저자: Kevin · 외국인
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고용지표가 예상치(약 24만)를 크게 하회한 17.5만으로 노동시장 약화 신호가 나타나며, 채용 기업 실적(ZipRecruiter, Randstad)도 둔화를 시사한다고 주장. 파월이 이를 반영해 비둘기파적 발언을 했고 금리인하 기대가 1.2회에서 1.9회로 상향됐다고 설명. 노동 약화→임금 하락→디스인플레이션→금리인하 흐름을 예상하며, 금리인하 시 부유층·고급소비·금리민감주(테슬라 등)와 비트코인·위험자산이 수혜를 볼 수 있다고 봄. 중산층 고용·주택차압 위험을 경고하며 현금 비중 확대를 시사.
다듬은 글
the middle class is about to get screwed in this video I'm going to explain how that affects you as an individual and how it could affect real estate and the stock market and it's not going to be what you think it's going to be pretty frustrating and really good for some folks here we go first we just had a jobs report that came in roughly in line with the pre pandemic which seems good but it totally missed expectations we were looking at $240,000 on a survey and we got 175,000 jobs that's not good because it means for some reason the data we're getting is not aligning with what economists are actually looking at suggesting that maybe underneath the surface some worsening Trends are cooking that aren't good and being picked up by economic data in fact for this jobs report there were 76 qualified economic analysts and corporations coming with these estimates only two of them were looking at a number under 175,000 and all of them other than three were above 200 or equal to 200 so in other words how did 73 out of 76 economists over 90% of the economists get it wrong what's possible that there's more of a weakening and it could affect your stocks real estate and importantly your job job look at this earnings call from zip recruiter this earnings call for zip recruiter suggests 2023 demand for recruiting Services dropped throughout the year for all company sizes in this earnings call they actually talk about how it started with small companies it started in the smbs the small to medium-sized businesses but it actually ended up expanding to larger Enterprises as well in fact yesterday we made a video where we talked about how it looked like there were some anecdotes about people over at YouTube music getting laid off because AI was starting to take their jobs we could see more of that but not to be redone it to yesterday it's important to just use that as a reference point and add more data to that which is zip recruiter being concerned that not only are we seeing quits back to prepandemic levels which is somewhat being referred to as dare I say the great staying yeah digest that one for a moment remember remember that back at during covid there was sort of this uh great resignation now folks are actually calling this the great staying or the big stay take a look at this uh the executives over at zip recruiter say the great resignation has turned into the big stay and we see that as something that is working through the system after the tumult of people starting to shelter in place during Co a great reshuffling in terms of the big resignation the great resignation and now sort of digesting that stuff but the problem isn't so much okay the recruiting company is having issues it's where is the labor market going from here out and right now zip recruiter says that the labor market is flattening out but throughout the entire earnings call they say usually what happens is it flattens out and then it declines further they don't actually know if the Q4 Peak that they saw in terms of pain for the labor market is the peak or if we're just flattening out to fall off again and basically get even worse data so when I say Peak I mean the worst bad it's s like the peak of bad data right we don't know if that's flattening out or it's going to get worse but we do know that usually let's say up is bad for them so you Peak out Q3 the entire or Q4 the entire year things get worse so they see out a little a little bit of flattening and then usually when they see a flattening they start seeing data get worse again and again I'm going up here to imply more unemployment the way to think about this so zip recruiters is not happy they're saying look if things get worse we're ready to be nimble and cut more expenses it's not just zip recruiter though it's also other companies like ranot ranot is a company from Amsterdam but you might know that company a lot better by its us sort of name and that's monster.com monster.com is owned by run and in their earnings call they indicate the same thing they suggest that basically the labor market is pretty soft across the entire world Germany is getting hit hard and it's not getting better France is getting hit hard North America is getting hit hard and this all has to do with new hiring that's a leading indicator that suggests problems could be coming for people's jobs so in other words if you're part of the middle to upper middle class and you lose your job it could be really hard to get a replacement job so what then happens and how does this relate to drone pow in the fed and how does it relate to what could happen in real estate and what could happen with foreclosures and what could happen with the stock market let's analyze this first drone pow was weirdly doish on Wednesday why was he so soft we were not expecting that we were expecting more of a neutral Powell but we got a pretty doish Powell well as I tweeted this morning you should follow me on uh Twitter or X at a real meet Kevin now we know why Jerome Powell was doish Wednesday as suspected and he's told us this so it's not a big secret that he knows this data often times beforehand he can kind of call into the Bureau of Labor Statistics and get some tentative Data before it's released to the public and so calls in as suspected drone PW likely had this jobs Data before his fomc speech now we know why he was doish much weaker jobs report than expected with less wage gains not great now we understand why Jerome Powell is picking up on the leading indicators and he's going doish this is not a matter of flip-flopping with the data on the fed or whatever this is a matter of seeing this transition