저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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한줄결론: 연준의 자산매입이 지속되는 한 주식시장은 과평가 상태라도 상승 흐름을 유지할 수 있으며, 장기적으로는 달러 약세를 기반으로 비미국 주식과 신흥국 주식이 유리하다고 주장. 연준 정책과 금리: 연준은 단기금리를 제로로 유지하겠다고 약속했고 장기금리(10년물)까지 억제하려는 것으로 보임. 30년물 국채금리는 연초 약 2.5%에서 2% 이하로 내려갔음. 실질금리는 마이너스 3~4%로 1970년대 말 수준과 비슷하다고 언급. 금리 적정성: 역사적 지표(CPI, 구리/금 비율 등)를 보면 10년물 금리는 현재보다 최소 100~200bp 높아야 한다는 주장. 주식 vs 채권: 주식은 PER, 쉴러 CAPE, PBR 기준으로 역사적으로 과평가 상태이나, 채권 대비로는 상대적으로 저렴하다고 봄. S&P500의 이익수익률이 채권 대비 평균 이하라는 근거 제시. 연준 대차대조표와 증시: S&P500 시가총액이 연준 대차대조표(8조 달러 이상)와 거의 일정 비율로 움직여 왔으며, 대차대조표가 확대되는 한 증시에 순풍이 된다고 봄. 포트폴리오 전략: 영구포트폴리오 변형(현금 25% 이하, 장기국채 25%, 주식 25%, 금 25%)을 제시. 금은 실물자산 대용 자리로 보유. 주식 배분: 더블라인은 올해 초부터 유럽 주식 비중을 확대. 미국과 유럽 증시는 2020년 중반 이후 동조화되었으나 유럽이 밸류에이션 면에서 저렴하다고 봄. 달러 전망: 재정적자와 무역적자 확대가 겹치면 달러가 역사적으로 약세로 이어진다고 보며, 최근 달러 강세는 추세 반전 직전의 역추세 움직임으로 판단. 장기적으로 달러가 상당히 하락할 것이라는 가장 확신하는 견해 제시. 금: 최근 1800달러 부근 횡보로 부진했으나 장기적으로는 크게 오를 것으로 전망. 현재는 '동면' 상태라고 표현. 원자재: 5월까지 강세였으나 이후 횡보. 비트코인: 경기부양 수표가 투기적 거래로 흘러간 점과 정부 통제에서 벗어난 자산이라는 인식 때문에 급등했다고 설명. 본인은 리스크가 커서 보유하지 않으며, 투기 수단으로 봄. 단기적으로 강세 전망은 하지 않음. 신흥국: 신흥국 주식은 극도로 저평가되어 있지만 코로나 확산과 백신 접근성 문제 때문에 올해 수익률이 마이너스. 장기적으로 유망하며 달러 약세 시 적극 비중 확대 계획이나 지금은 이르다고 판단. 출연자 리스크: 채권 금리 상승 가능성과 정책 변화(테이퍼링 논의)에 대한 경계를 언급.
다듬은 글
i'm pleased to bring in our special guest in a yahoo finance exclusive we have jeffrey gunlock the founder and ceo of double line capital jeffrey always great to have you on the program and as you and i have long talked about this relationship between the markets and the fed here and of course the fresh record high so kind of just stepping back big picture what do you make of what's transpired in the markets what's your overall view well the federal reserve uh earlier this year pretty much promised that short-term interest rates would stay at zero for at least a couple more years and they seem to also be interested in controlling a little bit the shape of the yield curve and controlling even long-term interest rates so the 30-year treasury bond got up to around two and a half percent uh earlier this year and now it seems like can't get above two percent even though inflation's been increasing and that's one of the reasons why i say i think the fed is behind the scenes uh trying to manipulate interest rates lower at the long end um so they've been extending the maturity of their quantitative easing which is 80 billion dollars of treasuries per month and 40 million billion dollars in mortgage-backed securities and there's some some uh whispering behind the scenes that maybe they're going to start thinking about tapering that quantitative easing but as long as it's going on they keep the bond yields at a very very low level i mean we've we have negative real interest rates that are rivaling the jimmy carter era of the late 70s with the cpi on the headline at about 5.4 and on the court about 4.3 either way you look at it you're at negative three or negative four percent real interest rates and so what i've been talking about uh for most of this year is that as overvalued as stocks are relative to historical measures like the price earnings ratio or dr schiller's cape ratio or price to book and all that sort of stuff as overvalued as they look by historical measures they still are cheaper than bonds treasury bonds and that's one of the things that's bolstering the u.s stock market in addition to the stimulus in the economy so if you look at the inverse of the p e ratio which is kind of gives you a yield on say the s p 500 it's below average on its valuation versus bonds so simply bonds are so overvalued versus the inflation rate and versus economic growth and other measures like the copper gold ratio all of our typical benchmarks for treasuries that we use and have been very helpful over the years they all suggest that on a fundamental basis the 10-year treasury should be at least 100 basis points if not up to 200 basis points higher than it is versus economic and inflation fundamentals but it's not there because of the fed's policy and as long as the stimulus goes on the stock market can stay in very overvalued territory one of the things that i've been noticing for a decade now even more than a decade is that the stock market's market capitalization let's just use the s p 500 if you take that uh capitalization of the s p and compare it to the size of the fed's balance sheet which is the consequence of their quantitative easing which is now over eight trillion dollars if you compare the capitalization of the s p to the size of the fed's balance sheet it's almost a constant and it's been that way with very little variation it's almost like a law of physics it feels like a market physics anyway and so if as long as the fed is extending uh expanding its balance sheet there's a tailwind behind the stock market and so i think that's one of the reasons you're going to those new highs is that that's so over the bonds are so overvalued yeah it's an interesting analogy you make to almost like a law of physics if you will and jeffrey you mentioned stocks are still cheap relative to bonds when you look uh there i mean from an investor perspective though where are you thinking about wanting to be allocated have you kind of shifted your views of how you want to structure a portfolio given on the high valuations well a little bit um i've been for about a past year plus i've been i started advocating a little over a year ago kind of the construct of something that was a popular mutual fund back a decade ago called the permanent portfolio and it's 25 cash 25 percent long-term government bonds 25 stocks and 25 gold and not everybody loves gold but it's just a placeholder for real assets i think that with the promise of the fed at zero interest rates and their stimulus of the economy the cash percentage should probably be a little bit less than 25 and gold has been a very poor performer this year but commodities broadly have done very very well until may of this year and now they're going sideways when it comes to the stock allocation for the first time in i think more than a decade we at double line earlier this year start to allocate to european equities