저자: Kevin · 외국인
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미 노동통계국 QCW 개정치는 비농업고용을 과대추정했음을 보여 고용둔화가 더 심각하다는 주장. 연준은 부정적 가이던스를 피하는 중. 딥시크 이후 자본지출 감소가 6~12개월 시차로 나타날 수 있으며 현금비중 저하·고용 리비전을 주시해야 함. 최악 시나리오로 실업률 10~14%의 디플레이션성 경기침체를 제시하며, 채권(장기)이 유리하다고 봄. 현재 시장 낙관은 과열 신호로 해석.
다듬은 글
there's fresh data out on the US economy that might be even worse than what we saw yesterday now in this video I want to be realistic and straight up with you I'm not trying to impute any bias or emotion on this I just want to report the data to you so you can make up your own mind and at the end of the video I'll even go through Warren Buffett's letter which I thought was really cool but honestly it doesn't make sense that all of the headlines they see in the mainstream Media or an X or whatever have to do with people just regurgitating pieces of Warren Buffett's letter and complete ignorance for the data that just came out that's actually significantly more important now yeah are there cool lessons in Buffett's letter of course and we're going to cover them but let's just get right into this now this is a data set that uh was released over the last uh 48 Hours uh it was a data set that was an initial release uh from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on revisions uh quarterly revisions uh the final revision won't be out for another couple months but I want you to see from Moody's uh in Standard Charter what some of the takeaways are are so far and uh I I just want to warn you they're not good uh so look I I want everybody to make money I want everybody build wealth I want everybody to get rich in the stock market I'm all for it uh but we need to probably start paying attention to this because it's getting worse uh this comes after yesterday's PMI data uh if you haven't seen that yet just type into YouTube uh meet Kevin this is very bad that was the the title of yesterday's video we just go into historical videos and see yesterday that was that was already shock that was part of the reason why the markets yesterday sold down we a $2.7 trillion uh set of options expiring yesterday the market lost $1 trillion in value yesterday poof gone like that some people are blaming that uh announcement about a potential discovery of another covid virus in China That's nonsense uh and the bit hack I mean so far everything seems pretty stable they're back to normal operations so honestly their investors help bail them out to cover what they needed in terms of losses from that ethereum hack but KnockOn would but hopefully those two things are contained you could also watch my video on that Co virus this document is an Institutional letter that I marked up discussing the qcw changes now that does not sound logical or anything understandable at all in fact when you start reading it sounds extremely complicated such as it is a capital mistake to theorize before one has the data the just relased Q3 2024 quarterly census of employment and wages points to an increasing overestimate of employment by non-farm payrolls even after recent Benchmark revisions okay none of this sounds like English so let's just make this extremely simple basically when the Bureau of Labor Statistics or as some like to say the U Bureau of uh uh when uh they put together an estimate on a monthly basis of nonfarm payrolls what they're really doing by the first Friday Friday of every month is trying to make an estimate for the entire 30 days before that using a small sample of the United States and what they do is they take this little slice over here and they say okay how many people over here got jobs lost jobs how many businesses were created how many businesses were shuttered uh and this sample right here they then extrapolate to the entire month the problem is they try to do that all with within the first you know s days let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say the Friday lands on the seventh day of the month they tried to do that all within the first seven days best case scenario your first five business days of the very next month this leads to some really crazy over or underestimating and this is why we come back with these quarterly census revisions and we make modifications and we say you know what all right all right let's just get rid of all of this right here uh and it's instead of using any kind of estimates of what's going on why don't we just look at the data and see hey U now that we have payroll data and tax return data and stuff uh you know payroll reports and that why don't we fill in the actual data uh and how does that actual data compare to what we originally estimated well when times are good this works totally fine because things are much more predictable but when there's uncertainty in markets and when things are rapidly changing then it's a lot harder to figure out what's actually going on and how representative a sample is of everything that's going on in the United States so let's try to explain this in English right here uh in English when we look at this actual document we'll see this section right here we see that between September 2023 and September 2024 non-farm payroll originally told us we were generating 164,000 jobs per month but the reality is we actually only created 108,000 jobs so in other words non-farm payroll is telling us that everything is fine this is sort of your usual average expansion level of job gains somewhere between 