저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
애플 iPhone Duo(폴더블 계열)와 워치 신기능 발표 이벤트에 대한 개인 리액션. 주가는 이벤트 전 상승 후 하락하는 경향을 언급하며 애플 PEG 3.69(예상성장률 약 9.5%)로 고평가이나, 실적 성장률을 20%로 가정하면 PEG 약 1.79로 떨어져 약 50% 상승여력이 있다고 주장. Duo로 인한 아이패드 잠식은 제한적이고 웨어러블 시장 점유 확대 및 고가 모델 전환(ASP 상승)으로 실적 상향 가능성 제시. 본인 애플 주식은 은퇴계좌에만 보유한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Here is my personal reaction to the Apple iPhone duo and the latest changes to the iPhone Pro 18. This is obviously the 17 Pro Max, and how they are trying to compete in the iPad mini niche that we have right at our fingertips. I won't list all the technical specifications, because you've probably already heard about them.
I will only talk about the most important things. In my opinion, the question is "is it worth buying" and ultimately, how will this affect Apple stock? First of all, let's get the situation with Apple shares straight away. I'm not trying to advertise these promotions. I think I only have them in my retirement account.
They are not even in my main portfolio or among my main investments. I say this for complete transparency. This company's shares always fall during such events. You shouldn't judge an event solely by the movement of the stock price during the day. This is a rookie mistake. All the traders who came in earlier have already made the most of the rumors, and now they need to lock in profits .
So this is old news. Usually, such events are preceded by an increase, which is what we actually saw in the dynamics of Apple's stock price . If you look at the charts, you can see that the price peaked on the day Leopold was liquidated, and we haven't returned to it since . That was just 5 weeks ago.
It's strange to even think about it. It seems like a long time ago , but it's only been 5 weeks. OK. So let's focus on that. First and foremost, of course, is the iPhone Duo. What really struck me was the talk of the iPhone Pro Max 18 that they're releasing—although they're not releasing the base models , there have been rumors about that already.
The Pro Max and Pro models will now support, if you're on T-Mobile (it's one of the most expensive carriers), the ability to get T-Mobile's quality of service through something like Mint Mobile, well, you know, that Ryan Reynolds carrier. You get T-Mobile bands for $15 a month instead of $140. I know because I use both.
I also have Verizon and AT& T. T-Mobile is probably my favorite, and I am not a T-Mobile advertiser. I have them all because when I travel, I need to be able to upload videos, okay? So, this is for business purposes. But the point is, I've always thought: it would be great to have the functionality to use a slim iPhone, like the iPhone Slim version they released last year, as a work device, but not have to have two different numbers, because it's a headache to have only one main number.
It's one thing to have four lines to download videos, it's a narrow niche, but most people just want to have the same number so that messages sync between devices. And so, if you have two phones, you're kind of in trouble. Are you facing this problem or simply can't afford two different iPhones. Now they have solved this with the T-Mobile to iPhone transfer feature.
As soon as I heard about the carryover feature, I thought, "Okay, they're setting the stage for a duet." Because I think they mean that there will be people who want an iPhone Pro, not necessarily a Max or a regular iPhone, but they also want a larger device, but they don't always want to carry both with them.
Look, a foldable phone, I think, would be extremely useful when traveling. When I was traveling recently with my two- year-olds, my twin girls, you know, two of our seven children. When I flew with them to Florida, you know, we had a 4.5- hour flight or something, we had to hang little hooks on the back of the seat in front of us; and you put the iPad in there so they have these little pockets.
And the reason we do that instead of using a cover on the table is so they can sit and draw. Now, of course, you could do the same thing with this device and just, you know, hang it in front of you if you wanted to. This is what we did. But there is a definite advantage in that it can stand on its own without the need for a large case.
Although you could use a stand case . I thought this had some unique implications. I think this means that a child can sit, fold the device, put it up like a TV like this , and then draw on the bottom half. That's exactly what they meant: that you can play a video on one half, and draw, write messages, or use another app on the bottom.
