저자: Kevin · 외국인
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1월 ISM 서비스업 지수의 지불가격 급등이 스태그플레이션 우려를 촉발해 나스닥 하락. 시장은 금리 장기 고금리 우려에 반응 중이나 실제 물가 재가속은 아니며 관세 선행 구매 효과 가능성. 자금조달 스프레드 상승(레버리지 확대)과 2022형 하락 경고(Howard Marks 등 인용)를 위험 신호로 제시. 다만 단기 기술적 매도 압력은 있으나 과도한 공포 경계 필요.
다듬은 글
oh boy horrible data on the economy this morning suggesting stagflation we're going to dive deep to see if that's actually what's going on but in the meantime it is leading Futures funding spreads and hedge funds to indicate that institutions are dumping stocks and they're not just dumping stocks to sell they're dumping to cover all the debt they took on to buy stocks in the rally over the last 6 months we got to talk about this and explained why the NASDAQ dropped 1.78% today why micro strategy was down 99.9% coin base down 8% paler down 7.8 Tesla was down 4% Red Robin cormet Burgers down 6% a lot to talk about here Mark Zuck also wants to end censorship and move to Texas yeah a lot to unpackage on that one I'll give you the quick scoop on that and give you my opinion on this and Donald Trump apparently wants to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal and may use the military if necessary we'll talk about that don't worry we we will go deep on these items we've also got some folks talking about losing money on real estate investments in Austin Texas and debating whether they should sell the property or rent it out I'll give you my opinion on what's going on in this video California is also on fire again with wins potentially up to one 100 mph later today right now gusts around 50 to 70 mph knocking down power lines especially around the LA area causing the Pacific Palisades to Now Catch Fire oh boy there is a lot so let's get started on this meet Kevin report news that makes you money first let's start with macro data like I said wow this hit hard now I went deep on this with course members this morning as the data came out we were standing by with almost a thousand of y'all course members live together and many more thousands of you afterwards who watched it on replay already but the ism numbers and joltz numbers that came out this morning really shook markets things were green until this data came out oh boy so what happened well we had more job openings than expected which should be a good thing in fact we had sign significantly more expansion in professional and business services in November than we expected now keep in mind this jolts data references November so it's kind of post Trump election people think it's sort of the Trump bump and so it indicates White Collar hiring which is good because that's been an area that's been lagging for a while so it's unclear if this is going to keep going if these job openings are actually going to turn into real hiring but both on the seasonally adjusted and on season adjusted we saw a significant bump in professional and business services hiring which seems to be good right this this is a good thing we we see more potential hiring we did see the quits rate move down to 1.9% from 2.1% which usually you see that in rougher economies people don't want to quit their job because it's harder to get a new job talked a lot about that yesterday and the layoff rate did take up a smidge to 1.1% from 1.0 none of that really a big deal if anything this joltz report should have been nice it was kind kind of a good jolts report I mean really if you look at what Nick T wrote this morning there's really no major fear that should be coming out of these numbers in terms of the jolts report telling us one thing or another other than the layoff rate remains low the job quitting rate is pretty low which we usually only see that tank in a recession the hiring rate is pretty low as well we're back at 2010 2009 levels in the hiring rate which isn't great but you did see a take up in the opening rate so this should be optimistic where the market should be looking at this going oh okay you know maybe things are turning around maybe the job market is stabilizing just like the Federal Reserve wants well unfortunately the ism data for December which came out this morning gave us much better insight into what's actually going on and I'll tell you it's exactly why the market took a little tanky dud lot today and it ain't great so the ism Services data came out and led to almost an instantaneous selloff on stagflationary fears why it's simple the services index came in a little bit hotter than expected no big deal everything was a little warmer than expected frankly in November and December thanks again to the Trump bump but the Price's paid section came in at 64.4 versus 57.5 expected in 582 prior in English the market hat hates the idea about the FED potentially keeping rates higher be for longer because of an inflationary impetus so this is really bad the employment and New Order numbers came out as expected but the market absolutely hates seeing that rates could go even higher and higher is exactly where they went the 10e is almost at 4.7 which is wild the 2 years only sitting at 4.29 but that's also pretty decent ly high but when you spread those you get a spread of 40 basis points remember what happens between 50 to 90 basis points of a spread which we're Rising towards pain in markets usually in fact sometimes actually almost always after an inversion of the Y curve of recession we're at 40 now so we keep getting closer and closer and closer to that breaking point now why like what was