160 to 180,000 per month the problem is once you start knocking on the door of about 50 to 990,000 call it 50k in this case this is your precursor to a recession and what the qcw levels are telling us is that we are only slightly closer to fine than we are closer to recession however we have level now jome Powell does pay attention to the qcw numbers as well and this is why I think Jerome Powell and the FED have removed their forward guidance they don't want to give us forward guidance because they're actually starting to see that things things are deteriorating on the underlying but here's the problem the FED runs into the FED does not want a recession or a crash or some kind of disaster so if the forward guidance is going to be bad they'd rather just shut up and tell you nothing and just say that everything is fine right now because I guarantee you the day Jerome Powell comes out and says yeah things are bad he's going straight down this is what we saw after January of 2022 when Jerome PA said yeah it's going to be bad and the market sold off for nine straight months towards the end of 2022 this is challenging so when the FED has positive forward guidance to give wow yeah inflation's going to be transitory inflation's going down housing inflation is going to contribute to inflation going down everything's going great according to plan positive forward guidance they'll give it to you all day long as soon as the forward guidance turns negative guess what you no longer get forward guid because it would just self- fulfill the problem so this data is better because it actually says that we are creating substantially fewer jobs take a look at this just released qcw data show much slower job creation than the non-farm payroll have estimated over last year through September this doesn't even account for October November December where we had probably some uh Trump enthusiasm leading to some hiring but you know what's that going to mean when we get revisions for that period of time especially through January February March and April now non far payroll may have overestimated average month-over-month job creation by 50% between October 23 and October 24 markets in the FED may have perceived the labor market to be more robust than it is in reality okay the qcw data point to a far sharper deterioration in employment growth then suggested by non-farm payroll or the move in the unemployment rate which is measured by the household survey part of the non-farm payroll as well at least it suggests the FED decisions and asset market pricing are based on imperfect indicators this may be because of the basically the sampling the birth death ratio for you know how jobs are counted into samples that part is more simply explained by the little drawing that I made there otherwise it gets too complicated so then I thought okay well what are other institutions saying what is uh let's say like a Bank of America or Goldman Sachs saying about jobs and then of course we'll get to the Bor and Buffett portion uh well let's take a look at this letter because this is a letter here from aollo and then I want to get into the B OFA one so apulo letter is somewhat appalling take a look at this the consensus expects that total doze related job cuts to be around 300,000 jobs which given that 5 million people change their jobs every single month that might not be that big of a deal but Studies have shown that for every federal employee there are two contractors as a result it's possible that 300,000 federal job layoffs could actually be closer to 1 million job layoffs any increase in layoffs will push jobless claims higher over the coming weeks and such a rise in the unemployment rate is likely to be a consequence and would then lead to movements potentially in rates equities and credit spreads so if our credit spreads haven't really seen any kind of movements but usually when you see job uncertainty you start seeing Capital expenditures decline now why does that matter well because a lot of our economy right now seems to be based on this sort of Boom enthusiasm and that's fantastic as long as it continues but there are already rumors circulating that following the Deep seek sort of poison pill if you will uh maybe and these are just rumors right now maybe we could be getting to the beginning of a Slowdown in some of the r rid capex expenditures now I'm going to show you this it's a rumor and then I want to show you the Bank of America piece but I think the rumor is worth explaining before I do though I want to make sure that we know something very very clear about sort of my thesis here and I made this very very clear day one on day one of the deep seek announcement I said you're not going to see short-term cuts to capex no company wants to be the company that's implying that they're panicking because of some Chinese product so expect it to take 6 to 12 months to actually see Capital expenditures either slow for servers or chips or get repositioned to something else and what have we noticed over the past few weeks well we've noticed Satya nadela from Microsoft start planting some seeds that hey we don't want to oversupply artificial intelligence huh okay this is interesting why would he say that uh and I'll show you that clip and then we've also seen Mark Zuckerberg all of a sudden get really excited about humanoid robotics sure that could be a way of catching up to Elon Musk but