저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기적으로는 과매도 가능성이 있으나 중장기적으로는 조정 위험이 크며, 미국 증시는 추가로 10~20% 이상 하락할 가능성이 높다고 봄. 미국 증시 조정 전망 - 2018년 1월 말 고점 이후 S&P500이 약 10% 조정, 다우는 약 8.5% 하락한 상황으로 언급. - 단기적으로는 다소 과매도 상태일 수 있으나, 장기 관점에서는 과매도 수준 아님. - 2월 조정 기간 중 개인투자자는 오히려 순매수였으므로 아직 비관 심리가 충분히 확산되지 않았다고 판단. - 조정이 단순 조정이라면 추가로 10% 하락 위험이 있고, 실적이 실망을 주면 40%까지 하락할 수 있다고 경고. 하락 근거 및 리스크 - 미·중 무역전쟁 우려가 투자심리를 악화시킴. - 여러 국가의 부채 수준과 금리 상승이 부담 요인. - 2016년 2월 이후 S&P500이 1월 이전까지 3% 이상 조정 없이 직선 상승해 과열 우려. - S&P500이 25% 하락할 확률을 매우 높게(약 90%) 제시하며, 시가총액/GDP 비율이 1970년대 약 30%에서 150% 이상으로 상승한 점을 자산가격 거품 근거로 제시. - 25% 하락 시 경제에 큰 부정적 영향 가능. 장기 긍정 요인 - 과거 100년간 중앙은행 통화량 증가·신용 확대로 인플레이션 구조가 내장되어 장기적으로 주식·부동산·예술품 가격 상승 경향. - 다만 현재는 소비자물가보다 자산가격 인플레이션이 두드러짐. 인도 시장 전망 - 인도 경제는 수출 의존도가 낮아 상대적으로 안정적이며, 장기적으로 낙관적. - 그러나 인도 증시는 2016년 3월 약 23,000에서 현재 36,400 수준까지 급등해 20% 조정도 이상하지 않다고 봄. - 선거, 자본유입 과세, 인플레이션 상승이 불확실성 요인. - 미국 등 글로벌 증시 하락 시 인도도 동반 하락 불가피. - 인도 정치는 완벽하지 않으나 유럽·미국보다는 덜 불안하다고 평가, 모디 총리에 대해 우호적 언급. - 인도 종목 중 일부는 PER 45~50배로 고평가, 다른 종목은 저평가되어 상승 여력 존재. 지수보다 액티브 운용이 유리하다고 봄. 출연자 전망 - 미국 증시: 단기 조정 후에도 추가 하락 가능성 높음(중기 약세). - 인도 증시: 장기 낙관, 단기·중기 지수는 조정 가능성 존재.
다듬은 글
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is that if the market drops another 10% he could very well also drop 40% because as the market goes down the earnings will disappoint and the fundamentals will suddenly not look all that great mother what are the positive triggers or positive risk for the markets because yes growth in the u.s. is firming up but everybody's worried about the threat of a trade war it doesn't add to positive sentiment at all there what is about the level of debt that is there on the balance sheets of many countries and the US doesn't seem to be really scared about a default at all the interest rates are only going up higher there what is the good news that will take the markets higher in the long term well that's a very good question why should markets go up in the very long run I mean if you look at the last hundred years in the US or so the trend of markets has been on the upside but it's also been on the upside because there is built-in inflation in the system and the level of credit in other words debts have been rising steadily and money supply has been growing and more recently in the last 1012 years the money supply has been growing rather strongly and the expansion of central bank's balance sheet has very high so I think there are reasons for stocks to go up in the long run the way in in gave you both properties 30 years ago you would have to really make a huge mistake that these prices wouldn't have risen so the trend for real estate prices also upside and the price for art is on the upside because we live in inflationary times that inflation is a very complicated phenomenon you have sometimes inflation in commodities and sometimes you have it in consumer prices the last 20-30 years we had more inflation in consumer prices but we had very high inflation in asset prices stocks bonds commodities real estate collectibles liens and so was all this has gone off the lot in price and I think if I look back at the time when I started to work in 1970 at that time salaries were relatively high compared to assets to asset crises in other words in America as an example the market capitalization as a percent of the economy was just 30 percent now it is over 150 percent so what we have had in the world is an explosion of asset prices and now instead of the economy driving asset prices asset prices are driving the economy and I think we could have if the S&P drops say 20 25 percent then it will have a very negative impact on the economy what are you charge mock what is the chance the S&P is falling 20 25 percent what's the good news there isn't any actually you know you said inflation is creeping up where central banks have been begging for inflation but inflation really hurts countries like India which are large importers I'm still trying to see that good news I don't see much yeah but this is the point I think you asked me just now what is the probability of the market dropping 25 percent I think the probability is actually very high it may be 90 percent but we've gone up in a straight line between February 2016 and today until this January we never had more than a three percent correction in the S&P this is the longest stretch of a market going without even a 3% correction so we've gone up a lot what is the probability of it dropping 20 25 percent I think it's very high okay if the S&P is let's assume it falls 25 percent from the peak at MIT in January what does it mean for the Indian markets because India runs a large current account deficit we are already taxing capital inflows there is an election coming up usually in in markets don't connect when an election comes up but the odds seem to be against the markets going up this time in India well let's put it this way around the world pretty much everything trades around the SNP so if yes it'd be tonight is that I'm not saying it will be but if if the S&P is down 10 percent in one week the likelihood that other markets are also down is very high because fund managers today invest internationally so they see the US market going down the other markets may not have gone down yet so they start selling there to rebalance their portfolios the same for index funds and as I said before in earlier interviews I am optimistic about India in the long run but there are some conditions have that have to be met we need less bureaucracy we need more say institutionalized government that is more professional but that is also the case in the u.s.
so I'd say everything considered I'm still quite optimistic about India but I'm not optimistic about the stock market because the stock market in 2016 was below 23,000 at the March low and now we went to 36,000 400 and I think a 20% correction would not be unusual so would you say the Indian stock markets are more vulnerable than the emerging market peers because of local conditions because of taxing capital coming into the market because of rising inflation because of the risk surrounding the elections are they more vulnerable than their peers not really I mean I think the Indian economy is relatively stable economy that does not depend all that much on exports not export dependent like Taiwan South Korea and to some extent Singapore Hong Kong but I think the problem for India is if other markets go down it will also be tracked down number two the political situation as you know I don't think so bad but it's not brilliant either mr.
Modi who I kind of admire certainly everything is relative in this world his intellect is a little bit superior to what we find in the u.s. among politicians but the perception among foreign large investors is that the political situation in India still unstable maybe but maybe less than in Europe and in the u.s.
so as I said relatively speaking I'm quite optimistic about India but obviously if the markets around the region and in the world go down then India will also be tracked down and that the second point I'd like to make the Indian stock market consists of say a large number of shares I don't know 5,000 or 10,000 shares and some of these shares of they're expensive they sell for 45 50 times earnings I don't think that these stocks have not upside potential other stocks they are reasonably priced they have a lot of upside potential so I think that active manager stop specific he will do okay I don't think the index will do very well because the index is heavily weighted with this high market cap weighted stops all right mark many thanks for joining us and see business thank you
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