in this data because what this data really feels like or what the market is reacting with is almost this feeling that you're in a and I apologize in advance for the constant Aviation references but I feel like we're we're in a plane and everybody's kind of looking at the plane like this where it's like okay it's nose up oh it must be climbing look at that beautiful plane up there look nose up it's climbing and then you get some of this hot data it's like oh look look it keeps tipping its nose up it's nose up oh look it's it's it's climbing this is wonderful you know everybody looking in from the outside including the Federal Reserve is like oh look the economy is doing great it's gaining altitude we're not coming in for a soft Landing we got no Landing baby but Pilots look at this or a lot of economists looking at the data and they're like you're setting up for a stall and stalls don't happen gently when a plane stalls the nose of that sucker tanks and things happen extremely rapidly in a stall it's not good I mean that's also how you cure stall you you know NOS down right we can talk all about that later we'll do that in an aviation video but the point is the stall brings you to a ground pretty dang rapidly and that's what people are afraid of right now that potentially everything looks like as we're losing that speed and losing momentum it looks like we're still chugging along people are like see everything's fine but really we're in such an unstable position that soon we might be feeling why oh because the Federal Reserve is telling us oh we got to be worried about inflation again so we're going to keep rates higher for longer do we though is that actually what this ISM data told us well not in my opinion because when I went deep into the ism data I found the following I found that on average over the last 4 months the number of businesses reporting the same prices over the last 4 months was 73.6 5% today in today's report we had 73.4% in other words below that average but let's just call it the same no change in prices paid the vast majority of businesses almost three out of every four businesses said nothing's changing in prices okay well then why did this index on the right side go up so much well it's because the number of businesses that reported lower prices fell in December only 2.9 and you had a little bit of an uptake like in September of the percentage higher and that led this index higher now this doesn't actually suggests that there's a rapid expansion of prices it suggests that in certain fringes prices are moving and we're getting volatility in this data so the market is potentially responding to stagflationary fears that aren't actually stagflationary I mean look at Germany Germany just came out with a hot CPI report an inflation report everybody's like oh my gosh I thought Germany was in recession this must be stagflationary well nobody actually Dives a little bit deeper did you know this I'm going to guess you didn't and it is okay but did you know that Germany doesn't actually report core CPI maybe you did maybe didn't doesn't matter the point is we're reacting to Germany's hot CPI and when we pull back the layer we go oh that's because of food and energy and why are Energy prices going up well natural gas is skyrocketing why because it's winter and there are reports of potential polar winds coming in again thing that happens every few years it leads natural gas prices whether through speculation or reality to Skyrocket that's just what's been happening so what a surprise but the point is the market doesn't really care in the short term the Market's just going to trade based off of what whatever the market thinks at that time and the move and and what's working at the time and the move that's working right now is yep everything stagflationary sell bonds and inflation's coming back so that is what's taking hold right now and once that trade gets going it accelerates there's a problem with that we're going to talk about that problem in just a moment and it has a lot to do with debt because there is a chart that is warning of really big change in the ways that institutions are responding to the amount of debt that they have outstanding this is a big red flag we got to talk about it along with what Donald Trump said today what's going on with Facebook and the real estate topic a lot but before we keep going on some of those other topics we really got to finish this ISM talk because yes there are stagflationary fears but I want you to look at some of the commentary that's coming out over why there might be some fears about prices going up let's look at what the ism report actually said that respondents are actually talking about when it comes to inflation prices or business activity and services quote preparations are underway to diversify Supply in anticipation for tariffs all right if in Q4 you buy a bunch of goods or you basically set yourself up for tariffs to affect your business you might Overstock in the fourth quarter this is bad because if you don't sell out all of that in the first quarter you end up with too much stuff too many goods and supplies or service time and then you have to cut your prices and you actually end up with deflation so it's weird but the market always seems to work in these really contrarian ways today everybody's like oh no oh no oh no stagflation mark my words if things keep going the way they are we'll be in q1 or Q2 and we'll be screaming about