저자: Kevin—소속자막제목기준미상이나설명란확인불가,영상내자칭househack운영 · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프가 Fed 의장으로 릭 리더(Rick Rieder, 블랙록 출신, 전 리먼 브러더스)를 지명할 가능성이 높으며, 그는 금리를 낮추고 유동성을 늘려 주식시장을 부풀릴 것이라는 주장. 그러나 수익률곡선통제(YCC)는 과거 호주·일본·미국에서 실패했고 결국 붕괴를 부른다고 경고. 사모신용 시장의 부실과 401k 사모자산 노출 확대를 버블 신호로 지적. 발표자는 단기 상승 후 큰 하락을 예상하며, 현금 확보 후 저가 매수를 권고하는 한편 자신의 부동산 플랫폼 펀딩을 홍보.
다듬은 글
I think you got room to get that funds rate down 100 basis points. Moving 25 basis points in the overnight funding rate. It's not that exciting. There are so many innovative things when we finance resi commercial real estate uh asset backs. You think about capstack. You think about what a Fed could do.
Well, folks, JP Morgan might end up being right. And I can't believe I'm saying that cuz I hate their guts. But holy smokes, Donald Trump may have just figured out the best way to run this economy hot. And I mean hot tamalei kind of hot because if he picks this guy Ricky who's got 21 years of experience bubbling up Lehman Brothers.
Yes that's literally the firm that collapsed in 2008 and led to the collapse of the entire Ponzi the financial economy at that time while at Lehman. No he wasn't working in some lowlevel internship either. He was literally the vice chairman of US Treasury Borrowing, the advisory council they had. That was his job at Lehman Brothers.
On top of that, he was a member of the Fed's investment advisory committee on financial markets and helped essentially collapse the global economy. And folks, Donald Trump is likely now as a frontr runner to pick Rick. In fact, if you look at poly market, Rick is now the leading contender for Fed chair.
Now, I made a video bagging on Kevin Worsh pretty heavily. I heavily described why I think Kevin Worsh is a horrible choice. You could look that up on YouTube. Meet Kevin. Hey, why not Kevin Walsh for Fed Chair or the disaster of Kevin Worsh for Fedare? You'll see all about it. My pick has always been Waller, but Waller is kind of a technocrat.
He's a safe, dovish vote on the board. Why get rid of Waller on the board and put him into Fed chair when you could potentially shove somebody else in who's going to pump markets? And boys and girls, that might be the lesson of this because I think Donald Trump has a trick up his sleeve tomorrow. Donald Trump, I think, might steal the show.
Now, whether or not we're right on timing, it's going to be one hell of a birthday. And yes, tomorrow is my birthday. I will be 34 and I'll be celebrating by watching the Jerome Powell press conference with you and then going through Tesla earnings and then I'll go on vacation. But tomorrow we'll also have an expiring coupon code which will come right after this.
Now, this is just a guess. I could be wrong on this, but I could see Donald Trump stealing the show tomorrow. I think the Federal Reserve is going to announce a pause tomorrow and so does 95% of the bond market. This isn't a surprise. Pal's gonna stay paused and it'll likely do something like, "Yeah, hey, economy is fine.
You know, everything's good. Uh, the labor market is stable. There are some signs that it's starting to grow and we're in a great place to wait and see." Okay. Donald Trump doesn't want to hear that. Donald Trump wants to see rates come down. So, what do I think Donald Trump is going to do tomorrow?
I think Donald Trump tomorrow will steal the show and announce Rick for Fed chair. The former Lehman Brothers guy who is currently the chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, managing a small $2.4 trillion in assets. Now, you might think, oh, I mean that sounds pretty credible.
I mean, he certainly manages a lot of money. There just some problems with his plan, and that's what we're going to talk about. So something to know about his history. Uh this will be the first Fed chair from a major asset manager especially Black Rockck. Now Black Rockck is really interesting because back in 2020 when the Fed went to go buy a bunch of bonds to stimulate the market, they bought around 50% of Black Rockck stuff.
So with the money they printed, they bought bought Black Rockck stuff. And now you're literally taking one of the Lehman Brothers homeboy turned Black Rockck homeboys and putting him into the chair seat at the Fed. This will be really interesting. This is how to run it hot for sure. But we haven't even talked about the fun stuff yet like yield curve control, private credit, or 401ks because this guy could be the solution to everything.
So far, Donald Trump has called this guy impressive. This guy actually backed Haley over Trump in the 2024 primary, though eventually ended up becoming a, you know, team Trumper. So interesting. All right, we got a Wall Street goon over here. Fantastic. So Kevin, what are you complaining about? What's your problem with yield curve control?
