저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏의 최근 현금 보유 확대(3477억 달러대)와 10분기 연속 순매도를 근거로, S&P500 P/E 30대·버핏지수 217% 등 고평가와 장단기 금리 역전을 들어 2008년보다 심각한 하락을 경고하는 내용. 리밸런싱, 비상자금, 분산투자, 사전 행동 원칙을 권고하며 중간에 유료 광고(무료 전자책·프로모션)가 삽입됨. 개별 종목·지수 방향에 대한 명시적 1~3개월 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
What would make Warren Buffett contradict everything he has always preached? The world's most disciplined and successful investor, Warren Buffett, has been behaving completely differently lately. More than ten consecutive quarters have already passed in which he has sold far more than he has bought.
It's not about predicting the future, but about positioning oneself. This is evident in its very bleak positioning. Today they will understand why he is acting as if something worse than 2008 were imminent. Warren Buffett has always been the symbol of patience in the market. He is known for buying good companies and holding them for decades.
But something has changed. He is quietly reducing his positions and accumulating cash, and the scale is unprecedented. In its latest report, Berkshare, its holding company, announced that it has over $347.7 billion in cash. It is the highest amount ever recorded by the company, even taking inflation and growth into account.
It is not just a treasure chest overflowing with good things; it is an active decision, a conscious choice. Furthermore, Buff has sold more than it has bought for ten consecutive quarters. In no other recent period has he spent so much time on the sell side of the market . That raises an uncomfortable question.
Why isn't someone who has always advocated for long-term investing buying ? Why so much cash? Even at Apple, which had been his main holding for years, the position was reduced by more than 6%, and he also sold a large portion of his shares in traditional banks such as Bank of America. These are institutions that he used to defend with conviction, and now even the share buybacks by Berksha, which used to be frequent, are no longer being observed.
They have practically come to a standstill. These movements are not random. Buffett does not attempt to predict the market peak. He simply does n't want to be unprotected in case something major happens. But does the market currently justify this level of caution? What does it see that others haven't yet recognized?
Buffett does n't sell on impulse. He does not act based on headlines or news feeds. His decisions are based on a cool analysis of the numbers, and today these numbers point to something desperate for the investor. The first signal comes from the evaluation. The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of the S&P 500, which measures the price of shares relative to the company's earnings, is over 30.
This means that, on average, investors are paying 30 times the earnings per share. Historically, the average is around 16. So we are at double the level considered healthy level. What makes this first signal even more alarming is that, according to a study by JP Morgan, every time the S&P 500 was bought with a P/E ratio above 23 , the average return over the following 10 years was between + and -2% per year without exception.
That means, in the best-case scenario, it's a return that even inflation or any government bond can't match . and that comes with more risk. Aside from scenarios with negative returns, do n't you think that's a small amount? There is another indicator that Buffett considers fundamental. It is the so-called Buffett Indicator, the ratio of the total value of the stock market to the country's BP.
In June, this indicator exceeded 217%. With a valuation exceeding 156%, it is already considered significantly overvalued. In other words, the market valuation is far beyond the borders. Investors assume that nothing will go wrong. And if everything has to go perfectly for prices to remain stable, that in itself is a problem.
But it doesn't end there. Interest rates, which had fallen for decades and fueled asset growth , have now risen and will remain high. Buffett often says that interest rates act like gravity on asset prices. The higher they are, the more difficult the markets become. We are now experiencing this effect quietly and secretly.
Another point that many ignore is that the US yield curve remains inverted. This means that short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. Something unusual in the natural functioning of an economy. Under normal conditions, long-term bonds pay higher interest rates because the investor takes on more risk with the money they invest for a longer period.
When the curve reverses, it is a sign that the market believes the economy will slow down or enter a recession . Whenever this has happened in recent decades, a recession has followed shortly afterwards. And the longer the reversal lasts, the more serious the effect usually is. Additionally, indicators such as consumer confidence, the volume of loans granted, and industrial orders are declining.
Nothing catastrophic yet, but the signs are already piling up and Buffett sees the game coming before the others. But if even he acts so cautiously, what does that teach us? How can we apply the same defensive logic without losing out on long-term opportunities ? Buffett's movement teaches us a simple but powerful lesson.