deflation because maybe the tariffs didn't conduct the or cause the inflation that we were expecting or because people just overstocked in the fourth quarter because of fears over tariffs which may not even come we talked about Trump and tariffs yesterday but I'll tell you this I know Trump looks at the stock market every single day if the stock market's red he ain't going to do tariffs because he'll threaten tariffs but he'll be too nervous about the market crashing and then that being a scar in his legacy so take a look at this this is Extreme here's a construction industry tariff threats from incoming admin from the incoming Administration have been making suppliers reluctant to hold pricing for more than a year as projects can take 2 years plus budgeting is getting difficult similar to 2021 and 2022 when supply chain disruptions caused chaos in pricing wait a minute so you're telling me the crisis we're seeing right now in stagflation is because of fear that maybe there will be tariffs and everybody's buying stuff like crazy now well if that's true then this prices paid level going up new orders level going up and basically you know numbers going up like ISM you know manufacturing or Services the headline numbers going up those are all fugazi built up for the fourth quarter and I don't know that's going to repeat in q1 because people are prepared preparing for that uncertainty and apparently in an extreme way to where now all of a sudden there are quite literally it's listed in a different section of this ISM report but backlogs of containers that need to be unloaded because of so much buying now originally or I should say ordinarily we would look at that and say oh this is a sign of a really strong economy right really good economy but so far everything everybody is telling us is it's because of tariffs not because of massive demand if anything what we see is we're moving workers offshore to save on costs that's companies taking it in the margin because their pee's too small we are concerned about tariff activity but we're hoping for the best there seems to be a lot of uncertainty about tariffs and purchasing decisions a lot of weight and C customers are slowing down okay so a lot of anticipation of tariffs leading to potentially a bump of these num numbers and some skewing of numbers that on average are not stagflationary and forget the average for a moment when you actually read company earnings calls you should know that we're not in a reinflation era but that's not going to stop markets from Trading as if we are the problem is the more the markets trade as if they're stagflation the higher bond yields go all we're doing is driving up the nose of of that plane more and more and more and the more we do that the more we're pulling back on the stick the more violent the stall is going to be and those rates will come down plummeting rapidly unfortunately and likely with a recession so anyway what does all of this mean well in my opinion the pendulum is swinging to far to the stagflationary side because of reports like this now the bottom line here is the setup should be a cause for concern and when we look at something like the funding markets we could see what's going on with institutionalsales take a look at this this is called a funding spreads chart I'm going to try to explain this as simply as possible let's pretend for a moment that instead of saying funding spreads this said cost to borrow okay that's a little bit easier to understand when nobody wants to borrow debt borrow you know money to buy stocks what do you think happens to the cost to borrow well with plummets because it's like oh nobody's borrowing all right let's lower the cost until people borrow again what do you think happens when everybody wants to borrow debt money to go buy stocks well the cost to borrow goes up okay the red line is the cost to borrow line up up up up up up up up up up up up up notice how as the cost to borrow goes up because more people are taking on more debt institutions hedge funds retail you name it everybody's going in on margin because the stock market can't fall I literally see comments of people saying things like you know Kevin I don't think there could be a market correction because everybody has an app in their pocket today where they can buy stocks and they're just going to buy the debt so therefore there could never be a stock market correction again okay there's sure as hell of a sign enough for me anyway as you notice when the line goes up it implies more people are borrowing to go buy stocks and wow what a surprise the S&P 500 went up with that line well what's happened since December 18th well according to John Marshall of S&T who has published a quote significant warning the funding spread plummeting is a really big red flag the reason you have this really big red flag is because on December 18th Jerome Powell flip-flopped and it marked the peak the flip-flop in the funding spreads level on December 18th Drome Powell told us that they want to keep rates higher in essence because of impending tariffs two months before that he told us we're just going to wait to see what happens with tariffs and then we'll react all of a sudden now it's yeah uh we're going to try to Stave off the inflation ahead of time so we'll just keep rates higher for longer basically and pencil and fuel rate Cuts well that led the markets to go oh my gosh fed you all could be making a massive and terrible mistake