저자: TomLee · 외국인
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향후 6~10월 사이 대형 IPO 소화와 연준 신임 의장 인플레 모델 불확실성으로 조정 가능성을 언급하며, 10월 이후 강한 랠리를 예상. 비트코인·이더리움은 네트워크 사용량·토큰화 확대를 근거로 장기 상승 논리를 제시. 팔란티어는 DA Davidson 상향 소식 언급. 엔비디아는 메모리(마이크론·SK하이닉스) 수요 확대 맥락에서 설명되었으나 직접적 가격 전망은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
The money moves on, so there will be a rise in software that benefits from artificial intelligence. But between, say, June and October, we'll have to digest potentially three big IPOs, and the market will be trying to understand Kevin Warsh's new inflation model , but I think the market is always testing a new Fed.
And then we have the usual seasonality around the midterm elections, so I think we could have a downturn that would feel like a "bear" market. And, as you know, February- April was only a 9 percent drop , but it felt like a crash. So I think the markets will really struggle if we start to experience a downturn.
And then, of course, starting in October, I think a strong, very strong rally will begin. Andrew Ross Sorkin, I was going to say how wrong you were about cryptocurrency, but I do n't know if that's what you're talking about. in a slightly different place, and we could do that too, but I was going to ask him about Mark Cuban.
I don't know if you saw Mark Cuban say that he has now dumped or sold all of his Bitcoin because he no longer believes it acts as a hedge against inflation or anything. Argues that gold has proven to be a better bet, and that Bitcoin is not behaving as it should if it is to be digital gold. What do you say?
Well, you know, on the one hand, I think Mark is right. Crypto is disappointing because it should move with the stock markets and grow with the software. Software began to grow significantly, but crypto did not budge . So I think there are those who I would call those who are furiously throwing everything around, selling here as if something is wrong.
So, first of all, I think this always happens at the end of "cryptozymes." You know, if someone asked me if the Bitcoin or Ethereum thesis was broken? You know, not at all. Because, first of all , the more we work, and we hear this from founders like Palantir, bitcoin, and ethereum—this is really the future of money, because mass and computing power, whatever Elon says, is really in short supply, and you're going to need control agent systems.
And as AI systems evolve, right? We are now talking about using commerce and managing websites , you need decentralized identification and verification. This is really what crypto does. And we know that Wall Street wants to move towards tokenization. This is a significant increase in the efficiency of how money actually moves, and it is an innovation.
Well, this only happens with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other smart contracts. So, the future hasn't changed, but today the focus is, of course, on semiconductors, memory, starting with software. But when people focus on the future, I think that's when the demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum will emerge. Because when you talk about stocks, it was so easy for you.
You did it. You did it. $10 multiplied by 4, that's, you know, $40. Add the coefficient and that's 800 points. Why are you even trying? With Bitcoin or Ethereum? What comparative analysis do you have to make any predictions about Bitcoin or Ethereum? There's nothing to base it on , Tom, except maybe psychology, sentiment, or something like that.
Yes, um, well, actually market sentiment plays a huge role, because it's essentially a risk premium, but there are two proven ways to value cryptocurrency. One, of course, is simply network usage, as the number of wallets and activity per wallet still explain 87% of Bitcoin's growth even now . So, as long as more people use it and make transactions, the value of Bitcoin should increase.
This is a network effect. And the second is the comparative value of gold. You know, if Bitcoin had the same network value as gold when it hit 5,000, and gold is n't as rare as Bitcoin, that would push the price of Bitcoin up to about 2 million. So, in my opinion, there are two more ways to look at its value.
And of course, for Ethereum, it has been proven: for every dollar of tokenized assets, say, tokenized dollars or others, 1 dollar of value is created for the ETH coin. So, if you believe that Wall Street will pursue tokenization, the price of Ethereum should increase significantly. Of course, this doesn't tell us the story that this stock is about 20% above the lows reached just a few sessions ago.
And about 35-40% lower than the highs it, of course, set in October- November last year. We invite our guest. You know her well, Marley Caden. She is the host of Trading 360, which will be released next, as well as Market On Close here on the Schwab network, and Marley. Palantir is simply an exciting company, not only from a trading perspective, but also because of the projects it is working on and the niche it occupies.