it could also be a sign of yeah we're not we're not uh stepping back on our Capital expenditures we're we're just we're just spending up something else of course interesting listen to that's the wrong button listen to SAA nadela yourself and see what you think ah well you know it would be useful Kevin if you actually set the audio output to something everyone can hear aiming some AGI Milestone that's just nonsensical Benchmark hacking to me the real Benchmark is is the world growing right at 10% the world economy is 100 trillion or something the world grew at 10% that's like extra 10 trillion uh in value produced every single year if that is the case it seems like 80 billion is a lot of money um shouldn't you be doing like 800 billion if you if you really think in a couple of years we could be really growing the world economy at this rate and the key bottleneck would be do you have the compute necessary to deploy these AIS to do all this work the classic supply side is oh let me build it and they'll come I mean that's an argument and you know after all we've done that we've taken enough risk uh to go do it but at some point the supply and demand have to map you know you can go off rails completely when you're like all hyping yourself with all the supply side versus really understanding how to translate that into real value to customers and you're not going to say oh they have to symmetrically meet at any given point in time but you need to have existence proof that you are able to Parlay yesterday's let's call it capital into today's uh demand so that in other words can we actually prove a return on our investments and maybe before we keep blowing money we should make sure that the money we've already spent is actually making us money this is weird and this interview comes you know within four weeks of the deep seek announcement and again I I understand there are a lot of people who say but I just learned about javon's principle or paradx and it says that when something becomes more efficient more people are going to use it yeah listen I agree that more people are going to use AI over time deep research tools which are really just prompting for you over and over and over again they're great and they're going to lead to more use that's fine I I believe that I believe that AI agents will lead to more usage the question is a will they lead to more actual revenue for companies or does this just become the new commoditize standard uh and B if the chips are 100x more efficient but our output is going up by 2x then yes we are 2 Xing how much artificial intelligence we are using but the infrastructure needs that we have are actually 50 times smaller so in other words there is a substantial risk of oversupplying the infrastructure you know that javon's Paradox comes from this idea of uh uh you know oh my gosh well if engines are more efficient then we're going to need less coal okay well if the people who are claiming that javon's principle will lead to this NeverEnding AI chip spending boom then if you want to appli that to the the the good old you know steam engine powered by coal back in the day you could just say all right we have 100,000 tons of coal oh my gosh a more efficient steam engine Chon's Paradox quick instead of needing 100,000 lb of coal we need 1 billion PBS of coal there's still a mismatch between the supply and the demand and that's exactly what Saadia is now planting the seed with which is interesting because it's coming just at the same time as labor revisions are showing us things that people who have been paying attention very closely have already been watching for many months many months now certainly since last July uh these problems have really started to become more evident but also I want you to see this you know yesterday uh Tom Lee was on CNBC doing the usual oh people are full of cash everybody's got all the cash in the world oh all the dips are going to get bought okay I mean I haven't never heard anything else from Tom Le but uh you know I'm still waiting for um the all-time highs and small caps but anyway what do we have here this is Bank of America's flow show which indicates that at Bank of America their customers uh who manage their assets with them only have about 10.9% of their Assets in cash they're actually 63.5% exposed to stocks which is the highest allocation since March of 2022 basically the peak following you know uh December of 2021 but it took four months for people to realize oh crap the Market's actually going down we have now seen the biggest inflow into treasuries in 6 weeks we' have seen the biggest outflow out of tech uh in in what is this biggest 3-we outflow on record ever uh interesting we've also seen that uh investors are still quite bullish but there's a slump in cash as a percentage of assets under management just 3.5% on average this is different from the investors over at uh Bank of America apparently who are about 10% in cash uh but but these numbers don't necessarily agree with what we're seeing some other folks say in fact something else to consider here is what Bank of America calls the bull disruption they think that there is a potential risk of an unanticipated slowdown in growth on housing the Tailwinds of a wealth effect job growth tailing off inflation nagging consumer confidence US Government heading into recession basically the DC recession uh and and basically the things that