happening at the fed and we're trying to understand why is the Fed biased to want to cut and boy you got to see what just happened with rate cut expectations and again this is going to lead to what happens with real estate and stocks but first I just want to shout out that we did extend this just briefly to today the stocks and psychology of money group and the buy sell trade alerts this morning I threw what I thought was a risky bet on a call option but I played my trading analysis lines almost perfectly I go we could get a breakout on this line I think we're going to go from this line to here it was n phase 113 to 118 I'm throwing 45,000 bucks on this boom 5 X baby 20K on the trade today I post my pnls if you want we are going to officially raise the price this evening so check that out uh but what's very important now is how does drum pow's doish and these worsening leading indicators affect inflation and then the greater Market well remember Jerome Powell doesn't seem convinced that there's going to be a second wave of inflation if you're a second wave of inflation person you're probably probably going to want to be heavily exposed to cash not personalized Financial advice because things are probably going to get a lot worse but I want to show you an example of how companies when they've been used to raising prices for a while they tend to be a little sticky and when they reduce prices and that's because of ego let me show you one of the most egotistical companies I've discovered and I have to say it's it's a scary site it's really scary uh it's really disappointing because I used to have a lot of respect uh and now it's just uh clear to me that uh this is nothing but ego uh and so I'm going to put this picture up on screen I just I just don't want you to be scared by this here it is go sorry wrong one it's right here it's the Starbucks earnings call so this is the Starbucks earnings call Starbucks went all in on building out Starbuck's in China and the thought was that they were able going to be able to bring premium coffee to China and by bringing premium coffee to China they would basically double their market and be able to substantially double their revenues that's what restaurants and and you know food and beverage companies do they build more locations so they can grow so your goal is build build build build build build so you get more and more and more revs so your stock can go up your earnings go up you get more scale as you're buying stuff but I want you to listen to Just this and tell me what you think about the Starbucks ego here as they face problems in China you're ready for for this I'm going to hide myself and read it out to you here we go actually you know what we'll take the laser pointer so let me start with competition in China I think the growth that's taking place in the Mass area of the China uh of the China business of the China overall coffee and tea segment is one where we just see intense price competition hm okay remember what happens after intense price competition first you have too little of a product like think AI okay oh my gosh we have too few AI chips we do not have enough AI chips we need more everybody gets into making AI chips AI chips that should be selling for $7,000 like an h100 sell for $3 to $40,000 or 50 or 60 on the black market or even more then all of a sudden everybody gets into building capacity to manufacturing ships everybody gets into competing products the prices come back down to reality until you turn into like a lithium uh uh you know uh commodity where all of a sudden price is complet completely collapse and actually becomes a lot cheaper to build out the infrastructure okay well that's normal the problem though is when you have an ego and you don't adapt to more Supply like the growth of a luck in coffee or the growth of Labor Supply see where I'm going with this you actually end up missing out on the warning signs that prices and wages are potentially about to collapse I'm just using Starbucks China as an example because these same things I think are going to happen in the United States with wages and inflation in the second half of the year now we have to wait and see are those actually going to happen but this has a very real possibility and based on just the data we're looking at look at this so watch the ego again we're seeing intense price competition so is Starbucks reducing their prices in the face of you know as uh we have special situations here on Twitter or X posting about how cheap coffees are in China from companies like lock and coffee or otherwise lot of competition what's Starbucks's response to this Starbucks's response is we're choosing not to participate in that we are a premium brand we've built a business over 25 years with a great deal of competitive advantages you could see that there we have amazing Partners in stores we have stores that look distinctive we have a tradition of coffee oh my Lord the ego we are traditionalists we're a premium brand we choose not to participate and lowering prices you're going to get screwed and you're going to realize it too late and then you're going to drop prices too late and guess what happens when you drop prices too late you're behind the curve and then you're screwed that same exact thing can happen with jobs in America Jobs go first it happens slowly Jobs go first then earnings roll over Jobs go earnings roll over earnings roll over less people hire the people who got laid off then you have a recession then we potentially go into real estate foreclosures uh on people who financed homes in 2022 thinking it would always be easier to just resign and get another job because the job market is so intense and they've got a 7 and a half% loan and then what happens they're like oh well rates will come down I'll be able to refinance good luck refinancing without a job or a whole lot lower pay so what potentially happens in the market as the job market rolls over which is I think what Jerome Powell's