저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
요약 보기
스페이스X가 IPO 밸류에이션을 2조달러에서 1.8조달러로 하향 검토 중이라는 뉴스를 다룸. 2026년 1분기 매출 약 4.6~4.7조원급(원문 달러 기준 약 46~47억달러 추정) 대비 약 50억달러 적자, 이 적자 구조가 높은 밸류에이션 부담이라고 주장. 반면 델(Dell)은 AI 서버 랙 저마진 사업으로도 실적을 내 주가가 급등했다고 비교. SOXL은 4월 이후 약 4배 상승했으나 추격매수는 비추천하며 다른 섹터가 더 낫다고 언급. 화자는 자신의 벤처펀드가 스페이스X에 투자해 있어 밸류 하락이 개인적으로 불리하다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Well, well, well, well, it looks like SpaceX might actually be reducing their valuation before they go on their road show. Now, this is all still subject to change as most things are in the stock market and in finance. But, what I'm going to do is I'm going to break down what news was just announced, then I'm going to give you a summary.
I'm going to look at the financials with you of SpaceX and look at some of the red flags with you and remind you of some of those in case you haven't been caught up with those yet. And I'm going to show you why Dell is skyrocketing. I'll probably make a separate video on Dell, but I'll give you a little a sample on Dell and it's really remarkable because it'll show you the money difference between Dell and SpaceX.
So, without further ado, I'm Meet Kevin. Welcome aboard. We do have that extended deal in quotes literally because it's the deal coupon code for the Meet Kevin membership expiring, but more on that later. That does expire later tonight. We'll be raising the price. We did a very brief extension on that because of the Iran deal.
Let's focus on this. SpaceX lowers IPO valuation target to $1.8 trillion. This comes after the SpaceX targets more than $2 trillion valuation in IPO as right about where we had our ceasefire with Iran. And if you remember, not only on the channel, obviously in the Meet Kevin membership, that's when the hardware rally really started.
In fact, that's when we made a call on SOXL and suggested that hey, SOXL, you know, there's some real upside here because we're probably about to go into a hardware rally between now and the SpaceX IPO potentially even through some of the other IPOs. We called for a hardware rally. And we called that right around the beginning of April.
Look Look hardware has done since then. SOXL, the 3X hardware ETF, has gone from $52 all the way up to $224. That is a 325% increase. Now, I wouldn't chase this at this point. I'm not saying it's time to short hardware. I'm not saying it's time to go short, but I think other sectors are better opportunities right now.
Now, with that said, during that same time frame that hardware on the 3X leverage ETF here has gone up 4X through this incredible euphoria that we've had in in frankly not just the hardware market, but also index level, right? 70, 80% of the index level has really been driven up from about April 2nd, where SpaceX wanted that $2 trillion valuation.
Nasdaq 100 up 25%. That's like two really good years in a row of returns in the last 8 weeks. And in that same time frame, we have now seen SpaceX's target valuation go from $2 trillion down to $1.8 trillion. Now, what happened between this moment where SpaceX was considering going public for basically more than what Tesla is worth, more than what Meta is worth, and would be larger than all but five companies in the in the S&P 500.
So, it'd be like the you know, sixth largest in the S&P 500 was changed? Well, what was changed is not only do we hear now that they're targeting 1.8, and their roadshow hasn't occurred yet, so this could still change, but their financials came out. And their financials left a lot to be desired. Now, before we go into the financials, I just want to be really clear.
These numbers can change. I highly anticipate Elon Musk is just going to say, "This is fake news, fake story, whatever." Who cares? What it's a sign of is that there is a limit to what those retail investors or even institutional investors are willing to pay with the financials that Elon has put together.
That is a sign that there is a limit. Now, that limit doesn't tend to exist on cheaper companies because the belief is that smaller companies still have room to run. For example, AMD was not that long ago a $400 million company and before that it was even lower than that. Right now, when we look at a company like AMD, which we also called as for a run beginning of April in the Meet Kevin membership, what has happened?
We've gone from the 232 line all the way up to now $518, which is pretty dang remarkable because we happen to have a line right here. It's a fib extension line at 520. Now, with that said, Dell is obviously going to be a really interesting one to reference because Dell is a $200 billion company. I want to make sure I said billion for AMD in case I accidentally said million.
And another one that's been performing similarly to Dell is Marvell Technologies, which is also about a $180 billion company. But this is not to distract from SpaceX because Dell is now up 37% in the after hours on absolutely smashing earnings. I mean, they're literally going to go up about $60 billion here if they hold as the market opens up tomorrow.
