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there have been three Monumental changes to the market in the past four decades this has resulted in Monumental collapses but also presents a unique opportunity what are the sea changes and how can we make the most of this let's find out Howard marks is a renowned investor with several decades of experience under his belt and he points out this anomaly recently he talked about a recent shift in the stock market and economy that we can call a sea change a sea change is a major transformation of the environment a complete change in attitudes the first one was the fall of interest rates from 20 to almost zero between 1980 and 2020 which had very positive effects the second was the opening of investors Minds to what we call risk return analysis and before the 70s the job of the investor was to avoid risk after the seventh season was to intelligently take risk and after that was a big change and I think we may be on the doorstep of the third so what does the third sea change well you know since that's happening since since the fed's central banks around the world and treasury took a strong action to solve the global financial crisis in 0809 we have been living in a highly stimulated very positive Easy Money environment for roughly 14 years and a lot of people came into the business and also began to invest in those 14 years but not too many have a perspective on the period before the global financial crisis and they may think that the last 14 years were all right Howard marks doesn't think so I think it was the best imaginable period for borrowers and for asset owners and I don't think it's necessarily going to continue so do we characterize the past 14 years post-financial crisis as a bubble and now that it's popping we return to some sort of normalty or even a crash Harrod replied that it was a bubble most people take a bubble to mean irrational appreciation and the asset appreciation in that period was not terribly positive to truly appreciate Howard Marx's comments you first have to understand the relationship between interest rates and asset values asset values are just a fancy way of saying things people own as Investments think of stocks bonds and real estate as the common types of assets the average investor owns in their portfolio the value of an asset is based on the cash it will generate for you as interest rates go up the value of stocks increases even without adding a dollar of cash flow that's just how it works this is what Howard marks thinks will happen based on what he wrote in the memo he referenced in the interview the underlying causes of today's inflation it will probably Abate as relief inflated savings are spent and as Supply catches up with demand the FED appears likely to slow the pace of its interest rate increases thankfully Marx went on to shed some light about how investors should be approaching the sea change he said we've gone from the low return world of 2009 to a full return world and it may become more so in the near term investors can now potentially get solid returns from credit instruments meaning they no longer have to rely as heavily on riskier investments to achieve their overall return targets lenders and bargain hunters face much much better prospects in the changed environment than they did in 2009 through 2021 here is key pieces of advice from Howard marks himself one is that you should now buy bonds instead of purely just stocks if you invest your goal is to obviously Max the return your money generates for you typically investors will include both stocks and bonds in their portfolios however until very recently you almost had to invest entirely in the stock market in order to generate any return at all because interest rates were so low if you bought a 10-year Government Bond in the summer of 2020 your yield or interest rate was just 0.5 percent a year it is way below the inflation rate and it would be virtually impossible to build wealth at such a minuscule return however the yield on a 10-year Government Bond recently surpassed four percent the first time that this has happened in nearly 15 years well four percent is by no means an incredibly High return it is no more than eight times higher than the lows it hit in summer 2020 this brings us to the second advice you can take less risk and still generate good returns when interest rates are low investors tend to make more risky investments in the hopes of generating a return high enough to meet their goals this is why you saw things like Bitcoin and meme stocks become so popular in 2020 and 2021 for large institutional investors like Penn funds this meant investing in things like private Equity venture capital and real estate assets that are generally considered a little bit more risky than a vanilla portfolio of stocks and bonds thanks for watching this video don't forget to like share and subscribe to our YouTube channel so you don't miss out on any of our videos stay tuned
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