starting to see and we're definitely already seeing at the recruiting firms it's not actually a wage price spiral concern it's potentially actually the opposite it's that wage gains actually go negative because people start being willing to work for less just to get a job so how does that screw the middle class consumer when companies start realizing they're going to be forced to lower prices as Supply chains stabilize eventually we're going to get this Mass disinflation potentially through a recession this is why I'm a little struggling it's kind of like okay like yes we've got some hotter inflation numbers now but that's holding up because the econom is holding up GDP is holding up but again as those prices start rolling over earnings growth rolls over those layoffs increase like we're already starting to see then people don't have jobs then people can't buy then that leads to a self-fulfilling cycle of less hiring then you run into real problems and who is it a problem for or should I say whom is it a problem for what's a problem for the middle class the person who's working maybe they've got they're making somewhere between 50 to a couple hundred th000 a year I know that's a broad range that's why we call it the middle class lower class obviously we want to see you get into the middle class could be an opportunity to get in but it gets harder to get in because you have to have now potential the ability to acquire more skills to level up and be willing to work for Less that could be a way to get in right so let's say somebody else is a computer programmer software engineer and they're like I need $200,000 a year and you graduate and you're in a lower class and you're going bro I'll I'll take a job just for 70 like just get me in right that actually does give you an opportunity to level up but that means those 200k programmers are like crap you know I'm going to have to go down to 100 just to get a job again that means I have less money to spend on stuff not great that's where you could actually see negative growth in pay and that's kind of what we started seeing in the report today a miss not only on the number of people getting employed but also a Miss on how much wages were going up so what then happens to stocks in real estate ah yes stocks in real estate well I hate to say it because it's not what you would expect if the Federal Reserve starts rapidly cutting interest rates there are going to be massive changes in real estate and the stock market as of Wednesday morning the market was only expecting 1.2 rate Cuts this year after this morning's jobs report the market started expecting 1.9 rate Cuts this year rounded up from 1.87 that's problematic because it's an indication that the Market's going oh wait a minute maybe the jobs Market isn't as strong as we think it is maybe we do need to get rate Cuts I understand the market feels bipolar right and I'll tell you kind of where like my head is in all this but I think as we get rate Cuts guess who's going to benefit the wealthiest are going to benefit the people who have the ability to go buy real estate people have cash to go buy real estate people have the ability to go buy the dip the people who have the ability to hold on to their stocks and as rate Cuts come down interest rate sensitive sectors start potentially rebounding and the stuff that wealthy people spend money on like durables like fancy cars premium cars uh new cars for their friends and family solar panels solar whatever houses that's where you start seeing that spending again the people who aren't worried about losing their jobs or even if they didn't have a job they have enough Capital to keep spending and so that's where the rich keep getting richer the people who get screwed are the middle class cuz again the lower class can pop in and take jobs from The Middle CL class at a lower cost and get into the right of being the middle class people get screwed of the lower class Who start now getting replaced with people willing to work for less if they lose their job it's much harder to get another job now they have less Capital to go spend and invest or buy cars or buy real estate or whatever and the dreams of refinancing at lower rates when rates come down poof because your wages just went down now your debt to income ratio is too high anyway this doesn't actually mean that you're going to have a real estate crash it's possible if you have enough foreclosures but you would really need to see enough foreclosures and enough of an inventory move up personally I think we're going to be a little bit more sideways in the near- term but you never know we didn't see the kind of crazy lending that we saw in 2006 in single family seeing some more of that in commercial and multifam uh which creates some really good opportunities in my opinion to buy the dip just have to be careful that the dip doesn't keep on dipping on you but this is in my opinion a real warning to the middle class that I'm personally worried about if I were in a situation where I was working for say you know $120 $200,000 $70,000 a year whatever I'd be thinking to myself okay what do I do if I lose my job well first of all uh I don't want to lose my job so I'm going to try to figure out everything I can to make sure I provide as much value as possible and I would also start getting really satisfied with my current job and being there for the next at least probably 2 years 3 years somewhere in there in that window so like if you were itching to like go to a different company I'd probably really be thinking about okay what can I do here to provide more value for the next two or three years and to make sure that I'm not part of the first layoff cycle or rather the next layoff cycle right so I'd be buckling up going hey um what can I do to provide more value to the business you need any licenses do you need any I don't know need somebody stay in after work or before work or whatever you got to become Irreplaceable now I want this I'm purposfully