저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
금은 2월 고점 이후 전쟁 발발 후 한 달 내 25% 하락했으나, 과거 4차례(1973, 1978, 2008 등) 유사 하락 뒤 크게 반등한 사례를 근거로 금을 위기 신호로 해석. 호르무즈 봉쇄로 원유 공급 7~10% 부족, 미국 재정 고정지출이 세수의 104%에 달해 결국 통화 증발이 불가피하다고 주장. 이후 금·원자재→달러 약세→실물자산→위험자산 순서의 4단계 파동을 예고하며 비트코인 1~5% 편입을 권유. 말미에 도서 구매·영상 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Gold reached its historic high in February, but after the war began, it fell by 25% in less than a month. This contradicts everything we have learned. Shouldn't gold rise in times of instability? This pattern has only occurred four times in the last 50 years, and each time it happened, it was followed by one of the largest capital transfers in history.
In this video, I will show you the exact sequence of movements that took place and how you can position yourself before most people understand what is happening. To better explain the sequence of events , gold was at €4600 per ounce at the end of February. Peak: Then the conflict escalated. The Strait of Hormuz was closed, and all investors expected the same thing.
Rising gold prices. That's the standard scenario, but that didn't happen. The metal fell by 25% in less than a month. At the end of March it reached €3900. It was the biggest weekly decline since 1933. Market sentiment shifted overnight from euphoria to panic. Individual investors sold, leveraged traders were liquidated.
The financial media published headlines about gold as if it were broken or no longer served as a safe haven. If they were only looking at the 30-day window, that would be frightening. But there is a context that completely changes the entire interpretation . A decline of 25% or more in gold during a global crisis has only occurred four times in the last 50 years .
And what came after each of these times tells a completely different story. In 1973, during the OPEC oil embargo and the Jim Kepur War, gold fell by 29%. Over the following 15 months, it increased by 117%. In 1978, with the Iranian Revolution and the collapse of the Shar regime, it fell by 22%. Within 12 months, it shot up by 300% to its then record high.
In 2008, during the global financial crisis, when Bier Stern filed for bankruptcy and credit markets froze, gold fell by 34%. Then the Fed announced quantitative easing and the metal rose by 180% in the following 3 years. The average decline across these four episodes was approximately 25%. The current decline from the peak in February to the low in March was also 25%.
But wait, if gold offers protection , why does it fall precisely when we need it most? That's the question most people don't ask. Because when a crisis breaks out, funds with losses in other assets sell what they can immediately liquidate to cover margins and redemptions. Gold is not being sold because it has lost value.
It is being sold because it is the asset that can most easily be converted into cash. It is a forced sale, not a rejection of the metal. The signal has been sent. Gold has already risen above €4050 again . Central banks bought more than 700 tons last year, and China has been buying ton after ton for 15 consecutive months.
Gold is not the main story here. Gold is the signal. And when this signal is triggered, a specific series of events begins to unfold. Gold was the first signal, but what will drive everything forward is oil. Before the conflict, approximately 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
That equates to 20% of the world's supply flowing through a single point. When the road was closed, the world rushed to replace that river. Saudi Arabia increased the capacity of its pipelines to the Red Sea. The United Arab Emirates rerouted exports via underground pipelines. The International Energy Agency released emergency reserves.
Russia moved floating stocks. All of this resulted in approximately 12.5 million barrels per day of replacement supply, of which 4 million were temporary and did not regenerate. Bloomberg estimates that the actual deficit is over 11 million barrels per day . The world is currently operating with a shortage of between 7 and 10% of its total oil supply.
This number is more important than it seems. In the last 60 years, there have only been two declines of this magnitude in global supply. In 1980, global consumption fell by 4.3% and the world entered a recession. During COVID, it fell by 9.2% and the Fed had to print 6 trillion euros , while governments made direct transfers to prevent the system from collapsing.
We are now in this interval, and the consequences do n't stop with oil. When energy prices rise, all other prices that depend on them also rise. Diesel powers the trucks that supply the supermarkets. Kerosene powers the planes that deliver the orders . Natural gas heats the factories that produce what they buy.
This entire inflation is already factored into the cost chain; it just hasn't yet been reflected in the prices they pay. It takes weeks for the energy shock to seep into the supply chains, but it is coming. We'll be making a video about this soon . In 2022, when oil prices rose due to the war in Ukraine, the United States had a readily available resource.
The government opened the strategic oil reserves, flooding the market with supply and keeping prices stable for a while . It worked. It bought time. This product is no longer available. American strategic reserves are at their lowest level in decades. No government replenished them when the opportunity arose.
There is a line worth watching. In the last 55 years, every time American oil consumption exceeded 3% of GDP , the economy went into recession. The trigger is at approximately 120 US dollars per barrel. This time we are approaching this line without a buffer. There is a number that nobody is currently monitoring.
