저자: Benjamin Cowen · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 2026년 4분기 주식시장 매도세와 조정 가능성을 다룬다. 발표자는 중간선거 해의 4분기에 나타나는 전형적인 매도세 패턴을 근거로, 나스닥이 이미 10% 넘게 하락해 조정이 진행 중이라고 설명한다. 최근 세 번의 중간선거 해(2014, 2018, 2022년)에 연초와 연말에 조정이 반복된 사례를 비교하고, 현재 임기 수익률이 트럼프 1기와 유사하다는 점을 언급한다. 조정의 원인으로는 장기금리 하락과 성장 둔화 우려를 들고 있으며, 러셀 2000과 다우존스도 유사한 패턴을 보인다고 분석한다. S&P 500은 200일 이동평균선(약 7,300 부근)을 시험할 수 있다고 전망한다. 또한 이란 전쟁과 유가 변동, 중간선거를 불확실성 요인으로 꼽는다. 발표자는 저점이 몇 달 안에 형성될 수 있으며 OpenAI IPO가 2027년 초쯤 논의될 것으로 보았다. 영상 후반부는 자사 컨퍼런스 ITC 홍보와 티켓 구매 안내가 중심이다. 이는 발표자의 개인적 전망이며 투자 권유가 아니다.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, thank you for visiting Equity Verse again. Today we will talk about the continuation of the stock sell-off in Q4 2026. If you like this content, subscribe to the channel, like it, and take advantage of the discount on ITC premium. Link in the description below. As a reminder, the Investing Through Cycles (ITC) conference, our first conference, will be held in less than 3 weeks.
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Link in the description below. Let's get down to business. For almost the entire year, we've been talking about the typical stock sell-off that would likely occur in the 4th quarter of a congressional election year . This does not mean that it was inevitable, but nevertheless, it did happen. We talked about an expected drop of 10-20 %, plus or minus, but it's not an exact science.
You can already see that the Nasdaq is down more than 10%, right? So, the correction is still ongoing. And if you look at the Nasdaq's ROI since the beginning of 2026, it's pretty much the same scenario as 2018, right? I mean, the sale started around the same time. You see that it fell, but during the fall there were periodic rebounds up, but this did not stop the market from moving further down.
So, I assume that in the short term we will see the same thing: periodic rallies before a sell-off. Even today, the Nasdaq is already in the red. We saw earlier that the Nasdaq was up in the first part of the week, right? It seemed to go up at the beginning of the week, then down at the end, then up again and down again.
This is a pattern that is at least worth paying attention to see if it repeats itself again. But, in the end, we have exactly the correction that we have always observed. And one of the reasons we talked about this is if you look at the last three years of midterm elections, right? If you just look at the last three, you'll see that's exactly how it's been going, right?
For example, in 2014, we first had a correction at the beginning of the midterm election year, and then a correction at the end of the same year. And then in 2018 it was the same, right? At the beginning of 2018, the stock market underwent a correction. And then, at the end of 2018, the stock market suffered a 23% correction.
And then in 2022, the situation was very similar, although it was a full-fledged “bear” market throughout the year. First we had a 20% drop, and then, starting in the third quarter, another drop of about 23%. So, this is quite expected. This is something we've seen before in midterm election years: a correction at the beginning of the year, then another one at the end.
And you can see that we already had a correction earlier this year. This was a drop of about 13%. So, the correction we had here at the beginning of the year is not very different from the one at the beginning of 2018. Now what's fascinating is if you look at the dynamics of presidential term returns for something like the Nasdaq, or let's look at the S&P 500.
It's loading here now. If you look at it, you'll see that the actual return on the S&P right now is practically the same as it was during Donald Trump's first term. You see how the first quarter correction coincided , and now the fourth quarter correction is coinciding. The only difference between this current term and Trump's first term is that we had a sell-off here too, in early 2025.
It had to do with all those customs, right? So, these were the tariffs at the beginning of 2025. But then we had the same correction at the beginning of 2018 as we did at the beginning of 2026, more or less, and now it looks like we have a very similar correction at the end of 2026 as we did at the end of 2018.
So, what are the reasons for this correction? Well, one of the things to remember is that often markets correct when long-term rates fall, and that's because of fears of a growth slowdown, right? Often the reason is the fear of slowing growth , because many believe that if long-term rates fall, it is positive for risky assets, but this is not the case if the reason is concerns about economic growth or other problems.
So the market generally went up when long-term rates went up , but you'll notice that when they went down in the first quarter of 2026, it coincided with the Nasdaq drop that we just talked about, right? This actually corresponded to the market low, more or less, and we may now be seeing it happen again.
I now expect some correction to the mean in long-term rates, not necessarily to a new high, but more like a bounce out of overconfidence , before they probably go down again. At least, that's how I assume things will develop, but you can see that the Nasdaq has already dropped significantly. Now, if you look at other markets, right?
If you look at Russell, it has already fallen a lot and is now, you could say, retesting its 21-week EMA, but that's business as usual, right? If you go back to 2018, you can see that it fell, then rebounded, and then there was a kind of second stage of the fall, right? I wonder if we're in a situation now: there was the first drop, we're bouncing back, and maybe the second one is about to start, if you look at other periods of the market, right?
