저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed는 7/30 금리인하 확률이 매우 낮고 9/17 인하 가능성은 약 69%로 본다. 고용은 헤드라인은 견조하나 민간고용 약세와 소비 둔화가 보인다. 관세로 인한 core goods 인플레가 존재한다. 실적시즌(MSFT, META, HOOD, SOFI)은 호재로 보며 AMD에 긍정적이다. 테슬라 단기 등락 콜과 AMD 160→173 목표를 제시했다. 전반적으로 소프트랜딩 기대와 강세 입장.
다듬은 글
Time to talk about the market, Jerome Powell, and what to expect for the next few weeks, especially our bullish catalyst. Bullish catalyst. First things first, we're going to give you a quick overview. We got to talk about uh Jerome Pal and Federal Reserve, what's going to happen next week. We've got big earnings next week as well.
And we've got jobs reports coming up. This may not be on your radar, but there are critical things to pay attention to within this. And all of it is going to be amplified by the fact that right now markets are actually getting more bullish on the 102 spread. Less risk, less volatility, more calm spread now under shock level of 0.5.
We've been up and down here since really liberation and so far no shock which is great news for markets. And the question now is can we keep going higher? Now, before we talk or answer that question, what we got to talk about is what my call was this morning in the alpha report. Remember, you can use a coupon code release the files at meetke.com.
Get lifetime access to all the courses and the alpha report. Uh, this was my call this morning. Keep in mind, if you join that alpha report, you you could have joined in 2018 and get access to this stuff. You pay once, you get lifetime access, you get all the courses, the trade alerts, uh, when we do them, you get the private live streams, the alpha report, the courses on stocks, real estate investing, do-it-yourself property management, social media, AI, and more Trumpomics lectures coming out now that the big beautiful bill is out, which is exciting.
But look at this call from this morning. This morning, we said uh my my we discussed these in the live stream while we talk about them. But I wrote down the note that we got to see if Tesla gets 318. How are we going to do that? As long as Tesla is 3:10 by 7 a.m. California time, 3:18 should be in the bag.
Could break through, but I think it'll break back down to 318 via rubber band. That was my call this morning. Uh, and I'm a big fan of kind of seeing, hey, like how did the calls work? Because, mind you, these calls come out in the pre-market. So, we don't know, you know, Tesla's at 3:07 in the pre-market.
So, what happened? We broke to 310 by 7 a.m. We went straight up to my 318 line. We actually rejected the 318 line for about 10 minutes or so. Then broke through and sure enough rubber banded right back down to 318, which is still a great day for Tesla, but it gives you some great trading insights. at at me.com.
That was this morning's report. Hopefully, we can do more just like that. So, what we now want to look at are uh the Fed and jobs. So, Donald Trump said this morning that when he talked to Jerome Powell, Jerome Powell told him privately that the economy is doing great and that Donald Trump hopes that because the economy is doing great, Jerome Powell is going to cut rates.
The problem is Donald Trump misunderstands why Jerome Powell would cut rates. Now, we got to give some credence to Donald Trump. He has nice things to say about Kevin. Kevin's somebody would ; Just saying. So, Donald Trump suggesting that Jerome Powell is really optimistic, that the economy is doing great.
To Donald Trump is a view that, oh, we're going to cut rates. He's wrong. The Fed is not going to cut rates. Barring some form of shock between now and next Wednesday, we are not going to get a rate cut next week. The odds of a rate cut are very, very low. We've got only about a 69% 69% chance of a rate cut in September, but the chance of an interest rate cut this Wednesday or 2.6%.
So very very low chance, which gives us a combined larger chance of a cut in September on September 17th. But as far as July 30th, no chance. Really, what you do is you set up for September rate cuts if you get weaker job reports. The problem with the jobs reports is nuance tells you there are problems but the headline is still doing really well.
And while we know a lot of the job numbers are going to get revised right now even JPAL says things are just doing good. That's not a case for cutting rates that's a case for keeping rates. Why? Because when we look at the core components of CPI and PPI, we actually see that tariff inflation is starting to affect tariff components, furniture, toys, autos, equipment, goods pricing is increasing.