The moment to act is before panic sets in. Waiting for the bubble to burst before making decisions rarely ends well. Those who act calmly and thoughtfully beforehand sleep better and achieve better returns on their investments. This preventative stance requires you to accept an unpleasant truth . It is impossible to predict the lowest point .
Trying to guess the worst moment in the market is like trying to pinpoint the exact moment a storm begins. Buffett knows this. That's why he's positioning himself gradually, without haste, but also without naivety. Buying good assets and holding them for decades has always been the core of his philosophy, and it remains so .
What is changing now is the degree of exposure. Instead of being 100% invested, he maintains his strategic reserve. That's not fear, that's intelligence. Holding part of their assets in cash protects them from being forced to sell at the worst possible moment. In a sharp downturn, those who have liquidity possess a superpower.
He can buy high-quality assets at a massive discount or cover emergencies without despair. But perhaps most importantly, it is essential to establish a personal investment strategy, to define in advance what to do in certain scenarios. For example, if the index falls by 20%, I will invest another 5% of my available capital.
It is much easier to play a game if you know the rules before you start and don't invent them during the game. Another fundamental insight is to prepare emotionally for volatility. Fluctuations are part of the cycle. The mistake is not seeing the portfolio fall, but changing the strategy every time that happens.
Buffett has seen his fortune decline by billions in weeks, yet he continues to do the same thing for decades because he acts based on rules, not emotions. Perhaps what you need today is not a new strategy, but the discipline to follow the one that already works, with adjustments of course. and with caution in view of the current situation.
And how exactly do you set up this defense? What practical steps can you take to protect your assets while still maintaining growth opportunities ? The first step is rebalancing. In long upward cycles, such as those we experienced until recently, it is common for the portfolio to be over-invested in growth assets .
Technology stocks, for example. Rebalancing means reducing this excessive position and strengthening more defensive positions. Sectors such as basic consumption, healthcare and traditional energy often perform better in turbulent times . It is no coincidence that Buffett, of the few purchases he made this last quarter, mainly invested in so-called boring businesses.
They exhibit a relatively stable revenue stream, low dependence on trends and moderates, but secure growth. Is your portfolio prepared in the same way? Then comes the safety reserve. Buffett wants freedom to make decisions and peace to wait. Having saved between 6 and 12 months of your living expenses in liquid assets gives you the same power and more.
It prevents you from being forced to sell shares at the worst possible moment. That may seem like a small amount, but imagine the difference between selling your assets at a 30% loss and being able to wait until the market recovers. The only thing better than that is if you can invest this reserve in assets that protect you from inflation.
If you wish, you can use the book free from inflation for 30 days. A practical method to protect your money in 30 days or less, which can save you hundreds of euros per year. Take advantage of the introductory promotion; the link is in the description. But back to buffalo strategies. Another critical point is actual diversification.
This goes beyond simply mixing stocks and fixed-income securities. It also includes diversification between countries, currencies, and sectors. Many investors keep 100% of their assets tied to the euro or their own local market. But what if the next crisis affects this very region? Having part of the portfolio invested in other currencies and in economies with different dynamics can be a powerful safeguard.
And more importantly, you have a defined strategy for action. Making decisions under stress opens the door to regret. Define beforehand: if the market falls by 15%, I'll do this. If it rises too sharply, I'll do that. This may seem exaggerated now, but in critical moments, those who act with clarity and confidence are the ones who act most effectively.
And if all of this seems difficult, imagine being forced to do it in the middle of a market downturn. Consider the following. Perhaps the most important step right now is to simplify, cut expenses, review costs, and sell the unused car or underutilized property to build up their reserve. It 's not easy, but it's easier now than during the chaos.
Buffett doesn't warn, he acts. Perhaps this is not a crisis worse than 2008, or perhaps no crisis will occur at all, but he is prepared for both scenarios. Liquidity, discipline, diversification, protection. That's what he's doing, and they too can act now before the market forces them to. But he is not the only one.
Rai Dio is also vigilant, and we show what he said and did in this video, which now appears on your screen. See you there.
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