were supporting spending such as a us uh the US government exploding its discretionary spending by 65% over the last 5 years that going away yes while it may go to less waste also fuels less of the economy so anyway a Slowdown this slowdown is starting to be flagged by outperformance of bond sensitives and defensive stocks interesting Now by itself government spending only works out to somewhere around 7% of GDP but when you consider the multiplier effect of wasteful government spending or just government spending in general you tend to have this large multiplier of like 5x and so people regularly argue that government spending is responsible for somewhere around 35 to 48% of GDP because of the downstream effects and so this is where there's this question of if there's a recession in Washington DC uh you know assuming unchanged Trump taxation uh you know of course Trump wants tax cuts then we're probably going to be in a situation of more uh uh government deficit not less that's because at the same time that yeah you're trying to cut spending you're not going to be cutting able to cut enough before you hit a recessionary catalyst and then you'll be right back to spending uh versus uh if you're trying to cut taxes that's great but how are you going to make that all up in tariffs well you probably won't and we already know that tariffs are economically just not the best idea they're tend to create too much dead weight loss so this is where I actually argue I think there's this potential that Doge stimulus checks uh might actually be closer than we think I know it seems crazy right now when the market's at all-time Highs but what it ends up happening is if you walk into a recession because of some of the data that we're starting to see I think uh there will be uh quite a bit of enthusiasm for government stimulus again but that's my opinion we don't have to focus on that so much right now uh instead uh Bank of America is actually recommending the 30-year Bond right now I actually think that's very interesting as they see a potential flatter yield curve now in a shock we would probably not just see a flatter yield curve we' probably see a substantial drop in the 2-year treasury uh which would also pull down uh the longer term end so you know TLT becomes interesting in the event of a shock we don't know with certainty that we're going to have a shock uh so put putting all these pieces of the puzzle together things are looking a little okay at the very least we should pay attention to these things right uh I mean consider this for a moment job data likely weaker than expected terrible pmis yesterday consumer confidence is starting to slip optimism that we had after uh immediately after and immediately before actually the Trump election has started to wne because we've started to go all right what is all of this actually going to mean what kind of tariffs are we going to get what you know the pull forward that we had for tariff spending has sort of already been been had so now it's like all right where's the new demand hm you know growth forecast slower than expected at companies including Walmart well the Walmart wasn't really that bad and Walmart tried to blame it on their TV manufacturing business that they bought well technically it's a designing business since they themselves Outsource but anyway you you put all that together does create some uncertainty now sometimes uncertainty is a great opportunity to buy the dip in stocks personally I think that if the only uncertainty we face is this uh H5 U I don't know what no it was Hong Kong u5 the hku5 kv2 variant of uh of of this sort of bat if that's the uncertainty leading markets to sell off right now I mean that's probably a nothing Burger I would argue with a 97% certainty it's a nothing burger and you can watch my video on it if you know markets are selling off because of drama over the bybit hack then that that that is also a buy the dip opportunity uh markets have become sophisticated enough to realize that if they don't step in to bail out uh a potential bank run then they end up collapsing like FTX and it leads to substantially larger problems and more more losses now when it comes to uh this employment data well that's what makes me concerned because most people seem convinced that oh well everything's fine the labor market is fine look jobs are still fine but I think people forget that recessions usually are defined in the past in the rear view mirror and it takes away your predictive power and it means you have the highest likelihood of being in a shock now this is the kind of stuff we talk about in our course member live streams regularly this morning we were doing a hymns analysis uh and their exposure to glps do you know how many of their customers are subscribers because of glps do you know how many of their customers are senior citizens the these are important things that we dive into to evaluate okay what's what what could a potential Revenue impact be at hims if they lose their ability to utilize a compounding exemption if you don't know these things I really encourage you join the course member live streams on a daily basis you could two watch them back and I'll even post summary notes on these fundamentals just go to me kevin.com you get trade alerts you get lifetime access uh you get long-term investing Theses Tax Strategies I mean these are really Advanced you know from basic