They did say they would support the Apple Pencil later this year. I'm a little disappointed that this isn't supported right away, because for me personally, one of the reasons I have all the iPads—medium, mini, and large—is that the large iPad in a case gets too heavy. You throw it in your backpack and feel the weight of a large iPad.
But the large iPad has the advantage of a keyboard case. That's why I really like having a keyboard like this. Unfortunately, the downside is that official Apple cases do not include a keyboard for the smaller iPad Mini. Although there are third-party versions that you can use. So I ended up using one of those $ 20 notebook covers .
This reduces the weight considerably when traveling with the Mini, but I lose the advantage of a physical keyboard. However, I still have the stylus. Why do I like the stylus and why do I find it useful for the Pro? Again , the kids use it, as well as me. I constantly sit and edit PDF files at work.
I read a lot on these devices. As much as I prefer large iPads, I hate lugging them around . And there's nothing better than a device and a pencil when it comes to highlighting text. It's a completely different feeling compared to using a laptop. Laptops are cool, they have their purpose, but it's not as fun to highlight text in a PDF or write on something you're working on as it is on an iPad.
Nothing compares to this feeling. For example, I open PDF files all the time , as I said. So, I get something like: okay, here's Tesla's page on rare earth metals. You know, I need to go to the text and then enter the text here. That's normal, I guess, if you're in the studio. See, now I'm going to increase the size a little here or something.
But I can do it much more freely with a pencil, and it's much nicer to have an iPad Mini for this when traveling. But this is where I always got disappointed. Now I have two damn devices and it's annoying. The iPhone Duo solves this problem. It also solves the problem of me literally lugging a tripod around with me when I travel to shoot video or photos —whether it's for work or for family.
You know, you can install it and then take a photo with your Apple Watch. You know, we have it right here. We'll talk about that in just a moment. Uh , you can use this as a shutter remote, which is very useful. But then you have to carry a monopod with you , and it has to be packed. So the amount of all the junk you have to take with you is a little annoying.
You still need a wireless microphone if you're going to set this up somewhere. But if you take the Duo, like they were demonstrating, and just put it on a table, open like this, you can film yourself while it's standing on its own, you know, on a table or something like that. This is much harder to do with a regular phone unless you have some kind of supportive case.
Again, there's a solution for everything, but the way this Duo can solve the problem is: if I want a smaller phone and a Duo, and my number can switch between them instantly. Currently only T-Mobile is supported. It will eventually expand, right? For me, it's actually quite fascinating. Besides, I liked what they showed.
They called it, I think, the Q function, which I think is really cool. Uh, they were talking about the idea that when you're taking pictures of your kids, you can turn on a video or a clown or whatever on the other half of your Duo to make the kids look at the phone and laugh while you're taking their picture.
Again , I have seven children, so this is very important to me. I've been a big fan of the different shapes of Meta goggles, whether it's skiing or any activity— I wear them. I love, love, love Meta glasses. Er, because I can capture moments with my kids that just can't be captured with a phone or other device.
It at least makes them smile when I want to take their picture. So I think there is a benefit here too . So, I think this is a win for content creators. I think this is a victory for family people. I think this is a win for those who love to travel. Now, apparently they're changing the device so that the controls are mostly on the side, so you can operate it with one hand if you want, when it's closed or open.
This means rewriting application software . I actually think it also creates an advantage for the functional use of the device because, you know, when you use your phone or you, uh, okay, I guess I'm locked into both. Okay, okay. I'll just go into this one. You see, this is the downside: Touch ID and Face ID are offended by you, and the Mini doesn't have Touch ID, or sorry, the Mini doesn't have Face ID, and the Duo, accordingly, won't have Touch ID.
I hate, I just hate unlocking my devices. And it sounds like a first-world problem, because it's like, "Come on, Kevin. It's four figures. How hard can it be ?" But for me, it's not like that, because I end up using a very strong long password, which I think everyone should do, because your access keys are tied to this device.