If you remove autos, which are basically in deflation, partly because of an over supply and high interest rates of cars. If you remove autos, we have the highest core inflation in goods that we've seen in years. 5.5% annualized inflation which is very very high for core goods. So Jerome Powell was aware of this.
We look and we say the labor market is you know really impressing on the headline there. There are fires that are starting like glowing embers that are starting on the inflationary front. Yes, the argument is that they could be one time. The doves at the Fed like Waller who's applying for the job to basically be the next Fed chair.
His point of view is oh well you know the labor market could weaken more suddenly than we expect. So we have to be cautious of that. That's possible. But this is where BNP Parabus has an interesting argument. They say that we do not think that the Dove's argument that the market is on a precipice of deterioration for the jobs market is accurate.
He they actually say that because we're getting some clarity on tariffs, yes, they're higher than expected, but because we're getting some clarity on tariffs, we're seeing a stabilization in business and financing conditions as well as financial conditions. This could actually help us secure a soft landing now.
We I while I do think we are slowing and we've been slowing for quite a while, the concern is are we going to fall off a cliff, right? So, if we have kind of this slowing economy right here, it's like you're coming in for a landing with a plane. Always plane references, I know, private planes, pps, you know, you know me.
The goal is that you don't actually land. It's that you take off again, right? And then of course, worst case scenario, you hit the ground hard with a hard landing. You don't want that. We're basically here. We're kind of like at decision point where it's like, all right, like are we going to stabilize or we going to keep going?
The last jobs report showed us that only 15,000 jobs came from the private sector. That's from the non-farm payrolls report. 147,000 on the headline, though. That was great. You know, everybody looked at the 147 headline. We're like, "This is and the unemployment rate was going down potentially because of deportations or otherwise.
And the current estimates for July aren't bad. 111,000 jobs for July. These are great. These are overall great numbers and stable. Yes, there is underlying weakness though, which aligns with consumer spending declining. Uh consumer spending expected to just be 1.3% annualized in 2025. In addition to that, I want you to see this line right here, which I thought was the most critical.
I always in my opinion try to just like highlight the bottom lines and give you the best stuff. But I think this is very very interesting. They say that businesses have learned the lesson of past recessions that if they are overly proactive in laying off staff or reducing investment as the economy softens, it could be hard to basically grow again and resume investment and hire people when you're coming out of recession.
In other words, don't cut too much and just try to like hunker down the hatches. You know, cut batch whatever. Uh, you know, cut on the margin, but don't cut deeply to where you're hurting yourself to be able to get back to a growth environment. Because remember, the best time to grow a business is coming out of a recession because you basically only have up ahead of you.
That obviously leads to questions now because the stock market is, you know, doing pretty remarkable. Uh in fact you know if you look at the 30 minute here you could really see the uptrend on the cues over the last uh weeks or so really earnings are supporting this Google earnings the capex spend was great though Google stock just isn't performing as well as you would think it would service now gave up a lot of its gains despite its beats so there are some signs that the stock market is feeling a little toppy but that could be offset by some hopefully incredible earnings that we get next week next week we're going to be Microsoft, Meta, Robin Hood, SoFi.
We expect all of these probably to be really good next week. Like, you should see record numbers of trading volumes at Robin Hood, especially options and crypto. That's where they make most of their money. The vast majority of Robin Hood's money comes from options and crypto. Services at Microsoft and Meta and Capex spend should be bullish, which should be bullish for AMD and Nvidia as well.
Hood and SoFi have had a pretty big run. So, we'll see if they can, you know, keep it up, so to speak. Uh, but we'll also see Vertive, which will be another play for the uh, you know, capex side. Google expanded their capex. We expect to hear that as well from Meta and Microsoft, especially with how much money they're spending poaching developers.
You look at AMD, by the way, this was another call in our course member alpha report where I said, "Hey, we are we're about to trend up to 160 and if we can break the 160s, we're going to 173." I still believe this is likely, especially with earnings next week. Uh AMD is really catching up. It was trading for such a discount for so long.