part of our equity holdings and the equity market united states and the equity market in europe uh have been very similar uh for for quite a while now really since the middle of 2020 the u.s stock market had been outperforming europe almost well consistently and almost constantly for a decade but starting in the middle of 2020 they're now moving in lock step and i think that the attractiveness of european stocks is based upon their valuation and kind of the structural uh aspect of the of the economy in europe seems to be in sync with the growth that's going on in the globe so we actually are now favoring european equities it hasn't worked really for the past year and a half but it hasn't not worked either they have the same type of return and since european equities are so much cheaper from a p e perspective or a shiller cape racial perspective and the fact that we believe ultimately that these deficits from the stimulus and from the trade deficit expanding also due to stimulus at the dollar although we've been bullish on the dollar for the past several months it's just a tactical move we think in the longer run the dollar really is going to fall fairly sharply because historically when you run massive budget deficits and simultaneously expanding trade deficits it's very highly correlated to dollar weakness what we're in right now with the dollar strength appears to be a counter trend move that may be nearing its end um as we as we move into the end of 2021 all right i want to go back and bring something up you mentioned gold being a poor performer and it just makes me a little bit curious because we've had a lot of talk about inflation lately i know you and i haven't discussed this you know i'm wondering why gold has been such a performer or is it you know because you know bitcoin suddenly becoming kind of this inflation hedge there's a lot of talk around it being i guess kind of a form of insurance uh what do you make of of that when gold's not performing when we talk about inflation that's a very good point uh you know gold has been stuck at 1800 i think it's almost exactly 1800 as we're speaking today and it got up to around 2000 and then just gave up the ghost this is about a year ago and now it's basically it's cheap when it says 1750 and seems like it's expensive relatives trading range in 1850 meanwhile as you correctly point out bitcoin has been on a wild roller coaster but broadly speaking it's up a lot and i think it has to do with the way the government stimulus has been sprinkled around uh very very broadly into the economy with stimulus checks going to people and i do think that the people that receive stimulus are probably more likely to to trade bitcoin than to deal in gold and so i do think that the stimulus has been a a booster for the relative performance of cryptocurrencies also it just seems that governments just seem to be becoming less and less in control of the situation and there seems to be a sort of societal cultural theme that people believe that that bitcoin and other cryptos are a little bit outside of the government i don't agree with that assessment but as long as that's the mentality of investors or speculators uh it can it can rule the day and i think that's what's happening with bitcoin do you see a place for bitcoin in a portfolio which curious like if you see merits there have you ever thought about owning the cryptocurrency no it's it's too risky for me i'm a i'm a i think i i gravitated to bonds partially because i was assigned to do bonds you know 35 40 years ago and i had an affinity for it but bond people are very low risk people people that want risk you know it's difficult to trade in bonds if you are interested in a wild ride because a big day in the bond market is the move of a percent you know and bitcoin can change 20 in an hour i've seen that happen so i've never i give advice on bitcoin and i'm actually not bullish on bitcoin i've been wrong uh on bitcoin recently uh but i i've been broadly bullish on bitcoin for about two years i just i just aren't i'm just not in the short term but bitcoin is clearly a tool of speculation and uh you know it's it's it's a great trading vehicle if if you want a lot of action and i think that's one of the the appeals a lot of people when you give them uh two thousand dollars or twelve hundred dollars whatever size a certain stimulus check can be they feel like they're playing to a certain extent with the house as money and uh bitcoin is a great vehicle for speculation far greater better vehicle for speculation than gold so no i've never been personally long or short bitcoin you mentioned um this kind of vehicle for speculation maybe it's like the broader theme of what's kind of happening in the markets how do you kind of see this movie playing out jeffrey how are you thinking about it like maybe even the longer term consequences well the longer term consequences of u.s policies are going to be it's one of the reasons why i favor non-us stocks not emerging markets even though they're super cheap emerging market stocks are so cheap compared to develop market stocks but there's a reason for that cheapness and that's the the covid problem is so much more significant in emerging markets with health care systems and vaccinations not available in many cases so emerging market equities aren't even they're not even up this year so uh really i i think that um the uh places to be in the long term are going to be emerging markets and non-us entities because the dollar my number one conviction i know i've told you this before julia my number one conviction looking forward a number of years i'm not talking about the next few months at all i'm talking about several years is that the dollar is going to go down and because of that i think uh investors i've already rotated into european equities i will rotate very aggressively into emerging market equities i just think it's too early for that right now so the dollar going down is another reason why ultimately we talked about we touched on gold i think ultimately gold is going to go a lot higher but it's it's really in hibernation right now
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