And when your access keys are tied to a device, if you just have a code like 555, people can log into your bank account, email, or anywhere else just by looking over your shoulder at the four-digit PIN. So anyway , the point is that when the device is open, usually at the bottom you'll have this, uh, panel where you can, you know, functionally open apps.
Okay, I'll give you an example here. Let's just, uh, I'll hide a few widgets that are n't relevant. This is, uh, our late Uncle Brian. He was such a good person. We ate ice cream when it was about 20 degrees outside. But, whatever it is , that whole panel at the bottom, that whole section at the bottom, is technically gone, which now gives you more workspace on the screen because you have a smaller, smoother, thumb-friendly menu on the right.
I really consider this a functional improvement that gives you back essentially another inch of iPad display. I think this is very useful. So, I really like it. Now, one thing I will say is that I didn't like it, and I know some people don't like it either, but I want to be honest. There is no financial motivation for this video, other than the advertising that runs in it , okay?
I'm not trying to push up Apple stock. Me, I'm excited about these devices, and there's no sponsor in this video either . There isn't even any discount coupon here. So I'm just sharing this because of my enthusiasm for technology. But let's talk about the watch, because this is where things get a little more interesting.
As for the watch, they say it can rewind in real time what you hear. For example, you hear someone reading a menu at a restaurant, and then you double- click the wheel , the small round button on the side that is functional. I like this double-tap as a certain functional element if you can focus. That's it.
This little wheel right here. By simply double- clicking on it, I can rewind what was said 15 seconds ago and see the transcription, just in case I missed something. Uh, okay. OK. I don't know how useful it will be. I don't know if I'll stand in front of someone and say, "Wait a minute." Click-click.
And then I rewind , like, " Could you repeat that?" You know, I can still be human, right? So I'm not particularly interested in it. But what seemed strange was making notes and summarizing the day. This is a feature that various companies are trying to implement , including OpenAI . In my opinion, this is Apple's attempt to respond to OpenAI.
Like, "Hey, we're going to summarize your day and let you take notes throughout the entire time. So when you have a meeting, a parent-teacher conference, or a work meeting, we're going to automatically summarize all your data with end-to-end encryption, and your privacy is safe because everything is stored locally, blah blah blah, that sort of thing." OK.
I think there was, for example, even a device called Plaud that recorded everything all day, or there are bracelets that record everything said throughout the day and then summarize it. These companies sell you the idea of privacy, but people forget the cruelest fact in America. If you are sued in America, and you have a summary of everything you said at various meetings, all of it could become the subject of a subpoena.
They don't need to break the encryption . They just get the judge's decision: "Unblock it, you devilish creature." And then you are either forced to do it, or the court will impose sanctions for destroying evidence. So , literally, the more summaries you make, the more you put the people you meet at risk by creating these summaries.
So, from a legal, banking, and financial compliance perspective, it's pretty nonsensical. Yes , you can turn it off. This is useful for most people who aren't concerned about following the rules or having their words taken out of context. But remember, I said I like Meta glasses? When I wear regular Meta glasses, I often take them off while talking because I don't want people to think I'm recording their every word.
In my opinion, people become less human when they know they're under a microscope and have to watch their every word because someone's Apple Watch is transcribing everything they say. They simply can't be themselves because someone is constantly listening, and in this case, people literally add up all their conversations for the day.
I think this makes the device less suitable for everyday wear. If I go to an important meeting, will I be forced to take off my Apple Watch because of the signal it gives off—like I have to listen, or can they record everything I say? I don't know , it's a thought that's arising now, although it wasn't there before, kind of like when I take off my Meta glasses.
I know many people will say, "What does it matter, I'll never get sued or anything like that." Well, I hope not, but it's crazy how lawsuits work . So I just think: if you do n't write anything down and document anything, then you don't have to worry about what you said 50,000 meetings ago. It's crazy, but now you have to worry about what everyone else is recording.
