저자: Ale · 외국인
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결론: 발표자는 캐시 우드의 Shopify·Roku 매수와 Coinbase 매도를 분석하며, 두 종목은 투기성이 커 보유하지 않겠다고 밝히고 장기 투자자에게는 더 안정적 대안이 낫다고 주장한다. Shopify(SHOP): 아크 이노베이션 ETF에서 12번째 보유종목(비중 3% 이상, 약 900만 주), 최근 100만 주 이상 추가 매수. 온라인 쇼핑 플랫폼으로 구독료 기반 반복 매출, 매출 성장률 최대 50% 이상, 최근 흑자 전환 및 잉여현금흐름 수억 달러. Shopify 밸류에이션: PER 수백 배, 업종 대비 높은 프리미엄, PS 약 10배. 과거 1년 전 대비 낮아졌으나 여전히 부담. 주가는 고점 대비 80% 이상 하락, 인력 10% 이상 감원. Shopify 리스크: WooCommerce(점유율 26% vs Shopify 23%), Wix, Squarespace 경쟁 심화, Amazon·Meta·Google의 간접 경쟁이 가격 압박과 마진 훼손 우려. 발표자는 장기 보유는 꺼리고 단기 투기성 거래로만 고려. Roku(ROKU): ETF 3번째 큰 비중(약 8%, 약 7억 달러, 850만 주 이상), 최근 대량 매수. 스마트TV OS 및 스트리밍 플랫폼, 무료 광고 기반 채널 8,000만 명 이상 이용자, 미국 연결TV 시청자 약 3분의 1. Roku 리스크: 진입장벽 낮고 Tizen(삼성), webOS(LG), 아마존, 구글, 애플 등과 경쟁. 광고형 스트리밍 점유율 약 17%에 Peacock, Pluto 등 추격. 발표자는 PS 약 3배로 저평가이나 경쟁 과열을 이유로 장기 보유 비선호, 경기 안정 시 단기 스윙 매매는 고려 가능. Coinbase(COIN): 캐시 우드가 대량 매수 후 어제 100만 주 이상 매도(보유 약 500만 주, 비중 약 3%). 암호화폐 거래소 상위권이나 시장 침체로 주가 80% 이상 하락, 2025년 기준 EPS 대폭 감소 예상으로 선행 PER 산출 불가, 후행 PER 약 6, PS 약 2. Coinbase 분석: 발표자는 캐시 우드의 매도가 의외라고 평가하며 암호화폐 약세 신호일 수 있다고 추측. 거래소 경쟁, PayPal·Visa·Robinhood 등 간접 경쟁 증가를 우려. 발표자는 비트코인·이더리움 등 소액 보유로 충분하다고 판단. 결론 및 출연자 입장: 발표자는 캐시 우드를 여전히 존경하나 이번 종목들은 선호하지 않으며, 장기·균형 투자 관점에서 더 안정적이고 수익성 높은 대형주가 낫다고 봄. 구체적 목표가 제시 없음.
