저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 금리를 올릴 수 없는 구조(4조달러 부채, 이자부담)라 인플레가 지속되며 실질금리는 하락하므로 금 강세 지속. 5월 무역적자 775억달러, 상품적자 1065억달러로 악화, 관세는 효과 없다고 주장. AI로 서비스 수출 감소 우려. 금 장기 목표 1만달러, 은 200달러. 금 4,100달러·은 60달러 조정은 매수 기회로 봄.
다듬은 글
Gold traders believe this. I think this is the main reason why gold is still worth 4.4100. This is due to expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates. The economy is weak. The housing market is weak. The last thing the markets could endure is a rate hike. In fact, this is the main reason why the rate hike was canceled altogether.
But the goods deficit was $106.5 billion . This is a huge amount. One of the worst commodity shortages we've ever had. Trump should solve this with tariffs. If our trading partners can now use artificial intelligence to perform services that were previously performed by Americans, then those Americans will be out of a job.
We have a deficit because the public wants something. You know, the public wants healthcare. No, this is not the government's job. People say, "Well, people want housing." Well, how will they get housing from the government? The government has no housing. Elizabeth Warren said that the big beautiful bill is that the rich are robbing the middle class and the poor.
You have to do something. The Fed can't just talk about raising rates. She will have to really raise them. And if this does not happen, then the remnants of trust in the Fed will disappear. So the markets should be weaker. Stock markets should be much weaker right now because of this threat. Unless no one believes it.
But gold traders believe. I think this is the main reason why gold is still at 4.4100. This is due to expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates. That's why the dollar index is at 101. The dollar has risen on expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates. If this does not lead to an increase, it will be tantamount to a decrease .
In fact, it will be a big decrease. Even if they raise it, it will be a decrease because they will not raise as much as inflation is rising. So real interest rates will fall. I've been discussing this point of view for months on this podcast . Investors do n't seem to understand this. But it doesn't matter what the Fed does with rates, because even if we get three 25 basis point rate hikes, it will be 75 basis points.
This is nothing. Inflation will be much higher than expected. So real rates will fall even if nominal rates rise. But the problem is that we have so much debt . The economy, the job market...I discussed how bad the employment numbers we got, uh, on Thursday were on my last podcast. But the labor market is weak.
Gold exceeds $4,000. Silver is around 60. And both just rolled back a lot. So what's going on? Peter Schiff says most investors are following the wrong signal. The Fed reports on interest rates and employment, while the real story, the national debt of about $40 trillion, is ignored. Here are the latest gold and silver news that send a direct message to precious metals investors.
The economy is weak right now . The housing market is weak. Uh, and the last thing you know the markets can survive is a rate hike. In fact, this is the main reason why the rate hike was canceled altogether. That's why when Pal was president, they lowered interest rates. This wasn't just to, you know, help re-elect Biden or elect Chloe Harris.
This was because banks started to fail. This was because the economy was in jeopardy due to the huge amount of debt we have, and our debt problem was getting worse. In fact, look at the trade deficit that just came out. We got the report on the May, no, June trade deficit . A single trade deficit appeared .
The deficit in May, and we had a huge increase compared to the previous month. Trade deficit increases by 42%. The previous month was $54.6 billion , and May was $77.6 billion. This is actually a little less than the markets expected. So the markets were expecting huge growth, and we got huge growth, and this huge growth was driven by both a 3.2% drop in exports and a 3.3% increase in imports.
So the situation worsened on both sides . And actually, if you just look at the goods trade deficit for May, because we have a services surplus, but the goods deficit was $106.5 billion . This is a huge amount. One of the worst commodity shortages we've ever had. Trump was supposed to fix this with tariffs.
And again, I've said this from the beginning that tariffs won't work, and they haven't worked. They didn't work during Trump's first term, and they're not working during his second. During his first term, he campaigned on reducing the deficit, the trade deficit. However, the trade deficit has reached record highs during Trump's presidency.