Quite strange. OK. What I really liked was that they gave me a Whoop bracelet. Thank you, by the way. Uh , but not from Whoop. I bought a subscription and then got an Oura ring. I like that it has body readiness and heart rate variability features. Apple simply destroyed them. I actually did a full analysis of Oura's financials.
If you want to watch, just type “Meet Kevin Oura ring IPO” into YouTube. You will see this video, it is called " Serious 'red flags' in the Oura ring IPO". Of course? This is a new IPO that is being prepared. I think they're trying to go public using last year's sales because they suspected Apple would destroy them.
Oura ring is simple And they did it. Oh, there it is. Okay. So , what's up with the Oura Ring? Oura Ring provides you with a feature such as measuring heart rate variability. Uh, heart rate variability measurement via the Oura Ring records deviations in your heartbeat every 5 minutes. Apple is now releasing the exact same feature with the same heart rate reading interval.
Now they 'll measure your normal heart rate more often, uh, which is great, every 5 seconds , it used to be every 100 seconds, I think. They will measure your heart rate, but heart rate variability is now on par with the Oura Ring. So, with the new watch, you're essentially killing the functionality of the Whoop and Oura in terms of better sleep tracking, exercise readiness, stress, uh, and heart rate variability, which are components of these metrics.
That's cool if you're interested in it. I personally found that a lot of these health metrics that I've been tracking like a maniac, uh, a lot of times...I kind of get into these little phases. I was doing glucose monitoring . I've tried all of this . Personally, I don't think I need to collect this data all the time.
You're driving yourself crazy collecting all this data all the time. And the benefits of them... after you've used them a few times, you kind of say: okay, I get it. That's what it measures. Here's how it works. Wow, if I run more, my VO2 goes up. What a surprise, right? Uh, that's cool, but I'm, you know, not really convinced that all of this is actually that necessary in the long run.
Is it worth updating? Perhaps. What I like about the Apple Watch is that it's going to have , uh, you know, faster communication technology, faster chipsets, especially for unlocking the iPhone Duo. Uh, and the new iPhone Pro Max 18 and regular 18 will have faster AirDrop, which is really useful because AirDrop, for some reason, has become very slow.
In short, these are my thoughts on the watch, uh, on the Duo . I'm a big fan of Duo. I want to clarify regarding the Duo, I think it is a viable device. I...I would buy it. I'm probably 99% sure I 'm going to buy it. Uh, again, the stylus feature won't be coming until the end of the year, which I find strange that it didn't come out with it.
And I'm not sure I'll need another Pro Max. I'm pretty sure the strategy will be this: you take the Duo for work or travel, and then you have either a small basic iPhone, or even that slim version, the second model of which is supposedly coming out in the spring, and you switch between them or just use the Duo as your primary device.
Or just don't buy any of it. It doesn't matter. We'll talk about the implications for stocks in a moment, but that's what I'm thinking about right now. As for wearable gadgets , they are also releasing biological age features, which are literally copying other devices. And they have a new feature: now you don't have to train outside to measure your VO2.
VO2 typically tracks your distance using GPS and heart rate . And then they can calculate what they think your VO2 is. Now they have a feature where you can run in place, almost like playing Wii Fit, and it will measure your VO2. This whole health app won't be out until the end of the year, but I think it's really interesting because it turns out we're stealing ideas from Wii Fit, we're stealing from other gadgets, and as always, Apple will probably do it better.
So, that's pretty cool. And of course, there will be new straps, you know, for watches, cases and all sorts of little things, who cares? OK. These are just my main findings, I'm not trying to read you every statistic. I like that they probably used technology from the previous thin iPhone to create the Duo, because they talk about this aerospace titanium frame and how thin it is.
It's significantly thinner than a regular iPhone because they squeezed most of the chipset into the camera lens area. You won't have many lenses . Personally, I don't care. I don't use all three anyway. A regular wide angle is enough. I like the variable aperture they talked about in the iPhone Pro and Pro Max.