Now, why is that? Why did that happen? Well, let's just take a quick glance at the financials and how it compares to what's going on at SpaceX. So, here you go. This right here is the SpaceX segmented revenues section. And what I want you to know is if we go over here to their actual revenues in total and their income, we can see that the company has lost 4.9 billion dollars in the first 3 months of 2026.
Their total revenue is about 4.6 billion dollars. So, they brought in about 4.6, 4.7 billion dollars. They lost about 5 billion dollars. Now, we're going to look at the segments in just a moment, but I wrote a few notes here to compare it to Dell. So, just remember, they brought in about 4.7. They lost about just over four, or lost about five.
Okay, I wrote some notes down here. Just to compare, I wrote Dell sells SH19 racks. They used to sell these racks at really bad margins. But, Dell stuck with it. They kept selling their SH19 racks with AI products on it. And even though they have pretty crap margins, they keep selling AI racks. And the company from selling AI racks has literally made 3 billion dollars in operating revenue in just the last 3 months.
To the bottom line of this company, this company brings also about 3.3 billion dollars on 43 billion dollars of revenue. So, the way to think about this simply is that this company sells stuff. AI racks basically at a really low margin. Dell, 7.9%, right? But, they have a net income, so they bring home to mommy.
Mommy, look at all the money I made. They bring home about 3.3 billion bucks. So, 43.8 billion coming in and they pocket 3.3. That company in the post market is now worth $200 million. Now, you have SpaceX who brings in 4. What was it? Like 4.7 or something like that? You can see where we're going with this.
It was about 4.7, but let's get the exact number here for us. It was Yeah, 4.7. All right. 4.7 comes in. They keep Oh, negative 5 billion. Okay, got it. We're losing money. And they want 2 thousand billion dollars. Cuz that's 2 trillion dollars, put another way. This company is up 37% selling AI racks at a 7.8% net margin.
Bottom line is a really bad margin, but they actually make money and they're a pretty dang small company. SpaceX doesn't. But there's hope and there's the Elon factor. But the point is there's a limit to how much people are willing to pay for that Elon premium, okay? I'm obviously not here trying to say that SpaceX is somehow comparable to a rack-selling company.
I'm sorry. I'm not trying to talk down on Dell. I'll make a separate video on Dell. Here, there's all There's more to this. Uh well, actually not really. I mean, like frankly, if you actually look at the segment revenue of Dell, again, we should really make this in a second video, but the whole reason people are going nuts here is that AI-optimized servers have eight X increased.
And even though they've eight X increased their sales of those racks, they've only about three X'd their net income, which is still really good. Don't get me wrong, but it shows you that you know, that leaves something to be desired. The margin through isn't that great. That's why I call them SH9T Rax.
They're low margin, but they're doing so many of them that they're actually making really good money. But, the whole point of that is $2 trillion is a dang big ask for company that's got some of this stuff. You ready for this? All right. First of all, you should see uh the uh how should I put it? The control that Elon has.
Elon is creating a dual class share with no sunset. They're going to have various different lock-ups for the first 180 days. Elon Musk has the most voting power. There's no independent compensation committee. There's a jury waiver clause. There's a class action ban. There's mandatory arbitration. We don't even know if a lot of those things are going to hold up.
The Terafab joint venture with Tesla is being basically downplayed as in its very, very early stages. 1/5 of this company's revenues come from federal agencies, and and there are some people circulating some commentary that, you know, if Democrats end up winning the presidency in 2029, some of those could be at risk.
And guess who just got the moon landing contract with NASA? Blue Origin. Yeah. I mean, I kid you not. Like, those are things that have happened, and I'm not trying to dump on SpaceX here. I'm just trying to explain like could some of this be true? Mhm. Yeah. Some of this could be true. That there is a limit people are willing to pay.
There There are cheaper companies out there. Here you go. NASA provides uh update on moon-based rovers, landers, and missions. And if I just type in Blue Origin here, target launch no earlier than the fall of 2026. The mission will use Blue Origin landers. Very interesting. Uh so, you know, obviously that's something that uh people wonder why it wasn't SpaceX.
I don't know. Uh but anyway, going back to the SpaceX uh financials over here, we have assets of about $23.6 billion in cash, I should say cash and marketables. But we also have $17.2 billion in current debts. We also have 30-ish billion dollars in long-term debt. Some of that uh has to do with sale and leasebacks with XAI.
So, you have a lot of related party risk over here. But a lot of that is is really built into a bridge loan, which they have that bridge loan information right here. $20 billion bridge loan that expires September 2027. So, they kind of really need that IPO to raise their $75 billion. So, they can pay back this crazy term loan that they have that has this giant balloon payment.