keeping rates way too high for way too long and ultimately push the economy into that stall Point breaking point and potentially even into an unrecoverable stall because we have so little altitude that red line is a warning sign Mr Marshall I'm going to show you what he wrote I don't want you to think it's me it's Mr Marshall Marshall Marshall he wrote this yesterday mind you before the market started selling off today we view this chart as a significant warning sign for Equity investors the December move was not just year-end related the episode continues to look like a December 2021 move in positioning when worries about monetary policy triggered professional investors selling ahead of the 10-month decline in the S&P 500 in other words he's forecasting a 10-month decline just like in 2022 he also says while Equity valuations have been historically high for many months this is the first time we're seeing significant selling in both of these positioning measures in years hedge funds selling equities in each of the past five sessions and at the fastest Pace in the past seven months 7 plus months uh and then of course that funding chart this is a red flag this is not good and so it's something to pay attention to now is it saying you know Run for the hills sell everything no of course not I I don't ever like to come across as an extremist in fact I always like to come across as suggesting hey I'm going to keep giving you my advice every single day and one place you can sign up for for free for more of this sort of stuff make sure you get my Alpha report every morning uh the market is open just click here if you're us or canidate or here if you're International you can also get my Daily Wealth email if you want you can click on that it's over at meetkevin.com you can check uh check out the website I actually built the website myself so don't make fun of me but I kind of I like doing stuff myself sometimes but anyway so uh let me know if there are any bugs I will fix them but anyway uh so sorry for all the aviation analogies let's keep moving on with what's really important oh history what does history tell us usually when the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates rates fall but rates have now risen 110 basis points as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 100 basis points there were two times this has happened in history before one was 1998 which did not come after an inverted yield curve and and it came while employment was expanding the 27 weeks unemployed number was actually declining like things were actually good in the economy in ' 98 the other time absent that good data was 2001 leaving us similar to the 2001 level in history which isn't great because obviously that led to about an 18mon sell-off in the stock market and a lot of people pissed about investing in stocks all of a sudden all the people with apps in their pockets are pulling the apps out anymore Howard marks in his latest credit memo has five cautionary warnings valuations an enthusiasm bubble around AI mag 7 concentration passive index buying and suggest that a sharp and sudden selloff is possible just like thec bubble which to me feels exactly like the jolts measure or not the jolts the stall measure I've been talking about anyway enough about the market let's talk a little bit more micro Mark Zuckerberg had a lot to say today about censorship in fact they're now going to copy Community notes this is very interesting he literally shouted out X I mean obviously everybody was going to make the comparison anyway so we got ahead of that by saying hey we're to do community notes kind of like how X does it we're going to get rid of fact Checkers and we're going to simplify our policies because complex systems censor things mistakenly too much and fact Checkers are too biased according to reports from employees inside of meta a lot of people say that inside of meta are suggesting that meta is trying to suck up to trumpan and that meta is sending a message that facts no longer matter and that there's going to be an influx of racist and transphobic content but Mark suck says hey we're just going to bring politics back we're going to get rid of the filters we'll solely focus on illegal and high severity issues like serious threats that are are illegal even on X like threatening to kill someone for example we'll remove that but on the rest we'll just Community note stuff and I have to say my opinion this is actually a great thing uh I am as somebody who has the ability to write Community notes I've written very few Community notes but I like to read them what I really enjoy about having that feature though is I get to see uh proposed Community notes for example here Customs and Border Protection announced They seized a rocket launcher and two rocket propelled grenades hidden in a car headed to Mexico again these Rockets were heading to Mexico from the US okay so if I click on the proposed Community note the Rockets featured in the photo lack the booster charge and are inert nonfunctional the RPG shown as non-functional and is a replica training aid I mean that's kind of a useful note and then they sort of give you a link over here in terms of like I guess where you could buy inert RPG replicas kind of interesting I like that extra detail I I wish some more of these proposed Community notes were visible and what I really like is when you go through this sometimes you could just see a uh like a debate going on