저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 파월 발언이 실망스러워 증시 하락, 회복 속도가 늦어 수년 걸릴 것으로 전망. 기업 파산 물결 우려와 구조적 저성장('절약의 10년') 강조. 본인은 마진·신용대출을 모두 상환하고 현금 확보. 델타·카니발·Dave&Buster's 등 회복주의 파산 위험 경고, 10-Q 파산 언급 증가를 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here this video is very important if you currently invest or you're thinking about investing there's some big shifts happening in the market and i want you to be able to identify what's going on so you can prevent losing money and that's what i'm going to teach you in this video and show you some of my tricks for after all remember warren buffett has two famous rules rule number one don't lose money rule number two don't forget rule number one the stock market is sucking today or maybe it's a buying opportunity it's falling hard and when we see this much red it feels painful pretty much every single human being who bought snowflake when i said don't buy it at these crazy prices has now lost money now that doesn't mean it's a bad investment in the long run but with all that shared dilution coming stay away and a lot of other things are red so forget about snowflake for right now everything is bleeding today and there are two main reasons for this in this video i'm going to explain exactly what those two reasons are and they're different from what we've seen before see previously this month as just a quick recap i mentioned that there were three factors helping drive stocks lower number one a large adjustment in the tech sector driven by tesla and apple stock split euphoria wearing off people taking profits and realizing that valuations are very high number two a lack of a stimulus plan and number three the odds of what the stock market in general sees is a greater chance of a potential biden victory now on this last one that's not me taking political sides i'm just strictly looking at that from the point of view as an investor and the reason people believe that is because biden and harris both want to raise the corporate tax rate from the current 21 to between 28 to 35 so the stock market is pricing in some of that risk which by the way i will link an entire breakdown of biden versus trump's tax plan in the link below i've gone through that in complete detail and i think it's very useful for you to see but what are the big two changes now well for these two changes you're definitely gonna want to make sure you've got youhe chart i just showed you is a weeble chart i really enjoy uh their software for tracking my stocks all right so here's what's going on problem number uno yesterday i made a thorough video breaking down exactly what happened at the federal reserve that took like i i spent a lot of time breaking down the fed and anytime they have changes in their moods or even their and this sounds like weird like what are you a mood ring kevin anytime jerome powell changes his demeanor or he does something that's different from other times i pay attention and i read everything they put out maybe that's because i went to ucla and studied economics but anyway drone powell is frustrated at one point yesterday he basically threw up his hands because a program that they spent three months creating failed the main street lending program that was the main street lending program was a program that we thought would come in and be able to bail out companies like the marcus group and dave and busters and look at what's losing today the companies that did not get to be beneficiaries of the main street lending program marcus corp and dave and busters the federal reserve is failing and folks he's frustrated he's stuck and when the fed is stuck and they're like well there's more we can do but realistically things they're doing are failing that makes investors scared and yesterday jerome spooked investors he made us realize we're years away from our recovery we're years away from well from a real recovery not not the super v we've got going on right now and in some stocks anyway we're years away from inflation we're years away from going back to normal and yeah we need another stimulus package but honestly jerome powell says we've already priced in a stimulus package because the market is expecting a stimulus package most private forecasters his words are expecting it and many of the board members at the fed are expecting another stimulus package without that package oh yeah we're going to have lasting scars his words and permanent damage his words and we're still years away this comes at the same time as yelp reported that 60 of businesses who temporarily closed during the pandemic have permanently shut down now the good news in all this bad news is the fed doesn't see interest rates going up until at least but honestly if you watch my fed video yesterday which i really encourage you do they don't even give us a path for rates to go up after that and jerome bluntly said that we won't raise rates all of a sudden it's not like once we hit two percent whoops we're going to raise rates no they're not going to touch rates until the recovery is quote well underway which is a phrase he's used before but then he went even further because he was so frustrated and he put emphasis on this the way i'm about to do it he said we won't raise weight rates until we are far along that's his emphasis on far along yeah so this is in once that's good because it means lower borrowing costs but you know it's a double-edged sword because it means the economy's not on the solidest foundations as much as we thought i've been saying for probably about four months now that i think this is going to be the decade of frugality this isn't a one or two year thing this is a massive societal shift in the way we spend money and the way our economy works but there is a very severe risk during times of low rates over leveraging that's why over the past month and i'm going to talk about the big second problem that's going on in just a moment as well and how to identify some more trends regarding that so stay tuned the second thing here is pretty big as well but uh over the past month i just quickly quickly want to say i've been on debt payoff mode i talked to all my course members about this