This is very useful if you are trying to take a group portrait selfie or want to get a nice shot where there are a lot of people. Very often, today's iPhone seems to blur the focus between two different people. So you're trying to get a nice blur, but you end up blurring one person, then another, and you have to constantly adjust to get the shot.
Quite annoying. This is what they try to fix with a variable speed or variable aperture, which essentially determines how much light the lens lets through. Reasonably. This is cool. But the real star here is Duo. You know, do I really care about a 20% faster processor, a 40% faster graphics chip in the Pro version based on the 822-nanometer process, or 50% more memory bandwidth, or a slightly better battery?
Is this a variable aperture? Not particularly. Will this be useful for people who create video content that is more complex than regular conversational videos, like mine? Of course. But I think that for the vast majority of people, Duo is just something incredible. Like , Duo—it's great. I think there are many functional uses for this.
I like the idea of setting it up to stand on its own, with the display at a 1Hz refresh rate, right? Always-on display, like on an iPhone that just woke up, so it seemed to turn on. But it always looks turned off because it's lying somewhere on a table. So, you see, I see this aspect. But if it could be placed vertically, it would be like a laptop that you always have in your pocket, and you could set up an always- on display for notifications or whatever.
I'm thrilled about this. You know, we didn't get any new tools for HomeKit, like a separate HomeKit wall monitor for cameras or smart devices. But I think it's a pretty impressive release from Apple, and I'm a big fan of most of what was shown. There are some features that I would turn off or that I find inconvenient to use, but that's my personal preference.
Overall, I think this is a pretty good step forward. I don't like that Duo doesn't have Face ID. This will appear in the future. I'll accept it . I've almost come to terms with it in the mini. I still complain every time: “Oh, seriously? "Well, then." Because if your finger is sweaty or dirty, it does n't work as conveniently as facial recognition.
I don't know, it's annoying. Unlocking with your watch is good if you wear it all the time. I usually wear it, but not while recording. I don't know why. It feels like he's out of place. I seem to have this habit: when I'm in the office, I have to remember to put it on charge because the damn thing keeps dying, even though it's an Ultra 3.
So, I've kind of mentally programmed myself that if I'm in a certain place, I put it on charge. This way it is always charged. So I'm excited about that. I think it's very good overall. Now, how does this affect stocks? So, the shares themselves are not cheap. They are relatively expensive, and one of the reasons the price has increased, in my opinion, is the move into a sort of "expensive" segment, if you will.
It trades at a PEG ratio of 3.69 with analysts expecting average growth of around 9.5% over the next 4 years. You know, it's trading at a PEG ratio of over three. The future price/ earnings ratio is over 30, and the growth is under 10. That's over three in terms of PEG, if you divide one by the other .
It is expensive compared to other companies that you can buy. Tesla and cybersecurity companies are a bit more expensive. But that could be because markets expect Apple's growth to be much higher. I am one of them . I think Apple will probably grow because of this. So, will the Duo " cannibalize" some of the iPad sales?
Yes. But it's fairly new, and a potential iPad buyer already has two or three tablets lying around idle. They are not happy about the prospect of buying a new iPad. They are excited about buying Duo because it is something new. And the phone switching feature opens up possibilities for people who want to use two phones.
One for home—simple, without all those annoying apps, notifications, and other junk, and smaller and lighter. And another one that has everything you need for work. Stylus, full app functionality, and everything we talked about. I think there will be people who will choose this option. And I believe that the iPhone's data feature and Duo open up a vertical of growth that is not yet factored into the stock price.
Even though the rumors are already taken into account, too many people say, "Well, what's the difference, man." Who cares? "Like, Siri AI—that's where the next level of growth is." No. Anyone who uses Siri today knows that she's terrible. And people don't buy an iPhone or anything else for this voice assistant .
