저자: MrMTrades · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론·SK하이닉스 급락은 펀더멘털이 아닌 한국 레버리지 ETF 청산과 이익 전망 하향(장기계약 가격 효과)에 따른 일시적 노이즈라고 주장. UBS는 DRAM 가격 3분기 +32%, 2027 수요 +36.2% vs 공급 +19.3%로 2028년까지 부족 전망, Citi는 내년 DRAM 가격 거의 3배 전망. 마이크론 분기 매출 415억달러(+346%), 다음 분기 가이던스 500억달러, 목표가 1,400~1,560달러 제시. SK하이닉스는 4거래일 반등을 두고 신중 필요하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
If you watched the memory stocks yesterday and didn't experience a mild panic attack, then you're a stronger person than most people on Wall Street right now, because yesterday was a tough day. Micron fell 5%, SK Hynix 9% on its second day of trading. Sandisk was simply crushed, falling 12%, and the headlines were frightening.
"A vicious cycle." That's a phrase Bloomberg has been spreading: a vicious cycle in the chip market. I'm sitting here watching all this and thinking, "Okay, wait a minute, something's not right here." The numbers I see behind the scenes from UBS do not match at all what the price dynamics are telling us.
And I mean, they're not even close. Later in this video, I'm going to show you exactly what I mean, because there's one specific metric that will make you look at this whole sell-off in a completely different way when you see it. But first, we need to discuss what actually happened that week, because it was one of the most eventful weeks for memory stocks that I have ever seen.
On Wednesday, Micron announced that it is increasing its investment in the U.S. to more than $250 billion by 2035. They poured the first concrete for a megafactory in New York ahead of schedule, and the stock soared 8% in a day. Perfect.
Then on Thursday, SK Hynix went public on the Nasdaq. This wasn't just any IPO. It was the largest foreign IPO in the history of the US stock market. $26.5 billion raised in one day. Demand exceeded supply seven times over, meaning for every available share there were seven buyers competing for it. And their CEO went on Bloomberg on the day of the listing and said that the shortage of memory chips could continue beyond 2030.
So on Wednesday, everything was amazing. On Thursday, things got even more amazing. And then Monday came and ruined the whole party, like that friend who shows up uninvited and knocks over the drinks table.
Now the most interesting part, and this is the part I want you to focus on, because this is what sets us apart from all the other channels talking about this right now.
Most channels saw yesterday's headlines and did exactly what you would expect. They read you the article and said, "Oh no. Chip stocks are falling, vicious circle, bear market." And they went further. We don't do that here. We actually read the research behind these headlines. And when you read the real studies, you realize that the sell-off had nothing to do with whether these companies were making money.
There were three reasons. South Korean retail investors had invested heavily in SK Hynix leveraged ETFs, using record amounts of borrowed funds. Those products "exploded" and triggered forced sales that dragged the entire Korean market down by 9%. It literally caused a trading halt, and this panic spread to the Nasdaq.
In addition, a Korean brokerage firm cut SK Hynix's earnings forecasts by about 9%, which sounds terrible until you read why. And that's the part that made me laugh, because it was so twisted. They lowered the forecast because SK Hynix signed long-term contracts to supply HBM chips at prices below current market prices.
On paper, the average selling price looks lower, but think about what that actually means. It's like your friend who signed a 10-year fixed-rate lease for an apartment, and someone says, "Oh no, his rental income is below market." Aha. Because he has a guaranteed tenant for decades. This is not a problem. This is called "being smart." But the headlines only say, "Profits down." And everyone is panicking, which is why this sell-off is a gift for those who pay attention to real data.
So here's what I'm getting at. This is the part of the video you should see. UBS just raised its DRAM price forecast, and when I give you the numbers, you'll understand why I'm not at all worried about one "red" day.
They now expect DRAM contract prices to increase by 32% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. Their previous forecast was 17%. They almost doubled it. And in the fourth quarter, they expect another 18%, compared to the previously projected 12%. But that's not even the main number. The main number is this.
UBS predicts that DRAM demand will grow by 36.2% in 2027. Supply will increase by only 19.3%. That's a 17% gap. The largest DRAM market shortage in history. And they expect the deficit to last until at least 2028. So, to make sure we're all on the same page: the SK Hynix CEO talks about deficits after 2030. UBS sees a deficit at least until 2028. Citi expects DRAM prices to nearly triple next year. And people are panicking and selling stocks because some leveraged ETFs in South Korea "exploded." Sorry, but that's like canceling a vacation because it rained on Tuesday. The weather hasn't changed. The outlook for this industry remains favorable for many years to come.
If you watched my last video—and if not, be sure to watch it, because I broke down the whole SK Hynix vs. Micron comparison and explained the reasons for the sell-off even before the rebound happened—I said the sell-off was structural, not fundamental. And what happened? The stock bounced off the $900 level exactly as the data suggested.
Micron shares rose 5% today. Citi just added them to its 90-day watch list due to expected upside, with a price target of $1,400. And just to remind you what this company accomplished last quarter, in case you forgot: revenue of $41.5 billion, annual growth of 346%, gross margin of 84.9%. For a memory company five years ago, this figure would have seemed like a typo.
This is just madness. They gave a forecast for the next quarter of $50 billion, which is $7 billion higher than Wall Street expectations. There are $22 billion in committed customer commitments, plus new deals with Ford, GM, and Anthropic. The Wall Street consensus is a "strong buy" with targets ranging from $1,400 to $1,560. The stock is currently trading at 970. The people whose job it is to do this every day see potential for 50-60% growth right now.
Now a few words about SK Hynix, because I know what you're going to ask. Today, the company is recovering. The stock is up about 20%, but you have to understand that we only have data for four trading days. You need to be very careful. Trading based on four daily candles is not analysis. This is fortune telling with an open Bloomberg terminal. Let them form a base. The deficit will not end this year or next. The company's CEO himself said it could last for decades. So you have time.
Here is the summary. The memory market is experiencing the most severe shortage in the history of this industry. The sell-off was just noise, a result of liquidating leveraged positions and taking profits. The fundamentals have not changed in any way. Micron is showing its best results in the company's 47-year history, but the price is still 25% below its highs.
If such detailed analysis is useful to you—and I mean really useful, not just reading headlines from Google five minutes before recording—then that's exactly what this channel is for. We dig deeper. We take UBS reports, Citi analyst notes, and Bloomberg CEO interviews and break them down into simple language so you can understand what's going on and make your own decisions. That's what the forecasting process is all about. So subscribe to the channel and hit the bell, because in a market that moves this fast, you don't want to be the one seeing Monday's analysis on Thursday. This is how you end up being late for everything.
Now, write "memory" in the comments if you want more analyses like this. This is not financial advice, just educational content. Always do your own research and manage your own risks. See you in the next video. See you later.
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