So, you kind of have to IPO. Uh anyway, going back to some of their financials, if you look at the segments here, which I think is a more interesting section to look at, a lot of people really like SpaceX for their rocket launch business. But if you really look closely at this, uh their rocket launch business doesn't actually do a lot of their revenue.
Their launch services do about $619 million. Their uh connectivity business does about $3.2 billion. So, this is the SpaceX Starlink internet that we're all familiar with. So, you know, they're like Starlink makes as much money gross as Dell has an operating income selling low-margin racks at 1/10 the price for the company, right?
And then of course you've got some AI revenue over here, which in fairness they just struck a deal with Anthropic, which is great. But it just offsets a lot of that expense that has been going on at XAI for Colossus 1 and 2 and further. In fact, if you go to the restructuring section, they've had nearly half a billion dollars in termination expenses in both 2025 and 2024.
So, you've got a lot of money flying out the door. And so, it's not a surprise that people are finally saying, "You know what? Maybe maybe $2 trillion is too much." Now, I will personally reveal something to you about this, which some of you already know, but I'm going to do that right after I mention, remember to go to meetkevin.com, use coupon code deal, and we are going to raise the price tonight.
11:59 p.m. probably. Uh all nine courses, you get h all the courses on negotiation, sales, pay raises, liabilities, insurance, entities, real estate, uh the daily uh course member live streams where we do short-term trading, longer-term trading, medium-term trading, all those insights that you get packaged into the alpha report, the uh stocks to buy for the next 10 years, the medium-term trades I like, the short-term trades I like, all of it.
You get it all in one lifetime package over at meetkevin.com. Okay. Personally, when I hear this, I am sad, okay? I am sad. I have a venture capital fund, and this venture capital fund is the first time I've ever done a venture capital fund, and I wanted to really crush it. We have a grand total of two investments.
We invested into SpaceX at like $300 billion. So, I really want my bag. Well, for all the investors, right? We we really want to uh you know, have have a great win here. So, I want this puppy to pump. I just have this problem where like I don't go on YouTube and try to pump my own stuff. I'm just blunt.
Uh I just want to be honest with you. I going to give it to you straight. I would benefit from $2 trillion more more than $1.8 trillion. And And if the trajectory is going down, then that makes me sad because I really want to brag about a 6X or a 5X. I guess I'd settle for a 4 or 3X if it just keeps going down.
So, on a personal basis from our venture capital fund point of view, I want this to crash it, okay? Really badly. Our second investment is also doing really well. That's probably also a four or five bagger, which is great. But, all that depends on how much dilution there's going to be. I won't know until I actually get the shares in my hands, right?
Until then and until there are actual liquidity events, we have no idea how much we've actually earned. That's always the crazy thing because how these people set up these IPOs, what shares they issue, we have no idea what these companies are going ultimately do, right? The other play was a robotics play.
So, we have the space play and then we have the robotics play. I wanted to invest in some nuclear plays, but I couldn't find one that I was really convinced with. Oh, well. So, $1.8 trillion and the fact that this is going down now, this could change. Elon's again probably going to just call this fake news and they do have their road show that starts on June 4th.
Their road show is set to occur between June 4th and June 11th. And they expect to IPO June 12th. So, that means we would quote-unquote price the stock usually the night before, which would be June 11th. So, we shall see. As they write here, deliberations are ongoing and the company could decide to increase its valuation depending on investor feedback during the road show.
The road show is when they go market. Hey, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citi, JP Morgan, y'all y'all want an allocation, right? They get an allocation. They'll get an allocation for whatever they decide. 1.5, 1.8, $2 trillion, whatever it is. Then they call up their big clients, their biggest clients and go, "Hey, I got you a SpaceX allocation.
You You want some shares? You want some shares before we IPO it?" And the whole goal is for these companies to sell those shares so they can get their commissions. They don't give a flying F if the stock goes straight down afterwards or it goes straight up afterwards. It doesn't matter. They want their commission.
Their whole job is to sell. After all, what are securities? You should know the answer to this sticking around. You should know the answer to this subscribing to this channel. You should know the answer to this. No, securities are not stocks. Securities are only sold, not bought. Just let that one sink in for a little bit.
Ask AI if you need a little bit on that humor. But that's the reality of it and hence why there are commissions. Anyway, if you like these sort of insights, join us over at meetkevin.com. You can also bundle up and join us at reinvest.co. That is our real estate AI and it comes with a massive wedge estimate and the fair market value estimates.
Those portions are coming out at the end of June. We're looking like we're going to be on time. We are really excited and the price is going to rocket uh once we release that because then it gets really functional and you can find deals all across the nation for real estate, .
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