in the community notes like here I'll just look at Elon Musk for example if we go to Elon he he gets community noted like every single post okay there first one see there's a debate over here oh like the time starmer called Donald Trump a racist and then you get responses over here uh adding some details about who's who uh starmer has supported senior members of the labor party and people leaving links and citations to things you can see these go on for I mean there are like six or seven of these and then you always get these people who just write nnn which is no note needed no note needed stop abusing Community notes honestly it's kind of like a messy Forum but usually the top ones add the most context and people can kind of vote up or down on whether these are useful or not and it's kind of a cool system because it mostly gives people an equal voice especially if you're a community notor uh which I mean theoretically anybody should be able to just join the community notes I put a little app in and in like 3 weeks I was approved didn't do anything special and I haven't done anything with it but I think it's kind of cool so anyway uh I'm a big fan of that also Mark Zuck slammed California by saying that they're going to move their safety and content moderators to Texas instead of California where there will be quote less concern uh over the bias of our teams I think this is mostly a PR move it's basically saying hey everybody thinks that because we're company based in California we're a woke company maybe that's true to some extent uh so by moving our safety and content to Texas that'll balance us out I don't know if that'll actually make any difference at all but big fan of using well frankly Community notes now this is interesting the Associated Press just reported that the new orle sorry not the New Orleans the uh cyber truck bomber outside of the Las Vegas Trump Hotel apparently used generative AI including chat GPT to help plan the attack now that's an interesting one uh they don't really give details on this now not at all that's just sort of like the intro paragraph and then they just give a summary of what happened but apparently searches on chat GPT indicate he was looking for information on explosives ammunition where fireworks were legal where he could buy them uh and and some other aspects again no exact quotes given just rough ideas that he was using chat GPT to help play is attack this is actually one of the reasons that I've mentioned uh to a lot of people before especially those in finance or banking that it's actually not a bad idea that if you use services like GPT that you go into them every so often and just delete all your chats because I do believe that in the future these chats are going to be subpoena and so if you ever get into a lawsuit and you know you put all of your weaknesses or whatever into chat GPT what if somebody can one I don't even know if I can delete it it's not giving me any kind of confirmation that things are deleted oh no oh no who knows maybe it's all stored somewhere anyway right and this is why people say turn off the memory in in the settings for these sort of things but just keep that in mind that your data is out there when you use these apps and that's sort of a good reminder to go in there and uh uh you know delete some of the history that you have I like doing it uh and uh I it actually worked it deleted all my history I think it's a good idea for everybody to do that every so often maybe even weekly okay maybe not so important for everybody but we'll see anyway so that's a little bit on meta I mean really is it a big deal yeah it kind of is I mean it's a win for Elon Musk it's a win for Donald Trump it's basically a shout out to musk and Trump it'll probably help move the stock up it'll make the stock maybe to some seem sort of less woke and maybe you could even put the meta stock in a trumpan ETFs or whatever right so it's probably a good move all around I think Zuck did a great thing here and I'm a big fan of the community noting idea because then the public can sort of vote up the best notes I like that and I think Community noting is a lot better than what you've seen over at Wikipedia which is basically just controlled by people who mostly lean left at least in my experience okay A little bit of drama circulating what's going going on with carvana this is mostly because of the Hindenburg uh hit piece suggesting that some of their growth numbers have been entirely misleading or potentially even fraudulent the CEO went on to CNBC for an interview and when he was asked about how they're becoming more profitable he basically said they're working on efficiencies at the company uh and basically said hey actually I shouldn't even say basically he said I don't want to bore you with the details of how we're becoming more profitable and so that led a lot of people to sort of scratch their heads going I don't I don't I don't know is is like is it that hard to find out like to explain is it that complicated so what are you doing that's making you more profitable then does Hindenburg have a point all I know is carvana was up 5% today so I don't know how much of a difference is making it's down 1% year to date obviously it's down from its 256 Peak but it's way up from where it was at like $4 a share uh at the end of 202 to when the company was about to go bankrupt had it not been for renegotiating with its Bond holders they would have probably gone bankrupt