다듬은 글
kathy wood who is one of my favorite investors in the market just made two very large purchases in two different stocks and sold another so in today's video i'm gonna give my opinion on each one of them let you know if i'd consider buying any of them myself too let's go what's up everyone my name is ale welcome back to my world of socks let's go ahead and start by taking a look at those two big purchases that she made i'll let you know if i'd consider buying either of these two stocks myself too now this is for her flagship arc innovation etf and the first of those two purchases was shopify ticker symbol shop which she's been buying a lot of in recent months and has been increasing her purchases over that time with the biggest of those coming yesterday at over a million new shares purchased this now leaves shopify as her 12th largest holding at over 3 percent of the etf and over 9 million shares that are being held now you guys probably know shopify because it's a very popular stock in the market i often get comments about it but just a really quick intro into them in case you don't know they are one of the most widely used online shopping platform providers they basically provide all sorts of tools and services to mostly small and medium-sized businesses to help them set up and run their entire online shopping infrastructure and then shopify is able to collect a subscription fee for that that usually ranges from around thirty dollars to as much as a few hundred dollars per month which is something that allows shopify to collect recurring revenue over time and that can really snowball by large amounts over time as they accumulate more and more customers and they've been seeing so much success with it lately that they've even been able to gain the business of some giant corporations like heineken cores staples and general mills just to name a few as a result they've been able to put up some tremendous growth rates over the years with sales soaring by over 50 percent at times plus they've recently become profitable with free cash flow growing by or growing to hundreds of millions of dollars per year now the problem for me though has always been the super high valuation and more importantly the rising competition as it stands shopify trades for p e ratios that are sometimes in the hundreds while most of the time trading for hundreds of percents more expensive than the rest of the sector and granted they only recently became profitable so you could definitely argue that over time that valuation will come down very quickly right now is a struggling time with the economy and everything so profits are being hurt that raises evaluation it'll definitely come down i would agree with that argument you know very much so but even just like on a sales basis their ps ratio still trades at about 10 which for me is actually higher than some of my favorite spec stocks in the market but you know it should be noted that that valuation was more than five times higher just about a year ago when internet stocks were skyrocketing because of the pandemic since then though the internet tech bubble in the market has essentially burst sending shopify stock crashing by over 80 percent from its highs which is a monumental crash and considering that kathy has been a long time holder of the stock i can definitely understand why she may see this as a great buying opportunity which i don't necessarily disagree with her but investors seem to be worried about the macro economy right now that is at risk of going into recession and has even caused shopify to lay off more than 10 percent of their workforce this last quarter in order to support their profitability as much as possible which by the way that profitability took heavy damage in this quarter too as they reported a net loss that was even lower than the already super low estimates from analysts but as if that wasn't enough to worry about my personal biggest issue with shopify has always been that they're just facing too much competition from strong players in the market like for example woocommerce who offers a free version of their platform which has helped them gain more market share than shopify at 26 versus 23 plus there's growing pressure from wicks square pace and square square space and you can even uh argue that there's some giant goliaths out there that are kind of competing indirectly too like for example amazon meta and google who really kind of host merchants on their online shopping or their social media platforms and i just think that over time all of that competition that's going to continue to put pricing pressure on shopify and i think that could hurt not only their market share but also their margins again i have to stress that i actually really like shopify and i think it's an incredibly well run company and i could absolutely understand why investors would want to pick up the stock after it crashes by so much over an 80 percent drop in hopes that it does recover and they make a very nice profit on it i could definitely see that happening if the economy was to stabilize soon but as a long-term investor i just worry too much about their competition and even after the crash valuation is still a bit rich so i just can't really pick this one up because i do feel that they're still in that speculation territory of the market and i just own way too many spec stocks at the moment i don't really want to pick up another i like shopify i wish i could own it but i own too many spec stocks as it is and i just feel that shopify would give me a little bit too much of a headache trying to keep track of it and dealing with all of its volatility i just think there's more stable stocks out there that i'd rather invest my money in long term anyway that's just my thoughts on shopify what about the second stock that she purchased well this one is actually a huge position in her portfolio in fact it's the third largest stock