저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
미 연준의 공격적 긴축으로 미국·유럽·중국이 사실상 경기침체에 들어갔다고 판단. 인플레이션보다 디플레이션 위험이 더 크다고 주장. 주식·채권·원자재·크립토 급락 후 연준이 10월(해당 달) 회의에서 입장을 재고할 것이라 봄. 비트코인은 1.95만 달러대로 200주 이동평균(2.25만) 아래라 저항 우려 언급. 혁신주는 1년간 50~75% 하락. 유가 상승은 저소득층 세금 부담.
다듬은 글
The bad news is that the Fed has become extremely aggressive and hawkish. The good news is that we are beginning to get data that is confirming uh that the economy the US economy is in recession and and if you've tuned in before you you know that we believe that that Europe and China effectively have been in recession as well.
So now a global recession. uh we're also getting a lot of indicators that uh prices are coming down and I think this notion that the inflation that everyone has been worried about uh is is quite uh quite a wrong way of looking at the world right now. Uh we believe that deflation is the much bigger risk.
We've been saying this for a time. Uh we've been ridiculed for saying it. uh and we were challenged by those who were sure that we were back into a 70s style inflation uh scenario. Uh we think that that the the pricing action uh and I'm not just talking about stocks and bonds. I'm talking about commodity prices uh crypto uh prices uh and and perhaps soon even housing prices uh that uh many people will conclude the greater risk is deflation and as you know uh we don't think deflation is a bad thing per se.
It is a bad thing. Uh the way the Fed has approached it, we believe. Um but deflation can be a very good thing if it is caused by technology and progress. And we think we're going to see a lot of that over the years. Uh but right now we're looking at bad deflation and uh we're we're going to have to get through this.
I think uh the next Fed move is supposed to be at the end of this month and uh the Fed is out of its quiet period. So all the Fed governors have been trapesing out saying we're going 75 basis points, another 75 basis points. Um well, we think that they will rethink that this uh in this month as we get uh not only more pricing signals, but earnings reports and guidance for for from companies who uh will be probably confirming that the US is now in recession.
So, bad news, good news. Uh, darkest before the dawn. Um, we called this segment, uh, finding growth. We think growth is going to be scarce this year. And as you know, innovation is all about growth. Innovation is also about solving problems. We have a lot of problems now. A recession is going to be uh providing another set of problems.
So, crypto had its worst quarter since 2011. Um, and it's a much more mature market than it was back then with the boom bust. So, that's saying something. Uh, the S&P down 20% year-to date. NASDAQ down roughly 30%. Uh, so the stock market has not seen a worse a worse year to date since 1962. And uh and that was when the Cuban crystal uh missile crisis took place.
Uh and then what happened after that is we ended up uh in the great society guns and butter and uh inflation took off. But first the stock market was was a barn burner. It was uh very hot from 62 to 66. Uh when it comes to bonds, uh this has been the worst yearto-date performance in bonds in anyone's lifetime.
Um and by some measures, you have to peacemeal uh the bonds, but uh to to try and get the record. Uh the worst since 1788. Uh you know, that's more than 250 years ago. So uh or almost 250 years ago. So it's been a very very rough rough market for investors. Uh we think there is light at the end of the tunnel.
The light is that the Fed is getting a lot of uh signals that will ultimately end up in the lagging indicators called the PPI and the CPI. uh they're getting a lot of indicators and I think a lot of companies are going to be telegraphing in their earnings reports this next month that we are in recession and I do believe the Fed uh will do a a double take.
I want to spend uh a little time on crypto. It has been an incredible month and fears of systemic collapse have been rife in the marketplace. Uh so we we've seen uh Bitcoin it peaked way back in November at 69,000 and it is now at 19 point uh 19,500. Um uh it is still higher than its precoid 7 to 10,000 range and it is just about at its uh 20 uh 2017 high.
So this could be some support. It's also at um it's it's it is below its uh its 200 week moving average uh which is at 22,500. So there is some concern that that is the new resistance. Now as we've seen the last month play out. Talk about um a reach for yield. Crypto personified that. DeFi personified that.
uh when uh and and we knew that uh the Luna Terra experiment with algorithmic stable stable coins was not going to work. It was backed by nothing and uh I remember we did a podcast with Doco. It's still on our site and I remember listening to it twice because I I couldn't understand what he was doing or saying.
I am an economist uh by background uh and and so I I really do try and noodle through these things and I just didn't think that was going to work uh and it failed in spectacular fashion in in May uh and uh and has taken Celsius down with it. uh Voyager Digital uh three-hour arrows capital uh BlockFi almost it was very interesting uh to see BlockFi's last funding round at $3 billion.
This is a lending platform and uh tried to do another round recently at $1 billion. uh he couldn't get it done and today it seems that uh FTX um is going to uh is going to buy it out or it has the option to buy the equity for 240 million. A rumor this week had it at 25 million. So much better than that but much worse less than a tenth of its last round.
Uh so and it's not just happening in crypto. uh CLA just announced I I believe that its last round was in the $4 billion range. This is a fintech company and uh it is doing around now at six and a half billion dollars. So big big downs happening very quickly uh how rapidly the world is going to change.
But Raul said something uh I thought very important and it does address an elephant in the room. Um we know that innovation in the equity markets the public equity markets not the private equity markets has been ravaged in the last year it's about a year that it has been ravaged and Raul uh mentioned that when there is a change in expectations and last year as we were getting our vaccinations uh the the thought that the economy would open up and uh and interest rates would go up inflation would go up but would uh be be tamed.
Um during during the year there was a change. The supply chain issues did not go away and uh and so this fear about what inflation and interest rates are going to do has gripped the market. Uh first it gripped the innovation space almost exclusively uh in a puzzling way. Uh now it seems to be affecting the market a little more broadly.
But I will say now that the two-year Treasury and the and the market itself has priced in at least four interest rate hikes uh that this this possibility is priced in the equity markets too increasingly. And if anything, oil prices going up uh are are an incredibly burdensome tax on uh on the lowest socioeconomic uh uh demographic sectors in our economy.
So I think the the fears here are going to shift from rising interest rates and and higher inflation uh potentially to recession especially and you've heard me on this before uh because we see inventories piling up uh throughout the ecosystem. So innovation stocks in the public equity markets are down I'm going to say broadly 50 to 75% in the last year.
That's it guys from here today. Thank you so much for watching. Please hit the like button and do subscribe if you haven't already. Thank you so much for watching, guys. I hope you all have a good day.
Comments 0