level Finance to advanced level Finance topics that that are really designed to help you get to the next level so check those out out me kevin.com but if you go to the St level St level St Louis fed and go to um unemployment rate it's worth noting how much of a lag there is in in when you actually end up seeing the unemployment rate Spike relative to uh recession uh and so as an example if I pull into the uh uht bubble recession or the uh you know 2008 recession you don't actually hit Peak unemployment until the recession is essentially over now this is quite shocking but if you look the stock market bottomed somewhere around March of 2009 the stock market started tanking around March of 2008 so notice how the stock market actually tanked before the unemployment rise came and the stock market bottomed before the peak of unemployment now the same thing was true over here this stock market uh started falling uh you know in 2001 late 2000 and you didn't actually really see the peak of your unemployment until basically the turn of 2001 to 2002 now that's really interesting it's worth paying attention to as well and you ended up getting your bottom in the stock market in March of 2003 but you didn't hit Peak unemployment until you had this other surge over here in June of 2003 so in other words the market seems to bottom about 3 to 6 months before you hit Peak unemployment but we're at the top right now in the stock market so you you haven't gone through a bottoming process yet if this is a potential future now again is this an argument that says and then we're going to get into the Burk share letter here is this an argument that says oh my gosh sell everything no I mean of course not I'm not your personal financial adviser but I do think it's an argument for being cautious uh how can you be cautious well one of the ways you could be cautious is diversifying your Investments uh private Market opportunities are interesting because they're less exposed to the volatility of the public markets so for example at the moment for accredited and hopefully soon for non- accredited uh our um our investors into house hack receive 5% yield on their investment in addition to 5% which just 5% alone that's not a big deal but in addition to the 5% you get 100% of The Upside in the stock so you know you know if we end up over you know you know the next six seven years or whenever between now and IPO time if we're able to 10x 20x 50x the company I have no idea what it would be hopefully it'd be something great like this you you capture all of that upside uh in between now and conversion you earn 5% that's just an example it's you don't have to invest in my real estate company it's real estate you know it's not for everyone uh but diversifying is one option another option is looking into uh treasury bonds you know those those are another option you capture some yield uh and you could do what Warren Buffett does well Warren Buffett just goes for you know up to one year treasuries six to six to one year I think six months is is his favorite uh another option is pay down debt there are a lot of people with outstanding margin uh in fact we could look finra finra margin outstanding and I would be really nervous about uh some of these levels because we're at all time highs on margin outstanding right now standby let's see here there it is all right here you go margin statistics look at that 937 billion doll of margin outstanding it's the highest at least in the chart that we could see here we can get some historical data too by going through the download of the data but this is substantial so uh this is going to be something to pay attention to I think we may have been beaten by this once at the end of 2021 or so and then margin just absolutely collapsed because so many people got burned you know margin's great when markets are going up but there's a sudden shock oh man you're borrowing money to lose it oh it's it's bad then you have the Panic of the potential for a margin call and it just leads to poor decision- making so reducing Deb is is usually a psychologically smart thing to do uh I know how how burdensome it could be to not want to pay off debt because it's like oh but you know if the stock just bounces back a little bit all right well I I just want to make sure we we talk about this at the top of the market okay anyway so the burshire letter was interesting I'm just going to point out some of the highlights that I found interesting I'm not going to read everything here but I love the argument about Praise by name criticize by category so don't speak poorly about an individual instead criticize the category when you're talking about let's say reviewing a business or whatever uh and then praise people by name I find that very interesting uh then uh he talks about how important it is to realize that managers aren't perfect and more managers should admit that they're wrong and they've made a mistake because then you can actually start solving the problem right what do they always say the first step of solving a problem is is identifying or admitting it uh anyway uh he talk talks about you know don't fool yourself uh into not acknowledging and solving mistakes he goes through some stories that are quite interesting how he talks about how he never looks at where somebody's school is that they went to talks about how 53% of their 189 reporting businesses uh or or businesses