in the entire etf and that stock would be roku ticker symbol roku at almost eight percent of the etf and worth almost 700 million dollars at over eight and a half million shares now just like shopify kathy has also been buying this one heavily in recent months with the latest purchase being the largest at over 400 000 shares now this is of course the very large video streaming company that sells their standalone roku devices to turn a regular tv into a smart one that connects to the internet but more commonly they now just kind of integrate their operating system right into smart tvs from the get-go and then they collect a fee from the tv manufacturer as well as the various apps and services that run on the operating system they do however have their own streaming channel too uh that is called the roku channel which is similar to something like netflix except that it's a free ad supported version which is how they make money off of it by you know placing ads on it and so far all of this has been a winning combination for them as the number of connected tv users in just the us alone that use roku has now grown to about a third of the entire u.s population that's pretty crazy plus the roku channel has already surpassed over 80 million users and grown to be the number one ad supported video on demand service in the entire market which is a huge deal because it's estimated that ad supported services already make up over half of all video on demand that's pretty crazy i didn't know that however my issue with roku has always been the same issue that i have with shopify i just don't feel that there's a big enough barrier to entry in their market to prevent giant corporations from swooping in at any moment that have more money than roku and can afford to invest as much as they need to in order to steal market share from them which is exactly what we're already starting to see for example in the ad supported space the roku channel only holds about 17 market share with giants like watch from facebook peacock from comcast to be from fox and even pluto from viacom cbs all within just around really like a percentage point from roku maybe a couple exceptions there but anyway besides that we also know that there's other giants like netflix and disney who will be launching free ad supported versions of their streaming services very soon too now granted there can be for sure many multiple players i'm not saying that there won't be multiple players and that roku can't be successful there i'm just saying that the competition is intensifying for you know people's time and people's attention and even if we go back to the operating system market first like smart tvs where roku was once you know crowned as king well even there that's been taken over by tizen from samsung which is followed by web os from lg and then there's even playstation and amazon that are tied with roku for third place while other giants like google and apple are right behind them too in fact google would actually be higher than roku if you combine android numbers with with a chromecast so for me i just worry that roku's market is too competitive and too saturated with these massively larger corporations don't get me wrong roku has always impressed me by how much growth that they've been able to put up despite that heavy competition like for example you know they usually have huge revenue growth and especially in recent years and they even started turning a profit last year too while still being expected to grow sales by another 30 plus in each of the next two years as well and because of the current market crash roku stock has also collapsed by more than 80 percent from its highs leaving it with one of the lowest ps ratios that we've seen in years at only around three but for me i've just never been brave enough to pull the trigger on roku stock and even seeing it here you know down by so much if i was forced to buy into it honestly i would treat it more of like a short-term swing trade in hopes that it recovers if the economy was to stabilize just because it's been beating down so much and rook was actually a pretty good company pretty good stock i wouldn't mind doing a short term kind of play on it but it would be for that reason it's very similar to shopify to me i just feel that they're both kind of speculative shorter term trades based on how much they've crashed by so far and whether they could see a large recovery if the economy stabilizes that's how i feel about both of these but if i was forced to pick between either rokkor shopify i'd actually prefer shopify because they at least have higher growth and more market share so anyway that's just my opinion but i don't think i'd be picking up either one of these because i just own too many of these kind of volatile spec stocks as it is what about the stock that kathy woods sold though what is my thoughts on that and how do i feel about that stock do i think it was a good sell and would i consider buying it or doing anything else with it well that stock would be coinbase ticker symbol coin who after making several purchases in it uh kathy actually made her largest trade yesterday by surprisingly selling over a million shares of it leaving it now as the 14th largest stock in the etf at close to five million shares and worth over 260 million dollars at about three percent of the etf so she sold a pretty big chunk here because you know if you kind of do the math on it i think that's like close to a fifth of the position that she just completely sold out of that's pretty large you know pretty big sell anyway coinbase stock has been crashing hard lately because if you don't already know they're one of the world's like most popular cryptocurrency exchanges that people use to buy and sell cryptos and they're currently ranked third largest overall by coinmarketcap.com based on traffic liquidity volume and confidence now the positive of being this large