저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
중앙은행의 완화로 인플레 압력이 지속되고 미국 재정적자·이자부담이 누적되어 결국 금융위기나 화폐 증발 사이클이 올 수 있다고 주장. 부유층은 안전자산을 찾고 있으며 금은 상대적 안전자산으로 제시됨. 미국 채권시장은 금리인하를 인플레 신호로 보고 장기채를 매도 중이라고 언급. 금 가격은 사상 최고치 근접(약 2,700달러)으로 설명됨.
다듬은 글
if the US freezes the assets of even Afghanistan what has Afghanistan done to the US is that one of the poorest countries in the world and the US freezes their assets they freeze the assets of Russia then India and China and Indonesia and all these countries they say to them do we really want to hold all our Assets in the United States and they come to the conclusion no we want to have something safe so they buy gold and they can also see the money printing that is going on in the US they can also see the debt grows and the interest payments grow of the US government and so they don't trust the US dollar anymore according to a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Americans expressed heightened expectations for long-term inflation in September coinciding with Rising concerns over credit instability while inflation is anticipated to remain stable at 3% over the next year expectations for 3 years have Ren from 2.5% to 2.7% and for 5 Years From 2.8% to 2.99% prominent Swiss investor and economic commentator Mark Faber underscores That central banks worldwide are easing monetary policy indicating they have not tightened enough to trigger a recession or substantially reduce inflation this continued inflationary pressure has prompted many investors to acknowledge the looming economic challenges in line with this the European Central Bank recently cut its key interest rate to 3.25% marking its third quarter percentage Point reduction this year Market participants had already anticipated this move after the ECB highlighted diminished inflation risks and a slowing growth Outlook meanwhile Goldman Sachs forecast that the US Federal Reserve will Implement consecutive 25 basis point interest rate cuts from November 2024 through June 2025 bringing the terminal rate range down to 3.25% to 3.5% Faber notes that wealthier individuals increasingly seek safer assets recognizing the potential for economic instability at any moment although no investment is entirely without risk gold has emerged as a relative Haven while governments can more easily seize real estate or impose higher taxes taking gold is more technically challenging throughout 2024 gold has solidified its status as a premier asset consistently reaching all-time high since December of the previous year currently approaching $2,700 it threatens to surpass the existing record of $2,696 set earlier in October affirming its position as a superior investment for many it's very clear that the central banks around the world are again easing in other words they haven't tightened all that much because had the money become very tight would be in a recession and we would have a very low inflation or negative rates of uh price increases but this is not the case inflationary pressures are still there and I think that investors are realizing there are huge problems uh in the sense that say we have in America two presidential candidates one is plainly dumb and the other one is also like the first one a big spender they have no intention to cut the deficits at all to cut the debt at all they both will add with different programs to the credit growth of government in the United States and the US is not alone other countries do the same and so we will move one day into some sort of a financial crisis whether it happens tomorrow or in three years who knows because you can postpone with sprinting money for a long time but I think more and more especially wey people realize they want to have something of their Assets in a in an asset that is relatively safe I'm not saying it's 100% safe because if governments could lock you in under the pretext of covid uh they can also take your assets away and the first one to take away would be say real estate because that's obvious to anyone and it can be done in a very elegant way in the sense that you just increase taxation on real estate until most people can't afford to live in their own homes anymore so I think that gold is kind of a safe haven but it's Technic may be more difficult and uh as you know different countries have different property rights say in Switzerland and in Singapore property rights are very strong so to take it away from you in these countries would be quite something also in Thailand I have to assume that say the King has some call so he's not very likely to want to take it from other people all I'm saying is some countries are more likely uh to protect uh the ownership of assets of its individuals and other countries are less likely to do it and say in the United States Mr Trump is more likely to protect property rights than uh the Communist that might be elected according to the treasury Department's report on Friday the US budget deficit has surged to $1.83 3 trillion for fiscal year 2024 marking the highest level outside of the covid-19 pandemic era notably interest payments on federal debt have surpassed $1 trillion for the first time with increased expenditures directed toward the social security retirement program health care and military spending this year's deficit reflects an 8% increase or $138 billion from the $169524 making it the third largest Federal deficit in US history only the pandemic driven deficits of $3.1 32 trillion in fiscal 2020 and $ 2.77 trillion in fiscal 2021 exceed it the fiscal 2024 budget Gap accounts for 6.4% of the gross domestic product up from 6.2% in the previous year this significant deficit could complicate vice president Kamala Harris's argument in the leadup to the November 5th presidential election that she would be a more responsible fiscal Steward than her Republican opponent Donald Trump Mark Faber highlights the implications of rising in government debt noting that interest payments increasingly consume a growing share of tax revenue this trend restricts funding for essential services such as social programs and infrastructure improvements ultimately stifling economic growth moreover as the government is pressured to print money to meet its interest obligations it risks entering a detrimental cycle of rising inflation and interest rates further exacerbating the overall debt situation I I'd like to say this I mean the economies today they are paid by Wall Street and Wall Street is in essentially in Alliance with the Federal Reserve and so forth I don't think they want to present the truth the fact is simply uh there's a point at which the government debt requires increasing interest payments in that sense one wheel has come off because over the last 18 months the interest payments on the government debt have more than doubled than now at over a trillion dollars a year and it doesn't look as if interest rates will drop a lot unless we are in a recession but at the present time since the rate Cuts occurred the US Treasury Market long-term bonds have been actually selling off they haven't been rallying so the bonds Market doesn't like these rate Cuts because the bond market knows that these rate cuts are inflationary and the old economies the classical economies including by the way uh an American Economist Irving Fisher wrote about the debt deflation Theory the problem is as Government debts become bigger and bigger an increasing portion of the tax revenue news in other words you and I we pay tax the government gets these uh these tax monies that we pay these are the government's receipts and they have to pay the interest on the debt first so the interest payments on the debt actually other programs of the government that might be say more desirable say helping the poor in America right or you know doing something about the infrastructure which is not particularly good in the United States so over time the debt payments become burdensome and hinder or make it make economic growth totally impossible so then there comes the day when uh the government has is actually forced to print money to pay the interest on the debt and that is in the process of accelerating inflation a pillar that will make it clear and sure that the inflationary pressures actually accelerate and when the inflationary pressures accelerate the interest will go up and the debt payments will increase even more Dr fa are you talking uh Ben banki helicopter helicopter Ben banki printing levels here yes I mean my sense is uh if I look actually I'm just writing about this about the 1970s and uh the 1982 crisis and now I'm addressing the the crisis of 1929 my sense is that the US is and other Western European countries they are so far along in the process of uh fiscal deficits that there is no way out but to print money there are ways out but as a politician if you go to your uh citizen Citizenship then you tell them look we have to tighten our belts what it means is you have to pay higher taxes and you the policemen and the firemen and everybody you get lower pension the current economic landscape presents significant challenges particularly with the soaring budget deficit and Rising inflation expectations as the government grapples with increasing debt and the pressure to meet interest obligations the potential for a cycle of inflation and interest rate hikes looms given these developments how do you foresee the impact on investment strategies and asset allocation
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