저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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인도 증시는 과열이 아니며 시가총액/GDP 약 70%로 과도하지 않다고 봄. 글로벌 유동성 확대가 주가에 우호적이며 좋은 기업을 합리적 가격에 담으라고 강조. 기업이익은 GDP 대비 3% 수준으로 저조해 향후 이익 회복 여지가 크다고 주장. 은행은 공공은행에서 민간은행으로 가치 이동이 아직 1/3 정도만 진행됐다고 봄. 다만 부실자산 불투명성 때문에 일부 민간은행은 회피 권고. 핀테크 위협은 아직 확인되지 않았다고 판단.
다듬은 글
very little introduction ramdev Agarwal he's been a man who has spoken widely about his investment philosophy which has predominantly been a value investment Philosophy for most of his life we have Mr agrawal today here with us to talk about not just what the last week's been like for the markets but to give us a much longer perspective on where Indian equities are headed and to speak with him I'm joined by my colleague from Bloomberg Quint well aam hi and Mr agal thank you and welcome to Bloomberg Queen most welcome this is first time and I'm very excited I am very excited as well this is your first Facebook live isn't it okay great so we're hoping that all of you will send in many questions for Mr agal uh and don't ask for specific stock picks it' be nicer if you try and gauge from him uh you know all the sort of learnings of his life that have helped him become such a successful investor I'm going to start by asking what you might call a slightly more shorter term question where do we stand today in India's Equity markets given the macroeconomic indicators where we are from either an inflation point of view an interest rate point of view or given what you assess of the earning season that's just winding down yeah M thanks for giving this opportunity and yeah so you know uh assessing Market there like a you know you're asking how is the swimming pool for a you know Fel or some swimmer we I mean Market is always ready to to welcome the investors and I'm speaking for the investors not for the Traders and Traders in any case they can make money in good time as well as bad time you know so for investors uh see when should investors avoid the market when markets are completely foric you know when it is so much overpriced that uh uh even a shoe boy is giving you tips and uh IPO Market is booming and valuations are crazy and Market Capital GDP is like more like 1.5 1.7 1.8 so we are not in foric times we are not depressed we are not at you know 30 40% of GD uh GDP 910p there is nobody on the street it's not like that but right now we are nice 24° temperature it's a nice shiny afternoon you must go for shopping and this is a time to build nice portfolio India is in a very unique situation India has low I mean we always had problem from the oil so we had high current account deficit rup was always Under Pressure that huge problem is not there at all one uh the current governor has done a wonderful job but more than that even the God has done a much better job oil is at oil is at $40 second is your Monsoon is after so many years we have got a ample Monsoon I me I was seeing today a map I think Bary Punjab and something in Northeast and very small portion is sou somewhere I think Chennai or something everything else is either flooded or normal yeah so this is after a long time I'm seeing even in Mumbai we are seeing after a long time intense Monsoon okay so this has its own merits you know which will play out in next 3 4 months uh you have uh inflation under control I mean uh uh it's I mean okay desirable is even lower but 6% is this thing uh not very high but I think one of the thing which people are missing is that what is the global environment see we are no more isolated in the world abut and I don't understand much of global macro but today $13 trillion day after day the bond prices all over the world is going to the roof and yield is sinking yeah okay yesterday when you see the Ft headlines the because of bond buying there's a global collapse in the yields in one day today we are at almost at 7 or 7 7.1 before even the rate cut so what we are talking about the world is a wash with the liquidity a wash with liquidity I mean we used to curse green span today it is multiple times bigger than green span it's green span to the power of 100 something like that and it's still on that 100 is becoming 110 so we are in completely floating so uh and India is in a very unique situation you know there's one growth economy large growth economy which can ATT all all forms of capital the issue is how much we deserve to get in debts in Bonds in equities so the equities which can afford which are good which are corporations which are of the size which are managed well and fortunately we have we are blessed with a lot of good corporations and if they are reasonably priced and there is a growth there is no D of borrow buyers you will get some crazy number of buyers for those companies so this is a time to build a portfolio of good companies you'll be surprised uh I mean they will do well in any case you know but there is a icing on the cake that Global liquidities can push it to different levels okay you know I do want to ask you about when this this party that's going on the liquidity party at some point is going to come to an end and there's going to be this crazy hangover we will all suffer because of it but I think maybe I'm I'm sort of uh jumping many questions before that I know aam has a bunch of questions on really what you make of earnings what you make of valuations so let's ask you a few more specifics about the domestic markets before we get to the liquidity issue a well I actually wanted to know about the earnings firstly when it comes to quarter 4 and the quarter 1 earnings not everyone is very happy with the earnings so I want your reading on how youve seen them and I also want to know if whether or not you expect these earnings to pick up in momentum going forward see ings will pick up momentum I mean nothing if you ask me do you know next quarter is going to be much bigger than this quarter I don't know I mean that's not with this quarter yeah broadly my portfolio is done well see what we should ask you what your portfolio is that's the key here isn't it except for one or two bit of disappointment not even disaster everything is fine in fact we have got more surprises positive they negatives so much okay so you know what has happened is Market has become very narrow in terms of I mean quality is there uh companies are there they're stable but uh companies which are very