daily during our live streams when the market is open and i've been saying it on this channel i've been on debt payoff mode this morning i completely paid off all of my robinhood margin which i've kind of been working that down for a while as well as this morning i paid off all of my credit line debt and one of the reasons i've been doing that is just so that i have more debt available if i want it you know if the market falls i'm not in crazy amounts of margin or credit line debt but if the market does fall i also have the opportunity to pull that money out and go shopping again see for example here's my uh my robin hood and i'm really excited margin available is pretty much all of it that's available like i have zero margin outstanding which is super exciting to me i'm really happy about that now i do have some margin over at m1 finance but i'm also working on paying that down and i've been saying that for about six weeks to maybe even a couple months now mostly because well valuations are kind of high and it does make sense to you know eliminate risk this means i have zero credit card debt and zero credit line debt and zero business line of credit debt which if y'all remember watching me back in march and april that's literally the opposite of what i told you in march and april i'm like up take out all the debt you can get your hands on and go shopping now now's the time to shop i'm doing the opposite now okay but here's the big second massive issue right now and i want to teach you how to spot these trends that you might be investing in or big problems for companies that you might be investing in because yeah this this is a serious issue we are facing a potential tidal wave of bankruptcies and these are going to reverberate throughout the country and they're threatening to steal our money the new york times believes that this year will easily set a record for quote mega bankruptcies by companies with over a billion dollars in debt they're saying things like the really hurting companies have gone too far to be saved and the new york times further says that many businesses are just barely trying to get through another earnings season basically before the hammer will drop in my opinion this is because the uh executives are trying to show their investors we tried everything we could but we couldn't make it but they're giving us red flags in the meantime i'm gonna teach you how to see these red flags some of them you might be like oh come on the red flags are obvious now we watch some of these tricks okay they're seriously good tricks i mean some of these companies like we already knew were dying like we knew jcpenney come on like seriously like that wasn't a surprise right like when sears went was that a surprise no uh but you know some of these other ones you know the paper store bro uh brooks brothers okay maybe we saw that coming too uh but you know pier one neiman marcus roots true religion jose banks like some of these like i i certainly didn't think before this pandemic that those companies were gonna go uh but folks this is just the beginning the financial times ran a story saying u.s equity markets might be breaching record highs but the state of corporate distress in this country has never been worse large corporate bankruptcy filings are now running at a record pace and are set to surpass levels reached during the global financial crisis yeah the financial times warns that we are quote in the first innings of this bankruptcy cycle and folks many of these companies well the writing has been on the wall in fact let me teach you a prime example for how to determine if a company that you're investing in is starting to gear up to go towards bankruptcy and remember warren buffett's rule don't lose money now that doesn't mean that every single stock investment you make is going to be profitable i mean even warren buffett sold out a delta at like 23 after having bought it for 43 so he even loses money too right but your rule and rule some rules sometimes fail right but your goal is not to lose money so you want to have all of the competitive advantage that you possibly can to determine if a company is going bankrupt uh and so what i want to do is i want to show you exactly some things that i identify coming bankruptcy with beyond just like oh well duh of course when you say that company's name of course i thought they were going to go bankrupt right fine it's easy to say that but it's hard to identify exactly why but i'm going to show you some ways to kind of give you a cheat sheet on this so that way if you're investing in somewhat companies some of these recovery stocks delta carnival okay watch but first on june 9th i made a large investment into dave and busters as covet cases were declining and the pandemic basically seemed over i mean like we went to the beach and and like everybody was going out again like everything seemed normal again like the shutdowns were lifting everything seemed normal again and it's like okay cool where's leftover value like literally recovery stocks were booming and we were looking around going okay well what's left behind like what else hasn't caught up yet and where can we maybe invest so i invested into dave and busters but 17 days later 17 days after i made that investment and i even edited the title of that dave buster's video saying don't buy it and i put a little note that i pinned at the top saying bankruptcy risk don't buy in the pin section of the comments so i left the video up just to show like look i'm not like a prophet but i can identify changes and i'm going to react to those changes some people ask me too and the comments are like kevin how come we're on v11 now on the 1337 index like why can't you just leave it as one thing well because changes happen in the marketplace and you have to adapt to these changes that's to me that's what being an investor is uh but anyway listen to what i said just 17 days after i bought dave and busters and uh and i want you to like this is this is really important to know uh because you can identify this in your companies too okay here we go listen to this play so every day that goes by on these speculative companies