is that they're able to heavily benefit from any growth in in the crypto market which we know can sometimes skyrocket in popularity however the negative is that this also leaves them heavily exposed to crypto obviously which can crash their business during a downturn in the market since they're not really diversified into anything else they're very heavily reliant on crypto and because cryptocurrencies have been getting absolutely destroyed lately with the total market cap for cryptos falling from 3 trillion all the way down to 1 trillion over just the past year alone well coinbase stock has also been dragged down by over 80 percent from its highs and because crypto is such a volatile market coinbase often goes through these huge swings like last year for example where they grew their sales by a gigantic over 500 percent but are now crashing their sales by over 50 percent this year valuation wise they were profitable but their eps is now expected to fall by over 140 percent this quarter over two hundred and twenty percent next quarter and over a hundred and fifty percent overall this year which as a result of losing that profitability they now have no forward p e ratio to look at now we'd have to obviously look at their trailing ratio and we could also look at their prices sales ratio as a result of that and i will admit those are actually pretty good like their trailing p e ratio is only six and their ps ratio is only two and those used to be like 10 times higher just about a year ago but overall i still think that what this really comes down to is how much you believe in the future of crypto because if you think that cryptocurrencies are the future or that they'll be very large play a huge role in just currencies in general well then why wouldn't you want to pick up one of the largest exchanges that has crashed by so much at you know dropping over 80 percent that would seem like a pretty good deal here and to be honest i'm pretty surprised that kathy wood is selling out of this stock because well for one thing she was actually making purchases before selling it for two i've at least to my knowledge i've always thought that kathy wood was pretty bullish on cryptocurrencies so i'm surprised that she'd be selling here it almost looks like she's turning bearish on kryptos and then for number three is that well the stock has crashed by so much if you look at roku and shopify she had the same experience with those and yet she actually bought those after crashing by so much but coinbase has lost a ton of its value it's for a long time been one of her largest holdings so you would think that she'd want to buy it now you think that she'd see it as a discount and would want to pick up more shares at these lower prices but no she did the opposite she actually sold a lot out of it which is surprising to me all i can really do is speculate here but overall when looking at coinbase for me personally i still see the same issues with this one that i saw with roku and shopify and that is growing competition because not only does coinbase have to deal with other crypto exchanges that are already in the market and competing heavily against them which puts pressure on their pricing power and another in fees and other things but there's also indirect competition from some giants like paypal and visa who are adding more cryptocurrency to their infrastructure over time and you even have brokers that are starting to add more cryptocurrency functionality and and trades and and other features to their platforms as well like robinhood for example i'm not saying that coinbase has to fail i'm not saying that there isn't enough space in the market for them to be a successful exchange they could be one of many different options but i just don't really feel like picking it up that much i mean i already own some cryptocurrencies i own like bitcoin ethereum i own a few other coins some very small positions but that alone gives me a lot of volatility and a lot of speculation and a lot of uh things that i have to keep track of in the cryptocurrency space i don't really feel like i want to pick up a cryptocurrency exchange as a stock on top of all of that too i'm fine just owning a few cryptocurrencies and that gives me enough exposure to crypto and i also by the way i also own uh robin hood i also own visa i mean some of those give me indirect exposure to cryptocurrencies too so anyway for me it's just not a stock that i feel like i need to own anyway that's gonna do it for these three stocks and for this video what do you guys think personally i still really like kathy wood i always like hearing her ideas i feel that she has a lot of vision for the future and all kinds of different things but in this particular case i don't happen to like these stocks as much as a more kind of long-term investor and as someone who is trying to stabilize my portfolio a little bit especially going through such volatile times i think that there are some really good very profitable very giant solid companies that have been crashing by a lot lately that i think are fantastic buys right now i don't think you have to go out and buy a lot of speculation you you'll definitely have higher reward potential which is probably what kathy wood is trying to do here but um for me i think i'd rather have a more balanced approach so there's just other stocks that i'd rather be buying but what do you guys think did you like any of these i'd love to hear your thoughts if you do own any of these stocks or you're buying here i completely understand why you'd be doing that but i'd i'd still love to hear your thoughts on why you're picking those up and if you uh think that these are bad socks let me know that as well whatever your opinions are let me know down in the comment section i hope you enjoyed the video and i will catch you in the next one take care bye bye
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