that they own or have ownership in reporting a decline in earnings now Burkshire did better in part because of the treasury income they had and then also the insurance business they talked about how there really weren't Mega major storms that of course their claims that they still pay out on asbest which have been going on for 30 years there are short-term claims that they'll have to pay out for storms or fires but some years you'll get multiple Mega storms in a row and he talks about them not having been exposed to these in uh 2024 and helping increase their income in the shortterm but be careful because you know you could have a really good year and then you can have a really bad year with insurance uh he he also says that sometimes businesses will blink yellow and give you a warning sign and you should pay attention to those warning signs so he says that the treasury Department knew that Berkshire Hathaway was going bankrupt the furniture business was going bankrupt because they kept the shell right and used it as the company has now the shell was going bankrupt uh and the treasury Department knew that before anybody else did because he stopped paying taxes to them for at Berkshire haway because they weren't making money anymore he was basically always say saying hey like sometimes a business can look cheap because its income is going down and you have to be careful because that could be for a reason maybe that company is bleeding out then uh it talks up America How Great America is how much money they've paid in taxes takes a slam at other companies that aren't paying a lot of money in taxes because of tech Loop or whatever talks about uh how they don't have a lot of flexibility in the markets mostly because when they make a move it's so large it takes them while to get in and out uh then he talks about foregoing on dividends to reinvest at the company we've heard some of these things before talks about investing the float uh he this was fascinating too he talks about uh that uh when when when CEOs are paid on a level of performance or stock exposure rather than option exposure uh it it's an approach that encourages caution but does not Ensure foresight I don't know if um you know how much of that is true his idea is basically if the stock goes down the owner loses money as well like the the CEO uh I get that uh but what I really liked was the line that you could do something that encourages caution but does not ensure foresight you can't guarantee that you'll see everything that's happening or going to happen in the future thought that was fascinating uh it talks about how they're not going to lower their underwriting qualities talks about his investments in Japan and how great Japan is because Japan's gotten so cheap blah blah blah blah then they actually just kind of go through the investor day of what they're going to do how they're going to talk to Becky quick and and some scheduling stuff so that's really it for the birkshire letter I really think uh some of the other things that we talked about though are much more important and we know that Warren Buffett's cash pile is at alltime record highs we also know that he doesn't try to time the market uh his take is uh just look for good opportunities and he sees a substantial lack of good opportunities right now in markets which is fascinating uh I still see opportunities you know we talk him with talk about him with course members uh but I could see for his scale they're they're going to be fewer because they've got just way too much money to deploy for it to make a difference you know they could only put so much money into a small company before they move the stock themselves right uh anyway with all that I think it's worth uh listening to the rest of what Satya Adella here said and we'll just sort of a little summary here it's a lot of information then you can again can invest maybe exponentially even knowing that you're not going to be completely rate mismatched I wonder if there's a contradiction in these two different viewpoints because look I mean one of the things you've done wonderfully is you make these early bets when there's you you invested in open AI in 2019 even before there was co-pilot and any applications if you look at the Industrial Revolution these um you know 6 10% uh build outs of Railways and whatever things many of those were not like we've got revenue from the tickets and now we're going to a lot of money lost that's true the uh so if you if you really think like there's some potential here to 10x the or 5x the growth rate of the world shouldn't you just like let's go crazy let's do the hundreds of billions of dollars of compute it's not about building compute it's about building compute that can actually help me not only train the next big model but also serve the next big model uh and you understand until you do those two things you're not going to be able to really be in a position to take advantage of even your investment so you have to have a complete thought not just one thing that thinking about all right so that was really the the rest of that just to cover that as well I mean again this idea is very simple it's like let's prove that we can make money first then we can keep spending as long as we can exponentially make money we can exponentially keep spending so put all of these things together and I think when you put them together on a list it it