Add volatility to this. This is like a recipe for a new generation investment asset. That's right. I mean, we seem to randomly experience the fear of missing out (FOMO). We're just not discussing this on the show right now . But you highlighted some of the fluctuations in Palantir's stock price. They have fallen 26% this year alone after three consecutive years of triple-digit growth.
So, looking at the price dynamics of this asset, it is extremely volatile, but today it is showing a good result. We are trading almost 4.5% higher after DA Davidson upgraded the company. They now have a " buy" rating, as opposed to the "neutral" rating they had before. New target price—175. This is higher than the previous 165.
Both marks are higher than the current value. We are at 131.48. They say the company has, quote, "grown up" to its valuation because earnings have grown significantly and the stock's multiple has declined. This gives investors what they call a gift just in time for the 250th anniversary of the United States of America.
They argue that Palantir has several competitive advantages over all other prominent thanks to AI. They believe these latest developments show why clients will use Palantir as a way to manage AI models. I want to break this down in more detail because it's a little complicated. The company can now replace the AI model in its solution, which eliminates the biggest perceived threat to its business model—the idea that companies can turn to Anthropic or OpenAI to solve their problems.
If you've been following Nvidia lately, you've probably noticed something that does n't seem very logical. Business continues to strengthen, and the demand for artificial intelligence has not disappeared. Wall Street, as before, mostly recommends buying these stocks. And yet Nvidia has been on the sidelines for months while other AI companies are gaining investor attention.
So what is really happening? Is the market quietly telling us that Nvidia's best days are behind us? Or is this just a rare opportunity where the stock price has lagged behind the business itself? Let's dig into this. One thing has become abundantly clear over the past few weeks: the AI investment story is no longer just about Nvidia.
The market is starting to divide the entire AI ecosystem into different levels. At the center is Nvidia, and around it are companies supplying memory, networking equipment, cooling systems, manufacturing equipment, and energy infrastructure. Each of these businesses depends on whether AI spending continues.
That's why investors are starting to ask an important question. Instead of buying Nvidia itself, should we buy companies that benefit from its success? Memory has become one of the best examples of this. Without advanced memory, Nvidia GPUs simply cannot deliver the performance required for modern AI models.
Each level of large models requires more memory, and each AI agent requires more context. Each output request consumes memory bandwidth. That's why companies like Micron and SK Hynix have suddenly become some of the hottest in the semiconductor industry. Micron keeps saying that demand exceeds supply .
Customers are signing long-term deals, production remains stable, but the stock is still trading at a surprisingly modest valuation compared to many other AI winners. At the same time, SK Hynix has become a dominant supplier s in Nvidia's latest AI systems. Now that US investors have easier access to SK Hynix through its Nasdaq listing, many portfolio managers see this as another way to gain access to AI.
This doesn't mean Nvidia has become less important. In fact, it's the opposite. Every memory discussion ultimately comes down to Nvidia. If Nvidia ships more GPUs, the demand for memory increases. And if Nvidia releases faster chips, customers need even more advanced memory. If spending on AI infrastructure accelerates, nearly everyone in the semiconductor supply chain will benefit .
That's why Nvidia remains the heartbeat of this entire industry. Interestingly, Nvidia's valuation tells a very different story than its business. Revenue continues to grow rapidly, and margins remain incredibly high. Free cash flow will continue to grow, its software ecosystem will expand, and the stock is currently trading at its lowest valuation in years.
This disagreement is forcing investors to split into two camps. The first group believes that Nvidia is simply scaling. Their argument is simple. The company still dominates the field of AI computing. Its competitive advantages have not disappeared. Its customer base continues to expand, and new growth opportunities such as enterprise AI, robotics, sovereign AI, and inference could sustain demand for years.
For them, today's assessment looks unusually attractive. The second group sees the situation differently. They argue that Nvidia has become so successful that expectations have reached impossible levels. Ultimately, revenue growth is set to slow, competition from specialized AI chips will increase, and large cloud providers will continue to develop their own silicon.
And once growth normalizes, Nvidia could become more like a traditional semiconductor company.
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