저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2022년 3-4월 경제지표 캘린더를 정리하며 고용·재고·GDP·PCE·CPI·PPI 발표를 주요 촉매로 꼽음. 전쟁 이후 인플레이션이 에너지·곡물 중심으로 높게 나올 가능성과 Fed 긴축 우려를 강조. 4월 중순 세금 납부 시기 매도 압력 가능성도 언급. 개별 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 방향 예측은 거의 없음. 대부분 강의/유료 프로그램 홍보.
다듬은 글
catalyst states that you've got to pay attention to if you're long term on investing or you're short term run investing you're trading and ultimately you want to look for good opportunities to get into stocks and these catalyst dates i believe will help you of course keep in mind that yes there is a beautiful coupon code expiring tonight on the amazing programs on building your wealth probably won't increase the price until tomorrow though so you still have a few extra hours if you want stocks or with real estate investing your property management or sales or youtube you name it there's some incredibl all the content regularly updating it and you get me in the private live streams where we can talk about your situation directly so check those out link down below remember get lifetime access okay first one that we got to pay attention to coming up uh has to do with jobs we're gonna get a jobs report on april 1st it's the first friday of the month which is usually when we get a jobs report unless of course we had a short month prior to that then they kicked the jobs report back a week but this month we will have the jobs report on april 1st what you're looking here or for here is the month over month change in pay for people higher pay for people on a month over month change is a good thing but not good in terms of the potential for an inflationary spiral last month this came in at a month over month change of absolutely zero that his wages were flat for the month of february what about march we'll see so write that one down april 1st the next one that you want to pick that you want to track comes out uh and it should probably i'll go in order from now on the next one that you should track is actually on march 28th and this is retail inventories that is actually a monday release it comes out monday at 8 30 a.m eastern time and you'll have wholesale inventories at the same time generally what we're expecting here is to see a slight increase in wholesale inventories this is the amount of product that wholesalers have and we're seeing sort of this kathy woody and style of increase of inventories partially because a more inventories are in transit and partially because b maybe we're starting to see a backlog of inventories in certain sectors that could eventually lead to deflationary pressures we'll see retail inventories are expected to come in lower than last month at one point four percent huge deviation in either of these are going to be implications for inflation higher inventories less inflation lower inventories more inflation then uh we're going to be seeing jolts job openings we expect this to come in strong march 29th at 10 a.m eastern time all times from now on will be eastern we're expecting 11 million job openings which is ridiculous uh there i'm gonna skip mortgages and real estate because really real estate is an entirely different video that we should be talking about and as mortgage rates go up we are going to see downward pressure on real estate prices how much they come down will likely be uh limited just based on the amount of demand that is pent up but we're going to focus on stocks here and the big one is going to be the gdp report for the first quarter this is actually going to be a big day and it comes out march 30th which is kind of weird because the quarter is not technically over yet but uh annualized gdp comes out and we're expecting this to come in at seven percent uh as an annualized rate of gdp change so we'll keep an eye on how our gdp growth is moving and the federal reserve of course is expecting gdp to fall as low as 2.9 by the end of the year the more gdp declines the more concerns will rise about a potential recession and of course in a recession the last thing you want to own are stocks so anything that indicates the potential of a recession coming is is definitely a problem we're going to get a pce which is the personal consumption expenditures measure this is the federal reserve's measure of inflation this in my opinion not so terribly important since generally most uh most of the stock market seems to react to cpi though this will come out on the 31st then on the first as i mentioned we'll have the employment reading we'll also two days prior to the first get an adp employment report that employment report is the private payrolls changes it is a private company that does this it usually gives you a little bit of a heads up in terms of what you might expect to see in the official unemployment report that friday but generally the one people are going to focus on is friday april 1.
