저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
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결론: 가상화폐는 본질적 가치가 없는 투기 거품이며 규제 강화로 붕괴 중이고, 미래 화폐는 암호화폐가 아닌 중앙은행 디지털화폐(CBDC)이며, 인플레이션은 일시적이 아니라 임금-물가 악순환을 동반한 지속성 고인플레이션 및 1970년대식 스태그플레이션 위험이 크다. [가상화폐 평가] 비트코인 3만달러 하회 등 급변동은 펀더멘털 없는 투기와 FOMO 때문이다. 화폐의 3가지 기능(계산단위·지불수단·가치저장) 어느 것도 충족하지 못하고, 소득·사용처도 없어 자산으로도 볼 수 없다. 출처 및 근거: 비트코인은 4월 6.4만달러 고점 대비 50% 이상 하락; 도지코인은 농담으로 만들어졌다가 급등 후 붕괴. [미래 화폐] 대부분 중앙은행이 CBDC(디지털 유로·달러·위안)를 도입할 가능성이 높다. 이는 암호화폐 승리가 아니라 중앙집권적·감시형 시스템이며, 즉시 결제·무비용·안전성 면에서 암호화폐와 민간 결제(알리페이, 벤모, 페이팔)를 압도할 수 있다. [인플레이션] 인플레이션은 일시적이 아니라 지속적일 것이다. 막대한 통화·재정 부양, 2조달러 이상 저축에서 나오는 억눌린 수요, 공급 병목, 원자재·주택·식품 가격 급등, 기업의 임금 10% 이상 인상, 반도체 부족으로 인한 자동차 공장 셧다운과 중고차 가격 급등이 근거로 제시됐다. 달러 약세는 수입물가와 달러 표시 원자재 가격을 올린다. [연준 전망] 연준은 2%를 넘겨 오버슈팅을 용인하려 하며 기대인플레이션 고정 위험이 있다. 과도한 부채 때문에 긴축이 어려워 재정 우위(fiscal dominance) 함정에 빠져 있다. [고용·노동] 올해 말 산출 갭은 사라지지만 실업률은 여전히 자연실업률 이상이다. 육아 문제, 재택근무 선호, 실업급여·이전소득으로 노동 공급이 제약되어 임금 상승 압력이 지속되고 구조적 실업률도 높아질 것이다. 연방 최저임금 15달러가 확산 중이다. [1970년대식 스태그플레이션] 과거 두 차례의 음(-)의 공급 충격(1973 욤키푸르 전쟁, 1979 이란 혁명)처럼, 탈세계화·보호무역, 고령화, 미중 디커플링, 기후변화(캘리포니아 가뭄), 공급망 발칸화, 팬데믹, 소득 불평등 반발, 사이버 공격 등 9가지 공급 충격이 잠재성장률을 낮추고 생산비를 올린다. 느슨한 통화·재정과 결합하면 고인플레이션과 침체가 동시에 올 수 있다. [언급 종목·자산 방향] 가상화폐(비트코인·도지코인): 펀더멘털 없는 투기 거품으로 하락·붕괴 방향 부정적. 미국 금리·인플레이션 관련 직접 종목 언급 없음. [리스크] 규제 강화, 정책 부정합(재정 우위), 공급 충격, 사회·정치적 긴장. [출연자 전망] 가상화폐 장기 전망 부정적, 인플레이션 지속 및 스태그플레이션 위험 강조.
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um but i want to turn now to yahoo finances julia laroche for a conversation with the ceo of roubini macro associates nouriel roubini julia thank you so much kristen and nouriel roubini always great to have you back on the program i want to start with what's been happening in the cryptocurrency markets particularly bitcoin uh falling below 30 000 for the first time since january on on tuesday here and certainly well below its peak of more than 63 000 just back in april a lot's been going on in this space you've been pretty vocal in the area what do you make of what's transpired lately well that volatility is based on the fact that these uh cryptocurrencies are not really currencies they don't have any fundamental value they're driven by speculation by fomo and yes uh bitcoin almost reached 64 000 in april and i was down more than 50 percent and there are days in which it falls overnight uh 10 20 even 30 percent based on no fundamentals and then you have other things like dodge coin was created as a joke as a parody of cryptocurrencies and coins and he went through the roof and now is collapsing so this is a place where calling them currency is a misnomer they're not a unit of account they're not the scalable means of payment they're not the stable store of value they're not the single numerator calling them cryptocurrency it's really a joke because they're not used as a means of payment so and they're not even assets they don't have income they don't have use they don't have utility they're not the stable store of value so they're not currencies they're not assets they're just a speculative bubble that is now bursting as the regulators are cracking down and they're going to crack down more so safe to say you don't see a future when it comes to cryptocurrency there's nothing that might change your thesis uh nothing if anything the future is that most central banks over time are going to introduce central bank digital currencies uh electronic euro dollar rmb you name it but uh that's not a victory for crypto because these uh cinder bands your currencies are not going to be based on crypto nor on blockchain they're going to be centralized they're going to be in a system that is a private that is monitored that is permission and so on so they have nothing to do with crypto but they're going to have the advantage that compared to any cryptocurrency but also relative to other private payment system they're going to be instantaneous settling clearing they're going to be costless they're going to be safe and therefore if and when they're going to be introduced they're going to dominate not only cryptocurrencies there are no means of payments but eventually could be also tried to other traditional things like bank accounts or even some of the digital payment system like alipay which i pay venmo paypal and so on so the future of money is central bank digital currencies certainly not crypto currencies let's talk about uh some of the things happening here in the u.s from the conversations particularly around uh inflation kind of this debate of is this going to be transitory or more rampant we also had uh fed chair jay powell make some comments on the issue it seems here that he thinks inflation will subside but he doesn't know exactly when that will happen where do you stand on this issue and what kind of risk does it pose well among the side of those who believe that the rising inflation is not going to be temporary it's going to be more persistent we have a massive monetary and fiscal stimulus uh much bigger and more protracted than we had after the global financial crisis we have a bunch of supply bottlenecks we have pent up demand because there is at least two trillion dollars are for savings there are constraints to the labor supply there's been a sharp increase in commodity prices in home prices uh in food prices uh earning calls suggest that many firms are saying rising cost of their inputs many leading firms at corporation are increasing wages 10 percent or more because they cannot find workers amazon chipotle mcdonald there's a bottleneck in the supply of semiconductors is leading to factories of new cars being shut down and that's why also used car prices are spiking inflation expectations are rising the dollar is weakening that implies imported inflation and higher dollar price of commodities and the fed wants to overshoot two percent with the risk of the anchoring inflation expectation and our policies are becoming maybe rightly so pro-labor for workers for unions because there's been such a massive increase in income and wealth inequality that the 1.9 trillion dollar of dividend stimulus all going rightly so to workers unions