I try not to say her name. People buy it for the iron. So improving Siri is kind of a given. We're all like, "Okay, we know. " One day she will be better. She's not very good yet. One day she will be better. Well, so I think this really opens up a new category for growth. This definitely takes away a significant share of the wearables market, which is a win for Apple over the Ultra 3.
Although all those Apple Health and AI advisor features won't be available until the end of the year. This will be quite interesting. I like it. I would like to see an Apple version of, you know, notification suggestions , workouts, or something like that. I really think that's cool. Overall, I'm impressed.
This event is exactly what I wanted and more. For example, there were no rumors about the handoff feature. Being able to use it as a tripod or to entertain the kids while I take their photos are all added bonuses. The health updates on the watch are exactly what I expected. They will lose some of their iPhone Pro Max users .
You know, I'm not going to buy the 18 Pro Max because I do n't need it anymore. I might get the new slim model, but I'll probably choose the Duo. And I think many will do the same. And suddenly you took me from a $1,200 phone buyer to a $2,000 buyer. So you just increased your income from me at the lowest storage level by 66%.
There will be availability disruptions with these devices. I think they'll sell out much faster than people expect, which is really impressive, and Apple's growth forecasts will probably be revised upwards . Will they be revised enough to justify a PEG ratio of 3.6? Probably not. This is still a very high score .
We have a lot of, you know, geopolitical problems, interest rate problems, well, all this nonsense or something like that . But personally, I'm very excited about it. When that re-estimates the stock's growth rate, say if we get to 15%, then that's a fair price to buy Apple even today. If we look at it this way because OpenAI is buying up all the Mac Ultras available, they could go up 20% and suddenly the stock will seem cheap.
Because if I get 20% growth for Apple, we'll do the exact calculations in a moment. And then I want to show you other things that this opens up. We will open their latest financial report. But, well, let's see. Apple AAPL. OK. So, our earnings per share forecast is $8.83. Growth forecast for the next four years according to analysts' expectations: 8.73 per share next year , 11.28 then, 10.79 then, 8.41 then.
Divide by four, I get 9.8% growth, right? So, the stock is worth $317, let's say, divide by 8.83. This gives us a figure of 35.9. This is expensive. But if I divide that by nine on the growth scale, I'm closer to a PEG ratio of 4. I rounded up a little bit there . If I divide that by the 20% EPS growth , because they can increase those margins, then suddenly the stock is only trading at a PEG ratio of 1.79.
In my opinion, this means that the stock has an upside potential of about 50%. So, if I add 50% to $317 , I get almost $500, or $476 to be exact. And these are exactly the kind of stocks that, in my opinion, you shouldn't worry about whether they will stop innovating or go bankrupt. Will they be late?
Yes. But will they stop innovating, go bankrupt, and be replaced by artificial intelligence? No. This is a great company. So I'm personally very inspired by this. I like the product release. I think this adds value to their work. And I believe that when memory costs come down in the future, Apple will maintain these higher price levels.
And guess who will get it in the form of margin? Apple. Apple will get this. So, that's my opinion. Oh, and someone is now announcing that I'm checking the price of the duo— $3,199 for 2TB. Yes , I don't think most people need 2 TB. I think that's a bit too much. I think some 4K video creators will want to, but they will most likely use the Pro Max.
This is their target audience with a variable aperture lens. But if I go into the settings of the phone I have, well, let's see. About device, General, About device. I like the Canadian version. I have 512. 512 is enough for me. It starts at 256 for 1999. You know, what kind of download do I have? I don't know how full it is.
Because everyone hates it when they run out of space on their device. I have 143 available. Honestly, I would probably take the version for 2499-2599 with a terabyte, whatever the real price is. I could be persuaded to get 1 TB, but I don't think two terabytes is really necessary. So, that's my overall conclusion.
Optimistic. I like what's happening here. Of course, there will be a lot of reassessments from analysts and expectations, but in my opinion, this is a fantastic move by Apple , and, frankly, they did a good job. Why not advertise th.
Comments 0