저자: FinanzielleVision채널진행자 · 외국인
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S&P·주요 지수가 역사적 고점 부근이라 2020년 직전과 유사한 경고 신호가 있고, 에너지(호르무즈 봉쇄)·국가부채·유럽 산업 약화의 3중 위기로 다음 충격이 2020년보다 클 것이라 주장. 유럽·영국 국채금리 사상 최고 수준(독일 10년물 2011년 수준)을 근거로 제시. 버핏의 애플 매도와 현금 확보를 위기 신호로 해석. 대응으로 유동성 확보(ETF의 20~30% 현금화), 생필품 사재기, 금(€4200 미만 분할매수)·은(€70까지) 분할매수를 권고하며 책 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
All major indices are trading near their historical highs. At first glance, everything seems great . But that's exactly what happened in 2020, weeks before the markets crashed by 30% in 3 weeks . Today the signs are very similar again and Buffett, the world's most respected investor, is repeating the same safety protocols he uses before every crisis.
But there's a catch. This time, there are stricter measures that will make the next shock much worse than the one in 2020. In this video, I will show you what these stricter measures are and what you can do with your money before it's too late . Most people who don't deal intensively with finances are relaxed.
But for those who look more closely, the signs are worrying. Yields on European government bonds have reached their highest level in over a decade. Ten-year German bonds have once again reached the level of 2011, the peak of the euro crisis. British bonds are at their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
Simply put, when bond yields rise, the market demands higher interest rates because it perceives a higher risk. He trusts the system less. This should be a warning sign for anyone who has invested money. However, there are other details that almost no one mentions. For example, Warren Buffett sold half of his position in Apple.
This company was his biggest bet for years. and made up more than 40% of Berkshire Hathaway's total portfolio. He was a net seller of stocks for several consecutive quarters. He is withdrawing from this and many other iconic positions. Anyone who has followed Buffett for decades knows that he never acts without a reason.
That reminds me of a specific moment. January 2020. Do you know what the markets did this month? They have risen. While images from Wuhan went around the world and hospitals were built in days, markets boomed and most people thought it was just a minor flu. Three weeks later, the global market lost 30% of its value.
The pattern today is similar. Signs appear, but many ignore them as if they were nothing significant. We have discussed many times in this channel that all of this points to an impending crisis . But why might it be worse this time than in 2020? In 2020, it was a unique shock: a pandemic. Governments still had room to act, to print money, open credit lines, and launch economic stimulus packages.
The debts were still at a manageable level. When we were in the middle of the storm, many felt that it would never end. Each day seemed to last for weeks. Nevertheless, the recovery was rapid. Today, everything indicates that it will be different. Today we have three crises at once. And these are the stricter measures .
The first is the energy crisis. The Strait of Hormos is blocked. Normally, one in every five barrels consumed worldwide passes through this passage. Since the beginning of the crisis, less than 10% of the normal volume has been circulating. The International Energy Agency has already ordered the largest release of strategic reserves in its history.
400 million barrels, an absolute record. And yet the price of oil is above 100 US dollars. In Asia, people are queuing at gas stations. Rationing is already underway in Slovakia, India, Pakistan and Taiwan. Europe is vulnerable. If the crisis is prolonged, the impact will reach us here as well, because despite the alarming events, the actual effects have not yet reached our wallets.
By the way, would you like a video about the effects of this? Comment below and we can produce it. The second crisis is the sovereign debt crisis. As already mentioned, bond yields and therefore debt interest rates are exploding throughout Europe. The United Kingdom has reached its highest level since 2008.
The Eurozone is under increasing pressure. The United States has a Schröden debt of 39 trillion US dollars. The annual cost of this debt alone has already exceeded one trillion US dollars per year. To give you some perspective , this is more than the entire military budget of the country. Europe is following the same path.
Governments are issuing record amounts of bonds to plug budget holes, not to invest in infrastructure or production . And it doesn't take a genius to know that it's a huge mistake to take out a loan at a higher interest rate on a previous debt. But that's still what the government is doing. The third crisis affects the real economy.
European industry is structurally weakened. Automotive sector, manufacturing, retail. Production is shrinking in several countries across the continent. Hundreds of thousands of industrial jobs have disappeared in recent years due to fragility accumulated over years . And unfortunately, no economic stimulus package will solve this quickly.
The European Central Bank is in a trap where there are no good options . If it raises interest rates, it will stifle the already weak growth. If it lowers interest rates, it will trigger a second wave of inflation. In 2022, the ECB proved that it acts too late . She let inflation exceed 10% before she reacted.