If you look at 2024 and 2025, the same thing happened there , right? There was an initial drop, then a test of the bull market's growth, and then there was a second wave of this drop. So I assume the same thing will happen with the Russell, and you can also look at the Dow Jones. The Dow, you know, did something very, very similar : first there was an initial drop in 2018, then a rebound, and then a more significant drop.
And then it all continues. I think that's exactly what's happening now. The Dow and Russell have already taken big falls, haven't they? The Dow has already fallen about 7%. Russell has already fallen by about 11-12%. And the one thing that hasn't fallen significantly yet is the S&P 500, right? It only decreased by about 4%.
Now I assume this will continue, right? I would probably assume that it will continue, although it hasn't, you know, accelerated yet. But if we look at the S&P from a YTD ROI perspective , let's move on to the indices and look at the S&P 500 in 2026 compared to 2018. The sell-off isn't that significant at this point, is it?
But you see that this potential period of weakness could continue, and it seems to be somewhat consistent with what we saw in 2018. Of course? So, I think the S&P is probably the last thing to fall before we see some kind of policy response from the administration. The daily chart shows that the S&P has already fallen somewhat below the 50-day moving average.
It is currently in the support zone of the bull market. I think it will most likely continue to fall and soon test the 200-day moving average, which is currently in the 7300 area. At least, that's what I think. Again , there are rebounds. Remember, one of the things about markets, and we've seen the Nasdaq do this many times, is that it often sets a high, then stays below it for a long time, then rises back up to it, and then there's a correction.
You see, it happened here, in 2024 and 2025. This also happened partly here, although it was n't the maximum, but it went up again and then it happened again. So you see this repeating pattern, right? Rising to a maximum, falling, returning to a maximum, and then more falling. And then it happened again in 2026 , early 2026, and now it looks like it's happening again at the end of 2026.
So this is a typical model. We've been talking about this for some time. But despite all the talk, the correction in the 4th quarter still came. Just a few weeks ago, there was a lot of speculation from people saying, well, since everyone is expecting this, it's not really going to happen. But it just shows you why such thoughts can often turn out to be wrong , right?
For example, people think, “Oh, everyone is waiting for this. So, this won't happen ." And it happens anyway. And that's what I've been talking about a lot about Bitcoin, right? We've already talked about Bitcoin falling in Q4, and people are saying, "Well, it's not going to happen because everyone is waiting for it." But we said the same thing in February, and the same thing in the summer about Bitcoin, right?
That it usually reaches its minimum in February, that is, in the first quarter, in the summer , and then in the fourth. And every time people say, "Well, if everyone's waiting for this, it won't happen." And then it happens anyway. So I would still rely on the charts. I mean, as long as things are going like this , I would just lean towards it.
Because we don't have a lack of uncertainty. Obviously, there is a war in Iran. There are, you know, midterm elections tomorrow, so expect some volatility around that . The war in Iran is a more complicated moment, right? Because if you look at, say, WTI oil, and you just look at the chart, right? You will see that it probably still remains more or less in this uptrend channel.
I don't know how you want to draw the line, but it seems to me that it's more or less in this channel. And I would say that the most likely point where we are now is something like this. Because you see that we had this big move up from the trend line, right? You have a kind of greater movement towards it.
And then you go up to the middle and fall down again. It seems that's exactly what's happening here. I assume, of course , with some skepticism, that we will probably see oil continue to rise, perhaps after the midterm elections. Of course, that could change if they do a deal , but I also think that to a large extent the market is being exhausted by this elusive deal.
And I wonder how long the market will take these headlines, because all of 2026 we saw headlines saying that the war was over, the deal was signed, and the oil was about to flow. And then, a month later, we're back to square one . So how long will the markets tolerate this before they rebel? I don't know if we've reached that point yet, but I think it will happen soon.
The market will probably rebel against this and stop believing the headlines over the next 12–18 months. Because the headlines were, you know, very misleading about what was actually happening. And when you look back, when you really think about what was said this year, right? And how many times has it supposedly ended , you start to think, "Hey, maybe that's not really true, you know?" I'll just say this.
I mean, you know, at what point are the markets going to start rejecting all these headlines and stop believing what they're saying at all? And I think that will probably happen. Again , I think we'll see this transition, you know, within the next year or so. But I don't know if we're at that stage yet.
I mean, it seems like the market is still very reactive to what's coming out, at least for now. At least for now. So, watch the stock market. I mean, watch the Nasdaq. I think the corrections are likely to continue, at least in the short term . And I would expect a low to form within the next few months or so.
And then from there I would expect some rebound from that low. And then the next discussion will move on to the OpenAI IPO, which will probably happen sometime in early 2027, I assume. But that's how markets usually behave in the fourth quarter of an interim year. Of course? This is what they usually do.
And when you start seeing these big drops in names like Google, right? When you fall 10% overnight after reporting, you know, it becomes pretty clear that a correction is actually happening. Right? So, this is happening, and we've been talking about it all year. I know, at times it seemed like it wouldn't happen, but it did.
It happened the same way. So we will talk about this in more detail at the conference. Make sure you guys buy a ticket. The link is in the description below or in the pinned comment. It will take place in about 2.5 weeks. So, if you are in Miami or the area, don't hesitate to buy a ticket. Or if you want to fly in, that would be great too.
I'll be glad to see you there, and that's it . So, don't forget to subscribe and like this video. See you in Miami, where we will discuss where we are in the market and business cycles. See you next time. See you later.
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