and obviously in renegotiating they were able to reestablish themselves so good for them and we could do a deep dive video on carvana leave me a comment in the uh notes down below if you want but just a super quick look at what's going on at carvana you could definitely see growth in Topline Revenue which people generally like looking for this is a 30 % growth rate in retail vehicle sales and when you look at net income you can see net income well is a lot less but part of that has to do with uh some of their debt extinguishment and the gain that they realized because of their debt extinguishment uh so they were actually if you remove this losing money from their operations at the end of 2023 and they're actually making about 69 cents in a month period which isn't bad because it means they're making some money again which is great as far as their valuation well this is something that a lot of people have different opinions on look at it this way if you take carvana as a company trading for $198 a share with $1.37 of earnings per share expected for Q4 you know ending December 31st which is already over they're trading for about 144 times earnings In fairness though they are expected to grow earnings in excess of 70% per year for the next 4 years so that only puts them at about a tweg with that really high PE ratio if they could keep that growth going so who knows maybe a deep dive for carvana is in store and leave me a comment down below if that's what you're looking for as far as China it's interesting to look at this chart to see what's going on with the percentage of vehicles in production in China uh especially as a percentage of Next Generation Vehicles look at this in 2023 China produced over 33% of all Next Generation which would be hybrid or battery electric vehicles in the world and this number is skyrocketing I would guess that if it weren't for restrictions on importing Chinese vehicles into America we' probably all be driving Chinese vehicles then a real estate question came up so on on Reddit somebody posted the following we need to sell our house that we bought less than 2 years ago that's always a bad idea the selling costs alone to sell your house are insane I don't recommend this we needed to sell our house that we bought less than 2 years ago we are looking at a loss of around $22,000 with where the market is right now in Austin so honestly their loss will probably be greater than this once they start getting hit with requests for repairs vacancy moving cost Furniture cost repairs some needs a roof replacement honestly they'll probably lose somewhere around 50 Grand how devastating is this we were first-time home buyers and admittedly didn't quite know what we were doing have any of you taking a taken a loss like this we could rent it out however the rent wouldn't cover the mortgage we would be at a loss of about $3600 over the year if we rented it out and then sold it next year we would probably be at less of a loss however it could take a while to sell and I'm not sure I want to gamble having two mortgages at once any thoughts or advice all right look here's the the answer Rachel silver first I don't know what your personal income situation is but if yall can afford the $3,600 a month in my opinion consider this $3600 a month an investment into the property because frankly you're probably paying down more than this in principle every single year if you're paying down $500 a month in principal on your loan you're probably paying down $6,000 off of your loan every single year and you're only putting $3,600 into it so you're actually up you're just rearranging where your money is in the house piggy bank or in your savings account piggy bank or I don't know in your sock drawer or wherever you keep your extra cash the downside of selling it now is frankly your loss is going to be a lot higher than this again I expect it's going to be $50,000 but let's just say your loss is $222,000 well divide $22,000 which some of this you've already lost because of equity uh potentially but it could also just represent the selling cost 2 and 1 half% to One agent you know maybe 1% if you hire a discount agent yourself but then you still got 1% for escort title you still got to pay uh for repairs and vacancy and transition cost you're going to be spending somewhere around 6 to 8% to sell your house that's probably where most of this loss is so if you kept it you're probably at zero which is good but if you sell it let's just say it's 22k well divide that by 3600 it would take you 6 years of paying 36 $600 to get to a $2,200 $222,000 loss so just keep it for 6 years you think it'll probably go up again in 6 years I don't know maybe not it's Austin after all what happened in Austin Well Austin is an easy place to build one of the reasons why my real estate company house Haack did not buy in Texas specifically in Austin is because Austin was a covid Boom Town Co boom toown where everybody moved to because of the freedom away from mask mandates and you know America work from home whatever it's also very easy to build so when the population shot up during Co a lot of people got into speculating on building in Texas and now you have an excess of Supply because now since it takes two to three years to get that construction to come online you basically had a bunch of people come in prices shot up now you don't have a bunch of people coming in but Supply real estate supply has shot up because all that