I predicted this would happen. I said that tariffs would have no effect. That the trade deficit will continue to worsen because tariffs have not combatted the disease. They were struggling with the symptom. And in doing so, they allowed the disease to worsen. The same thing happened this time. Tariffs did not lead to a revival of manufacturing.
The manufacturing downturn continues during Trump's term, and we continue to become increasingly dependent on foreign manufacturing. And by the way, where AI will first significantly change its activities is the service sector. Many of the services that America currently exports may no longer be needed by many of our customers.
They may be able to use these services, uh, these functions performed by AI. So if we don't have to provide services because foreign companies can use AI to perform services that were previously provided by American workers, then the deficit will get much worse because our services surplus will shrink, as will service sector employment because many jobs depend on the services we export.
Not just the services we consume domestically, but also our services trade balance. If our trading partners can now use AI to perform services that were previously provided by Americans, then those Americans will be out of a job. You know, one of the main reasons for such a large budget deficit is that politicians want to be elected and they want to give society what they want.
This is an inherent flaw in democracy, and it is why the Founding Fathers created America as a republic, not a democracy. It's not that democracies don't exist. The founders were very familiar with democracies and their history of failure. And the experiment they launched in the United States was a self-governing republic, hoping that we could, uh, avoid the pitfalls of democracy.
We have the democratic features of our republic. But in general, the purpose of a republic is to protect the minority from the majority. But the reason I was thinking about this is because I was watching, uh, CNBC, and there was a live debate going on between this Steve Lyman, senior economics reporter, and Rick Santelli, uh, from CNBC.
And I've known Rick for a long time, and you know, Rick's a good guy. Although I don't always agree with Rick, I, uh, I appreciate his enthusiasm and his feelings, and a lot of times he's right about some things, and, uh, in this particular argument, he was right. Lisman is rarely, if ever, right. But what they were arguing about, and I did n't even see all of this, but at some point Liman said, "Well, you know, we have a deficit because the public wants certain things.
You know, the public wants health care, and so, according to Liman, the government should provide that health care because the public wants it." No, this is not the government's job. I discussed this on my podcast before Independence Day, that government is not there to provide us with what we want.
The government exists to ensure our freedoms, to ensure our rights. We don't have a right to healthcare because you can't have a right to something that puts the responsibility on someone else. If I say I have the right to medical care, then which doctor is my slave, right? I'm going to use the government to enforce slavery so that people will provide me with medical care.
No, you don't have the right to take anything from someone else. Rights exist on their own. The government ensures your right to seek medical care. That is, if I want to try to get health care, if I want to buy health care, the government has no right to interfere, even though that is exactly what our government does all the time.
They interfere in everything. There are all sorts of rules and regulations that limit my ability to buy the healthcare I want because the FDA has to approve the drugs, and if the FDA doesn't approve them, I can't buy them even if I want to. You see, everything has been turned upside down for us . We are actually violating rights when the government says you can't choose.
You can't buy what you want. You can't use the medicine you want, but we're going to...we're going to give you free medical care. We are going to provide you with money if you consume healthcare that we think is appropriate for you . But this is not the function of the government. Yes, people want medical care.
They want many things. People want all kinds of things. This does not mean that the government should provide it. The price of gold fell to around $4,100, and silver to around $60. Both prices fell after a strengthening dollar, rising Treasury yields, and a sharp rise in oil prices caused by tensions over the Hormuz settlement.
Traders now see about a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike by September, putting short-term pressure on metals. But let's digress. China's central bank has been buying gold for 20 consecutive months . And Hong Kong just launched a new gold clearing system linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange, a sign of continued physical demand, regardless of short-term rates.
Here Schiff is frank. He says investors are being misled by the Fed's rhetoric because with a debt of nearly $40 trillion, a deficit of nearly $3 trillion, and interest payments heading toward $2 trillion, the Fed can't raise rates enough to fight inflation without hurting its own ability to pay its bills.
So inflation becomes the path of least resistance. That's why Schiff calls every decline a buying opportunity, not a warning. His long-term goals – gold at $10,000, silver at $ 200 – are driven by a weaker dollar, not stronger metals. You'll need a lot more dollars to buy silver and everything else.
