk about something that i found super interesting is capex so capital expenses this is how the company uses their money to kind of either improve their overall technology maybe investing in kind of foundries and new equipment and look at this growth for 2022 they expect capex to be somewhere between 40 to 44 billion dollars that's a lot of money where 2021 they used about 30 billion so in just a year they're growing dramatically the amount of capex uh and in 2020 they used about 18 billion so this is insane they do mention that 70 to 80 of capex will be spent for their advanced technology and what they call advanced technology is anything below seven nanometers so seven nanometers five nanometers uh technology and that's where they're seeing most of the growth that's where obviously most of the revenue comes from at the moment and that's where they believe they're gonna spend most of their capex so pretty interesting now that we took a quick look at the highlights i just want to share my overall thoughts on the company and in the overall semiconductor market so i took a listen to their earnings call and few things really grabbed my attention the first thing is for 2022 they expect the total semiconductor market excluding memory to grow nine percent this is really good right because this means obviously there's plenty of players in the semiconductor industry some of them are going to grow higher than nine percent and i i fortunately believe that i own some of those companies that are going to be expected to grow at some high double-digit markets they also believe that foundry's revenue there's obviously numerous boundaries out there the growth is close to 20 tsm believes that they can grow and outperform the foundries and grow somewhere between mid to high 20 this is becoming a huge huge growth stock finally i just want to share right now i do not own any shares of tsm i am in other semiconductor place right now if i was to enter my portfolio this would be somewhere of a tier 2 stock based on the stock price that i see right now and this kind of overall jump i personally wouldn't jump in with a big position at the moment this is more of like a low dollar cost average over time i do believe there's probably better buying opportunities but at the same time who knows when that would happen but if we take a quick look at their forward ev to ebitda ratios we can see they're sitting at about 13.97 right now it doesn't scream crazily overvalued compared to where it's been in the past year but compared to it was pre-coveted obviously they do see kind of uh it's a little bit overvalued to there so like i mentioned for me it's more like a low dollar cost average if it was to ever enter in my portfolio at the end of the day i do believe this is great news for the semiconductor industry
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