successful right now they are fewer and fewer handful yes very handful so you have to be you have to be smart in kind of picking those company you have to actually anticipate who will be successful and hence they should find uh position in your portfolio see when they are successful and then you go by it doesn't work you know so you have to anticipate rightly and position your portfolio like that and the qgp that the format which we talk about philosophy which we'll talk a little later that that that philosophy does exactly that it anticipates where the ball is going to be and that like a right right finger he is there hoping that ball will come and then he will shoot the goal you know okay but I also want to address uh the one year forward P for the industries right now is around 18 19 times does this number matter right now anymore I know that it is higher than the average historical average that we see yeah I it is there I understand but earnings itself is depressed see how do you do the P multiple right price see when we are doing markets then we are doing the total market cap now do you know what is the total market cap it is 110 lakh crores right okay now the total profits of all the listed company is about 4 lakh plus okay when you do that it works out to be about uh uh it will work out it will be a little higher actually if because market cap is including the loss making companies all the banks are making losses but they Market G is also there so for aggregate Market it might be higher than 18 or 19 right okay so uh the issue is that earnings are depressed the market cap to GDP sorry corporate profit to GDP there's a correlation so you are on a 1 lakh 145 lakh cres of GDP you are making just about 4 lakh CR profit Which is less than 3% okay the normal levels are between 3 to 7 or 8 okay okay so as the economy recovers what will happen is the GDP will keep growing at about 10 12% and uh and the corporate profits will not grow at 12% whenever it starts it will grow at 15% 20% 30% so exponentially exponentially increase and eventually it will peek out at say say 6% so in 6 years next 5 6 years GDP will definitely double noral GDP will double to say from 1 LH 145 lakh cres to say 300 lakh cres if by chance the uh corporate profits are about 6% so you're talking about 18 lakh profit so from 4 lakh you go to 18 l which will be four and half times so keep the P multiple same you are talking about four to five times in next 6 years right Mr that's an extreme bull case scenario isn't it but we are bulls I'm not denying that and I'm going to question even that position in just a bit but I you don't think je or just to get it in very simple terms as aam asked you you don't think the markets are overvalued right now given that earning season after earning season we seem to be stacking up markets are not overvalued stocks could be okay stocks are overvalued yeah always you'll find some if there's Madness going on for the relative performance of something you cannot in a market of 3,000 stock there will be 10 20 30 stocks will be excessively priced but not the market as a whole at 70% of GDP no Market I mean India has traded between say in the absolutely worst of the day maybe 40% to 180% 2007 when we picked out our GDP was 45 lak my market cap was 73 lakh 1.
eight times today it is just the Ulta you know we are at 110 L market cap and 145 L GDP so at 70% to GDP it can fall for 10 by 10% I'm not saying the market cannot fall up by 10% or 15% I'll be very surprised after 12 months I mean at least give invested 12 months time in 12 months it is significantly below current levels I'll be very surprised okay I'll be very surprised that in 12 months it is significantly below current levels I think you should read that sentence very carefully because essentially this is you know Mr agal saying it may move up or down but there there doesn't going there doesn't seem to be any big depletion activity that's lined up according to yeah but in during 12 months there could be a de correction I get it I know I know but it must come back yeah so I'm just I'm just making it sure that all our viewers are you know getting every word carefully up there sorry so so you've extensively spoken about value migration in a lot of your previous conversations uh I want to know uh where is that going to in terms of businesses and sectors over the next 5 years or the 10 years because I know that market dynamics are extremely extremely and rapidly changing from month to Day to you know second every second so where do you see the sectors which should benefit or the sectors which could you know come up from here yeah so you know value migrations are you know it's a long stor apart from large it's very longest story so uh uh very near home public sector Banks to private sector Banks right but that shifts already played out has it not yet we are only 25% 30% in private sector Banks okay and 70% is still with this so-called public sector so that the large part of that transition or shift has to yet play out according no it will be other way around 70% will be private yeah I get it 30% so this transfer of of let's let's put it this way the business uh you know sort of from public sector Banks to private sector it's only half played out according to you 1 thir one3 and the best is is still ahead so what what can it do is that now there is a there is a banking license on tap so you don't have to be very blessed guy to get a license okay now from so 20 license have already been given and I don't know how many uh guys will come and take it on tap in uh out of tap in next 12 months or so so what happened last time you got out of the 10 10 or 15 license which are given you got one HDC Bank you got one Kodak Bank you got one uh uh you know so so many B in bank so all these Banks ICS Bank XIs Bank these are the ones which are huge wealth creators we are going to see I mean when uh HDFC Bank came it got listed 40 bucks 200 cres was a equity in 96 for 800 cres you could buy the entire Bank okay today the bank is 3 lakh crores yeah so what I'm saying is these kind of opportunities are going to come up and what HDFC Bank did in 20 years some of the banks are going to do it in 10 years okay so I don't to know which ones you're talking about but but before before I put that question to you license no I know know I get that but I'm just a little concerned about where we are