becomes something that you know at least merits some caution uh cash Levels by uh at least institutional surveys are quite low right so let's write these down low cash levels something to pay attention to what's another thing that we want to pay attention to well the lagged deep Fe seep effect right so lagged uh deep seek effect this this mainstream media argument that I think is so interesting is you've had a lot of people say oh well you know the Deep seek effect didn't do anything because capex spending didn't go down look at you know Microsoft Amazon meta whatever okay but they reported earnings 5 days after the Deep seek fact you know 5 days isn't enough to adjust 6 to 12 months and this is what I've said since day one this just be careful it is it is a it's like a cancer that has been planted uh then so watch the capex redirection or slowdown low levels of cash watch these job revisions also a lot of talk right now about growth or lack thereof and remember what happens when growth slows down when growth slows down companies lose their PP nobody likes losing their PP when their pricing power goes down they end up taking it in the margin Okay small PP taking it in the margin are problems and they all lead to eventual uh but not immediate job loss uh Jess job losses there we go whatever so uh just watch all of these things in your investing career be careful I personally think uh there's still opportunities in high quality real estate specifically single family mostly because I have this Vision so we're going to call this section Kevin's Vision uh and and it's it's I'll call it my my bare Vision bare Vision uh my bare thesis is that uh we end up in a uh deflationary uh recession and this is going to be marked by uh marked by 10 to 14% Unemployment uh the problem is this uh will be quite sticky and the reason I say it'll be quite sticky uh is because I actually think the beauty of ai ai will make it harder to rehire uh this will actually make it make it harder to um come out of the recession to escape the recession uh it will take much longer to get out uh you could see flat returns uh in markets for years you many years because you need people to go back to work to get the consumption going again right this is where I think there's the potential you start seeing some more clamoring for Doge stimulus but but I don't think it's going to do much to actually create jobs it might create temporary little boosts in spending like what you saw in China but doesn't sustainably change anything you know in our Co recession when we stimulated we were stimulating what was actually a relatively strong economy uh but Kevin's bear Vision here is a deflationary recession that's really you know it usually how it starts so uh it starts with a market slowdown uh some early indicators of Labor Market stress uh then after that the compounding effects take hold compounding hits uh weaker growth more layoffs this is a cycle right we end up in a deflationary recession so this means prices go down but people have less Capital you know risk assets go down in this risk assets uh down so this usually means that things like gold bonds usually do well in a recession but a deflationary recession um you know may not do as well for gold I I don't know you know because gold has already been propped up on this idea of tariffs and inflation so how much of that gets replaced with um deflationary I don't know but usually golden bonds do well I would guess that if we hit a 10 to 14% unemployment rate we're probably back to 0% interest rates and QE uh AI will make it again harder to rehire which which just leads to more QE right uh more QE it'll make it harder to escape recession and and really probably asset owners will end up doing the best uh like you know people who can leverage their assets for debt uh for cheap debt and so I think uh leverageable assets will become very very valuable uh to me the easiest one is just real estate but then again that's you know that's my world of expertise apparently I can't even spell leverageable maybe because it's not a word put the e in there anyway so whatever uh I I don't want that to happen I mean sure it'd be cool for rates to be back to 0% again but this would be terrible you know the economy will be in a poopy duper for a while so I don't love this be Vision uh but uh just the data that we've gotten over the last two days has has increased the likelihood of this to me so you know 3 days ago call you know put me at 4.8 on the bare bull scale you know 100% so like a score of one would be sell everything uh scale of 10 is margin everything all in baby I was probably about a 4.8 3 days ago I've been kind of more in the middle the last couple months just sort of like wait to see the data we got all the last two days the last two days of data probably put me closer to like a 2.4 so I don't know make uh make with that what You' like uh but you know I don't have any options on the market uh uh in terms of like uh shorts on the market or whatever right now I've got exposure to bonds uh just to be transparent uh via options and and actual Holdings but that's mostly because I think bonds are are great I think they are probably going to be one of the best performing Assets in 25 but we'll see so I know bonds are kind of boring though they're they're not fun so that's my take thanks for watching
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