All right, YCC sounds like a fancy thing. I'm just going to lay it on you straight. They print more money. It's been tried before, and every time you dink with the market, you end up causing a bigger fup down the road. This isn't central banking at this point. It's just straight up central planning.
This is why I kind of think, you know, we're starting to look a little bit more like China where, you know, the Oval Office runs the decisions of the country. Uh, you get money, you get a promotion, you get fired, your product fails, you're not allowed to say Epstein on Tik Tok. We're taking over that social media.
We'll take over that social media. We'll demonetize you. Oh, sorry. I thought we were getting into a political video here. I gotta save that for my ICE video. Sorry. Anyway, where were we? So, the history of yield curve control is bad. Okay. Uh the Bank of Australia tried this. They lost all control of their yield target.
Basically, the way it works and they they run the money printer. Okay. So, then they go buy the 10 and 20 and 30-year bonds to lower rates. So they try to drive rates down to boost the housing market, to boost household wealth, and let people get more affordable homes because yields are down. That's what Trump wants.
It literally aligns with what Trump wants cuz Trump is like, I don't want housing prices to go down, but you know, I I I would actually like lower rates, which fine. Like listen, to be fully transparent with you, it'd be freaking great for my startup. you know, we do fixeruppers, so we're in my opinion 100% exempt from any of this, oh, you know, companies can't buy real estate thing because we actually provide a real service.
We're not the company type that Trump is trying to target. This is why people keep investing more into our fund raise and why I'm throwing another million dollars into it just to show like this this is good for us. You know, Donald Trump picks Rick tomorrow, if it's tomorrow or the next day or whatever, rates are probably coming down.
the stock market is probably going straight up. We're just building up the Ponzi even more because that's exactly what's happened every single time yield curve control has been tried in the past. It works up front because they start running the money printer. They buy bonds, they get those yields down.
Great. Okay. There's just a problem with this. Now, shoot. I did I did mention investing in house hack. I should really quickly just clarify. Read the offering solicitation. This video is not a solicitation. Yes, you can still get 5% yield. We're officially officially officially closing the round February 6th.
We did have a little two-week extensionish. It was like a 17-day extension just to help process everybody. And yes, I'm putting a million dollars of my own personal money, new money into house hack. Okay, so now Australia, Australia tried yield curve control. They tried it during COVID. They tried it after COVID.
They lost control of the yield curve. And as soon as you stop printing money, everybody basically makes a bet against you. And now all of a sudden bond yields skyrocket up even more. The best analogy I could think of is think about a rubber band. Okay, you're kind of like this is where yields are. We're going to we're going to run it hot, baby.
Oh yeah, how low can we go? How low can we go? And eventually it's going to snap. And when it snaps, not only is it going to hurt your finger on the way up, but it's going to implode the whole economy and the global economy with it. And literally the textbooks are writing themselves. The guy who imploded Lehman Brothers is now going to run the Come on, man.
I mean, like, look, short term is fantastic. We We're going up, boys and girls. We're going up. But damn, the down is going to suck. That's crazy. Uh, the United States actually tried yield curve control. We uh basically delayed disaster a little bit by trying to fight inflation and capping long-term bonds uh after World War II uh until all of a sudden inflation expectations became completely unanchored and in 1951 we had an explosion of inflation and we ended up having a Treasury Fed accord to end the policy of yield control in the past.
Japan has tried it. Every time it's been tried, it has failed. So why does he want it? Well, because he's trying to run the economy hot. But it's not just running the economy hot. For Rick, it does something else. See, for Rick, it also takes a lot of pressure off of ooh, private credit. Now, your boy Kevin just did a deep dive on how the private credit problems are still getting worse.
Watch my full private credit video. We just had Apollo collapse on $170 billion deal. Now, just as I'm prepping the putting this video together, I saw another alert of a big bankruptcy going on, but these are pretty quiet. You know, most people are turning a blind eye to this because the stock market's going up.
People aren't really paying attention to the risk in private credit, and that's all fine until it's not. So, Rick wants to come in with his let's inject as much money as we possibly can, run the deficit up even more, artificially generate more cheap borrowing. What does that do? It lowers the cost of credit for all of those payment in kind deals that are going on in the private credit market because these bastards took on too much debt and they don't actually have functional businesses.
They're zombie businesses and they can't pay their bills. So, how do you keep them alive longer? You give them a little bit more sugar. A little bit more sugar. In the meantime, isn't this interesting? Listen to this right here. Rick actually ended up meeting with Donald Trump conveniently around the same exact time that Donald Trump issued an executive order to direct the Department of Labor and the Security and Exchange Commission to ease restrictions on private credit in 401k plans.