For their money, the end result is the same in every scenario, but only if they do nothing or, worse still, make the wrong decision. You might think I will wait and see how the situation develops. I will take action when things are clearer. That's exactly what the majority will think, and it's the most expensive mistake you can make at this moment .
The problem is waiting for security at a moment when security no longer exists. By the time the crisis becomes obvious to everyone, the market has already priced it in. The losses have already occurred and the decision whether to prepare or not has already been made and what remains is at most a reduction of the damage.
Remember 2020, when the crash really began in March, it all happened within 3 weeks. Those who sold in the first week lost 15%. Those who waited for confirmation and sold in the third week lost 30%. And not only that, the window of opportunity to buy at the lowest point lasted less than 30 days. And almost everyone had missed this window by waiting for the situation to become clearer.
There is a paradox at the heart of all this. The right moment to act never seems to be right. When everything is quiet, caution seems excessive. When everything falls apart, taking action seems very risky. Markets punish those who wait for safety and reward those who act proactively. Anyone who observes the signals can reduce the risk before the problem occurs.
That's what those who make profits in times of crisis do. It is better to miss some opportunities because you were prepared than to lose a significant portion of your accumulated wealth because you delayed preparation. Do you agree? If you don't want to improvise when this shock occurs, we have created the book Free from Inflation in 30 Days.
A step-by- step plan to protect your assets within the next 30 days. The link with all the information can be found in the video description. Purchase your copy now. Now we have three simple steps that you can put into practice. The first step is to reduce your risk before the crash occurs. It's not about selling everything.
It's about repositioning oneself. Those who had liquidity in March 2020 bought shares at a 30 to 40% discount. It may have been luck to hit the lowest point, but to have capital. When that moment comes, it's not luck. And that's exactly what Buffett does. He builds up liquidity over several quarters while markets are still high by unwinding positions.
In total, he has about 370 billion US dollars available to profit from the next corporate sales. If you have money invested in ETFs, consider moving 20 to 30% into liquid assets. Not everything. But especially if they have very little money available for emergencies, just enough to have purchasing power when the next low point comes.
The second step is to buy physical goods as immediate protection. Oil is in everything. Transport, production, packaging, plastics. When oil prices rise, almost all everyday goods rise with them . A second wave of inflation is imminent. That's simple math. With disrupted supply chains and higher energy costs, consumer prices will rise across Europe in all sectors.
Not because supermarkets want to make more profit or because of tax increases, but because the costs of producing and delivering everything will rise. Something you can do today that is really useful is to buy five units of things that you would normally buy in a quantity of one. Provided they are not perishable.
Laundry detergent, canned goods, hygiene products. It sounds simple, but it's a real protection against the price increases that are already coming our way [in music]. You will use these things in everyday life anyway . It is possible that the price increase will have already passed by the time you need to buy these items again .
Or in the worst case scenario, you have more time before you are affected. The third step is investing in gold and silver, but with the knowledge of when to enter the market. Gold has risen by over 40% in the last year . Then came a correction of almost 30%. That's normal after such strong movements.
Gold remains a safe haven. But don't buy everything at once. As long as gold is below €4200, buy it in small portions. The buying zone for silver is up to €70. Why? Because central banks will inevitably print money again, and it will always be more than we can imagine. If that happens, gold and silver prices will rise sharply.
The long-term prospects for gold and silver are extremely promising. But be careful. When panic sets in, everything will be sold, including these metals. In moments like these, cash is king. Build up the position gradually. Never everything at once. And I need to make one thing clear. This video is not about the end of the world.
This is not about panic. It is not the announcement of the apocalypse. The point is to remind yourself of one thing once and for all. The effect will occur. It's impossible to know exactly when, but the signs are there and most people are not positioned. Buffett has a sentence that sums it up better than any chart.
As long as the tide is high, nobody notices the problem. Only when the tide goes out can you see who was swimming naked, and then it's too late. The goal is to give them time. Time to reduce risk, position a portion of their assets, and be ready when the window opens, because it will open and those who were prepared will benefit.
And I hope that you are the one who benefits from it. The signs are there. We have three enormously exacerbated factors that will make the next shock far worse than anything we have seen before . And I swear, I wish I were wrong. Subscribe to the channel and like the video if you found this content useful in any way .
That helps a lot. And do n't forget to watch this video that will now appear on your screen. In it, we show the only assets that, historically speaking, have survived such a crisis . See you there.
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