bankruptcy risk goes up in fact take this for example dave and busters their last quarterly report in 2019 mentioned bankruptcy zero times that's good right zero mention of bankruptcy why would there be a mention of bankruptcy the first quarterly report because i actually read these things in 2020 mentioned bankruptcy three times the second quarterly report in 2020 mentioned bankruptcy 34 times yeah yeah like oops oops right that's a that's a huge huge shift that's just one example of how to determine okay well you know things are going into a little bit of um maybe the wrong direction here but it's not only that see i recommended don't keep buying into dave and busters but for those of us who held on you know we bought at some of us bought it 15 16 17 18 that's okay we had an opportunity to sell out in fact last week when the dave buster's earnings report came out i said okay i'm officially dumping all of my dave and buster stock and we were able to sell at about 1850 1825 so some of us who bought in at 8 or 19 maybe took a little bit of a haircut but but many of us didn't have to sell like super low it's not like we had to sell when it was way lower right but listen to what i said in the warning about a week ago and this isn't to pat myself on the back it's because i want you to identify what these trends are so we saw that bankruptcy you know mention went up dramatically which we'll talk about carnival and delta in just a moment but watch this this was just a week ago and watch what i was paying attention to just a week ago on dave and buster's here here we go oh they sounded so defeated right after this or the dave and busters wanted listen exactly one and these people were like chipper and excited and like we love this company we are weird like don't call us a covet company we're not a covet company we're here to stay like that was peloton okay dave and busters was like yeah yeah we we just don't know like i could just imagine their boardroom meeting uh how many months do we got left it's not good it's not good uh so anyway here's one this was a big one okay they said this is so bad for dave and busters they said quote society is now used to eating at home and watching tv at home we have no idea when they're gonna come back oops that's not good so for nicola i said for nicola i'm out like shark tank i'm out okay now i'm gonna fast forward about a minute so what we learned in that part there is uh oh their enthusiasm like the executives sound like crap they sound dead they sound like zombies you can listen to the earnings calls just type into google for whatever company you're interested in dave buster's investor relations delta investor relations listen to them and their demeanor from prior earnings calls to the current earnings call and and you will know because the executives know if the company's going to go bankrupt and you can read between the lines but watch this okay this was another good example and then we're going to get into delta carnival and some other takeaways here but this was another good example where i'm like this is bad this is bad okay it's stupid ideas listen to this and tell me what you think about this as i present this here just think about it this is the part that made me like fall out of my chair okay after them talking about how society is used to eating at home and watching stuff at home then they were asked by an analyst okay well what are you going to do about it and here's what they said well we're going to start investing into cloud computing games and we're going to launch a radio station you know for the stores uh we're gonna change the vibe of the stores we're gonna you know have like djs and and maybe we'll do like giveaways and and partnerships and stuff and i'm thinking myself y'all dead it's like those are terrible ideas that's not what dave and busters is i don't i don't go to dave and buster's for a dj you go anyway in that video i said that's it like that is so stupid i'm out and i said get out and look we already knew that dave and busters was a bankruptcy risk because of that that earnings filing showing all these increasing mentions we already knew that cheese or not cheesecake we already knew that chuck e cheese went bankrupt there was also another amusement park in april that went bankrupt uh that that did kind of like this game style thing i don't remember what the name was something with an a but anyway like there were some risk factors here couple those things with not seeing a main street lending program loan no mention of it we know the program's been failing that's not good okay so no lifeline for dave and busters and couple that with horrible executive enthusiasm and idiotic ideas i'm like no way and you heard me say it this company is dead i'm out well guess what happened today the company today said unless they get a bunch more debt which is also bad for an investor they're filing bankruptcy like they straight up said it today they're doing layoffs bankruptcy planning is now in full motion and they they need to take on more debt to survive no surprise the writing was on the wall and again like i know they're they're always the comments like oh you should have seen that coming it's the same thing as nicola look when nicola was like 85 dollars i made a video and i said uh-uh uh-uh like there's gonna be huge shared dilution this is bad this thing's gonna plummet and i got so much hate in the comments like oh what are you talking about like this is this is the next tesla or whatever i'm like fine just be careful so uh you know just gotta look at the signs and make your own decision is what i always recommend so uh here are the things to watch for number one a company mentioning bankruptcy a lot and i'm going to talk about carnival in delta in a sec a company mentioning bankruptcy a lot uh similar competitors going bankrupt the industry being on a downtrend the executive said themselves people are more used to eating at home now or being entertained at home number four the executives lose hope or have no plan or bailout lifelines that you thought were going to be able to come like main street lending don't end up coming through i mean we got five