It is called true interest expenditure, the real cost of the state's fixed liabilities. These are expenses that cannot be reduced. Social security, public health, and interest on the national debt. In February, this figure reached 104% of American tax revenue. What does that mean in practice? The government is already spending more on its fixed commitments than it takes in through all taxes.
Every euro invested in defense, infrastructure, or education is money well spent. Fully. Think of it this way: imagine that your fixed mandatory expenses – rent, car loan , electricity bill – cost more than your entire salary. Everything you need to live goes towards your credit card. That's exactly what the budget situation of the United States looks like at the moment.
And that's before a recession even begins. When a recession occurs, tax revenues decrease. People earn less, entrepreneurs earn less, and capital gains decrease. But fixed commitments are not decreasing, they are increasing. And the countries in Europe are not far behind. This index is at 55% in Germany, and other countries like France and Italy are also close.
This means that the scope for maneuver is larger, but still small. In light of this, the government has three options. It can drastically cut spending, which would lead to a controlled collapse of the economy . It can raise taxes in a recessionary environment, which will accelerate the decline, or it can print money.
Money was printed in 1973, and again in 2008 . Money was printed in 2020. The choice is always the same, not because they want to, but because it is the only option that keeps the system running today. If you want to understand how to protect yourself before each wave of this cycle arrives and uncontrolled money printing begins, buy the book Free from Inflation in 30 Days.
Practical guide updated and with exclusive bonuses for everyone who buys now. The link is in the video description. Now we want to see what happens after the printing begins. When the central bank is forced to act, the money does not flow into all assets at the same time. It passes through the system in waves, and the sequence is always the same.
The first wave has already begun. Gold and commodities move first, even before an official announcement , because smart money does n't wait for confirmation. Central banks, sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors recognize the same mathematics we have presented here and buy before it becomes obvious.
Gold fell to €3800 in March and has already risen again to over €4000. That's not the behavior of someone getting out of gold. It is the behavior of someone who establishes a position before the cycle is confirmed. Wave 1 has been triggered. That doesn't mean it's over. History shows that gold still has a long way to go from here.
The signal has been given, and what follows always happens in the same order. The dollar is strong now, but this strength, although it may seem contradictory, is a sign of desperation. Because if oil is valued in dollars, every country in the world needs dollars to cover its energy costs. Countries that need dollars sell what they have – bonds, stocks, reserves – to raise liquid funds.
This increases demand and artificially keeps the dollar high. But this strength is temporary. Every dollar raised through the sale of American bonds worsens the US debt mathematics, increasing the pressure to print money. When the Fed announces an easing of monetary policy, the dollar reverses course.
That's the story. And when he reverses course, he reinforces everything that came before. Raw materials are becoming cheaper for European and Asian buyers . Demand is rising, and the inflation hidden in the costs is accelerating. A wave doesn't create the problem, it multiplies it. With inflation in flux and the dollar weakening, investors are beginning to seek assets that preserve value while generating income or providing productive benefits .
It's the wave of real assets. Real estate, raw material producers, infrastructure. The clearest example is the 1970s. Real estate has been one of the best asset classes of this decade. Not because the economy was doing well, but because the currency lost purchasing power . The property did not increase in value.
The euro, which they used for valuation, weakened. The same thing happened after 2008. The money started printing, the dollar gradually weakened, and the European real estate market rose for a whole decade. For companies that produce raw materials, the logic is even more direct. Revenues increase with inflation, while debts remain fixed in a currency that loses value.
This is a structural advantage built into the business model. The wave comes after the first two, but it does come. The latest wave affects risky assets. When the central bank actively injects liquidity and the dollar weakens, this surplus flows into speculative assets. Bitcoin is the most direct example.
In 2020, when all countries were printing trillions, Bitcoin rose from €5,500 to €50,000. It was no coincidence. It was liquidity that sought out the scarcest available asset. Ethereum followed the same logic. In monetary expansion cycles, digital assets with limited supply capture a disproportionately large share of the liquidity flow because they are the most difficult to produce in a world where everything else can be printed.
In previous cycles, those who invested in the right risky assets achieved the highest multiples of the common sequence. But they don't need to expose themselves to excessive risk. I still recommend that this asset make up 1 to 5% of your portfolio. The cycle is at its beginning. The four waves always follow the same sequence.
Commodities and gold first, then the weakening of the dollar, then real assets, and finally risky assets. Those who understand the sequence still have time to improve their position in each class before the next wave moves. If you enjoyed this video, subscribe to the channel, like the video and hype it.
In the coming months, once each wave has been confirmed , you will want to follow us. And if you want to understand why gold and silver have recently fallen so sharply , this video, which appears on the screen, will give you the complete answer. Just click on it. See you there.
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