저자: MichaelO'Jones · 외국인
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구글 Gemini 3 출시로 OpenAI가 경쟁 열세에 놓이며 AI 생태계 전반에 리스크가 커졌다는 진단. 나스닥 3% 조정, 엔비디아·오라클 차익실현 후 구글·브로드컴으로 로테이션. OpenAI의 1.4조 달러 지출 약정이 AMD·엔비디아 등 대형 기술주 수주잔고에 연결돼 있어 우려 확대. 자본력 큰 메가캡(메타 등)은 자금 조달 리스크가 낮다고 봄. 연준은 금리인하 가능성이 있으나 영향은 부차적이라고 평가.
다듬은 글
The release of Google's updated Gemini 3 AI model last month has driven user growth. It has also prompted OpenAI CEO Sam Alman to reportedly declare a quote code red to improve the quality of its chatbot chat GPT. Our next guest says that has also touched off a civil war within AI further carving a divide between those supporting the Google complex and the open AI complex.
Joining me now Michael O Jones training chief market strategist. Mike, great to see you again. Thanks for sticking with us. So, you know, we have talked before about your belief that indeed AI is trading in a bubble here and we've gotten more headlines like this where there is more competition within the AI space.
It seems like bulls have sort of been betting on everything to win, right? That it's a big enough pie that everybody will get a slice. Is that the way that people should be thinking about it? Uh, I don't think that's the way people should be thinking about it. Um but we we've developed this pattern in the past 15 years or so is that when uh you know a leader comes about in the technology space it seems to be a winner take all proposition and so investors are willing to pay extremely high multiples uh especially in the early stages because you're expecting the company to own the space in the long term and and you're going to make it up as time passes.
But I think what the events of the past few weeks have shown where Google came out of nowhere, out of left field with Gemini 3, um, you know, all of a sudden it leapfrogged OpenAI to be to have the best performing, um, LL LLM and, uh, and then on the in parallel to that, they, you know, they have their own TPUs that that's where they train trained uh, Gemini 3 on and that's performed really Well, and of course they're a lot cheaper than Nvidia's GPUs.
And while all these companies right now, there is of course room for all these companies in a space that's growing, but it does make you think well obviously success breeds competition. And what you're going to see is it's going to get it's I would say it's a it's almost a blood sport between the mo largest most capitalized organizations in the world finally competing with one another.
And that's where the risk is because they're going to be trying to outspend each other and outdo one another in order to win this space. And traditionally, they've generally had weaker competition, not the largest organizations in the world. So, what we've seen in the markets as of late with the NASDAQ pulling back, right, it hasn't been a huge pullback from the highs at something like 3%.
Does that bring a little more rationality into this or do you think that there is still a long way down potentially to go? I think it brings a little more rationality in the sense of what we've seen is rotation into Google and Broadcom as there's been some profit taking in in Nvidia and the likes of Oracle who's partnered with Open AI.
Um, so you're seeing rotation which is healthy because at least investors are recognizing that there are risks that someone else can come out again another player or or you know someone else can come in and make a big move somewhere and that's good that investors are at least acknowledging there's risk out there.
But in the same respect, we're pricing in in many cases uh you know forward earnings for the next several years based on forecast and projections. I mean I think one of the market's biggest uh pro or investors biggest problems with you know with what everything that OpenAI has done is is having $1.4 trillion in spending commitments that are integrated in the order books of all the major technology firms uh in the in the world for that matter.
and and you know they're unsure if open AI is going to be able to make good on those commitments and then all of a sudden you have something like you know Google jump ahead it raises further doubts. So I think that's where the risk is. Yeah, we know the earnings estimates are good. We know the forecasts are good but everything has to be taken with a a big grain of salt at this point in time because the landscape shifted in the past couple of weeks.
Well, and and into this environment, it looks like the Fed might cut rates right at its meeting. Um, and in past situations where we have a somewhat speculative environment, even if the rate cut is expected, like is is there a risk of P putting fuel on the fire here? Uh, I think I think there's a a little bit of a risk.