building is coming online so now this mismatch is leading prices to fall could it keep going of course in my opinion keep it forget about it you got a built-in 30-year fix trate mortgage and if you got it two years ago honestly you probably got a pretty good rate on the interest rate as well my guesses they have an interest rate of under 4% Goldman Sachs suggests that real estate prices are roughly flat year over-year with uh inventory continuing to moderate this is now Nationwide rather than just Texas they see an uptake in real estate activity coming as perspective buyers move off of the sidelines post the election personally I've only seen this in the higher end Market not so much in the lower-end market because the lower end Market still can't afford to buy a damn home it's also cheaper to rent right now and recover from hurricanes in the Southeast existing for sale Supply was 23% below November of 2019 so still low Supply leading prices to rise 4% year-over-year uh which I I guess they somewhat consider roughly flat but anyway new single family home sales were 14% above the 2015 to 19 average up 2% year-over year that's new construction so you're getting a lot more new construction uh rather than this existing Supply which is below that's in part due to interest rate lock in this is in part due to accelerated new construction thanks of course to the pandemic then we get into quiet layoffs apparently JP Morgan is expecting to force everybody back to work 5 days a week people basically say this is a way of quietly trying to fire people without openly firing people it's a quiet way of doing layoffs you also had uh I think it was oh what was his name you had a big set of layoffs this morning at um Ray Delio's firm that's right Bridgewater Bridgewater layoffs uh that was a little bit of surprise uh that came as a bit of a surprise to me Bridgewater Capital cut 7% of its staff in an effort to remain Nimble I mean to me that's just a colloquialism for saying yeah we want to have money available when things change in the marketplace you're cutting about 90 employees said the person this hasn't been publicly announced yet the firm whose headcount is now going back to 2023 levels will continue hiring selectively blah blah blah they're focused on their goals blahy blahy blahy blahy let's be real the companies want more money in their bottom line so in the event that the market tanks they have money to go shopping now here's an interesting one there's a meme stock ticker RR that's been rocketing over the last 6 weeks it's basically 10x over the last 6 weeks and don't feel bad that you missed out on it frankly a lot of these have so little liquidity you couldn't really get a meaningful amount of buying done in them anyway but what's really interesting is that a stock like this can 10x and then when you look at their latest SEC filing they tell you hey sorry we're going to be late on filing our uh annual report uh part of the reason is we expect a 52% decrease in revenues and our margins are down 69% compared to last year but don't worry it's because we're getting into robots as a service jeez man kills me Donald Trump made an announcement today suggesting that a Dubai based developer uh demac properties will invest $20 billion in the United States the individual from the company actually came up and spoke with Donald Trump uh just basically said a few words they said that uh they're a luxury property Builder they've delivered 45,000 units they've got another 45k coming they're in 10 countries for data centers and they're going to build data centers in the US they also say that they've been waiting for 4 years to invest in the US because they didn't want to invest during the Biden Administration big slam on the Biden Administration but anyway Donald Trump says if you invest a billion dollars or more maybe less we'll push you through the environmental process sometimes people are held up 12 to 14 years we'll make sure to push you through the environmental process I will also reverse Biden's ban on offshore drilling immediately we're going to drill baby drill all right you get the idea uh Donald Trump then went on to talk about some other priorities like we'll end counting ballots at 10 p.m.
on Election night some states do take like 12 days to count like Arizona California is another one that takes a while to count he says we'll rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America and there's talk about Donald Trump trying to take control of the Panama Canal or Greenland potentially using the military in the event that quote he has to or I guess the quote was he may have to which was kind of interesting because it's just not something that was on anybody's radar and this is kind of classic for Donald Trump is take things that were on nobody's radar and they go oh yeah we're going to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal and we're going to rename the Gulf of Mexico hm Greenland by the way uh Is Well about 2third of its government budget is funded by Denmark so Denmark and Greenland say that Greenland is not for sale the Kingman Kingdom of Denmark wants Greenland but Donald Trump says if Denmark doesn't agree with the Takeover then he'll issue very very high tariffs on them okay I I still don't understand the full scope of all of this so we're just going to sort of table that for right now because a lot of things are said very often and usually they're just all part of a big negotiation