저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 2026년 상반기 AI·기술주 강세를 전망하며, 시장이 소프트웨어(팔란티어, MongoDB, Snowflake, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto 등)와 2·3차 파생 수혜주를 과소평가한다고 주장. 엔비디아는 중국 대비 수년 앞서 있고 AMD는 주요 플레이로 제시. 반면 구글은 시장이 버리고 있다고 언급. 에너지(전력)와 규제가 AI 확산의 핵심 제약이며 원자력이 유망. 미중 기술 경쟁에서 미국이 30년 만에 앞서 있다고 평가. 오픈AI·Anthropic·SpaceX 등 대형 비상장사 IPO 기대.
다듬은 글
Look at me. Obviously, it starts off at CBS where I think that Jensen's speech on that Monday is going to set the tone tone set right in terms of autonomous robotics, physical A.I.. But look, I think the reality is, is that despite all the haters and the bears and hibernation mood, it is going to be, I think, just a booming year for air and tech stocks, especially in the first half of the year.
I think investors are underestimating specifically on software like we talked about, not just Palantir, but MongoDB, Snowflake, all of the infrastructure plays Naby is and some of those others. It's about the derivative plays, the second, third, fourth derivatives, CrowdStrike, cybersecurity, Palo Alto.
And I think what we're going to see play out, Microsoft or Google. Look, I think we sit here a year from now or Google is the name that I think investors are just throwing in the garbage. That's the one I think investors are getting. Why so? Because it's the view A. Taken on that open air is not going to be good for their bill.
Look, if you look at any open air related tech stock from AMD to Tim, you know, to Microsoft to to Oracle, those stocks have sold off significantly. And I think the reality is this is an AI revolution where you're in we talk about the AB parties. 1030 10:45 p.m. party goes to 4 a.m. starting 9 p.m. and open air is going to play a huge role in that and the infrastructure bill that said to me, it's like I think like tech stocks, they're up 25%, really down 25 and 26.
But I mean, is that the big names like in Vedere? Because I think to myself, lots of competition out there for them. First of all, supply chain challenges continue. But you've also got Google and Amazon, big competitors who are playing catch up with Nvidia. Can can it really hold on to that momentum in 2020?
Said there's only one Godfather Bay. He's wearing a black leather jacket and then Jensen and I think they are five years ahead of any other competitor that's why look for them like even their third best chip restricted each to hundreds right in China despite whatever the pilot Baba JD ten, said, they want those chips because it comes down to like they are so many years ahead of competition.
I think book amd that's going to be a major play that we see playing out. And then I think you start to look at like what Google's doing, what Microsoft is doing in China in this chip world. It's in the air arms race. But here's the deal. For the first time in 30 years, U.S. is ahead of China when it comes attack.
How I think that that that is I think that's really like the most important thing here is that it's getting lost in the sauce. I feel what you just said. What is because it for so many times like I in Taiwan 18 hours seeing like factory fabs then land in Newark airport this and fist fight Dunkin Donuts and you're like wow we are like so behind now Yeah switched so is opening I going to go public in 2026 and is that going to be a seminal event or I think early 27.
Okay. They go they could file maybe by the way 26 but, but I think that's the thing. Like Space X, you think about anthropic, you think about open air. I think the reality is, is that, you know, people talk about bubble. Some of the best companies that haven't even gone public yet. And I think there's there's a supply demand for big growth names.
And that's why to me I think investors that are seeing it's a bubble tech's done they're doing it from the 25th floor of a New York City office building or Metro North. Right. I mean, the reality is like for someone like me that sees it go boy sees that the demand, the supply is 12 to 1 for video chips today in Asia.
But here's the question Is there enough energy out there to meet that supply? Because that's one of the big the biggest challenge going forward. That's well, if you think the thing to me that like if you say what could spoil a I party right now about demand for that that's revolution is not about the use cases.
It's energy and regulation and energy. That's why like you know you look what's happened nuclear you saw the to deal with you know obviously Trump media you saw what Google is doing in terms of them buying their own energy company. I mean, yeah, energy's the biggest restriction in the US, but I continue to believe a nuclear is going to be the play there.
See Yes, it's 200 250 300,000 people will descend on Vegas for it. It's been going there for 40 years. I've been going to this thing. This one feels like. We might get like a seminal announcement coming out of this, whether it's a product service, an investment, a deal, it just feels like maybe this.
Yes, might be something where something really material pops out of. Yeah, I, I, they're good for so many years. CBS is like, Oh, great. A refrigerator that talks to a cool drone. Now it's really become central to that. When you look at the air revolution, I think when you talk about chips, when you look what's come out aimed I think in video is really going to double down on robotics.
I think Quantum is another one. If you go back a year ago, that's where Jensen was sort of qualms like ten, 15 years where Comstock showed up. I actually think there's going to be a lot more bullish when it comes to Quantum. And look, I know I have two companies I know that are going there. They're not officially there.
Yeah. Why they go in there. They're not going there to, you know, to go to the Cosmo or go to the wind for dinner. They're going because they're looking, they're looking for acquisition. I kind of feel like. During CES. If I talk to a CEO, I think my first questions can be, Why are you not in Vegas?
Like, I don't care what business you're in. I'm in the paper touched by the technology. Yeah, but to Paul's point, it's this isn't just about. Quick consumer gadget, 200 inch televisions that somehow talk to you. Now it's really become central to where the tech now they met the Chinese presence there in terms of explained by everyone else.
You think about autonomous robotics and that's why, like, I think the one thing I'd like to stress to anyone listening is like, this air is not just about what Mao do you use. We are now. This is the year Apple goes deep, dives into deep and the pool when it comes to on the consumer side, we're now going to hit the next level of the AI revolution.
But this is in 1996 moment now in 1999, 2000 bubble moment. Yes, thankfully. Do we do we expect a big China presence at this thing, given the relationship right now between the US and China? If you're a China tech company, you have to come here. I mean, I think like when I think about like the prisons last year, that was already significant.
This year it is it's booming because for them, okay, like they're not going to be able to sell into the US we currently but this for them to flex to muscles on the global stage in terms of them. So in South America, Europe, Australia I mean that is the world descends upon we're right because it when you this is the world event but the pause point I think if you're not there it's almost like being in a wedding at a table by the kitchen with random people instead of being like kind of like Paul is always like front and center, like he's at the cool table.
Matt Campbell named 17th Penn State head football coach. What do you think? Look, I think, Campbell, he is the right guy for Penn State. I mean, it's not just that the staff he's going to bring in, he's he knows how to recruit. I think he's the magic formula. I think now we'll get Dan Tomlin from USC as a defensive coordinator.
This is going to build the stage to what Ivy League people will say next year. God to rebuild near. I disagree. I think this gets us back into the playoffs next year and it goes back to the dream for Natty in 27 or 28.
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