These rules were issued just 2 days before Rick showed up at the Oval Office with Trump. And that's probably because they've been briefing each other before the show meeting. That's my take. I'm being a little jaded there. But what a surprise. Black Rockck first half of 2026 launching target dated funds with 5 to 20% private credit exposure.
Why? Well, it's because Larry Frink has this whole new idea that maybe there's a great new way we can profit. And here it is. This is Larry Frink, Black Rockck CEO, new way of profiting. Oh, what do we have? $12.5 trillion of money in 401ks. You know what? Let's rebrand the 60/40 portfolio, which is 60% stocks, 40% bonds.
How about we do 50% stocks, 30% bonds, cuz bonds have been sucking. Trump is heavily to blame for that with his inflationary and geopolitical problems. But that's okay, you know, whatever. We're just talking matter of fact. Like, this is a Trump problem. Uh, and a lot of it is is accelerated by Trump.
That's not trying to be political. It's just a fact. Uh but anyway, uh and now 20% private assets like private credit. So private funds. Now look, don't get me wrong. I'm not opposed to investing in private companies. I have a venture capital company. We invested in electronic. We invested in Starlink.
Each of those are probably three to 5x. I don't know exactly. Depends how like the dilution and everything goes once they actually like IPO those puppies in the future. So I don't know. Don't quote me on that. Right. But we've done really well. Like two for two, we've done really well so far. Knock on wood that they keep going.
You know, who knows? They could go bankrupt tomorrow. Uh but that's great. So, don't get me wrong, I'm not an anti-private credit person. But when we're starting to at the same time as we're having a private credit bubble say, "Hey, let's have Americans start bailing out private credit." It kind of makes me think that this administration will stop at nothing to make sure that this kind of Ponzi keeps going up to and including Rick using creative means to actually get the Federal Reserve to literally backs stop private credit directly.
So imagine this. Private credit goes from an arcane part of the industry where people are like, "Let it fail." to now it's in everybody's retirement account to, "Oh no, what happened? All these companies are going bust. Oh, don't worry. We got Rick at the Fed. He'll bail it out." Wow, what a surprise.
Black Rockck originates all the garbage and these illlquid loans. They keep the Ponzi going with payment and kinds. Now, we're going to start taking liquidity and fees from 401k holders. Maybe we'll get repaid from the people who are borrowing uh you know, these these businesses that are upside down.
And if we don't, no problem. We'll have a crisis and we'll just have the Fed bail us out and then we'll get money again because the Fed always seems to give Black Rockck money when there's a crisis and then we'll just come up with some new private credit product to invest in for the next Ponzi. moving 25 base points in the overnight funding rate.
It's not that exciting. There are so many innovative things when we finance resi commercial real estate uh asset box. You think about capstack. You think about what a Fed could do. So, whoever whoever ends up being the Fed chair, there's so many innovative things. How do you use a balance sheet? How do you use liquidity?
Where on the yield curve is it? Sorry, I really apologize. I sound so jaded. It's just I personally hate it. And like I I look at people like Sam Alman and I'm like how the hell on $12 billion of revenue or even call it $20 billion of revenue revenue. You're you're losing money. So you're negative. You're in the red, right?
How on that are you committing to spend $1.4 trillion, you know? That would be like me, you know, what are we maybe $140 million company, right? So I run maybe 140 150, I don't know, whatever our valuation is. Maybe $200 million company, whatever it is, right? So you take a $200 million company and you're like, "Okay, cool.
You guys have AI revenue, rental revenue, whatever. Maybe maybe our total income for a year is 5, 10 million, 20 million, whatever it ends up being, right?" But taking that small income and then going, "Hey guys, yeah, we got income 10 mil, 5 mil, 20 mil, whatever." Yeah, we're going to be spending $1.4 billion next year.
If I made a YouTube video going, "Hey guys, my $200 million company that makes $20 million is going to spend $1.4 billion next year." Everybody would call me a clown. And frankly, rightfully so. It's dumb. When you put the numbers into perspective, it's like this doesn't make any sense at all. Yet, here we are, right?
Uh, and so this alignment is really weird, but it makes sense. This is exactly the kind of guy Trump wants. Trump wants it because it pumps the markets, baby. Like, you think the bubble is big? Let's show you how much we can inflate this bubble. Now, if you compare to like Walsh, uh, Kevin W is probably better for deflation.
But look, I already made a video on this guy. This guy's a too. I'd rather have Rick than WSH because even though Rick is just going to expand the Ponzi more, I'm a pretty conservative guy. I'm always going to be pretty conservative with not only my startup, but my recommendations here on YouTube uh or in our alpha report or whatever.
