저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
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2021년 12월 기준 AMD와 엔비디아는 최고가 대비 중반대 하락했으나 연초 대비 각각 약 50%, 113% 상승. AMD는 서버 CPU(EPYC) 성장, Instinct MI200 가속기, 매출 전년비 54%, 무차입 수준 재무가 강점이며 Xilinx 인수 지연 가능성은 리스크. 엔비디아는 게이밍(전년비 42%)과 데이터센터(전년비 55%) 성장, 소프트웨어 생태계 확장을 강조. 공통 리스크는 경쟁, 반도체 공급 부족 반전, 높은 밸류에이션, 암호화폐 채굴 둔화. 두 종목 모두 보유 중이며 소액 분할 매수 관점 제시.
다듬은 글
welcome back to another episode it's been a crazy crazy week i want to say probably even two weeks in the market a lot of growth stocks are taking up beating but today's episode want to take a quick look at some stocks that have been holding up pretty well and these are some of my favorite companies this is going to be amd and nvidia both are holding pretty well in today's episode i want to take a quick look at some of the bearish cases for each company but also the bullish cases and why i own each of these of these companies right so these free presentations of all the stocks that i've been covering this quarter and i will be doing the same thing next quarter also my free discord you also get a lot of great investing ideas on the links below so make sure to do that so let's just jump right into it right amd and nvidia right now they're down a nice amount mid teens from their all-time highs this is definitely seen quite a pullback but compared to some of these other growth stocks that are down over 30 over 40 or 50 these stocks are holding up pretty pretty well and for the overall year i'm pretty sure they're doing pretty strong if we take a look year to date we can see amd is up about 50 and we can see nvidia up about 113 so both these companies even though they're down a nice amount from all-time highs they have been kind of pulling and doing well for the market so let's just take a quick look at amd so amd this is a tier one stock in my portfolio and yes i do own shares the first bullish case for this company is i want to say their third generation server processor continues to win big for example on november 30th amd epic processors offerings continue to grow at aws with new instances for general purpose commute uh computing power right and this is their third generation continuously strong growth earlier in november 10th they continue to see that growth as well when ibm cloud selects their third generation amd epic processor for new bare metal offerings for compute intensive workloads and this has been the trend overall this past quarter in their most recent earnings lisa sue the ceo mentioned that amd's third generation epic processor is one of the fastest adopted server processor that they've had so far and the response is just positive we continue to see that the second i want to say big bullish case for my opinion for amd is their kind of growth in the accelerators right their g graphics card accelerators which are used for numerous high performance computing and artificial intelligence performance they recently released new amd instinct mi 200 and the mi 200 is amazing compared to the competition with the results that they've provided the other thing i want to say is amd continues to bring innovative technology to some of the biggest companies out there for example the new tesla model s and model x will feature new ryzen processors as well there have been some online reports and i'm pretty sure if you google just amd and tesla today you will be able to see some reviews of some new cars already shipping with amd's chips and how they work a lot faster compared to the previous chips that were being used but before we begin let's take a guys know i love finding new investing tools and resources to help me scout out new growth stocks and right now i have a discount for one of my favorite services the full offers through the motley fool of stock advisor services you get access to tons of expert stock picks every month you'll get two new picks that are aimed at growing your wealth and to help you realize your financial goals stock advisors average stock picks have done amazing returns if growing your money is something you'd like to do more of this year you can visit fool.com jose naharo or click on the link below for access to my special offer and decide if the stock visor is right for you thanks again to the motley fool and now on to today's video my third kind of bullish point for amd is this is overall a growth story but not only a gross story this is also i want to say a business that is profitable we can see record revenue was up 54 year-over-year in this most recent quarter gross margins look a whopping 48 cash and cash equivalents of about 3.6 million dollars very very low debt also and they have positive cash flow in both operating cash flow and free cash flow so overall this is a business that is not going to go anywhere anytime soon and that is continuing to innovate the final thing i want to mention about amdx in my opinion a big bullish case is this silence acquisition there's still there has been some talks that this might be seeing a bit of delay but leadership hasn't really announced anything so far i do expect this is to be on track for the end of the year or maybe maybe the first quarter of 2022 there are some bearish cases and i do want to say the bearish cases that are for amd i do believe are similar shared for nvidia i do believe nvidia has one extra bullish case a bearish case that will mention when we talk a look at that company but first is competition amd has huge competitions in the cpus in the gpu market we can see nvidia being one of them intel is being another and pretty much big tech itself are kind of creating their own chips as well so i think the competition is still out there the second thing is the semiconductor shortage so even though the semiconductor shortage i feel is one of the reasons these companies are growing at crazy levels they're unable to keep up with demand if the shortage or if companies over order which tends to happen in the semiconductor company in the semiconductor market sometimes companies over order and then demand slows down a bit this time people are