저자: 부자오빠 · 한국인
요약 보기
TQQQ는 3배 레버리지라 변동성이 크지만, 나스닥100 상위 대형주 중심이라 장기 투자 가치가 있다고 주장. 2022년 초 기준 올해 TQQQ -40%, QQQ -13%, SPY -8%였으나 과거 2~5년 수익률은 TQQQ가 압도적(5년 628%)이라 강조. 다만 원금 100% 손실 가능성을 언급하며 전 재산이 아닌 감당 가능한 범위 투자를 권고.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is "Buja Pamnida." Today, I’d like to talk about TQ for the first time in a while. The popularity of TQ these days is absolutely insane. It seems to be more popular than ever before, and many YouTubers are covering it. I, too, have felt the appeal of TQ and am investing in it. Looking at performance this year, TQ has dropped a massive 40%.
If you had invested 100 million won, that means 40 million won was lost in less than three months. You could say the volatility is extremely high. On the other hand, QQ is -13% and SPY is -8%. The difference is so huge that it is incomparable. Since TQQ is a three-fold investment compared to QQQ, the losses were almost three times greater.
So, what I want to say is not that you shouldn't invest in TQ because the losses are huge in a bear market; rather, I wanted to say that the reason many people, including myself, invest despite this is that it is that attractive. Taking this as a starting point, if we look at the longer term, the returns change to about 31% for SPY, 50% for QQ, and 86% for TQ this year.
Even considering the 40% plunge, colored glass is overwhelmingly the best on the 3rd floor. This is because there have been more bull markets than bear markets over the past two years. Since so much was earned during those bull markets, it remains a significant source of profit even though it has plummeted by 40% this year.
Now, let's look at a longer timeframe of 5 years. SPY is 85%, QQ 100 is 66%, and TQ is 628%. The reason is similar: there have been more bull markets than bear markets over the past 5 years. So, assuming that the underlying index, NAS DAW 102, experiences more bull markets than bear markets over the next 5 or 10 years, which one will rank best on the 3rd floor?
Naturally, it will be Peak Kwai. This is precisely why many people, including myself, invest in TQ. It is because we have a very strong belief that NAS DAW 102 should be prioritized in the future. No further explanation is needed. Just this one phrase ends the game. Those who invest without knowing that if a bull market like this year comes to smash, their value can be cut in half in an instant...
There are almost no people who invest with full resolve. Nevertheless, I can invest because I have the confidence that, looking at the long term, it will yield greater returns than any other stock. So, what exactly makes up TQ that so many people invest with such conviction in it? You will likely understand once you see this.
Since the TQ chart tracks QQ at 3x leverage, you can consider the underlying index to be exactly the same as QQ. Looking at the composition information for QQ, Apple accounts for 12.7%, Microsoft 10%, and probably 7.2%; these three stocks alone make up 30%. Furthermore, global companies like Tesla, VAM, BD, Google, Meta, Platforms, Broadcom, and Discord occupy the top spots in market capitalization, and these 10 stocks combined account for a whopping 52.4% of the weight.
Although it is called a "100-stock portfolio," you can consider that these 10 stocks effectively control more than half of the portfolio. Looking at the performance of top-ranked companies by market capitalization over the past 5 years, Tesla was the highest among them at 1,474%. Next, ND Diablo rose 780 by 1%, which is truly incredible.
Then Apple increased by 397%, Microsoft by 340%, Broadcom by 175%, and Google by nearly 200%. Among these, Syscon rose the least. And regarding Syscon... well, I don't think it's a matter of performance. Of course, the performance was able to turn out well because the results over the past five years of these ultra-blue stocks—which account for more than half of TQ's characteristic index—were so excellent.
You can consider the overall return of TQ to be virtually determined by how these stocks perform over the next five years. Let's look at the composition again. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, Google, Meta Platforms, Broadcom, C-Score—the top 10 stocks account for 52%, and the remaining 90 companies make up 40%.
If you look at the rest of the stocks, there isn't a single obscure company; they are all outstanding blue-chip firms. For example, PAC, C-Coupon, Costco, Adobe, Comcast, Intel, Qualcomm, AMD, Netflix, P-Mobile, and Texas Instruments. PayPal Holdings, Applied Materials, Starbucks, Micron Technology, Lam Research, SNL, Modern, Autodesk, and many others—the NASDAQ 100 is an index where all the world's top-tier blue-chip stocks are gathered.
Following this, the QQ Karroll tracks the NASDAQ 100 even more, and TQ Fibre is estimated to track it at 3x leverage. With so many top-tier stocks gathered here, can we say it is unconditionally dangerous simply because of high volatility? I do n't think so. Even if volatility is low, if the company is unremarkable, that actually poses a greater risk.
Conversely, no matter how high the volatility is, if the underlying index is solid like the NASDAQ 100, it cannot be considered that risky. There is also quite a lot of misconception that you must engage in swing trading or day trading due to the characteristics of the stock, but I don't agree with that.
I believe that to make truly big money, you should instead invest for the long term. High volatility means, in other words, that massive crashes occur frequently, so if you boldly increase your position during a crash, the next You can reap massive profits in a bull market. Conversely, in a bear market like the current one, losses can be substantial.
However, since there is a very high probability that it will eventually recover to its previous high over time, you wo n't suffer a loss unless you panic sell. This is because profits and losses are not guaranteed until the final sale. Ultimately, if you are confident that it will rise significantly in the distant future, I believe it is well worth long-term investment.
However, even so, it is true that the volatility and risk are extremely high, so I do not recommend investing a large proportion of your portfolio in it. Although the probability is extremely slim, if the market reaches a scale even larger than the dot-com bubble, there is a possibility of losing 100% of your principal.
I believe it is correct to always consider the worst-case scenario when investing, and you should only invest an amount that would ensure your livelihood would not be jeopardized even if you lost everything. TQ is like a double-edged sword. If things go really well, you could hit the jackpot like a lottery ticket; if you are really unlucky, you could face a 99% loss.
Even if it is 400 again, there is no guarantee that it will not fail. Apple It could fail. The US could fail. There are no materials in this world, and I don't think anything is 100% certain. However, statistically speaking, I believe the probability of it continuing to trend upward is much higher than the probability of it failing, so I am investing boldly.
I have clearly stated that it can fail, and it could also hit the jackpot. In truth, no one knows how things will turn out. You simply invest as much as you believe in. If you fully understand the risks and invest within a range you can handle, I believe this is a stock that, if done well, can turn your life around.
That is why I plan to break away from the prejudice that 3x leverage must be used for performance investing and try long-term investing. I hope those of you who have invested long-term like me will achieve great results. Well then, that is all for today's video. Thank you.
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