Uh on top of that, uh keep in mind you have to be careful of the momentum trades. We were pitching open door for weeks before this. The reason why is because we saw this trend from 50 to 60 cents. I watch real estate stocks very very closely. And so we pitched this momentum and when the momentum started this Monday, I said the top here is either 350 or five.
That was back when it was in the $2. It rejected within 3 cents of five. Uh and then we expected a bleed from there, which is basically exactly what's happened. You got to be careful with some of these momentum names. I actually think we're going back as these bleed out. People are going to be going back to the fundamental trades.
AMD potentially has some upside there. So, I'd be watching that. Okay, that said, let's go to this right here. There's here's a great piece on over capacity risks coming from a Chinese double dip. This is basically a TS Lombard piece where they say there is so much excess supply from China for goods that as long as like we stabilize somewhere with tariffs, we could actually still see exported deflation from China, which could help us offset some of that higher inflation and CPI, PPI, which is great.
This is bullish. So, in other words, Chinese deflation bullish. Jobs so far still expected to be bullish. Nothing's cracked yet. Yes, there are underlying signs of weakness, but we are here. We're in a moment where we're either going to soft land and we're going to come out of slow growth and boom again and we'll boom for the next 10 years or some poop hits the fan and and panic strikes, you know, over the next 6 months.
Who knows? Uh and you go down. Hopefully not. If there's any weakness in jobs, that's when we'll get rapid uh uh rate cuts. That's when we might see a Trump stimulus check or tariff rebate check or whatever he'll call it. I want you to know this about house hack as well. With house hack, our goal is because you know we think rates will basically be peak this this winter.
So this winter our goal usually we go shopping between like September and November. That's when we like to go buy homes. So we'll be buying a lot of single family dwellings. We've got about $13 million in cash ready to deploy. So we're going to be going shopping with house act. At the same time we have our and this is a quiet thing.
I you know I don't want to like I don't want to pull like an Elon and like overhype something but we're going to launch an AI licensing platform for how we find wedge deals in markets that we're not in because you know real estate is like a $4.8 trillion industry and we can't do deals all across the country.
So we figure why not make SAS revenue with the product that we have anyway and use anyway in other markets. So, we think that'll be really big for investors and agents, some kind of monthly fee or whatever to to do your job for you in terms of making sure you're not missing deals. Uh, you also over time we want to build in the opportunity to see valuation estimates and ROI estimates which we think will be really good for renovations.
So, uh, some some really cool exciting things coming. But for us, part of like what's going on in in the economy as well, like are we going up or down? We want to be prepared. And so that's one of the reasons why we have you know 13 and sitting in cash uh you know out of about a $75 million asset company.
Uh we we sit here is is just as some what of a reserve like okay like what if we you know you get some bad reports between now and September great. If we don't fine like we're good either way. So we think that that comes to a head uh and so we'll know for what we want to exactly do with real estate.
But that's our current plan. Uh, and hey, a soft landing would be great for our AI plans. Like, we don't we want AI to keep killing it because it'd be great for house hack. Uh, but we'll be prepared either way what happens. And I think everybody should sort of look at it that way as well. Somebody here says 110k jobs is effing terrible.
Well, you know, BNP Parabus actually put together a note here. They said that their break even jobs that they think right now is 75 to 100. So usually like if you're under 100k you're recessionary because of revisions and and other aspects uh you know such as here break even pace refers to what is required to absorb new labor supply and keep unemployment rate steady right so in other words if you're under that the unemployment rate goes up it's recessionary plus revisions you got to consider so 110 is actually above that you know that's their estimate which you obviously you know could be wrong so with all that said make sure to use uh coupon code meet uh sorry release the files at meetcaven.com.
I got to go help Jack now. I promised I'd help him and uh appreciate you all. But overall very bullish. Hope you appreciate the alpha report readouts and uh we'll keep them coming to you. Appreciate y'all and we'll keep providing valu.
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