trying to create that warning now it's not to fearmonger it's to hedge maybe maybe nobody loses their job in your company maybe the economy just keeps booming and everything just goes to all-time Highs but would it not be better to buckle up and hedge provide more value at your job get some more skill sets you're a bookkeeper become a CPA you're a junior software programmer what certifications do you need to become a senior software programmer you're a real estate agent what do you need to become a broker or an mllo see what I mean like your registered nurse what is it going to take to become a doctor I I don't actually think healthcare is going to have as many problems but but it'd be nice for you to have more capital in the event there's a downturn right so what can you do to increase that that income that top line that is so important right now and it's exceptionally important because if the leading indicators with today's jobs report continue on this trend and inflation starts rolling over we're going to see big rate Cuts we'll also see that those massive M price declines will actually potentially roll into disinflation which I know is counter to what we've seen so far in the inflationary Trend at the beginning of this year but it's a possibility and then that's where job Cuts come because now all of a sudden your year-over-year Revenue numbers start going down rather than up like you don't have the Tailwind of inflation actually helping you beat on earnings anymore you're missing on earnings so I made this little chart over at ec.com it's not really a chart it's more like a list but anyway I wrote Kevin sentiment indicator for the last two months mons so I wrote one is Kevin is full bear 10 is Kevin is full bull so then I give some examples 10 covid by the dip Kevin refinances all houses in March of 2020 and Yolo's on Larry cow's v-shaped for the stock market I made a lot of money doing that that was good one which is full bear January of 2022 would have been a full 10 I was making Titanic syncing videos and suggesting bonds facts and stable coins would collapse and Banks honestly watch that video just type into YouTube meet Kevin Titanic market crash you'll literally see me predict bank failures stable coin failures all dressed up in a Titanic video it's it's probably my most epic video two and a half would be early March 2024 this is going cash I'm a bear hot data for January Fab I'm like this isn't good the Federal Reserve is going to pow us this isn't great then we get our and we have earnings coming up which could be bad I go to five on the first week of tech earnings because of confidence and guidance that the consumer so far is still holding up though I'm diversifying right I think it's important to to note uh also though diversifying owning uh owning more stocks SL less concentrated on Singles right so broadening out second week of tech earnings I go to about a six and after JP and about about a 7.5 in terms of bullishness on the stock market so I'm I'm not like full Perma bull here but you can kind of see this transition uh you can go to ec.com and read the whole thing if you want but that's that's kind of how I feel right now where I still I'm still more cash than like a full bull but I also have concerns obviously inflation could run up our next report will be March 15th obviously coupon code expires today finally sorry we had to extend a little bit there were too many emails emails at staff atme kevin.com for questions or bundles uh and then obviously uh you JP was pretty dang doish why was he doish well we start looking at some of these these earnings reports which soon we're going to be getting uh the next earnings report for zip recruiter that'll be really interesting we get that uh in six days you know we're going to have a lot more data that's going to say hey is this job situation about to become a little bit more serious or are we going to be able to keep flying this plane so we'll have to watch for it uh some folks are saying Bitcoin is starting to Snuff it out I I I don't know how particularly true that is is but um you know Bitcoin did roll down to almost $56,000 there for a moment actually bounced off one of our lines it's that 62 today on that better jobs data you know still getting some recovery here but uh that bounce over there that 575 is some people are saying Bitcoin is starting to Snuff out some potential issues in the economy though I actually think that when we get rate Cuts Bitcoin along with a lot of risk assets will actually do quite well uh you just have to be careful because some company earning are really going to collapse probably like your Staples McDonald's Coke you know Costco stuff like that uh but the interest rate sensitives I expect will do quite well you know the Teslas the end phase whatever again because they're like wealthy people money spending companies money recipient company anyway you get the idea anyway that's my warning I wish you the best good luck if you like my perspective on building your wealth check out the courses link down below remember you get access to all the course member live streams going all the way back to like 2017 and all the future course member live streams we do every day the market is open at 5:25 a.m.
uh with rare exceptions the uh you also in the stocks and site course get all my trade alerts byell trade alerts so if you uh wanted to be part of those the last two trades I did I have to say very proud of uh the the trade I just did this morning was a 20K p&l and then the trade before that was $511,000 I turned 100 into uh into a 500K gain so I turned 100 into 600 that was crazy that was really cool uh I could have had that same ratio if I had the same balls this morning but I went with a smaller bed this morning anyway uh yeah so this is um check those courses out linked down below thank you so much for being here and uh we'll see you in the next one stay tuned and buckle up
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