Remember, coupon code expires tomorrow night, my birthday. You could join my birthday coupon code. It'll be special. Uh you know, it's like a birthday present to Kevin and yourself. But anyway, you know, so like short term, Rick is great. He's just going to pump up the ponds more. Great. Great for markets, great for interest rates, great for real estate.
Great. Let it be rigged. Wash would be bad. Watch my video on WS because if that guy is in and we go into a recession, he will keep the boot on our neck because that's exactly what he did in 2008 and 2009. He tried keeping the boot on the neck of the market while it couldn't breathe in the puddle of water.
That's dumb. That doesn't make any sense at all. I mean, I get it from like a point of view of like, oh well, you know, we need to constrain the debt, but it's really painful. Sure, like somebody like Peter Ship would be like, no, man, let it all collapse. Let it be painful. Leave the guy suffering in the pool of water.
War just comes and steps on your neck. Makes it even worse worse, you know? Whereas you get like a Ben Bernanki. He's like, "Here, let me help bail you out, you know." So, it's kind of like pick your poison. They all come with problems, but you just got to know what you're going to get and how to play the game cuz the rules of the game are going to change.
So here's my outline for what I call the shill scale. You've got Kevin Hasset. All right, this is the guy who's calling for Dow 36,000 in 1 to two years. He said that in 1999 that probably went down as the worst investment call in like a century. People he wrote a book on it. People really It's hard for this guy.
Uh people won't let that fly for this guy. I kind of feel bad. But then again, we know he's kind of a Trump shill. Worsh he's somewhat of a shill. He's more of a flip-flopper. mostly cuz he's just trying to get the job, but he's less of a shield. Then you got Waller. The reason I don't think Waller is going to get picked anymore, I made a video about how I thought Waller would be best, and I do think Waller would be best because he's a PhD economist and he probably would be best.
He's a technocrat. Like, he looks at the numbers and the data and then decides, and he doesn't have all this sort of Wall Street connection uh that Rick does. But uh Waller's interesting because I thought he had a good chance before meeting Trump, but after he met Trump, Trump never said anything good about him.
And I'm like, "Oh no, the meeting must have gone bad." I think that Waller turned into a temporary faux shill and Trump saw through it. I think Waller pretended to be a Trump shill, but he doesn't know how to talk like a crony. And because he's not a crony, Trump's like, "Nah, I don't know, man. I'll just keep you as an easy vote on the Fed board.
Let me find somebody else because the two on the left were stupid choices. So Waller was the best of those three. So what a surprise. After he meets Waller, all of a sudden Rick comes up because we need to find somebody else. Get me another guy, so to speak. All right. Fantastic. So here we are. So, this is where I believe that Donald Trump has a real potential of announcing Rick, uh, whom I think, you know, while he's got big conflicts of interest, I think he's probably going to be better for markets in the long term, although the, you know, he'll pump the markets.
Uh, but, uh, and there will be a crash, but he'll also pump us out of that crash. The US is just going to expand its debt way more under Rick, you know, through money printing than under WSH. So, if you want debt down, you want wash. If you don't give a crap about the debt, you just want the market to go up and you want lower rates.
Rick is fantastic. And to me, that sounds exactly like the kind of person Donald Trump wants. And that's why I would not be surprised that any bad news that we get out of the Fed regarding a pause or whatever ends up getting offset by Donald Trump announcing Rick for Fed chair and we pump the markets for the short term, at least until the Ponzi actually ends up collapsing.
When it does, we'll have a bunch of cash sitting around to go shopping. That doesn't mean don't go shopping now, right? Like my startup, we're still grinding on our uh real estate AI. The product's out. You can get it. Um we're raising the price on that tomorrow night as well. Use that coupon code bday at houseack.com.
Uh we're closing the fund raise on the 6th and we'll deploy capital slowly into conservative good real estate deals. You know, every deal we find, we try to make 100 to $150,000. We think that's a good, you know, 20% ROI relatively quickly. Uh, and then we usually just hold these properties because we look at them as a piggy bank over time.
Now, obviously then ROI kind of, you know, it it can slow down over time naturally until you refinance, do it again. But nobody wants to refinance now, now's the time to be cautious and keep the options open. I like building the piggy bank, low debt right now. So, if we go into a crisis and then I go to the bank and go, I want to borrow, I want to be the only one at the bank borrowing because everybody else went bankrupt.
I'm just sharing exactly what my MO is because I my opinion is I wear my heart and soul on my sleeve. I'm just going to tell you what my thoughts are, where my head is, and I'll just give it to you stra.
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