저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아 중국 수출 규제 완화 필요성을 강조하며 AI 인프라 수요가 초기 단계라고 주장. 엔비디아는 2026년 저평가, 주가 50~75 전망. 에너지(원전·클린에너지)가 AI 확장의 최대 제약이며 빅테크의 에너지 수직계열화 확대를 예상. 테슬라는 로보택시 확대(2026년)를 근거로 강세 전망, 강세 시 시총 3조 달러 언급.
다듬은 글
We talk about export controls every day in Washington. You're on the other end of this, of course, looking at Nvidia's balance sheet and forecasts, trying to figure out how to factor this in. How significant is this to crack back into the Chinese market? Look, there's one ship in the world fueling the air revolution and that's in Libya.
And you really need to give them access to the China market. I think that's the understanding that that's been well understood now in the Beltway. It's important because the reality is, we're told 20 billion a year. And if they don't allow them to sell on to China, that just gives Huawei and China competition the ability to narrow the gap.
And that's what Jensen continues to talk. I think that that message is definitely being heard. Is it possible for a Dan Ives to do channel checks when it comes to China? Do we know that there are buyers on the other end? Yeah. I mean, obviously we spent a lot of time in Asia, in China. Look, they they wanted video chips.
The reality is, would you want Peter Luger steak or would you want White Castle? And the reality is they they want the one ship in the world fueling the revolution. And that guy's wearing a black leather jacket and his name is Denton. And, well, there's competition, quality and others. Narrowing the gap.
But big tech in China. There's one chip they want. It's in Nvidia. Well, it's really interesting because Michael Burry, I think, is ready to meet you at White Castle. He was out once again with a knock on in Virginia today, suggesting that energy efficiencies will make their highest power chips less useful in the immediate term.
So as we throw all these data centers back together with an eye on Broadcom and its TPS, is there some truth to this? Look, I mean, if we go back a month ago, demand the supply is 12 to 1 for embedded chips. So it's going to continue to be approved me in terms of the air revolution. But I mean, we still believe this is early digital.
About 3 to 4 trillion is going to be spent next four years. There's others. Look, we're bullish on Google bullish and the others are going to get into this arms or in the chip side. Right now, there's one chip at the top of that mountain and it's in videos world and everyone else is paying rent. It's invidious worlds.
Is this stock then in your view, with the earnings growth, revenue growth that we've seen in the most recent forecast, is this stock cheaper than it was a year ago? Yeah, I mean, like to 50 to 75 is where I see it. And in 2026 it's a cheap stock. And I think it's one where investors sometimes, you know, there's a lot of noise in this and you got to separate out what demand looks like.
And we're in the third inning of a nine inning in terms of a revolution. And it's not just about video, it's about Microsoft, it's about Google, it's about power here. It's there in the infrastructure. And there is no there's given over. I mean, that this is where it's all heading now, even when you look at things like nuclear, right, in terms of from a from a perspective from an energy just starting.
Well, I'm glad you mentioned energy, because I talked about this today with Joseph Micah at sea, ISIS, and he talks about energy with relation to air. And we talked about this deal today, but also just the rampant growth in data center construction in this country and the potential for us to keep bumping into the ceiling, the capacity ceiling when it comes to things like water and, yes, energy.
Dan, here's what he said. I think it's a little bit like a tale of Two Cities. It's the best of times. It's the worst of times. Wow. Looking back at 2025, it's been a remarkable year of continued acceleration. When we think about the build out that we expect to see over the next five years, that's going to continue to happen.
All of the challenges that you raise power, availability, water, use, a general sense that society's not getting the benefits of the data center buildout. Those are going to almost probably get worse. Could get worse. Dan Ives When you throw the NIMBY log on the fire, you consider the capacity constraints when it comes to cooling.
Yes, water and also energy. Whether or not we're all going to have a small nuclear reactor in our backyard at some point, what kind of volatility do investors need to brace for knowing that this can't grow in a straight line? Yeah, no, look, I think for the first time in 30 years, the US has had a China when it comes to technology.
Energy is obviously the constrains of the to nuclear deal. You see what's happening, you know, in terms of what we see across all types of energy, not just nuclear, solar and grid but I think continue to be nuclear is going to be the play good governance over trying to do in terms of stopgap. Look, the reality is that is going to be the focus to make sure in this revolution that the US is ahead.
And I believe this is going to be a time of innovation. But no doubt the biggest constraint in the air revolution is energy. Yeah. Alphabet today agreeing to buy clean energy developer Intersect Power. I know that's not a big priority for the administration right now, Dan, but this is a $5 billion deal.
To what extent will clean energy provide the next leg? I think it's all about clean energy. I mean, we've talked about it. You know, this is just the start of big tech owning more and more energy and they're going to build it out vertically. I mean, that's that's the arms race that's playing. You'll see openai.
You'll see other tech players, Microsoft and others, because that is where we're going in terms of from an energy perspective. And I continue urge you to see more deals like this. We've talked about nuclear and others. That's where I continue to think it heads. Really interesting. Dan, I've got to ask you about the Tesla news while you're with us.
Headlines on the terminal that Tesla engineers warned Elon Musk about the door handles, the electronic door handles, pushing him to consider making them purely mechanical for the model three sedan in the name of safety. He worked pushed back because he value the simplicity of push button controls. How much of a liability is the story for the company?
I mean, look, in my view, Tesla, you have 10 million vehicles that will be on the road by next year in terms of made. I think the success speaks for itself. Look, I'm not saying that there's not issues and these are all things that are very important to sort of, you know, understand and to make sure it's better and better.
But I think right now for Tesla and for Musk, I mean, also the future is about Thomas and robotics. And I think that's what investors are all focused on. And this is going to be a battleground stock. It will continue to be. But we've talked about, we think 3 trillion in a bull case where we could see this given the autonomous chapters now here.
Hmm. Fascinating, as always. With regard to autonomous, I've only got a minute left. Dan, what's the next stop on the road for Tesla? Most people have only seen reports of robotic cars, whether it's Waymo or Tesla's version on this. When does this go mainstream? Oh, I think 2026. I mean, we know we've been cars in Austin where everything they're building out the Geofence area and think going to have 30 cities the Robotaxi 2026 and this is going to be, I think in probably the most important year ever for Tesla, given autonomous, true autonomous and robotaxis.
And I think you're going to see more and more that are, you know, in a robotaxi in the next year. You are at the point where you prefer a driverless car. Dan Ives I do, I do. I mean, the point is, is that I think I think it's one I've been waymo's. I've been robotaxis. I'm a big fan of full self-driving on Tesla.
I love I think that's where this is described. You have an eight year old today. They're not going to be a driver's license when they're 16. Yeah, incredible. I like that idea.
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