in the you know sort of the asset cycle or the bad loan cycle because for a very long time we saw it play out in the PSU Banks and in the last few quarters we've seen it play out in the private sector Banks as well you've seen that happen with axess bank you've seen it happen with IC bank and word on the street is that it's in fact going to get worse from here on for the next few quarters so therefore how do you take stock I mean I'm looking at this from an investment point of view not Trader point of view so I'm not saying what do you do next week or next month but are you fearful that a large part of the business that these banks have been doing is fairly suspect at this point in time so I don't have any view on that you might be knowing better about them okay so the way we play is that we buy the banks we don't have these troubl assets that's the only way to play it but how do you know that they don't because we've discovered in the last few quarters that they were pretending they didn't have it yeah but uh that's where the investing skills come from we have to do some homework so then you're buying HDFC bank which doesn't have a book in that site at all right they mostly focused on why why do I have to have trouble book in my book okay fine okay so then we know you're invested in HDFC that's it right I mean that's not you but that's the better the point is uh uh you know when you know that credit cycle is against you and you know surpris going to come even the banks don't know how how many book uh accounts will go bad so stay away and you know at somewhere there will be an opportunity for us to look at those uh uh Banks or uh I mean that's not my style uh to buy uh what was uh very cheap what is very cheap and uh the asset cycle has gone through uh but fundamentally avoid this kind of situations so you've said two things to us so far Mr agal you've said that you're expecting the large part of the sh from the public sector Bank to the private sector bank yet to play out you said 2/3 of that strategy is yet to play out right and on the other hand you're still telling us that that many of these private sector banks in fact might not be disclosing the real status of their assets stick to the safe Banks don't buy now because I see I'm an investor I have a choice I'm paying full price I'm paying Price to Book three four I have a choice where to invest and where not to invest I I don't have to take responsibility of all the banks which are there I I need in 17 is stock portfolio 15 is stock portfolio I need two Banks and that's also not necessary to have a bank yeah when I finding absolute pristine Bank pristine nbfc or Housing Finance Company then only I buy it must be quality growth longivity at reasonable price period okay I I know you have lots of questions excuse me I have one more question on Banking and that is to do with the fact that even an HDFC Bank currently today stands under threat because of all the you know what everybody calls fintech all the technology changes we're seeing happen to the financial payments business right so how when do you judge that well this has been a great investment but it's time to get out yeah so we are still not seeing signs of Technology hurting them probably technolog is helping them they're in the Forefront of Technology implementation but uh one has to remain open to complete digital migration now it could be third level of value migration where from PSU Bank it came to first generation private sector bank and from first generation PR private sector Bank to it go it can the value can migrate very rapidly to Second Generation digital Banks but we are yet not seeing sign up somebody has to make money yes of course so when migration happens it's a better business model so you have to see because this is a very large profit gr I mean in in banking system you make almost a lak CR profit so profit pool is very large right now because of depression in public sector Banks otherwise private sector itself must be making upwards of 30 40,000 okay so this is a very large profit pool so somebody has to show me that I have opened a dig bank and it is making th000 profit and it is looking to be the way to go and it is a threat to HDC bank so by that time we're not we're not slipping okay okay one final question and it's coming from a viewer and he asks can you suggest any good books to read and I thought that's a good note to end on you can run your camera across the bookshelf we'll do that no but any a couple of you know I because we run a very uh popular sort of segment on Bloomberg Quint as well called libraries of leaders and you know where we track the books that people read and the books that Inspire leaders like yourself the book reading is a big game you know I mean in the sense that what is that uh uh for a startup I mean the best read on investing is those uh 40 50 years of letters of world Buffett okay if you are a Buffett B if you're not in that then also you should read actually okay so that that will definitely take you from a level to different level second you can you can see these are all heroes you have to find basically say Peter Lynch or Benjamin Graham security and intelligent investor then you have fil Fisher yes Common Stocks and common profits that's a absolute must read in fact all the Tres they come here for 2 months we give them I mean we give a and we expect them to do the Scuttle but and that's what tells you what to do actually qglp is nothing but basically Scuttle but much more you know you know uh uh understandable fashion so I mean a company is a company it's a story it's a you know somebody's Journey uh it's a piece of art so how do you figure out which piece of art is valuable what are the things you look for and in that piece of art what I try to look for is that which company or which piece of art is going to make a lot of money you make only as much money as the company makes so we our job is only to figure out not this Global macros and all we have to figure out who is going to make money do you read anything but Financial books any fiction non-fiction bwood Bollywood yes after Friday it's all like today is Friday now uh you know party starts okay let us not delay you to the party then Mr agal you've been very generous with your time and we're very sorry if we've exceeded it thank you so much
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