the one that comes out at 8 15 a.m eastern time on uh wednesday is generally generally has less of an impact on the market then the next thing that we're going to probably be paying attention to before we get to cpi which comes out soon soon will probably have to do with the ism services index the reason we're going to be looking at this which comes out on april 5th is because we believe that if inflation in goods goes down one of the things that could keep inflation going would be inflation and services and so a more booming services economy could actually help keep inflation higher which would of course not be good for the market so we'll keep an eye on that expectation is 58 and the number over 50 is growth that comes out april 5th at 10 a.m eastern time then we get cpi we're going to be looking for that cpi month over month information survey estimates are not in yet for april or for march rather but this is the cpi report that is probably going to be the worst one that we've seen honestly like ever this could end up being one of the peak reports because it's after the war has begun uh it should fully reflect a full month of high gasoline prices in in at the pumps remember that cpi likes to divide a month into three equal segments take an average price of those three snapshots average it together and then you get an estimate for energy style inflation well remember the invasion into ukraine happened february 24th so you're really only getting a ladder snapshot there so in other words you're expecting higher inflation in that march report especially food and commodity prices right wheat neon input cost some of these input costs are going to show up in producer price inflation but those could trickle into consumer price inflation speaking of which though producer price inflation will be able to analyze that report it's going to be a busy week the very next day on april 13th and what you're looking for in both these reports is going to be the month over month change how how ugly was inflation from this war did we go from point eight percent to one percent and if you think about if we went from point eight percent to one percent all you have to do to annualize it to get sort of an annualized speed as you multiply it by twelve so we get a one percent read on a month over month that's an annualized rate of 12 inflation that's gonna get scary and that'll that'll get priced in the market so you'll you'll see some pain here we don't actually have the federal reserve in april we uh we won't be hearing from the fed until the beginning of may thank goodness we are going to get uh consumer uh sort of the preliminary read on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations you get this twice a month the preliminary in the final we'll get the preliminary on april 14th that'll come out at 10 a.m eastern time then we'll get some real estate statistics around the 21st and 22nd but more important i personally think is going to be that consumer confidence figure that we'll get by april 26th and we want to see some confidence start getting restored and then we'll be at inventories again by the end of april on april 27th at 8 30 a.m but no big fed events planned for april if we got anything from the fed it would be a shocker and and think about if we got any kind of shocker from the fed it would essentially be the equivalent of a rug poll that would be very very bad for markets i mean you could see a dow jones down 10 day very quickly we don't actually expect that i would say the real big ones to pay attention to for april coming up here jobs report we want to see wage price spiral or no so far the answer has been no cpi how bad is that month over month going to be ppi producer price inflation how bad is that month over month going to be and and then of course expectations are always very important to measure what's happening with inflation expectations you really want to watch that that's a big deal for the federal reserve inventories in my opinion do matter as well because they could be a little bit of a leading indicator in terms of what you might expect for future inflation so these are some of our big catalyst dates coming up for april we also though and this is important to consider have a tax filing deadline mid-april and oftentimes during tax filing time you tend to have less buying pressure and potentially more selling pressure because people need money to pay their tax bill unless of course they go on extension although even though technically if they go on extension they still have to make their payment some people might choose to pay the penalty rate about six percent annualized per year check that with your cpa but anyway uh there is a potential for a lack of buying pressure and increased selling pressure in the middle of the month which unfortunately is going to be right around the time of cpi so you could end up seeing a rough period of time somewhere between that april 8th period maybe april 15th just slightly before and after that cpi data though usually most of your pain tends to come before catalyst events so if i had to look at a calendar and and sort of guess i would say that we're somewhat i'm not expecting drama coming out of the jobs report on april 1st i think and this week we had a lot of fed speak which it was really supposed to be a quiet week this week i would say the week of the 28th to april 1st should be relatively benign especially if we get a good jobs report on the first which i expect we will then i'll expect that between the fourth and the eighth things will also be pretty relaxed so we could be setting up for a nice potential two-week rally fingers crossed though you're going to start getting some fears priced in for high inflation probably around the 7th or 8th when we start thinking about oh well the cpi report comes out on the 12th next week which would be tuesday april 12th and uh yeah and then ppi the very next day yeah people are going to want to wait for that because it'll send signals to the market about what the federal reserve should do if let's just say inflation came in at some ridiculous level so ridiculously high and that inflation was broad-based where it wasn't just isolated to energies or commodities related to war then that's a sign that inflation is getting entrenched and the fed might have to come out and pull a dirty on us that is either a dirty rug pool unexpectedly or just straight up in our face on their next fomc meeting which again is not until the beginning of may so goodbye j pal take a month off we don't want to hear from you for a little bit but what we do want to hear from is me and those private course member live streams where you can get my perspectives one-on-one with me when you ask a question of course it's a larger group of individuals who come into the live streams but when i answer your question i try to dedicate time to uh your question that you provide uh and yeah i look forward to having you check 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