straight up things telling us those are things that could be bankruptcy warnings and those say don't don't don't invest see like ever since that earnings call i told lauren this i told my you know course members on the live streams in the mornings i mentioned it on the youtube channel somewhere as well i said look if these executives wanted to get real they would be going let's get a tent and do curbside pickup we're introducing new food lines that are easier to take for to go we're gonna have all the machines set up outside with hand sanitizers and we're going to do parking lot games uh you know we'll do the the hacky sac who cares whatever like the the cornhole like there's so many million things you could do you can put all the electronics outside or we'll open the doors and we'll have hepa filters inside didn't say any of that like that's what i'd be thinking if it was my business would they do nothing well obviously i recommended also two weeks ago reducing my stocks and recovery stocks like carnival delta cheesecake dave and busters and these other companies because just in general you know the trend isn't so great for recovery stocks right now everybody's just waiting and hoping and praying for that vaccine but there's still a lot of pain out there okay so this is this is what's been going on but let's take a quick look at carnival cruise lines carnival cruise lines i made a video like in april which is going to go bankrupt first carnival or delta yeah okay and and out of all the airlines in the cruise lines these two were my favorite but i sold out of the vast majority of the heavy recovery stocks that i had in may to buy tech uh which was nice because there was a nice run-up between may uh and august and then i finished selling off my uh my recovery holdings uh just about you know two to three weeks ago but here's the thing in the last quarterly report for carnival cruise lines from july 10th they mentioned bankruptcy 67 times their april report mentioned bankruptcy zero times so literally from april zero mentions to july 10th 67 mentions now carnival is also selling 18 cruise ships because of financial trouble and they're looking for more debt and again like some of this should be like a duh you don't wear a pandemic you can't go cruise line but you still look at the stock and you're like oh it's so juicy like i'll go get some of that value delta airlines folks okay in april they mentioned bankruptcy 14 times that's not that's not so much fine that was april in their last report it was june or july delta mentioned bankruptcy 77 times and they mentioned insolvency 38 times seriously folks this video is a warning for all of us if you're investing in recovery stocks i'm not saying sell i'm not going to tell you what to do but do look for those five red flags we talked about in this video take 30 minutes look at the earnings reports are they mentioning insolvency are they mentioning debt are they like taking on more debt are they mentioning uh bankruptcy in general are they saying stupid things on their earnings call is their enthusiasm like negative like are they like soul-sucking vampires the amount of debt these companies have to take on is atrocious and the world is not going to go back to normal at least not for the next one to two maybe even three years or more and that's why i call this the decade of frugality keep your debt low right now in fact i just want to prove it to you that i i'm literally doing that uh because you might not believe it otherwise but so i bought an apple computer for like an insane amount of money like one of those mac pros for like thirteen thousand eight hundred dollars and i returned it like i i broke my normal frugality and i'm like that's it we're investing in another computer uh and and i'm like that's okay it's okay yeah no look at this just to prove it to you i returned that computer uh not because i need the money but because i want the money so that way if more opportunities come up in stocks i have it and look here's my uh here's my apple card statement look at that apple store refund yesterday uh eight thousand three hundred dollars apple store refund uh there it is five thousand seven hundred ninety nine dollars uh and then the cool thing too is all the way at the bottom there you see that ladder thing see that's my life insurance that i apple pay with you should get that as well remember you can sign up in as little as five minutes uh but yeah seriously i even i even sold out or i i cancelled some reservations that i had some down payments on uh cars that are coming up not because i really want the cars but because i want to be a part of uh the growth for that to make youtube videos on it and to see if i want to invest in that company you know could it be uh you know think like rivien think nicola obviously nickel i forgot about nicola but but you know think about some of these newer companies or even the lucid air right like some of these companies uh they'll take your deposits and then you get into events or things like that earlier well i cancelled all those so i'm like just just give me my money i don't i don't really want to buy these cars anyway i love my tesla just give me my money so that way i can i can buy stocks if they continue to dip down in the meantime i'm just going to pay off margins so i'm more prepared so you know trust me this isn't out of fear it's out of realism for me remember in march and april you all know i went on a massive buying spree in stocks and that continued through may and june and july well now in the last couple months i've been more on debt payoff mode i'm doing the opposite and that's because i feel our fundamentals just aren't strong enough right now and i encourage you to be careful and frugal right n i know these stock videos don't always get the most views check the stock playlist i have a whole stock playlist just for stock videos and federal reserve videos uh so that way if you don't like some of the other content that might get suggested to you i suggest it to you you might appreciate just going to those playlists thank you so much we'll see you next time
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