Justin Trudeau also said that becoming the 51st state of the United States has a snowballs chance what does he know though he's resigning soon Jack Smith has also been preparing to file a final report on Donald Trump basically putting together everything and all the evidence or whatever that they have against Donald Trump however Donald Trump is arguing this isn't fair and that this is just an improper new indictment of Donald Trump some people reviewing the report say it contains false accusations and so a judge has actually today blocked the release while an appeals court evaluates what's going on anthropic plans to raise $2 billion at a $60 billion valuation at the same time as open AI announces they're still losing money hand over fist and then of course when we look at the famous lines the lines the lines the lines what do we see at the lines we see that Tesla today lost the very important 414 line we were expecting to come for a retest and we did retest that line over here remember you can get my trade and Trend alerts Trend alerts very important so that way during times that I'm not trading if I still see something very desirable or something that I think is desirable I'll still send you a trend alert that I see you could get those in the trumponomics course for any of the courses over at M kevin.com but look at that rejection perfectly on my line on the one minute chart and if you zoom out onto the one day chart this is a pretty critical level uh in fact my next level for Tesla doesn't hit until 607 and when we lost that or failed that breakout we did retest 414 but we've now lost 414 for the second time in a row not ideal from a technical point of view for the time being short-term bearish if you look at Bitcoin you're also going to see a pretty important line get rejected very clearly here on the 1 hour and is that 102 line important here and I don't recommend uh speculating in near term rocket ships unless we can actually confirm that 102 level I think that 102 level is very very important uh okay so then we have I think there is also Nvidia I just wanted to briefly mention that Nvidia today after its CES announcement did at Market open start tanking not because of the announcement in fact it was running more because of the announcement the um 5,000 series chips AI computers bringing AI home all this really exciting I thought we were going to try to test 164 uh we ended up capping out at about 15374 and then thanks to that ISM and data we ended up selling off down to 140 now we need to hit the Daily Wealth so as usual you could get this over at mavin.com but yesterday I did send an email called failure and I wrote fail fast I said when it comes to business everybody always says do what you're passionate about let's refine that on top of things you're passionate about focus on the ones that make money with the least effort this sounds obvious but I've caught myself distracted by new businesses many times sometimes they make more money and they're worth pursuing but often business ideas take too much time lose too much money or just don't gain traction or end up losing traction after an initial boost and this is where in my sort of Daily Wealth Vision I always like to say fail fast and this isn't necessarily failing fast I call call this instead let the market decide if the market doesn't care about your product kill it move on if it's a great product and it's a great service it will make you money it might take time to build it but you'll see the trajectory it's kind of like when I became a real estate agent I mean I thought the service I was providing was really good it took me 10 months to get my first deal well close my first deal but I had upward trajectory the entire year I went from no clients to my first three clients within 30 days to eight clients by the end of the first year I only made $10,000 my first year in real estate but the second year I made just over $50,000 the third year I made over $140,000 and the year after that I broke $300,000 the year after that broke $500,000 obviously the trajectory of me selling real estate myself and helping people learn how to buy real estate and invest in real estate was a good idea that was a sustainable idea the market was telling me yes Kevin people like the no pressure agent who's providing more value do more of this I was letting the market decide when I offered a service as a licensed contractor to my real estate contact or to my to my real estate clients I noticed the adoption wasn't that great for what it was costing me to run a Contracting staff that was the market telling me you're not getting enough demand for the infrastructure you've built out so what did I do I killed that business that doesn't make me a failure that makes me responsive to the market and the faster you do this the better and this is why in The Daily Wealth email uh I wrote do not delay the market is exceptionally good at telling you if you're on the right path or not you could use this for relationships like a boyfriend or girlfriend a dead-end job a career an education it doesn't matter listen to the market the market knows now with that I got to leave you with the regular ending which this is only the second meet Kevin report we've done so we'll make it the regular ending the dad joke of the day the dad joke of the day goes as follows I'm really worried about the calendar it's days are numbereng in CR
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