saying it's different but in reality is it ever any different so if semiconductor shortage stops and demand eases up it can kind of backfire for both amd and nvidia again these are risks that wouldn't prevent me from buying the company but just something to keep in mind of hey these things can kind of mess around or create volatility in stock price the sec the third thing i want to say is high valuations if we take a look at amd and forms a forward eb to a beetle ratio right now sitting at about 38.58 this is a bit higher compared to where it was in since january of 2020 it has kind of pulled back from its highs still i believe this is high values doesn't mean i won't buy it just tells me hey jose understand the risk and if we take a quick look at technicals i do believe it's pulled back a nice amount to a short-term moving average i do like it at 137 for a small dollar cost averaging position but i i do believe charge could still continue to pull back with the overall volatility it's not a guaranteed just an added risk i do want to say the final risk could be crypto mining race crypto minings do slow down there could be a influx in second in the second-hand market of graphics cards which can kind of reduce the revenue amd is collecting from the gpus but at the moment the cpu processors like ryzen's are really driving this company so even though it could be an offset i don't think it could impact too much but again analysts would probably kind of put so much bearish thesis in something like that that it would cont it would kind of create a bearish sentiment in the stock price now the second company we're gonna take a quick look at and the second one is my favorite favorite company and my number one position in the market and that is nvidia so if we take a quick look at nvidia first is just the overall growth story this is a company that most recent earnings grew very similar 50 year over year it is positive in earnings per share is positive and cash flow from operations a strong balance sheet so the gross story but also a profitable story them right now market is real nvidia is doing amazing similar to amd we can see right uh some other bullish cases in my my opinion the markets in the gaming and data center gaming is still growing we can see strong quarter over quarter growth 42 year-over-year growth as they see strong demand across desktop and notebooks laptop gpus also pros posted strong year-over-year growth led by high-end rtx laptops so right now a lot of people are buying higher model laptops i personally just bought one i want to say a month ago next if we take a look at their data center data center was up 24 quarter quarter 55 year-over-year record quarter driven by strong growth across both hyperscale and vertical customers so this is huge demand i do believe as more companies continue to improve the the word metaverse or kind of enter the metaverse market we're gonna continue to see huge growth in data center markets as well uh what else do we see numerous softwares and i believe this is one of my favorite things i i feel like i say that about nvidia all the time um but nvidia their ceo during the earnings called mention one thing graphics um chips don't make the market i'm paraphrasing he says that software makes the market so what he's saying here is he gives the chips or nvidia is creating a purpose for their chips and the more purposes that they have the more their chips will sell out uh nvidia is now a leader in the software market comp com making numerous softwares for artificial intelligence artificial voice for enterprise they also have stuff for cyber security stuff for uh health benefits numerous numerous markets in the artificial intelligence world the metaverse with the omniverse right simulations uh automation simulation robotic simulations the list goes on and i do believe this is the reason why nvidia continues to be a leader in this market nvidia is expected to announce breakthroughs in latest accelerator computing um computing technology on january 4th of 2022 i wonder if they're gonna come out with some new chips with some new cards that's where i'm gonna be keeping my eyes out so now some of the bearish points for nvidia very very similar to amd competition competition is everywhere right now with some of the big players like amd like intel the semiconductor shortage again can kind of backfire i want to say the nvidia valuation right now is a lot higher compared to amd's and this kind of worries me a bit i feel like if there is a made a pullback on nvidia because of a slip up the stock price can really see heavy heavy volatility and can really see a downturn at the same time i'm not here trying to time the market so i'm not going to sell my shares anytime soon but personally i am prepared to expect my portfolio to see a nice drop if nvidia and i wouldn't say if i would probably say more like when nvidia kind of pulls down the question is when will that happen so that to me is the biggest biggest risk look at then the other things like the crypto mining can kind of affect uh revenue as graphics cards might hit second market at the same time this new these new graphics cards that they have are still into are not in many gamers hands so i don't think it can definitely impact analysts would really fight it and kind of bring bearish sentiments towards it uh but i think would be more short-term volatility noise the final bearish point i do want to say is their arm acquisition it's very unlikely for this to happen it seems like the market has kind of accepted that but still i i wouldn't say if the news officially announces that they're no longer going to be able to pursue the arm acquisition i do believe it could bring some small bearish sentiment to the stock price in forms of valuations or technicals right now nvidia has also kind of it's pretty high this to me is more like a small dollar cost averaging position not a time for me to personally enter big big i think maybe in the low 200s if we get there that's where i would really go ham
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