Honestly, the Fed has kind of made itself a an irrelevant institution at this point in time. we have a massive balance sheet which we finally have into some type of ample reserves balance but it's still double the level it was um you know prior to the the pandemic. So when things like economic data and and uh you know events in the economy don't really matter to the Fed anymore because again we've had two insurance rate cuts.
Now we're thinking of doing a third insurance rate cut. The the current unemployment rate is still lower than 74 75% of monthly readings over the past 60 70 years. Um it's just that the feds be made it's made itself irrelevant and that is why change at the feds probably will be a good thing. uh you know, next year.
So, I I it feeds it adds a little fuel to the fire, but I think that's a secondary uh a secondary uh factor here. Fair enough, Mike. Good to see you. Thanks so much. We awake a story today that OpenAI CEO Sam Alman is issuing some form of code code red warning to his teams. Basically wants to pick up the pace on development.
What bothers me here, Tom, is that this company underpins the AI trade. It's linked up with AMD. It's linked up with Nvidia. And if OpenAI is going to fall behind here, what does that mean to the broader AI ecosystem and the various trades that investors have fallen in love with? Brian, you are you have hit the nail on the head and this is what matters to investors in this story, right?
The Google Gemini AI model is a huge deal because it it it threatens to make Open AI and chat GPT substantially less relevant. And here's why that matters for all of us. ChatGBT, Open AI, has committed to spending over a trillion dollars in the coming years to fund data center buildout. If all of a sudden their revenue prospects dim because Google, which already has a presence everywhere, is going to become the dominant AI model player, then the outlook for chat GPT just got a lot worse.
That means they're not going to have the money to fund all of these commitments they've made, commitments with with which stocks have already rallied on. So if Open AI, this is absolutely code red. This is code red for open AI. It's also code red for the AI enthusiasm trade. We need to see chat GPT step up.
Otherwise, it's it's not just, you know, open AI in the private market that that risks dropping a lot. It's the whole AI ecosystem. And and that would be a problem for the S&P 500. Tom, if if this is in fact code red for the broader AI ecosystem, I'm going to assume that a lot of people have already missed a pretty substantial move in Google.
I'm going to swipe it off to the side for a second. Is this the moment where you go back to a name like Meta that is not relying on Open AI, that is spending billions of dollars on capex? The street didn't like that a couple weeks ago when the reported earnings, but here's a company growing its core Instagram business, Facebook, and going to be a major player in AI and doesn't necessarily need an open AI.
Yes, I think so. And that's what I think again this is such a big deal with Google stepping out with Gemini is that you look at these well- capitalized mega cap tech companies. They don't need to worry about finding funding to to you know to pay for all the things they've committed to. They can do that from cash flow and from a very very uh favorable debt market.
So I do like Meta as a tangential from a Google and as over to you what what I what concerns me here amongst everything that I was just mentioning is a company like AMD you know they came out a couple months ago signed a big deal with open AI the stock shot up immediately thought AI AMD is going to be raking billions of dollars from open AAI they're also going to have an investor in the form of open AI I believe it's a potential 10% stake uh over time that bothers me if OpenAI can't deliver right now if you're an AMD shareholder, you got to be quaking in your boots.
Yes. And look, when you saw that uh the stock reaction when the report on the Google and uh Meta um potential deal with their TPUs, the Google AI chips, you saw that Nvidia fell on that day and AMD did as well. um [clears throat] the fact that you have Alphabet or Google that is um has its TPU chips which they don't nec okay fine they don't compete directly with Nvidia's GPUs but certainly this is sort of a diversification play for them and the fact that you also have their Google Gemini which has been integrated into Google you know what's very interesting is that the street had been concerned that chat GPT was going to displace Google search yet Google was able to integrate Google Gemini into its Google search and it still has the best of both worlds because if you're going to use Google search, you're going to probably use it to look for a local handyman, right?
And that still goes with their ad part of their business. But with their Gemini, you're looking you're looking at it for more deep research, for more u helping out with term papers, whatever that may be. But nonetheless, I mean, this is Google firing at all cylinders and this is sort of having a ricochet effect on the rest of the AI players.
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