He says he also expects silver to outperform gold as the bull market matures. The government should stay out of it, because again , the government has nothing. People say, " Well, people want housing ." Well, how are they going to get housing from the government? The government has no housing. How will the government get housing?
Well, they'll have to hire people to build houses . Well, where will they get the money? They will have to take them from the private sector. So they will either have to hire private contractors or take money from taxpayers and then pay it to a private developer. But why should the government interfere?
If the public wants homes, let the free market provide housing, because that's how capitalism works. People know, people need homes. If I build houses and sell them, I'll make money, right? People need housing. This is how capitalism works. The capitalist identifies a need and tries to satisfy it because he can get rich in the process.
He can make money. But it can only make money if it meets needs efficiently and economically. It must be able to satisfy needs using fewer resources, uh, than the consumer would value them . So I should be able to use land, labor, and capital to build a house that someone will want to buy, because they will value the house at more than the cost of building it.
The difference lies in the reward, i.e. profit. I built a house, uh, at a price that the consumer saw as valuable, and obviously the house is an important example. But every product, clothing, food, whatever, as a businessman, is motivated by the needs and wants of my customers. If I can satisfy these needs and desires, and I can do it effectively, then I can make money.
And that's why we have all these entrepreneurs trying to give society what society wants. Now, not for free . It is obvious that the public should buy what they want because they must pay for the resources needed to produce what they want. Because if no one paid for anything , then there would be nothing, because the people who are my clients are also producers.
They are working. Either they have their own business, or they are employees for someone else. They collectively contribute to the entire economic output, so they spend in proportion to what they helped produce. So their purchasing power comes from their own efforts, their own contribution. It simply doesn't arise from nothing.
But when you try to intervene in government, when you try to say, “Oh, government exists to meet the needs of the people,” how are politicians going to meet anything? There is no profit motive there. They don't run a business. All they can do is steal money from one person and give it to someone else.
And so when you task the government with meeting consumer needs, it does n't do it as effectively. So you are wasting resources. But more importantly, you are destroying individual freedom. You are becoming destructive to the very means by which government was created . Government exists to protect our rights and freedoms , not to give us things, but to keep us from losing what we have, what we earn.
You know, I was reading, you know, uh, on X, you know, about the wealth tax and so on. Uh , I was maybe on Elizabeth Warren's website, and she, you know , was talking about a great, beautiful bill, and she was critical of a great, beautiful bill, and I agree with her. I criticized a great, wonderful bill, but for the wrong reasons.
Elizabeth Warren said that the great beautiful bill is that the rich are robbing the middle class and the poor because they got the lion's share of the tax cuts, because more tax cuts went to the rich than the poor. She considered it legalized theft. As if rich people keeping more of what they earned is somehow stealing.
I mean, think about what we've come to. So if I want to keep my stolen money, the money I earned, the property I own, if I object to the government taking my property, then I am a thief. No, no. I object to theft. Thieves are not those people who earn money. Thieves are those who want to take money.
There is nothing wrong with wanting to keep what you have earned, your property. This is human nature. That's the whole American system of private property, which is not to deprive you of private property. And just because the government has the right to tax us, it can't tax us to take our money and give it to someone else.
They can tax us for the general welfare of the country, not for the specific welfare of an individual. They can tax us to cover military spending and the like, but they are not allowed to redistribute wealth. The Constitution was written specifically to prevent the government from redistributing wealth.
But , according to Elizabeth Warren, if you don't want your wealth redistributed, then you're stealing, right? All you don't let the government take from you is the money you stole. No, thieves, right? They never call people welfare thieves , you know? They don't steal money . Of course, they get the money that was stolen.
They are the recipients of stolen money, but they voted for the thieves. They are accomplices to the crime. They are thieves, not people who make money. And by the way, how did they make this money? They created a business. They produced products. They provide services. They created jobs. They added a lot of value.
And in exchange, they make money. And the fact that they want to keep more of that money doesn't make them thieves. Shift message in one line. Stop following what the Fed says. Keep track of what makes her do debt. So, do you think gold and silver still have room to grow, or has this growth gone too far?
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