to unemployed workers to partial employed workers to people who have been left behind so we're going to end up with high inflation in a wide range price spiral over time and the fed cannot tighten because there is so much debt in the system that if they're gonna try to tighten too soon uh the system is gonna crash so they're in a dead trap they're in a fiscal dominance i want to bring up something with you our colleague rick newman had he has a great column that just came out moments ago and i know we're waiting for the official gdp numbers but it seems you know the recoveries happen here in the us yet as you were kind of talking earlier about labor we haven't seen uh employment come close we still have fewer than 7.6 million fewer workers than we did before yet we have this recovery here in the u.s so how do you kind of think about that if our economy is kind of recovered but we still don't have folks coming back into the workforce or companies needing to fill these vacancies what do you make of the consequences there can we just kind of operate with fewer folks in the workplace well by the end of the year the output gap is going to disappear output is going to be back to potential while the unemployment rate is still above what people refer to as nairo but i think they're going to be a significant number of supply bottlenecks on the labor supply they're going to put upward pressure on wages we still have ongoing unemployment benefits that continue for a while uh we have a lot of child care and you know and even if a school were to reopen this is a fundamental problem unless as a result is going to limit the ability of women and care providers to rejoin the labor force many people prefer to work from home they don't want to go back to love the jobs that imply long commutes and the disruption have occurred implied that the new jobs of the future are not uh where they used to be but people cannot vary as much move as in the past so i think there'll be a whole bunch of friction in the labor market that implies that while output is a potential an employment is going to remain high but probably the structural unemployment rate is going to be higher and rightly so our fiscal policy are going to protect workers we're gonna give them more transfer payments more insurance of one sort or another and therefore people are gonna say i'm not gonna have a lousy hamburger flipping job that doesn't pay anything it doesn't give me any benefit it's a gig economy i'm gonna have transfer payments and other benefits coming from the government and i'm not gonna rejoin the labor force until things change and that's gonna put upper pressure on wages you know the federal minimum wage is already 15 that implies that then all federal contractors have to pay 15 but now a growing number of corporations are saying to get workers and keep them and retain them we have to pay them 15 per hour at the minimum probably much more than that so i think that the upper pressure on wages are going to imply this wage price spiral over time it's going to lead to higher inflation over time but do you do you think we'll see a 1970s style inflation event here or is that just uh two out there well you know in the 1970s what happened was not only that we had inflation high double digits but with stagflation inflation and recession because there were two negative supply shocks the old shock of 73 yom kippur war and 79 iranian revolution that implied that output fell potential and the cost went up with the price of all spiking this time around i think there'll be other negative supply shock that are going to hit the economy reduce potential growth increase the cost of production and like in the 70s with loose monitoring fiscal policy we're going to lead to stagflation high inflation and also recession if you think about these new supply shocks what they could be de-globalization protectionism and inward oriented policy restrict trading goods and services aging of population in advance economies and emerging markets you know 30 years ago china joining the global labor supply capaliton wages now there is aging in china in russia and korea and east asia and of course in us europe japan advanced economies they'll be decoupling between us and china on trade on technology this always going to also disrupt global supply chains the restriction to migration that kept elite on wages migration from south to north from emerging market u.s and europe is going to be restricted for political reason global climate change is going to also be a negative supply shock we're going to imply drought look what's happening in the west of the us in california there is not water one third are vegetables two thirds of our foods and nuts come from there and that's gonna be a shock to food prices not just in the middle east not just in sub-saharan africa even in the west of the united states we're going to see balkanization of global supply chains uh and reassuring of manufacturing from low cost china to us and europe we're going to see global pandemics implying that you want that policies of national self-reliance for key goods and services pharma product agriculture ppe rare earths and so on there'll be this backlash against income and wealth inequality is going to make through fiscal policy labor stronger and finally we have cyber attacks that are disrupting production one day the colonial pipeline another day is a beef processor every day there is another one that disrupts production or if firms have to then try to prevent those things that they spend hundreds of billions of dollars to upgrade their i.t system that's a not a huge cost so you have nine factors that are all reducing potential output increasing the cost of production and the price of goods and services and with easy monetary fiscal policy we're going to end up with speculation like the 70s over time well certainly some profound social and political implications as you were highlighting enoriel roubini professor of economics at nyu's stern school of business and chairman of roubini macro associates i thank you so much for joining me today
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